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As Venizelos Leaves For Brussels, There Is No Deal

Tyler Durden's picture




 

6 am in Greece and Venizelos is about to board a plane to Brussels. According to The Guardian a deal was going to be done for sure before his take off. You know - any minute now... The Guardian was wrong. From Bloomberg:

  • VENIZELOS SAYS TIME OF RESPONSIBILITY FOR ALL
  • VENIZELOS SAYS STILL ISSUES THAT MUST BE DETERMINED
  • VENIZELOS SAYS ALL ISSUES AGREED EXCEPT FOR ONE

And here it is:

  • VENIZELOS SAYS HOPES EUROGROUP WILL TAKE POSITIVE DECISION

Because hope is just so much more efficient than prayer when it comes to strategic planning for one's insolvent population.

That's it.

  • VENIZELOS ENDS STATEMENTS TO REPORTERS IN ATHENS
 

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Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:05 | 2140555 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Booyah!

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:11 | 2140582 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Bullish!

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:23 | 2140623 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Deal or no deal, it does not matter, Greek people will be raped and forced into slavery by the EU bankster filth and EU plutocrats.

I am perplexed as to why they are not storming the Greek Bastille yet -- they have nothing to lose but their chains.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:59 | 2140697 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Things will get really bad there.  There is no way out of their box.  Even worse than ours.  But our day will come too.  

Best get prepared.  Gold (and all the rest) will help.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 01:15 | 2140723 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

I have sympathy for the Greek people but someone did borrow a large chunk and used them as a reference....co-signer actually. And we also must realize that those nice pensions they have been getting were not earned but gifted via a political process...they were not complaining then. 

It is time for the world's bar tab to be paid and just because all you have to show is a hangover...well it still must be paid. Perhaps there is a new world coming in which lenders will use more caution than trusting politicians. At the end of the day we have pensioners trusting bankers to lend their money to solid parties....they got screwed...we have pensioners who got their pensions in negotiations with politicians who promised too much because they like the feelling (and benfits) of giving away too much....these pensioners get screwed too. The middlemen with nothing at risk are all fine, those who trusted got screwed....not a fair world and trust will not return soon, the trust that most of the world depends upon to run efficiently....glad I'm old....

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 06:05 | 2140912 Acet
Acet's picture

Or we as a society can blame it all on the bankers (who did got most of the personal gains) and crucify them (though not literally).

I bet that if the system publicly destroyed the parasites it would go a long way to restore trust in society and societal cohesion.

 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 06:27 | 2140919 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Of course it would - Nuremberg was a trial held by the British and Americans to prevent Stalin from wholesale execution of the 50,000 strong German Officer Corps (Katyn Mark II). Until there is crowd pressure to lynch Bankers you will not get Pecora II

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 06:50 | 2140936 Augustus
Augustus's picture

how can you believe that the bankers go most of the personal gains.  Borrowers always get 100% of the money.  Now, after enjoying spending of the principal and having repaid interest by increasing loan amounts, the borrowers want to repay nothing.  The personal gain was entirely a benefit to the borrowers and the bankers are left with the melted icecube.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 07:03 | 2140942 jomama
jomama's picture

there is that tiny stipulation as recently aptly described as the 'give a shit factor' when making said loans.

mind the one taking their cut when the loan is first paid out.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 08:50 | 2141050 Acet
Acet's picture

The Bankers (people) got their inflated salaries and bonuses for authorizing (or packaging and selling as CDs) those loans, independently of wether they were repaid or not.

They thus had all the incentive in the world to lend as much of the bank's money as they could to anybody and their dog and damn the consequences. They would get paid long before even those loans extended to the worse of borrowers would blow up.

Each banker could have made the Ethical and Moral decision of not damning the bank (and ultimatelly society) on the long term to maximizing personal profit - the vast majority made the decision to go ahead and maximizing personal profit (and damn the consequences for others) and in fact those that didn't were the ones that left that industry, either because they were kicked out or out of disgust.

Banks didn't do anything, people did it. And of all the participants in this charade, the people that got the biggest gains were those in the banks setting the rules that allowed all sort of loans to shaddy borrowers, those authorizing those loans and those working in packaging and selling derivatives on those loans. Even the politicians in the likes of Greece didn't capture anywhere near as big a slice of that torrent of money as bank CEOs and fixed income traders did.

And this is just the loans bit, let's not forget all those people getting paid huge bonuses for essentially passing back and forth between banks artificial financial instrument whose book value had nothing to do with real value, essentially being paid for decieving shareholders by giving ever increasing nominal values in the bank's accounts to "assets" that were little more than vapour.

Now, you can say that these people didn't knew what they were doing (in which case they were at the very least incompetent, possibly guilty of misrepresenting themselves) or that they did foresaw the consequenses of their actions, in which case they were selfish and malicious.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 07:06 | 2140943 barkingbill
barkingbill's picture

but that's it though isn't it. the lenders won't use more caution in future unless they lose something. the lenders are protected. the borrowers will be punished. 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 07:27 | 2140954 spankfish
spankfish's picture

"It is time for the world's bar tab to be paid and just because all you have to show is a hangover...well it still must be paid.It is time for the world's bar tab to be paid and just because all you have to show is a hangover...well it still must be paid."

 

Me thinks they will dine and dash.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 06:01 | 2140910 ilion
ilion's picture

"As Venizelos Leaves For Brussels, There Is No Deal"

Why fly to Brussels, for once he could fly over his own country and see how the banksters are destroying it as we speak. Of course, why would he care, he has his paycheck already on his way. Pathetic.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 05:58 | 2140909 ilion
ilion's picture

It seems that ArmadaMarkets nailed it again yesterday evening with their EUR/USD call for today. Right about WTI too. Unbelievable. Some Nostradamus working there? http://bit.ly/zD4RnE

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 06:45 | 2140933 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

I tried to check out that Armada Markets link, but my antivirus software went crazy. Looks like Armada Markets is full of malware.

Armada Markets' Malware website appears to be an elaborate scam used to steal as many credit card and bank account numbers and other personal information as possible.

I would advise everyone to ignore those shady obfuscated links. Whenever I hear Armada Markets, I will instantly think of malware and credit card scam artists.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 08:00 | 2140972 ilion
ilion's picture

Are you accessing it from North Korea? Maybe that's the problem.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 07:35 | 2140959 Sharks with las...
Sharks with laser beams's picture

Rumor on the street is that Venizelos has accumulated a large EURUSD buy position at Armada Markets. If they agree on at least anything then euro will be jumping higher as all fools will be buying.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 07:37 | 2140961 Sharks with las...
Sharks with laser beams's picture

Venizelos will get some of this Iran's gold that Europe just confiscated. When the gold is handed over in Brussels the Venizelos will accept all terms for his fellow citizens. The only thing is that he will be much richer.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 09:17 | 2141125 Oztralian
Oztralian's picture

wrong again

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:05 | 2140556 Tom Servo
Tom Servo's picture

HOPES Bitchez!

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:07 | 2140562 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Greek hope rally number 458 on the way. Buy everything in sight.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:07 | 2140564 Stack Trace
Stack Trace's picture

This farce needs to end. Please may THE GREAT RESET commence.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:16 | 2140608 lewy14
lewy14's picture

I shudder to think what it will take to get the VIX over 40 now.

"Fears" won't work. Things will have to happen. Bad things.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 01:25 | 2140743 Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

And like magic, the rigged market is about to go green.  Nothing is bearish, nothing.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 03:33 | 2140898 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

There will be absolutely nothing that can drive this market down. Ben has his reputation staked on the wealth effect. He will print , destroy the dollar, and prop this market up on the backs of the poor. He will buy the whole fucking market if he has too, but it will not go down.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 08:55 | 2141066 BeerBrewer09
BeerBrewer09's picture

Until people scramble for physical ANYTHING.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 01:48 | 2140786 wandstrasse
wandstrasse's picture

I had a secret insider view into the script:

1) grow the tension so as many people envision world collapse. 

2) in the very last possible moment steps in a representative (prefeably a poltician puppet) of reptilian elite bankers to bring the worst possible 'solution' for the population - but this solution looks good compared to world collapse which was envisioned by all.

I AM BORED BEYOND BELIEF!!!!

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 01:53 | 2140798 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Sounds like what JP Morgan did many years ago (aka puppet to the Roth*childs).  1920s before the 1929 crash?  

 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:07 | 2140565 dolph9
dolph9's picture

I'm going to sell my gold and silver tomorrow, and buy Greek and U.S. debt!

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:10 | 2140579 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

That's the spirit!

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:13 | 2140593 Stack Trace
Stack Trace's picture

I will give you my greek debt for your worthless gold. You don't want it because the FBI will think you are a terrowist (think elmer fudd)

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:17 | 2140609 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

A toowist? 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:16 | 2140611 Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

Well yes.  Gold and silver aren't backed by anything, while on the other hand, the US debt and Greek debt are backed by the full faith and credit of their peoples.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 02:00 | 2140810 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

I suggest you halve whatever it is you are drinking, smoking, injecting and sniffing.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 03:41 | 2140906 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

You too cause maybe then you will understand sarcasm when you read it

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 02:28 | 2140848 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

In a sense, U.S. debt is backed with something - the implied future labor and output of its people. That's what the Greek austerity measures and agreements are all about too. Signing up the Greek people for 100 years of debt servitude to pay off loans they didn't take out.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 03:07 | 2140883 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

But, but, but the lady reporter said that gold is not backed by anything.

Hysterical laughing by most readers here to commence at the 23 second mark.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCHCf8qY4so

 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 07:10 | 2140945 Sanksion
Sanksion's picture

megalol

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 07:31 | 2140955 spankfish
spankfish's picture

... and the Greek riot dog ;)

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 01:56 | 2140803 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

It doesn't sound like you really have any gold or silver.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:08 | 2140569 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

What's the one issue they can't agree on?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:09 | 2140574 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Who is paying for the ho's now?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:12 | 2140592 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

If you have to ask, it means you are.  Don't feel bad, we're all paying too.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:23 | 2140620 newengland
newengland's picture

Randall,

The Greek 'leaders' refuse to agree on the terms of pension cuts, apparently.

No surpise, given their age. Women and children last, as the macho men line their own lifeboats.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:12 | 2140570 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

See this shit? 

Wonder why traders have dancing pigs and dead sharks floating in oversized aquariums? 

You have to be a sociopath to trade this. 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:33 | 2140649 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

Whoa, whoa, whoa.  No one ever informed me there were dancing pigs.  Sign me up right away!

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:56 | 2140692 bob_dabolina
Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:09 | 2140576 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

You know, the ISDA (the group, I think, supervising the derivatives business) could just say that all CDs (etc.) are all null and void now, and those who paid money for them should get their money back, "status quo pro ante" and just leave at that.

Then it's default, bitchez, and we'll just get it over with.

Or declare a Jubilee!

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:15 | 2140604 Stack Trace
Stack Trace's picture

Where will the ISDA get even that smaller sum of money? The money is spent.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:36 | 2140651 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

What was last count, $700 trillion in CDS value around the world?  Not sure how much CDS protection costs, but I'm figuring it's a pretty good number.  And all that money that was made on selling CDS is no doubt 100x leveraged in other shit now.  Clusterfuck is a good word.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 08:54 | 2141058 chindit13
chindit13's picture

I believe you are confusing derivatives with CDSs.  Derivatives cover everything from single name OTC equity options to interest rates swaps and all sorts of things in between.  CDSs are essentially OTC put options on single name bonds, albeit with a referee who has a flexible rule book and quite often skin in the game.  The ISDA rules on what constitutes a "default event" obligating the writer (premium collector) of the CDS to pay up, or to rule against an event (even if it is obvious that it is an event) and save the premium collector from having to pay.  The ISDA has a number of committees that have jurisdiction over various parts of the world, though most committees have great overlap as to its members.  Committees (the one with European responsibility is called the EMEA) are composed of (mostly) major banks and investment banks (the usual suspects), plus a few large hedge funds (DE Shaw, Citadel) and the occasional serial litigator (Elliott).

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:36 | 2140653 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

All of the Certificates of Deposit?

;)

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:55 | 2140687 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Ah, indeed, my mistake; CDSs would be correct.

Doh!

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:09 | 2140577 Banksters
Banksters's picture

Former VP of the ECB papademos is a PIECE OF FUCKING SHIT.   

 

DEMOCRACY MY ASS.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:11 | 2140583 Cdad
Cdad's picture

I don't know Tyler...look, we had many meetings today, and they all concluded on "hope."  What more could you ask for?  Also, the Greek citizens did not burn down any buildings today despite their political leaders' best attempts to sell them into debt slavery for a good price.

Victory!  All around!  Cue all the other broke rally monkeys, and lets see if we can get lift off...with a 15 year low in NYSE volume this time.

Woot!

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:11 | 2140587 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Markets don't care

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:13 | 2140596 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1 for avatar!

Next time I go to a function with those adhesive nametags, I am going to write that!

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:12 | 2140589 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Time for some blues.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NWwSvqo1TIw

Makes it all just a bit better.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:13 | 2140597 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Take the football and go home.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:14 | 2140598 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

 

 

Let's cut to the chase, what the fuck is the issue?

VENIZELOS SAYS ALL ISSUES AGREED EXCEPT FOR ONE

My pillow is calling my name. No time to look up what taxpayer perk or personal financial haircut surrounds this one issue.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 22:15 | 2144414 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

VENIZELOS SAYS ALL ISSUES AGREED EXCEPT FOR ONE

Who's got the bux to pay for it?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:14 | 2140599 newengland
newengland's picture

I think the EUSSR will let Greece burn, pour les encourager les autres, rather than admit their failings.

Recall that the architects of the euro used politics to sell a 'common market', and take all the little PIIGS to market for slaughter.

The euro, barely a decade old, soon to be seen as the world's most efficient culling machine, for the profit of the globalist central bank cartel, and its career politicians.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:32 | 2140639 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Merkle saiid the other day that the UK should join the EU.  You know why?  Becaue the UK owns all the Greek debt.  Merkle called the UKs bluff.

Of course it likely has been rehypothecated to other places.  Has anyone checked MF Global's books for Greek debt lately?  No? 

Fair enough.  Carry on....

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 06:24 | 2140917 Byte Me
Byte Me's picture

...L H

The UK "joined the EU" in 1973...

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:36 | 2140654 Wipeout2097
Wipeout2097's picture

Do you belong to an Eurozone country?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:19 | 2140613 mammoth mo
mammoth mo's picture

 

The one issue left - how can we keep fooling people that we are doing something when all we do is meet and greet.

The market's have rallied strongly.  How can we keep it going?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:21 | 2140617 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Damn, almost!  It's ok, it'll get done next week....

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:21 | 2140615 AndrewJackson
AndrewJackson's picture

So when is the final final final deadline for greece? March? End of February? I mean the date when we can say with absolute certainty that the can kicking exercise with Greece is finally over. Its like we are all in groundhog day with bill muray right now.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:24 | 2140625 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Greece has to roll $16 bill March 20th.  They will need the loan to be issued a few weeks before then so it can be finalized and signed off by all parties.  It is getting down to the wire, which makes sense, considering that if Greece gets a bailout, Portugal will askk for one, and then Ireland will ask for one, and then Spain will askk for one, and then Italy will....

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 02:32 | 2140855 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

The "Greek Tragedy" is one of the most boring stories I can remember. It's like those soap opera plotlines that never seem to get resolved, just one cliffhanger after another. I don't even read most of the stories anymore. Just wake me up when some sort of conclusion is reached.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:27 | 2140635 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Just pick out a date and if that one doesn't work....oh well...we'll just move it up a few days .

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:23 | 2140622 Maxter
Maxter's picture

Hope can get you a nobel peace price and a presidency.  This look pretty efficient to me.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:25 | 2140626 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Breaking: Troika proposes massive Greco-DisneyWorld to be built outside Athens as solution to crisis. Unemployed Greeks would have jobs as picturesque natives serving native food and performing native acts. 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 01:10 | 2140716 Ras Bongo
Ras Bongo's picture

Hehe

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 01:19 | 2140732 Zgangsta
Zgangsta's picture

Just make the entire country a free-capitalism theme park, where the natives will, for the right price, do anything and everything your heart desires.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 02:32 | 2140856 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

You mean wrestling and throwing the discus while nude?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 06:28 | 2140921 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

how about cathing the discus while nude? For the right price of course.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:25 | 2140628 mammoth mo
mammoth mo's picture

Greece as of now is the golden goose.  If you had told me back in August that the biggest mover of the Dow would be Greece I would have agreed with you if you were saying it was going down.  The fact that the closer Greece comes to default the better the market does is something left for the honest history books that we hope someone will write.  For now, enjoy act 847 of the great tease. 

Predictions for tomorrow -  a deal will be announced but it will not really be a deal.   Instead it will be an agreement on a deal that will be signed...Monday, that will stretch until Wednesday when that agreement will break down and be rescued next Friday when an agreement on a deal will be announced that will be signed Monday. 

The only thing that changes is the dow going up higher and higher from where it was.  If I was a bull, I'd buy Greece flowers.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:25 | 2140630 Rogier
Rogier's picture

I'd love to see a vola spike up to 90, but we all know how this will play out: EU finance ministers WILL accomodate Greece once again. Heck, they say they'll make the effort, so why not take their word for it this time? <sarc off>

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:26 | 2140633 chump666
chump666's picture

Payback.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:28 | 2140636 floydian slip
floydian slip's picture

My Big Fat Greek Baby needs a new pair of shoes.

 

 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:33 | 2140650 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

In this sad new world of desperate centrally planned economies almost everywhere, it’s no longer achievement, innovation, or performance which gets rewarded. The new winners are those with enough power and/or stamina to simply sit idle and wait for someone else to blink first.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:38 | 2140658 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

what part of politicians don't have any fucking money do we not understand

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:41 | 2140664 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

What's really ridiculous to me is that TVIX hit a 52 week low this week and the entire world is about to go up in flames.  Come on, volatility- daddy needs to stock up on cat food!  That's what we'll be eating after SHTF, right?  What tastes better, Purina or Iams?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:43 | 2140670 mammoth mo
mammoth mo's picture

In a sane market you would be correct.

 

Insanity is the play at hand so far.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:50 | 2140680 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

This is not a sane market.

This is not an insane market.

This is not a market.

This is a centrally controlled fraud disguised as a market.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 06:45 | 2140932 falak pema
falak pema's picture

well said, banksta ramp up to nowhere except more central control.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 01:07 | 2140712 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

Maybe they can do a product similar to the VIX that's an insanity index.  Then somebody can make a triple levered ETN product.  I would be all in on that shit.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 01:42 | 2140780 mammoth mo
mammoth mo's picture

We could call it the voodoo index.  When you know the market is not trading on any fundamentals.

 

Today the voodoo index hit an all time high as Greece once again almost has a deal.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:55 | 2140689 battlestargalactica
battlestargalactica's picture

Iams.

And I thought the same damn thing about VIX, TVIX, etc... Instead, it's nothing but sunshine and goddamn roses and freaking purple unicorns.

One shiny Silver Maple Leaf says Thomas Jefferson is in heaven looking down on this $hitstorm waiting to happen yelling, "Time for that tree trimming I talked about!"

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 03:39 | 2140903 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

Slave owners in heaven? Let me guess, you're a white Libertarian.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:59 | 2140696 chump666
chump666's picture

that's a bearish sign.  a divergence against the SPX/DOW on a 2yr chart, volatility spikes after the VIX fell under 17.  Meaning?   something big is brewing and it will feel like the end of the world.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 01:05 | 2140708 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

Well let's get this fucking party going already.  Cat food ain't getting any cheaper.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 01:12 | 2140719 chump666
chump666's picture

I hear ya...I am on cans of beans here.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 01:09 | 2140714 chump666
chump666's picture

July 1st 2011 low at 15 on the TVIX.

tight

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 01:26 | 2140747 HyperLazy
HyperLazy's picture

"... something big is brewing and it will feel like the end of the world"

Oh how deliciously tantalizing! I feel faint with pleasure, or maybe its this awful head cold.. *sneezing fit*

Right well I have been scrutinizing the VIX and its associated products for the past month and a half. Seen a fair number of moves that made me wonder what the hell was going on. I pulled my long hopium positions last friday I think it was. IDK, I am working third shift and weekends now so dates and times are kinda fuzzy. Regardless, I admit, I picked up some TVIX earlier this week at 14. Wouldn't mind seeing it beat down to eleven or eight and pick up some more for the lulz. Honestly, for a while it seemed like TVIX was being massively under bid along with a lot of folks panicking out of it...

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 01:41 | 2140775 chump666
chump666's picture

Well I hope you live large, you bought at premium. Enjoy.

This is a true contrarian market at the moment, what with the HFTs sucking every greedy a-hole in.  Did you see the panic in Asia with China CPI?  Nice telling sign that the market is jittery, if HFTs cut momo trades and go short.... Yeah, for a lot of suckers, it will feel like the end of the world.   

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 02:40 | 2140865 HyperLazy
HyperLazy's picture

I don't really live at all haha - I just threw a thousand bux into the market last year and turned it into 6G based on the critical perspective that is offered here at ZH. All those years I invested under the notion of fundamentals... BAH! Shoulda been thinkin like a corrupt banker this whole time. Really tho I got no money, I got no gold, got no guns or dirt under my feet. All I got is a car, precision tool making skills and X-WIVES that keep me poor. I heard that Mars needs women a while back; take my X-WIVES PLEAZZZE!

As far as the TVIX is concerned, its just something to play with. Don't really care which way it goes. At my age and sour life experience, money isn't worth a damn thing. Dont do what I do for investing advice, except - DONT GET MARRIED!

Yeah I caught the CPI revelation. Frickn hilarious. I bet those HFT programmers are sitting on their terminals with digital reins on those algos, trying to keep them from flipping over to short mode. LOL

 

 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 01:44 | 2140783 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

How fast does TVIX decay? I've heard you don't want to buy and hold those levered ETFs. Can someone fill me in?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 02:03 | 2140815 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

It can certainly decay some more, but it's near a 52-week low at this point, and I don't mind holding it for a while.  It may go down more, but at some point it's going to be over 50, 80, or even 100 again.  At least that's my theory.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 03:09 | 2140884 HyperLazy
HyperLazy's picture

TVIX is an ETN, not sure if it has the same structure as the ETNs VXX, VXZ. Too lazy to look up the TVIX prospectus right now. Decay I don't worry about so much. I have held ETFs for a couple weeks, don't really care. My only concern with these derivative products, as an example, quoting my immaculate self:

"Barclays is the instutition behind VXX and VXZ. These are non-secured ETN instruments. Don't get caught holding the bag."

Meaning if the institution fronting the products falls into its own black hole, they will not honor their instrument. But, like I mentioned, not sure if TVIX is similar to VXX/VXZ in structure etc...

Besides all that, TVIX is a capricious and caustic thingamabobber. The markets could soar upwards another 3000% with all the flotsam and jetsam of liquidity out there and crush VIX, VXX and TVIX down to .03, so buyer beware I reckon.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 02:11 | 2140669 slewie the pi-rat
Thu, 02/09/2012 - 00:46 | 2140674 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

I agree the "deal" looks flimsey...but the Euro is acting like it wants to believe there is one.  +50 pips in the last hour or so.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 01:00 | 2140699 janxeh
janxeh's picture

A country imploding is bullish.

Growth is bearish.

Welcome to the new market.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 01:07 | 2140710 Dead Canary
Dead Canary's picture

Greece:        "We agree to empty promises of 10%"

Euro-peons:  "We will only except empty promises of 20%"

The voice of reason:   "Lets split the diff and call it 15%"

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 01:14 | 2140721 adr
adr's picture

The end of the world is uber-bullish, if you aren't going to live past tomorrow you'll blow all your money today!!! Last year any Greek haircut was going to crash the market, now a haircut less than 70% is going to crash the market??? At this rate malls wil be empty, stores will be bankrupt, yet the Dow will go to 20k. Just the hope of the future will be enough for the bulls to rally. At dinner a family member remarked about how well the stock market was doing. I said, "The last two times it got this high it crashed a few months later, what is different this time? Othr than record unemployment, record forclosures, record government income transfers, and a modern age record low in the labor participation rate. Yep I say that is a great enviroment for new stock records."

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 01:15 | 2140725 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Isn't this scenario princed in?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 01:20 | 2140733 props2009
props2009's picture

will you eat your words if a deal is actually done!!! 

 

Yes a default is what will help Greece but do you know what happens if a greece deal does not happen? Think about it. There will be wars and there will major strife in the world. Greece needs to be given time (5-7 years to correct) and therefore we must all wish that there is a deal. Rather than be sadist and actually gleeing in the background about a potential failure, lets hope and may be even write a few things about how a deal should happen for all of us.....Yes it will also unfortunately help the Investment banks and the banks who underwrite but just cause they should not be benefitting from this, we cannot wish bad for Greece and rest of leveraged countries. .....Look at Argentina on what happens if there is no deal.!!!! 10 years and they are still struggling...

 

 

Anways trading guys, here is the analysis on YEN. 450 pips up in 24 hours after teh breakout yesterday

http://capital3x.com/think-tank/risk-train-gets-new-engines/

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 01:45 | 2140784 Maxter
Maxter's picture

All the deals are doing is adding more dept to the country.  There is no way Greece can recover.  So if one actualy want what's good for Greece, I think he should pray that they default now (while they are greatly indepted), instead of later (while they will be even more fucked). 

The longer you wait, the more it will hurt.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 01:21 | 2140734 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

You know, default is not the end of the universe.

Greeks would get up the next morning and breathe air.  They would have food on the shelves for a while and would eat it.  Their deficit would go to zero instantly and cause a lot of people to lose their jobs, but the Red Cross would arrive and those people would not starve.

No one would starve.

Then in a year or so it would occur to Greece that they have no debt service payments.  They have an influx of charitable food and no one has starved.  They are actually trying to live life and re-establish society.

But of course the EU can't let them default and be seen to have escaped death.  If that happened the other PIGS would follow Greece.  The EU might actually blockade Greece so food can't get in.  Now that would be interesting.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 01:57 | 2140799 Diamond_Dave
Diamond_Dave's picture

l agree default would not end the universe, and would help destroy some capital which would help us all (or most of us) on zerohedge, no?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 01:23 | 2140736 Rattling Bones
Rattling Bones's picture

I think they keep this going because they like having meetings for the free lunches.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 01:37 | 2140766 caerus
caerus's picture

there's an old saying in tennessee...i know it's in texas, probably in tennessee...that says, fool me once, shame on...shame on you...fool me...you can't get fooled again

thanks again dubya

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 01:40 | 2140774 Tic tock
Tic tock's picture

What is truly amazing is that the Irish have not openly revolted, nothing like the Greeks. Some purport that Greece is 'behind' on Economic Development when it is fairly young citizens who have 'braved torrential rains' to stymie their government stealing their livelihoods. The Irish suffered the English for 400 yrs, recently got some measure of liberty and then promptly had it scuttled; you'd thunk it would severely rankle, what with the 'protestant Germans' an' all (just saying), simply a strong sense of righteous indignation. I am surprised, either the English really, really pissed them off, or possibly 'modern living standards' isn't worth the effort. Either way, when you look at the way Europe and the US govern their people, you have to wonder what they imagine wealth to be? Of course their bankrupt, completely, but it's useful to remember why - massive expansion in the application of resources and phenomenal technological understanding. This is the circle being squared; skills, employment, energy, land, food, of course it's all coming to a head - it's a new paradigm: the bankers understood this - they had to make as much money as possible because the risks asociated with Change, secondary infrastructure, trends, education, were continually increasing - it's not an environment conducive to long-term paper. This is the far edge of the Structural change. If we had any integrity in Europe, they would be leading this change: instead, I think they are very afraid that no-one will love them if they don't hae a grand-sounding job title - insecurity - as for the global financial architecture - we have wars, starvation, corruption, encouraged by that architecture, to support what? -is there such a thing as terriatorial expansion? Does the US and Europe think that the rest of the world can 'accept' to live under this architecture, to hive off all its resources to the Pigs, look at what is being done to Ireland and Greece, ordinary citizens are aghast - look at the value of the Deriviatives market, where is that money supposed to come from? -the Troika says it comes from ordinary peoples' taxes!! What will the money be used for, cementing global dominance of the Western Banks - through military interventions, terms of trade, ownership of resources; a Tyranny.   

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 02:06 | 2140819 X86BSD
X86BSD's picture

Perhaps the Irish are just tired of revolting. They have been fighting for 800 years for freedom. I think they are all taking a break right now. Although I wouldn't mind if the RIRA or CIRA blew up a few hundred fucking banksters. Are you guys listening? Eire needs you! Up the RA!

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 01:57 | 2140790 caerus
caerus's picture

my big fat greek debt deal...théâtre de l'absurde...the only thing that amazes me anymore is the patience (or ignorance) of the audience

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 01:53 | 2140794 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Homework not done and he want's doughnuts?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 02:05 | 2140818 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

EUR/USD just popped past 1.33 on a huge spike.

What the fuck is going on here?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 02:07 | 2140823 X86BSD
X86BSD's picture

Take whatever you think is going on and imagine the direct opposite. See how easy that was?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 02:08 | 2140824 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Venizelos popping echo.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 02:19 | 2140840 caerus
caerus's picture

just step away from the screen

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 02:24 | 2140844 chump666
chump666's picture

HFTs.

 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 02:34 | 2140858 hyper-critical
hyper-critical's picture

Re our trader in Sydney - massive stop loss buying. Mostly hedge fund. No significant vanilla longs.

Cue the real short squeeze. I don't think London wakes up, sees the euro at or near 1.33 and says 'let's short the hell out of it' in front of an ecb meeting that could see rates kept on hold. Some will also undoubtedly think the market is pricing in a Greek deal. I think they wake up and say 'holy shit cover my ass buy it at the ask fill or kill.'

Either way, as selling begets selling, buying can beget buying.

 

 

 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 03:22 | 2140888 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

I have my doubts about any impending "short squeeze". The EUR/USD has risen nearly 600 pips in less than a month with no substantial pullback. It would seem reasonable to me that many short positions have been covered. I just can't imagine someone would have shorted at 1.2650 at set a 600 pip stop loss.

To me it looks like it's running out of steam on the climb. But then again...who the hell really knows. None of this makes any sense whatsoever so I guess anything could happen.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 06:51 | 2140937 hyper-critical
hyper-critical's picture

Again, I think it could become a de-risking trade. But as a complex systems guy, I'll be the first to say that this system is becoming increasingly unstable. Hold onto your seats - the next 10 hours could be wild...

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 07:51 | 2140965 Howdan
Howdan's picture

alien-IQ I ask myself the same question, day after day, after day.

It is sickening how rigged and manipulated these markets are!

Thanks to our friend for the explanation below- makes alot of sense actually. I'm sure big HF shorts will be wanting to cover their positions ahead of the usual "Bullshit rumour-fest circus" that we see all too regularly in Brussels, Athens and Frankfurt.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 02:08 | 2140825 Augustus
Augustus's picture

Can someone give me a real scenario for why the Euro is not dropping?  I simply cannot understand how the demand for Euro is continuing to hold this up relative to USD.  Not that I'm a USD champion, it is just that the US seems to have some can kicking space left while Euro land is at the end of the road with no where to turn the rig around.  The last blurb about the ECB selling the Greek loans to the ESFS and then let that institution take the haircut is about as nonsensical as anything I have read.  Then there is the whole issue of subordination of positions in the soverign debt payoffs so that private lenders are the only ones taking a write down is impossible to believe.  For that and many other unlisted reasons, I cannot fathom a reason that would cause an investor to prefer Euro debt or deposits.  An article explaining the surprising strength in the Euro vs. other currencies would be interesting to read.  What is supporting the flow of funds into Euro.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 03:20 | 2140887 the tower
the tower's picture

Whatever outcome, it's good for the Euro. If you didn't get it by now: the Euro will NOT collapse.

Even if only Germany would remain and calls their currency the Euro, it would be a solid currency.

And don't say that would be bad for German exports: Germany has been exporting like crazy despite a strong Euro.

You need to realize: Germany exports to people with money. High-quality and high-precision products, mostly to Asia.

 

 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 08:09 | 2140981 tim73
tim73's picture

There are real economies beneath all this banskter shit. Western Europe is quite interconnected, very similar to east coast USA. Would you like to have New Jersey Dollars, New York Pounds and Florida Pesos instead of US dollars? Having one currency is very beneficial.

Rotterdam is the main port and trucks go from there all over Eurozone. There are even over 30 000 flights all over EU per day. The old ways were stupid, having to switch currency every so often while travelling/trucking in western Europe.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 02:10 | 2140826 Augustus
Augustus's picture

NM . . .

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 02:12 | 2140829 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

It was 1.45 in September.  It's not rising particularly.  Just a bounce off a low that suggested it might not survive 6 months.

If they get a deal it will survive 9 months.

 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 08:14 | 2140992 tim73
tim73's picture

Just like you said 2002-2011, every single year. So keep on losing on your bets against Euro.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 02:13 | 2140831 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

No, no. Venizelos is doing his job simply perfectly! He couldn't do better. I am sure, he has his mandate as advisor or member of the board, located at 200 W street.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 02:31 | 2140853 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Looks like Greece got two more weeks to do the homework. More kicking the can down the road.

http://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article13858563/Troika-setzt-Griechenland-...

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 02:58 | 2140862 caerus
caerus's picture

the myth of sisyphus...real time


don't let them tell us stories...don't let them say of the man sentenced to death "he is going to pay his debt to society," but: "they are going to cut off his head." it looks like nothing...but it does make a little difference...and then there are people who prefer to look their fate in the eye...

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 03:28 | 2140891 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

there is no such thing as syphallis, there is no such thing as syphallis, there is no such thing as syphallis... oh, wait.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 03:03 | 2140880 Newager23
Newager23's picture

Did anyone see Ralph Acampora today on Blomberg? He was talking as if it were the 90s and we were in a bull market for stocks. Quote from him, "I am very, very confident...." Then something about the stock market breaking out much higher.

How can anyone be very, very confident when...

1) Israel is making menacing steps towards attacking Iran.

2) Europe cannot contain its debt problems.

3) The price of oil refuses to drop.

4) The US economy is not growing.

5) The US budget deficit is $1 trillion annually.

6) Inflation is under-reported and a quasi tax.

7) The economy is being managed and controlled by govt agencies.

8) Household debt has never been higher.

9) The airline and auto industries are about to be screwed by higher fuel costs (maybe not this year, but soon).

10) The US Federal debt is at $15 trillion and rising (doesn't this count as a problem?)

 

I guess you can ignore all of these issues and be very, very confident about the economy. I wish I could. Where do they sell those rose-colored glasses? I need some.

Newager

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 03:29 | 2140894 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

sanDiego

Robo_T has the franchise

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 03:25 | 2140889 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

a douchebag on a plane? gee, i wonder how this is going to end.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 05:56 | 2140908 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

GERMAN GOVT OFFICIAL SAYS SEES NO DECISION ON GREECE ON THURSDAY EVENING IN BRUSSELS. But dinner will be served so worth gathering.

*GREECE'S PUBLIC, PRIVATE SECTOR UNIONS TO HOLD 48-HR STRIKE

*GREEK UNIONS TO HOLD 48-HOUR STRIKE FEB. 10 AND FEB. 11

Bullish for Troika's "growth" estimates...

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 06:07 | 2140913 navy62802
navy62802's picture

NO DEAL?!? ... gasp ... Say it ain't so! haha ...

Who didn't see this one coming from 10 miles out? What's more, we also know the endgame. It's sort of like the movie Titanic. Why watch it when you know the ending?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 06:19 | 2140915 mrmic2027
mrmic2027's picture

This is like the movie Ground Hog day where the same thing happens over and over and over again

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 06:24 | 2140918 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Are we joking ? North of 200 BILLION EUROS has left Greece for warm comfortable Banks in Singapore, Hong Kong, Canada and London and is being turned into real estate. Meanwhile Greeks are asked to work like dogs and eat like dogs to pay interest on the money spent by the Kleptocracy that has taken its money to tax havens and the London Laundry. Farce does not even begin to describe this long-running production. Greece should have imposed Exchange Controls....but of course it cannot.....and if it could, it would not.

This is a pantomime for the maintenance of Politics as an Art Form of Delusional Gratification. Time to throw eggs, tomatoes and smoke-bombs to signify audience boredom

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 06:31 | 2140924 Debugas
Debugas's picture

he flees the country knowing that the deal he is about to strike with troika would make the croud in athens to tear him apart

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 06:40 | 2140928 falak pema
falak pema's picture

The new spanner in the works : OSI and ECB participation. Basically ECB has to print to infinity ...this is now looming.

If they do it for Greece they'll have to do it for the other PIIGS!

ECB/Merkel will have to address this one carefully as a ONE OFF strategy will not be bought by the others.

Snake and tail, all twisted and circular! 

The Great Siegfried line that Merkel has imposed on ECB looks like being swamped by the PIIGS, gluttons for write-offs. 

Next week's German Parliament ratification should be fun n games. Of whatever will finally be hammered out in Brussels on "compromise" to avoid greek nasty default, will have deep repercussions on all PIIGS write offs, both PSI/OSI. 

Wow, once you put your finger into that pie, you lose your arm and more! Will Eurozone carry this can beyond 2013?

Its looking more and more "Tonneau de Danaïdes".

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 06:48 | 2140934 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

German Parliament ratification should be fun n games.

 

Don't get your hopes up !

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 07:00 | 2140939 Fourth Reich
Fourth Reich's picture

French elections are April 22nd.

 

Sarko won't let Greece default until after that, a greek default before April 22nd would surely kill whatever slim chance he might have at the ballot box.

 

So expect a lot more "ultimatums" and "last minute soloutions".

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 07:02 | 2140941 onebir
onebir's picture

"The Guardian was wrong."

Grauniad can't even spell :)

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 07:08 | 2140944 PORTA PORTA
PORTA PORTA's picture

The New Loan Facility will be issued by EFSF/ESM and NOT THE COUNTRIES DIRECTLY.

ECB WILL  EXCHANEG GREEK BONDS WITH EFSF;S, EFSF WILL GIVE BONDS BACK TO GREECE ( NOT ON FACE VALUE BUT AT 75-78% )

SO this one will be the 1st Loan Facility - bailout from EFSF/ESM to a troubled country.

SO we have a Loan Contract between a Sovereign and a Private Insitution based in TAX-FREE Luxemburg.

NOBODY WONDERED WHY NOONE TALKS ABOUT THE NEW LOAN FCILITY !! BUT EVERYBODY IS TALING ABOUT THE RESTRUCTURING MEASURES AND SALARIES/PENSIONS HAIRUC ect ect... WHY IS THAT ??

pp

have a good look at this report !

http://www.scribd.com/doc/81039625/EFSF-ESM-A-Road-to-Socialism-PP

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 08:46 | 2141042 falak pema
falak pema's picture

the Oligarchy rule :

Crisis times, crisis solutions; Oligarchy Corporate Welfare Socialism...Not people's welfare socialism.

On the contrary people's dystopian oligarchy imposed barbarism! 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!