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VIC Issues Bank Of America As "Terminal Short" Thesis
Valueinvestorclub.com: the Gotham Capital controlled pseudo-secret portal where hedge fund managers everywhere would sell both their kidneys to be members of, as pitched ideas tend to move markets on a regular basis, and never to be confused with Whitney Tilson's pale immitation, has just released a new thesis on Bank of America, which is oddly comparable to ideas suggested by Zero Hedge over the years. The thesis summary is rather self-explanatory: "Bank Of America equity is worthless. CFC-related litigation is going from bad to worse, it can lead to violent erosion of shareholders' equity which. Combined with the run on the bank that has slowly begun, the $53 trillion in derivatives, the lack of sustainable competitive advantages and the depleting political influence, I believe this is a terminal short." The rest is rather self-explanatory as well. Now: how many hedge fund managers will use this herd aggregation signal and pile in on the short side?
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Fin.....and roll credits
Fuck Bank of America.
Drag Brian Moynihan into the streets, let street justice sort it out!
In those instances where BOA hasn't been fraudulent or negligent, they were always incompetent.
karma bitchez
And JPM and C and WFC and all TBTF banks and Wall Street and Pentagon and CIA
Ron Paul 2012
I can confirm the run on BAC has already started. My entire extended family has begun closing their accounts and moving to credit unions or other local commercial banks which rebate ATM access. In fact, when I was closing my account they had the insolence to ask me which credit union or bank I was moving my money to.
If you assume a 10x leverage, they just took a bath on 1 account holder....
We just moved our personal accounts and nonProfit business accounts to a local credit union. The CU rep said she is busy all day, every day with people coming over from BOA.
Me too. Moved my account to a credit union.
I asked the guy if others were opening accts. He showed me a huge stack of paperwork and said, "yeah, this is just from this week". I asked if they were all from BAC and he said its from ALL the big banks
This is in San Francisco.
Same here. Started changing my direct deposit and bill pay after reading about their recent move yesterday on Zerohedge. I know others who are doing the same since their debit card charge decision.
Any money that is pulled out now wont have to be insured by FDIC( AKA taxpayer) later right?
With only 1 caveat. If, and I mean if, there is not a cascade failure of other banks triggered by a BaC failure, and the bank any current account holder moves their money to from BoA does not fail, then no.
If, and again, I mean if, there is a cascade failure of banks tied directly or indirectly into BaC, then it is every Federal Reserve Note and FDIC insured entity for itself. YMMV.
I am long phyzz, non-existent paper, extremely short fiat. I stepped out of the game years ago and I will be staying out. Have fun weathering the collapse boys & girls (with my apologies to William Goldman, et al.)!
Taxpayers should protect themselves and get their money out of BofA. It is the patriotic thing to do.
Why hurt yourselves by dealing with an enemy of the taxpayers?
I closed my BAC accounts shortly after I opened them 3 years ago before the crash. The charged me an ATM fee on the back end of the transaction. I had never heard of that before. The ATM I used was fee free, but BAC cahrged me. What exactly did they charge me for? The electricity needed to run the computers to make the changes to my account balance? I can cerrtainly understand charging a fee to operate and maintain the actual ATM machine, but BAC didn't have to do anything.
I live in rural South Jersey, and there are at least 10, if not more, local community commercial banks, mutual savings banks, mutual holding companies and credit unions in a 10 mile radius.
Unfortuantely, credit unions do not handle business accounts or business loans, so I use a mutual holding company. Best of both worlds.
buh bye Rank of Amerrillca....
Does this mean that Linda Green might lose her job?
That would be a shame.
She is a VP.
Wish I could give you a +10 for that!!!
"Bank Of America equity is worthless."
Priceless.
Show me a European , US or UK bank that isnt worthless for shareholders. They are all terminal shorts.
Obviously, a blogger infiltrated VIC and planted this report. I'm sure Moynihan will clear it up shortly.
Few banks more richly deserve this fate.
Wrong TBTF and Obama contribution conduit BUY EM!
Shorts on Financials will soon be banned.
Put Options
Futures and options will be banned too.
Breathing in air will soon be banned as well.
They'll have to ban BAC account closures. The ultimate "short".
If you dont want to deal with BAC personel, simply write a check made payable to yourself and deposit it in an account elsewhere - EZPZ.
But Warren said it's a good company. I'm gad I'm short already. Shorting BAC and squiddy.
Hurry up and explode already. I'm freaking tired of waiting and my puts expire in 3 weeks.
Guess I'll roll over but damn, I honestly didn't think it would last this long. Oh well. Live and learn.
Short this bitch into mid-2012 just to be safe IMO.
Be careful with front month... if halted the "last know price" is used for settlement even if the stock is in reality worthless.
I shorted JPM and GS in May and laddered it out August through December. Made a killing when I got out in August. Now I am going to short the S&P but how far out do I need to ladder? That is the question.
When do the wheels on the bus go from round and round to rolling down a hill?
Of course it's an inevitability but only a fool or a liar would tell you they know when it will happen.
My initial gains went into PM's but I'm greedy. I have a bonus next friday and want to double down. Those gains will go into a giant fence around my 2 acres.
Problem is, can my money get trapped at E-Trade if there are liquidity issued?
....aaaaaaaand it's gone.
The BAC, the BAC, the BAC is on fire.
We can't let BAC go down; the Democratic convention is being held in Charlotte ... and the riot police are already trained.
Guard the branches and seize any cash withdrawals!
The sad thing is that Charlotte isn't even prepared for the Democratic convention, especially rioters.
NA NA, NA,NA,
NA NA, NA,NA,
HEY HEY HEY,
GOODBYE!
You taking any shorts before publishing on ZH, hope you do.
Trust me my friend, Tyler's been short for awhile.
Bullish
I would only buy cheap puts.
Chances the gvt will let the largest bank go belly up...I would say close to zero.
They will pump it with as much funny money as needed to keep it alive.
Yes, that was my -1. You can't expect a Super Committee looking for a feeble $1.4 Trillion in savings over the next 10 years to actually spend $53 Trillion to bail out the banks derivatives. That's what we call Too Big Too Bail. TBTB Baby.
The key will be to not let the boat tie off on a dock or the rats might get out before they burn and drown.
BAC may go under. The trick for the taxpayers is to get people to pull their FDIC-insured deposits so that .gov can't try to save the BAC counterparties by an equivalent amount. If you liked TARP in 2008 when the US was in a much more credible economic position (although not a great one), you'll love wading deeper into the mire with the (broke) FDIC taking up the slack on probably 100% of FDIC deposits. If the depositors won't do what needs to be done, the FDIC needs to step in.
Hint to FDIC: 5:01pm Hawaii time this Friday, if not sooner. Do it.
I wonder why nobody is talking about Wells Fargo. They bought that peice of crap Wachovia who bought Golden west at the top of the sub prime market. Not to mention Wachovia ran those stupid ass pick a payment loan. Surely Wells is a big short.
I think you're underestimating the income Wachovia made from their drug cartel money laundering operation; they laundered about $375 Billion over three years. Financed some jets, stuff like that. I'm thinking the cartels will show some loyalty and stay with Wells.
You may have a point there. I forgot about all of that. I mostly remember all their financial screw ups.
Wells will blow up soon enough, and when it does, given BAC's imminent demise, Charlotte (where I live) is going to be an economic crater.
Charlotte IS GOING TO BE an economic crater?
I have a cousin who moved there in 2006. Nice job in banking, bought a house, fot laid off job in 2009, got another, laid off again, out of work 1 1/2 years, house refi'ed via govt. program, a real mess.
With unemployment in the area officially at 12% and rising, I'd say Charlotte ALREADY IS an economic crater, my cousin's bad timing notwithstanding.
Talk about stuck. This gal doesn't have enough money to pay her mortgage, nor sell and move. She could sell at a huge loss, but I think she's leaning toward double default and walking away. 51 years old and royally screwed.
Sorry for your cousin, but really, you ain't seen nothing yet.
The only problem with all this terminal short stuff is that they can get as much money as they want from the Fed. I am not arguing they are worthless. I just don't see how they are going to go out of business.
B of A soon to be renamed Bank of Oligarkistan
Bank of America is well on the way to becoming just THAT -- nationalized. However, they will always backstop Scrooge McBuffett as long as there are peasants to screw over. He won't lose a dime. Can't have their white knight of investing look like a moron.
I am so sick of hearing of that old smuck. I wish he would doe us all a favor and eat a bullet.
Death in 2012?
Death in 2013?
I wonder what the over/under date is.
The Monday after my puts expire.
We are going to find out what a worthless piece of legislation Dodd-Frank brought us. Remember the unwind of the tbtf banks that can cause systemic failure nonsense. Stay tuned.
Two more short candidates:
Interesting...wonder if they're connected to BAC via CDS or other swaps and "hedges?"
Because Greece was too close?
I would consider buying a "women of BOA" calendar for my shop though...
Wow. Linda Green for Miss January, February, March, April, May, June, July...
Autographed.
Interestingly, the idea received a VERY low rating from the other members of the ValueInvestorsClub. I support the conclusion, but there wasn't much analysis in the write-up.
Seriously, took them this long to figure out alot of the major banks are actually insolvent?
Seriously, took them this long to figure out alot of the major banks are actually insolvent?
Seriously, took them this long to figure out alot of the major banks are actually insolvent?
there was just an article on SeekingAlpha about how BAC will double in the near future! Just like the rest of the news and related price action....all over the place. No one knows. The smartest guy in the room?????????????? John Thain. Didn't he get paid $200M to 'broker' the ML deal. That guy is Genius. Know some people that have worked at ML since the stock was at 90, they attended a Stan Oneal meeting where they were assured that everything was just fine. Pathetic.
Probably a buy signal...
vic wtf open (headline) access here
http://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/value2/Member/MemberHomePage
NASDAQ megaphone pattern on daily chart indicates big move ahead.
USD weekly chart remains bullish and as predicted for some time further dollar upside expected.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
no one mentions the biggest reason to short these babies. Overbuilding expansion etc. of the financial sector. Build a Walgreens at a busy intersection- kitty corner put up a new bank. Build a new tiny shopping strip- put in an Edward Jones. New grocery store -new bank branch. Open a new nail salon - new bank branch....sorry my hallucination.
Just closed our BAC accounts despite the rigorous challenges from the Branch Manager telling us why we were making a huge mistake in going to a credit union about a mile further down the road. She reluctantly closed them, told us if anything tried to process against the $0 balance, even though we closed them, we'd get hit with overcharge fees mailed to our homes and then told us to go get our bank checks from the teller. We went to the teller and she told us there'd be a $5 charge per bank check. We told her no thanks, give it to us in cash and then she said she couldn't give us that amount in cash, that it would take a few days to get it. I started getting loud in the lobby in frustration, the manager came over, overrode the $5 bank fee for the bank checks and we finally got out of BAC. Total cocksmokers.
Just closed our BAC accounts despite the rigorous challenges from the Branch Manager telling us why we were making a huge mistake in going to a credit union about a mile further down the road. She reluctantly closed them, told us if anything tried to process against the $0 balance, even though we closed them, we'd get hit with overcharge fees mailed to our homes and then told us to go get our bank checks from the teller. We went to the teller and she told us there'd be a $5 charge per bank check. We told her no thanks, give it to us in cash and then she said she couldn't give us that amount in cash, that it would take a few days to get it. I started getting loud in the lobby in frustration, the manager came over, overrode the $5 bank fee for the bank checks and we finally got out of BAC. Total cocksmokers.
Dam you have a lot of bank accounts, must be a 1%er.
I've had the same response on a $3000 withdrawl. Banks with money? Don't kid yourselves. Foolish peasants.
Bank of America: They Can Help Rick Perry! 2012 or not
The only thing that can help Rick Perry is withdrawing from the running. He is a snake, a RINO, and a liar. Take it from me, I've lived under that weasel's "governance" for 11 years. RON PAUL 2012!
Look, if BAC collapses there are two scenarios:
1. The world will come to an end. Anarchy and chaos will spread like a virus.
2. U.S. govt pulls out all stops to bail them out.
If scenario 1 occurs, you will make money on the terminal short (assuming the markets are still open). But if Scenario 2 occurs, you will get obliterated.
There's only one "terminal" trade that profits under both scenarios....LONG PHYSICAL GOLD
Long beer and booze too
Long vodka, tonic, smokes (from Indian reservation) and pipe filler. Breakfast of ex-champions.
If there is demand for the USD that cannot be filled, equities will crash and the dollar will race to the moon. Don't apply all your semen to one egg.
It is a sinister irony that we mock BAC and hope for its spectacular blowup, knowing full well such a scenario guarantees that each of us here in the US will implicity own a micro slice of this pig fucker.
What was that line in Dante's inferno about gnawing on your enemies skull for all eternity? I can live with the guilt.
They carry on that way at the bank with those closing accounts because they are trained to treat us like sheep....scared little sheep that will do anything the Bank Manager says.....its very serious complicated work and only they understand it.
I am going to reserve my opinion for right now that Brian Moynihan was the dumbest guy in the room, Me thinks they will be TARP ed. Save the banks and fuck Main Street, we make more money at war than we do collecting tax reciepts. It's the new Free Market Capitalism.
My opinion, the Gooberment will snatch up all that used toilet paer at.40 on the dollar and make those default and underwater mortgage holders renters as a rouge to "help" keep American's in their homes.
An election is comming up folks, so take a lemon and make lemonaide, Obama looks like the Hero, BAC bounces off the bottom, Warren Bufett get's paid.. all is fixed? Till it all comes unraveled again. Rinse and Repeat.
Its not Free Market at all.
It is CRONY Capitalism...at its worst.
Not saying the FED and gov't won't bail them out. They probably will, but it has nothing to do with capitalism. It is just oligarchs saving oligarchs at your expense.
Agreed, I was being sarcastic.
Tell ya what, Money 4 Nothing, I'll take that action, based on personal experience.
In July 2009, I inherited a nasty CW/BofA mortgage on my dad's home. Stopped paying the mortgage after reading all the fraudulent clauses involved, moved in, rented out my shack, started putting dough into the war chest. BofA foreclosed in March, 2010, but, after my answer, denying everything, NOTHING, NADA, not a peep (I'm in NY, and the judges here are mostly honest and have been tough on the banks). So, that's a forgotten lawsuit, for now.
In July of this year, I get a letter from BofA addressed to my father, saying they were attempting to collect a DEBT, big difference from foreclosure, and the letter included all the necessary boilerplate that debt collectors have to include, plus, they stated - in direct opposition to their position in the foreclosure - that none other than Fannie Mae holds the note.
I sent them all the requisite language to get them to prove the debt in 30 days. No response. They are officially out of the picture, but my question is: what are the chances, since they've already been paid by Fannie, that they've even bothered to tell Fannie that they can't collect the loot? How about even money or less on that.
Fannie is under the assumption that my father is still alive and owes the mortgage, but, but, but, there's MERS language, false statements and more fraud than a pair of fake tits in those documents. They bought, from BofA, a pile of worthless paper and have no recourse to foreclose, actually have no standing to foreclose, so I await their first salvo, which, if I'm guessing correctly, won't come until sometime in the next decade.
Considering they don't even know that my father died nearly 2 1/2 years ago, and BofA is so screwed up that they won't even tell them what they know, and the note? Ha, find it? So, I own a large piece of the American Dream for essentially paying the property taxes. Is this a great country or what? Makes me want to mix up a pitcher of Bloody Mary's. It is after noon here in NY.
Wow! what a story! So, I guess your really not going to get to the bottom of it untill you decide, or do sell said property? Gotta come up with the Deed and title for the sale.. No?
Good luck in either case.
The FDIC should have liquidated this POS when they had the chance.
Well now, it looks like there's a Big Ole Alligator on the end or Reggie's spear with that Giant Squid.
Too dangerous to short here imo unless Greece defaults - then of course, short everything BUT until then, the risk is to the upside. Love them or hate them, it is not our job as traders to get run over for an op-ed.
EPIC BANKING FAIL!
Jesus, I could have told you this shit.
We should begin lobbying now to let BAC fail. Save depositors and break up the bank into regional pieces that can be sold to investors.
This will be the test as to whether we've learned anything in the past three years.
Are they too big to fail? Or will they be put out of their misery?
i already closed my account with BAC over 5 years ago and it had a negative $500 balance....still brings a smile to my face
Yeah, had about -$400 in mine when I walked away from it. They're still trying to collect. LOL.
Becky Bottom Caller Quick drinking game on this. Chug every time she says the bottom is in.
Winner gets to rename her Becky Bottoms and make extranormal porn from it.
BAC is fucked up and bullshit.
But but but Cramer said BAC was bottoming on Sep 13.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/293521-cramer-s-lightning-round-bank-of-...
Very good work by the author. Yet, with price to book value being so low, I think all will be fine with BAC. If I am not mistaken BAC is trading around 50% of BV. I don't think Warren would have invested in a near bankrupt entity. I also don't see a "run on the bank." Yet, we are in trying times. Yet, I have been wrong many times before, and my analysis here has not been extensive. The 2018 BAC bonds are trading near 7%. The 2018 JPM bonds are trading at 5.9%. I don't see this as distressed.
Very good work by the author. Yet, with price to book value being so low, I think all will be fine with BAC. If I am not mistaken BAC is trading around 50% of BV. I don't think Warren would have invested in a near bankrupt entity. I also don't see a "run on the bank." Yet, we are in trying times. Yet, I have been wrong many times before, and my analysis here has not been extensive. The 2018 BAC bonds are trading near 7%. The 2018 JPM bonds are trading at 5.9%. I don't see this as distressed.