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View From The Bridge: And They Think It’s All Over…

Tyler Durden's picture


Submitted by Clive Hale from View from the Bridge

And they think it’s all over…

So Greece has been saved – is that right? Well according to ISDA (the International Swaps and Derivatives Association) a “Restructuring Credit Event has occurred with respect to the Hellenic Republic” which in the vernacular means the Greeks are bust; tell us something we don’t know! The importance of this statement is that credit default swaps (CDS) on Greek debt are now triggered and holders will have their losses made good. There were any number of scurrilous rumours that ISDA would not declare a credit event to preclude their illustrious members from paying out, but when the net downside of $3 billion needs to be shared out amongst the likes of Barclays, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, UBS, BNP Paribas and Societe Generale, then a quick whip round in the bar after close of business and the jobs a good’un.

Their meeting went on for quite a lot longer than it takes to answer the question – “Has Greece defaulted? Yes or no.” – so it is quite likely that some on the list felt they were in for more than their fair share. Whilst the net exposure is small the gross tally is $68.9 billion according to Bloomberg so there is a lot of room for “error” here. In fact one Austrian bank, a “bad” bank left holding the baby (Greek CDS amongst other toxic waste) after an earlier reconstruction has owned up to a €1.3 billion hole in its balance sheet as a result. Undoubtedly they will not be the last casualty in this chapter, but it won’t be any of the “big boys” this time around or there wouldn’t have been a “credit event” would there?

Given the shenanigans in this apology for a currency “union” you really shouldn’t be surprised to discover that there is far more Greek debt around than we thought we had given them “credit” for. On top of the sovereign debt it seems there is another $100 billion or so of paper, issued by the Athens Urban Transportation Co, the Hellenic Railway and assorted Greek banks amongst others, “guaranteed” by the Hellenic republic. Guarantees in financial circles tend to come with a pinch of scepticism, but when combined with Greek mythology they become truly “heroic” assumptions. And no one thought to mention these obligations before putting the taxpayer on the hook for the €130 billion bailout? Heaven forbid that anyone gets to see the full picture…

And what did the politicos make of this deal of the century? The Greek finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos, said that the deal had helped Greece to avoid a “nightmare scenario” and given it a “new opportunity”. Blah, blah, blah! Have another box of cream donuts before you “waste away” along with your country’s economy. Far more realistically la Merkel admitted to the Bundestag that there were “no guarantees” (there’s that word again…) that the second bailout would work and that “the risks of turning away from Greece now are incalculable. No one can assess what consequences would arise for the German economy, or Italy, Spain, the eurozone as a whole and finally for the whole world.”

Well Angela, one way or another, I think we are going to find out just what those consequences are going to be sooner than you might think.

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Mon, 03/12/2012 - 06:48 | 2246682 ivars
Mon, 03/12/2012 - 06:56 | 2246688 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Desperately, desperately, trying to give a shit and ...er...still no.

What's the going rate for CDS on gold bullion these days?

Oh would you look at that, I don't need any. Silly old me...

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 06:56 | 2246695 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



This ongoing crap is severely harshing my buzz.



Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:01 | 2246700 Nussi34
Nussi34's picture

Kim Wilde:


View from a bridge - Can't take anymore

View from a bridge - Can't take anymore.
I guess it all began about a year ago
Like a cheap love magazine

You know the kind you read about and have to laugh
At the pages in between.
Now I can't believe that fool inside is me
'cos Ijust can't face the world I've grown to see.
View from a bridge - Can't take anymore
. . .
I saw you kissing her
I saw you makin her
In the soft sheets in between.
But when you turned around I saw your eyes were fire
And you crashed out aU. my dreams

And like a fool Ijust stood there and let it go -
I should have fought right back and let my feelings show.

View from a bridge - Can't take anymore
. . .

You sure as hell knew how to make a fool outa me.
you cut me down for the things you want
and now its killing me
oh -
But then a voice said jump and I just let go and I'm floating out in space.
But then I feel your arms and I turn around to a ghost without a face

And I just don't know what's fact or fantasy
'cos when I look below the bridge I see it's me.
View from a bridge - Can't take anymore
. . .
View from a bridge - Can't take anymore
. . .
View from a bridge - Can't take anymore
. . .

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:10 | 2246711 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Why is it that people keep singing songs at me?

What do you think this is, American fucking Idol,..

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:43 | 2246744 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Hi everybody! First time here...i was googling American Idol and this link came up in the search... What are you guys talking about...is there going to be abgreek version?

And what is CDS?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:58 | 2246764 valley chick
valley chick's picture

it was suppose to read...CD's....new one to be released soon! ;)


Mon, 03/12/2012 - 06:49 | 2246683 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

As soon as Sark is ousted the cracks will be visible canyons. Empire usually crumbles first at the periphery.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:28 | 2246723 Maghreb
Maghreb's picture

What makes you think Sarko's that important? What makes you think Hollande won't pull the exact same shit?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 06:50 | 2246685 Irish66
Irish66's picture

Netherlands will get downgraded

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 06:55 | 2246692 DutchR
DutchR's picture

Our AAA weed = guaranteed

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:05 | 2246706 DutchDude
DutchDude's picture

Yep; we have a dangerously high real estate bubble, waiting to pop.

Government hardly got 18bln austerities though parleament; no way an additional 16bln is gonna get through without a fight, hitting the middleclass full on. There's already are too many houses for sale, but nobody wants to lower prices, leaving them with debt to refinance. This is a sh*tstorm waiting to blow all over the Netherlands...

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:44 | 2246745 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Seek advice from Iceland.  Screw the IMF.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 09:10 | 2246868 Dugald
Dugald's picture

Say Cheese, much nicer....

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 09:19 | 2246878 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Yep, their real estate market has been under water for decades and soon no dikes will save them from the comming flood.


Mark my words, global warming will be a bitch for the dutch.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 09:40 | 2246929 DutchR
DutchR's picture

The Netherlands, highest place below sea level...

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:31 | 2247078 SubjectivObject
SubjectivObject's picture

Priceless, thanks.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 06:51 | 2246686 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

This "thing" is far from over!

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 06:55 | 2246691 sunnydays
sunnydays's picture

Hope everyone has been smart, instead of having paper in their pocket they have some hard metals for when the full exposure happens of how the Euro experiment is over.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 06:57 | 2246694 nmewn
nmewn's picture

A state that has become a ward of the state, this is getting interesting. I wonder what the SNAP card will look like and can they be used in casinos and strip joints?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 06:59 | 2246697 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Clearly this is the best possible reason for gold and silver to be going down???

Explains it all, not.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:06 | 2246707 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Remain calm......all is well.


Another chunk of hot QE cash on the fire should do the trick.


Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:13 | 2246712 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Let's hope so eh...

If it doesn't go up soon I'm going to chuck it all in and buy some Greek Govt bonds, now that they've finally fixed it, once and for all...

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:50 | 2246754 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



That may be all that is left to get. Mish stated that some people from China flew in for a day looking for gold coins and left the next day.


Paper gold we've got in spades.......real gold......not so much.


I hear CNBC is running a special on gold today....I'm sure they'll enlighten us.


Mon, 03/12/2012 - 08:11 | 2246781 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

yeah, on how not to do it...

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 18:39 | 2248815 smiler03
smiler03's picture

I still struggle to believe in Gold when there is clearly so much manipulation. Or am I just imagining it?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 06:59 | 2246696 DutchDude
DutchDude's picture

Dutch MSM has been very happy to announce that Greece, and with it Europe, is saved! Lying bastards!

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 09:06 | 2246864 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

Oh no! They lied to me AGAIN! How dare they?!?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 06:59 | 2246699 Irish66
Irish66's picture

Timmy's wife won't answer their home phone

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:03 | 2246702 nontaxpayer
nontaxpayer's picture

Might as well buy 1 krugerrand now, after all it'll be worth $60k at some stage.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:07 | 2246708 DutchDude
DutchDude's picture

When it does hit 60k; you better buy a tank on solar power with that because walking the streets is as dangerous as tapdancing on a landmine

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:11 | 2246709 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

Greecing rhe skid for the PIIGs , Wheee, Wheee,Wheeee, Wheee!

Saying Greece  is saved is as an annoying, and as realiity based  as a commercial.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:20 | 2246718 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Well.....it looks like you pissed off at least one person.


Good job mate!


Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:47 | 2246751 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Yes, the Greek office of tourism.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:16 | 2246715 SoundMoney45
SoundMoney45's picture

It is important as this progresses to watch the level of writedown in pension funds versus banking assets.  I am starting to think this entire circus exists to obfuscate the looting of pension funds.  

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:17 | 2246716 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

If banks had sense they would have dropped the Greek Bonds and kept the CDS's naked.


That way they can clean up now the insurance is paying off.

...of course for every bank / hedgie which did this - there will be those who didn't - the CDS writers who are left exposed.


So overal everything may be hedged - but that only makes any sense if everyone holds equally the amounts of Greek CDS and Greek debt.


....and I know for a FACT they don't.


This should clear a few zombies.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 12:33 | 2247507 Bwahaha WAGFDSMB
Bwahaha WAGFDSMB's picture

How do the banks or insurance companies that sold the CDS hedge their exposure?  Is it time for another AIG bailout?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:27 | 2246722 Dull Which
Dull Which's picture

I know I am not the first to wonder why it took so long to answer the simple "has Greece defaulted?" question..... the cycnic might suggest that was how long it took for the markets to close. But having had a weekend to absorb it all, the stock markets haven't budged


So everything is fine, right?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 08:22 | 2246730 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

hmmmm, ISDA's voting board run by TBTF's??

Let's see...what other entity has that same structure?...oh yeah...the Fed.

lol, one might come to the conclusion that this is one big racket...but that would be conspiracy "crazy talk".

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:39 | 2246736 AustrianEconomist
AustrianEconomist's picture

Check out the latest from the Capital Research Institute:

Currency Wars – Survival of the Weakest

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:41 | 2246738 AustrianEconomist
AustrianEconomist's picture

Check out the latest from the Capital Research Institute:

Currency Wars – Survival of the Weakest

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:42 | 2246742 Prime Meridian
Prime Meridian's picture

Greece and Portugal now yield 14%.  Does anyone know if their citizens are experiencing real estate asset deflation and or consumer goods inflation ?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 08:03 | 2246770 DutchR
DutchR's picture

Does pay deflation count?




They look ready to revolt, lol


Mon, 03/12/2012 - 09:02 | 2246857 PR Guy
PR Guy's picture

That picture in Athens News is of the guys who have a job.... that's just a picture of how they perform it. Draw a line across Europe anywhere south of Paris and 3 hours for lunch is mandatory, followed by a little siesta.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 09:16 | 2246873 jover
jover's picture


Mon, 03/12/2012 - 16:47 | 2248431 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

Make sure you wake me up for supper.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 18:50 | 2248844 smiler03
smiler03's picture

@ PR Guy.

After reading your post the word Ignoramus comes to mind. It means "An ignorant or stupid person". 

That's you that is.

"The eurozone crisis has sown divisions in the European family, and Greece in particular has often been singled out for criticism. Has Greece been living beyond its means? Are Greeks lazy? On this second point, the statistics tell a surprising story."



Mon, 03/12/2012 - 08:01 | 2246769 GNWT
GNWT's picture

Mose knows:


If you only knew all the dealing
That goes on in back of the store.
If you only knew how that one that's
Got a lot can't wait to get more.
I wouldn't want to cramp your style

But if you want to make it all worthwhile.
You have to have your own breakthrough.
If you only knew.



Mon, 03/12/2012 - 08:04 | 2246772 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Yeah everyone I talk to thinks that all is saved... LOL

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