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View From The Bridge: And They Think It’s All Over…

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Submitted by Clive Hale from View from the Bridge

And they think it’s all over…

So Greece has been saved – is that right? Well according to ISDA (the International Swaps and Derivatives Association) a “Restructuring Credit Event has occurred with respect to the Hellenic Republic” which in the vernacular means the Greeks are bust; tell us something we don’t know! The importance of this statement is that credit default swaps (CDS) on Greek debt are now triggered and holders will have their losses made good. There were any number of scurrilous rumours that ISDA would not declare a credit event to preclude their illustrious members from paying out, but when the net downside of $3 billion needs to be shared out amongst the likes of Barclays, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, UBS, BNP Paribas and Societe Generale, then a quick whip round in the bar after close of business and the jobs a good’un.

Their meeting went on for quite a lot longer than it takes to answer the question – “Has Greece defaulted? Yes or no.” – so it is quite likely that some on the list felt they were in for more than their fair share. Whilst the net exposure is small the gross tally is $68.9 billion according to Bloomberg so there is a lot of room for “error” here. In fact one Austrian bank, a “bad” bank left holding the baby (Greek CDS amongst other toxic waste) after an earlier reconstruction has owned up to a €1.3 billion hole in its balance sheet as a result. Undoubtedly they will not be the last casualty in this chapter, but it won’t be any of the “big boys” this time around or there wouldn’t have been a “credit event” would there?

Given the shenanigans in this apology for a currency “union” you really shouldn’t be surprised to discover that there is far more Greek debt around than we thought we had given them “credit” for. On top of the sovereign debt it seems there is another $100 billion or so of paper, issued by the Athens Urban Transportation Co, the Hellenic Railway and assorted Greek banks amongst others, “guaranteed” by the Hellenic republic. Guarantees in financial circles tend to come with a pinch of scepticism, but when combined with Greek mythology they become truly “heroic” assumptions. And no one thought to mention these obligations before putting the taxpayer on the hook for the €130 billion bailout? Heaven forbid that anyone gets to see the full picture…

And what did the politicos make of this deal of the century? The Greek finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos, said that the deal had helped Greece to avoid a “nightmare scenario” and given it a “new opportunity”. Blah, blah, blah! Have another box of cream donuts before you “waste away” along with your country’s economy. Far more realistically la Merkel admitted to the Bundestag that there were “no guarantees” (there’s that word again…) that the second bailout would work and that “the risks of turning away from Greece now are incalculable. No one can assess what consequences would arise for the German economy, or Italy, Spain, the eurozone as a whole and finally for the whole world.”

Well Angela, one way or another, I think we are going to find out just what those consequences are going to be sooner than you might think.

 


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Mon, 03/12/2012 - 06:48 | Link to Comment ivars
Mon, 03/12/2012 - 06:56 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Desperately, desperately, trying to give a shit and ...er...still no.

What's the going rate for CDS on gold bullion these days?

Oh would you look at that, I don't need any. Silly old me...

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 06:56 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

This ongoing crap is severely harshing my buzz.

 

 

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:01 | Link to Comment Nussi34
Nussi34's picture

Kim Wilde:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gt3svvb57j4

View from a bridge - Can't take anymore

View from a bridge - Can't take anymore.
I guess it all began about a year ago
Like a cheap love magazine

You know the kind you read about and have to laugh
At the pages in between.
Now I can't believe that fool inside is me
'cos Ijust can't face the world I've grown to see.
View from a bridge - Can't take anymore
. . .
I saw you kissing her
I saw you makin her
In the soft sheets in between.
But when you turned around I saw your eyes were fire
And you crashed out aU. my dreams

And like a fool Ijust stood there and let it go -
I should have fought right back and let my feelings show.

View from a bridge - Can't take anymore
. . .

You sure as hell knew how to make a fool outa me.
Well
you cut me down for the things you want
and now its killing me
oh -
But then a voice said jump and I just let go and I'm floating out in space.
But then I feel your arms and I turn around to a ghost without a face

And I just don't know what's fact or fantasy
'cos when I look below the bridge I see it's me.
View from a bridge - Can't take anymore
. . .
View from a bridge - Can't take anymore
. . .
View from a bridge - Can't take anymore
. . .

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:10 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Why is it that people keep singing songs at me?

What do you think this is, American fucking Idol,..

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:43 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Hi everybody! First time here...i was googling American Idol and this link came up in the search... What are you guys talking about...is there going to be abgreek version?

And what is CDS?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:58 | Link to Comment valley chick
valley chick's picture

it was suppose to read...CD's....new one to be released soon! ;)

 

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 06:49 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

As soon as Sark is ousted the cracks will be visible canyons. Empire usually crumbles first at the periphery.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:28 | Link to Comment Maghreb
Maghreb's picture

What makes you think Sarko's that important? What makes you think Hollande won't pull the exact same shit?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 06:50 | Link to Comment Irish66
Irish66's picture

Netherlands will get downgraded

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 06:55 | Link to Comment DutchR
DutchR's picture

Our AAA weed = guaranteed

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:05 | Link to Comment DutchDude
DutchDude's picture

Yep; we have a dangerously high real estate bubble, waiting to pop.

Government hardly got 18bln austerities though parleament; no way an additional 16bln is gonna get through without a fight, hitting the middleclass full on. There's already are too many houses for sale, but nobody wants to lower prices, leaving them with debt to refinance. This is a sh*tstorm waiting to blow all over the Netherlands...

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:44 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

Seek advice from Iceland.  Screw the IMF.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 09:10 | Link to Comment Dugald
Dugald's picture

Say Cheese, much nicer....

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 09:19 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Yep, their real estate market has been under water for decades and soon no dikes will save them from the comming flood.

Like I always say: IT'S BETTER TO LIVE HIGH AND DRY IN BELGIUM THAN SO DROWN IN HOLLAND!

Mark my words, global warming will be a bitch for the dutch.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 09:40 | Link to Comment DutchR
DutchR's picture

The Netherlands, highest place below sea level...

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 10:31 | Link to Comment SubjectivObject
SubjectivObject's picture

Priceless, thanks.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 06:51 | Link to Comment TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

This "thing" is far from over!

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 06:55 | Link to Comment sunnydays
sunnydays's picture

Hope everyone has been smart, instead of having paper in their pocket they have some hard metals for when the full exposure happens of how the Euro experiment is over.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 06:57 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

A state that has become a ward of the state, this is getting interesting. I wonder what the SNAP card will look like and can they be used in casinos and strip joints?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 06:59 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Clearly this is the best possible reason for gold and silver to be going down???

Explains it all, not.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:06 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Remain calm......all is well.

 

Another chunk of hot QE cash on the fire should do the trick.

 

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:13 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Let's hope so eh...

If it doesn't go up soon I'm going to chuck it all in and buy some Greek Govt bonds, now that they've finally fixed it, once and for all...

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:50 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

That may be all that is left to get. Mish stated that some people from China flew in for a day looking for gold coins and left the next day.

 

Paper gold we've got in spades.......real gold......not so much.

 

I hear CNBC is running a special on gold today....I'm sure they'll enlighten us.

 

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 08:11 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

yeah, on how not to do it...

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 18:39 | Link to Comment smiler03
smiler03's picture

I still struggle to believe in Gold when there is clearly so much manipulation. Or am I just imagining it?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 06:59 | Link to Comment DutchDude
DutchDude's picture

Dutch MSM has been very happy to announce that Greece, and with it Europe, is saved! Lying bastards!

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 09:06 | Link to Comment Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

Oh no! They lied to me AGAIN! How dare they?!?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 06:59 | Link to Comment Irish66
Irish66's picture

Timmy's wife won't answer their home phone

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:03 | Link to Comment nontaxpayer
nontaxpayer's picture

Might as well buy 1 krugerrand now, after all it'll be worth $60k at some stage.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:07 | Link to Comment DutchDude
DutchDude's picture

When it does hit 60k; you better buy a tank on solar power with that because walking the streets is as dangerous as tapdancing on a landmine

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:11 | Link to Comment Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

Greecing rhe skid for the PIIGs , Wheee, Wheee,Wheeee, Wheee!

Saying Greece  is saved is as an annoying, and as realiity based  as a commercial.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:20 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Well.....it looks like you pissed off at least one person.

 

Good job mate!

 

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:47 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Yes, the Greek office of tourism.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:16 | Link to Comment SoundMoney45
SoundMoney45's picture

It is important as this progresses to watch the level of writedown in pension funds versus banking assets.  I am starting to think this entire circus exists to obfuscate the looting of pension funds.  

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:17 | Link to Comment writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

If banks had sense they would have dropped the Greek Bonds and kept the CDS's naked.

 

That way they can clean up now the insurance is paying off.

...of course for every bank / hedgie which did this - there will be those who didn't - the CDS writers who are left exposed.

 

So overal everything may be hedged - but that only makes any sense if everyone holds equally the amounts of Greek CDS and Greek debt.

 

....and I know for a FACT they don't.

 

This should clear a few zombies.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 12:33 | Link to Comment Bwahaha WAGFDSMB
Bwahaha WAGFDSMB's picture

How do the banks or insurance companies that sold the CDS hedge their exposure?  Is it time for another AIG bailout?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:27 | Link to Comment Dull Which
Dull Which's picture

I know I am not the first to wonder why it took so long to answer the simple "has Greece defaulted?" question..... the cycnic might suggest that was how long it took for the markets to close. But having had a weekend to absorb it all, the stock markets haven't budged

 

So everything is fine, right?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 08:22 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

hmmmm, ISDA's voting board run by TBTF's??

Let's see...what other entity has that same structure?...oh yeah...the Fed.

lol, one might come to the conclusion that this is one big racket...but that would be conspiracy "crazy talk".

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:39 | Link to Comment AustrianEconomist
AustrianEconomist's picture

Check out the latest from the Capital Research Institute:

Currency Wars – Survival of the Weakest

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:41 | Link to Comment AustrianEconomist
AustrianEconomist's picture

Check out the latest from the Capital Research Institute:

Currency Wars – Survival of the Weakest

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 07:42 | Link to Comment Prime Meridian
Prime Meridian's picture

Greece and Portugal now yield 14%.  Does anyone know if their citizens are experiencing real estate asset deflation and or consumer goods inflation ?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 08:03 | Link to Comment DutchR
DutchR's picture

Does pay deflation count?

http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/1/53994

 

 

They look ready to revolt, lol

 

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 09:02 | Link to Comment PR Guy
PR Guy's picture

That picture in Athens News is of the guys who have a job.... that's just a picture of how they perform it. Draw a line across Europe anywhere south of Paris and 3 hours for lunch is mandatory, followed by a little siesta.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 09:16 | Link to Comment jover
jover's picture

Waha!

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 16:47 | Link to Comment roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

Make sure you wake me up for supper.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 18:50 | Link to Comment smiler03
smiler03's picture

@ PR Guy.

After reading your post the word Ignoramus comes to mind. It means "An ignorant or stupid person". 

That's you that is.

"The eurozone crisis has sown divisions in the European family, and Greece in particular has often been singled out for criticism. Has Greece been living beyond its means? Are Greeks lazy? On this second point, the statistics tell a surprising story."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-17155304

 

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 08:01 | Link to Comment GNWT
GNWT's picture

Mose knows:

 

If you only knew all the dealing
That goes on in back of the store.
If you only knew how that one that's
Got a lot can't wait to get more.
I wouldn't want to cramp your style


But if you want to make it all worthwhile.
You have to have your own breakthrough.
If you only knew.

 

G

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 08:04 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Yeah everyone I talk to thinks that all is saved... LOL

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 08:09 | Link to Comment EmileLargo
EmileLargo's picture

Has anyone here read Michael Lewis's book Boomerang? Chapter 2 deals with Greece. It is a shocking chapter. All the defenders of poor old helpless Greece "the victim" will get an education. Highly recommended. It destroys any myths that the Euro is sustainable. The whole thing has to collapse at some point. The only question is when.

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 08:59 | Link to Comment 359766
359766's picture

yeeesss ... read it! nice bed time story. but prefere crisis economics by roubini

agree with you ... sooner or later collapse will happen but ... there are so many people out there not understanding what's going on. becasue they don't even try! they just the f*** don't care! and the ones trying to figure out how things work in this exiting system get lies directly into their face ... and i guess as long as there's no awareness on mainstreet, things won't change!

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 09:18 | Link to Comment jover
jover's picture

True, some people do not want to educate themselves on this. Agreed, sometimes it can be hard to understand, boring lecture. Watching memebase is more fun!

What will happen to those poor people who havent got any value left?

Mon, 03/12/2012 - 09:02 | Link to Comment Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

"the risks of turning away from Greece now are incalculable" -> she meant inquantifiable with monetary instruments (OSHI- she just #DIV/0d).

Mon, 07/16/2012 - 08:01 | Link to Comment nahshal
nahshal's picture

after an earlier reconstruction has owned up to a €1.3 billion hole in its balance sheet as a result
so nice article thanks for this...

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