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Visualizing How Bank Of America's Reserve Accounting Errors Are One Giant "Subprime CDO "

Tyler Durden's picture


About a month ago we penned an article titled (and asking) "Is Brian Lin The Next Incarnation Of Joe Cassano?" in which we sought to demonstrate just on what flimsy ground Bank of America has based its litigation reserve assumptions: a topic that since then has become the biggest sticking point in the BAC bull thesis. Considering that since then, Bank of America default risk has exploded by over 150% and the stock price has plummeted by half, at least some have grasped the severity of a situation when incremental flawed assumptions are magnified level after level, until we finally get what, as Manal Mehta terms it, is a Bank of America "Subprime CDO." Since this issue is extremely important to the future of the financial system (a bankruptcy of Bank of America would be hundreds of times more severe than Lehman's), below we present in visual, and thus easy to comprehend, format what we previously explaining in a narrative and which once again brings us to our question: will the man behind the BAC litigation reserve fraud be responsible for the next iteration of an AIG-type implosion?

Here is what we said a month ago:

“As an example, even if just the last assumption were changed from Countrywide and Bank of America having to repurchase all, rather than just 40%, of loans that were both in default and breached Countrywide's representations and warranties, then Mr. Lin's estimate of a reasonable settlement would rise from a range of $8.8 to $11 billion to a range of $22 to $27.5 billion. Modifying any of his other three assumptions would cause that range to rise much more."”

And here is Bank of America's fraud upon fraud in chart format:




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Mon, 08/22/2011 - 22:51 | 1588906 max2205
max2205's picture


Mon, 08/22/2011 - 23:20 | 1589001 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

"Friends of Angelo", I think not. 


Tue, 08/23/2011 - 01:31 | 1589248 Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

Bank of America is a tapeworm infested piece of shit. 

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 03:05 | 1589326 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

Unfortunately it's still lodged in the nation's colon and no amount of Exlax seems to be able to get it out...

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 00:51 | 1589179 G-R-U-N-T
G-R-U-N-T's picture

Bill Black clarifies:

"In The Law, Bastiat explains that if the privileged classes use the government for "legalized plunder" this will encourage the lower classes to revolt or use socialist "legalized plunder" and that the correct response to both the socialists and the corporatists is to cease all "legalized plunder". Bastiat also explains why his position is that the law cannot defend life, liberty and property if it promotes socialist policies. When used to obtain "legalized plunder" for any group, he says, the law is perverted and turned against the thing it is supposed to defend.[8]"

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 02:47 | 1589315 thislittlepiggy
thislittlepiggy's picture

The Four Horsemen are coming....

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 04:12 | 1589365 fx
fx's picture

Oh yeah, of course, Mr. Lin's assumptions from a distance are far more accurate and credible than BofA's. Sure. If tomorrow some moron came up with an even higher risk estimate ZH would probably be even more euphoric about publishingh it. Unfortunately, ZH has by now become a total gloom and doom shop only - it is focussing solely on any piece of bad or negative news or uhm, speculation, they can get their hands on. Understandable, since fear and gllom sells far better than optimism or just balanced views. Btw, BofA may still have the legal option to just send Countrywide into bk - now, that would be funny, won't it? What baffles me here is that everybody attacks the banks and their lending and disclosure practice while all the irresponsible idiots who blatantly LIED in their loan applications about their personal finances and who still get even rewarded with taxpayer money are totally out of focus...

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 04:30 | 1589374 Transformer
Transformer's picture

Do you think that maybe, just maybe, the gloom and doom here has something to do with current conditions?  Gold went  up a couple hundred $ in a couple weeks.  You think there was some good news behind that?   I'd like to hear it.  How about the good news behind european sovereigns and their bonds.  What's the good news there?  Housing is down, unemployment is up, more people on foodstamps than ever, the US is in a debt stiuation that cannot be solved, businesses are failing all over. 

So tell us some of the good news.


Tue, 08/23/2011 - 04:52 | 1589391 Alpha Monkey
Alpha Monkey's picture

What baffles me here is that everybody attacks the banks and their lending and disclosure practice while all the irresponsible idiots who blatantly LIED in their loan applications about their personal finances and who still get even rewarded with taxpayer money are totally out of focus...

Maybe you should go check out then come back and talk about who was lying where and when.  You might be supprised to find out that the people earning sizeable bonuses were the ones primarily insisting on falsifying income statements.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 08:52 | 1589680 jayman21
jayman21's picture

The common guy cannot bring the global economy down, but the expert can and did and continues to bring it down.  What more is there to this arguement?

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 05:57 | 1589420 Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

"What baffles me here is that everybody attacks the banks and their lending and disclosure practice while all the irresponsible idiots who blatantly LIED in their loan applications about their personal finances and who still get even rewarded with taxpayer money are totally out of focus..."

It's true, there were shady characters and liars applying for loans. Let's be clear though, the banks are the guardians in this process. They are the alleged professionals whom we hire to sort out (or, yes, even deny) loan applicants and to price accurately the risks of the loans they do make. Nobody can credibly claim the banks did their job well in this regard, least of all Contrywide and BofA.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 06:43 | 1589442 Pay Day Today
Pay Day Today's picture

William Black has been crystal on this point. 80% or more of the frauds in liars loans and other subprime loans were perpetrated by lenders.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 07:09 | 1589464 r101958
r101958's picture

"...while all the irresponsible idiots who blatantly LIED in their loan applications about their personal finances..."

Conversely, what happened to 'due diligence' with regard to checking the validity of the information on the application? As a buyer, if I want to buy a piece of land, I had better exercise due diligence by checking the land and its paper trail. If I don't, and there is something wrong with title or the land is not what I expected then I am screwed.

Both parties to a deal have responsibility. Both parties, in this real estate disaster, are at fault.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 07:27 | 1589480 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

"Conversely, what happened to 'due diligence' with regard to checking the validity of the information on the application?"

Bawney had a piece of defeating 'due diligence' (this from the Globe, of all places,  in 9/08):

and Janet Reno, in her own words:

And don't forget Jamie Gorelik who caught it on both sides: in Justice and in Fannie:

"During Gorelick’s tenure Fannie Mae began to bundle subprime loans into securitized financial instruments."

Above is just a piece of the mess.

- Ned

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 08:03 | 1589524 johnnymustardseed
johnnymustardseed's picture

FX, if  B of A was going to loan a couple of hundred billion to people for homes they could not afford, don't you think they would check  loan application  cause if they can't pay and the shit that is happening might be coming back to bite them.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:23 | 1590115 rekfhardy
rekfhardy's picture

I understand Ken Lewis took down the "BK" remote structure his legal beagles had wisely constructed to ring fence Countrywide from BAC. If true, another trick must be found, possibly hiving it off to the taxpayers as part of the coming roll up of FNM, FRE, FHA..

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 22:55 | 1588910 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

Had an intelligent comment, but that 101 off to the right distracted me. Off to wherever.

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 22:57 | 1588920 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Great analysis. Here is what Der Spiegel has to say:


Speculators are betting against the euro, banks are taking incalculable risks and the markets are in turmoil. Three years after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, the financial industry has become a threat to the global economy again. Governments missed the chance to regulate the industry, and another crash is just a matter of time. By SPIEGEL Staff.,1518,781590,00.html#ref=n...


Tue, 08/23/2011 - 00:05 | 1589109 TimmyM
TimmyM's picture

Pulau, your spiegel article misses the elephant in the room. All this financial innovation and shadow banking was not created in a vacuum. Keynesian monetary fiat central banking and policies of promoting growth by fixing the price and availability of credit has drowned the system with liquidity. Demand for capital is what should determine credit growth. Policies promoting uneconomic credit compress credit profitability. Banking capital is forced to reach for a satisfactory return in ever more risky ways as the core economic function of banking is destroyed by government sponsored excess lending capacity. All the eggheads quoted fault a lack of regulation and a failure of free markets. What they should conclude is a failure of Keynesian credit schemes that interfere with a free market for capital.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 01:54 | 1589268 narnia
narnia's picture

with fractional reserve banking in a central bank controlled single legal tender fiat currency system, there's no escaping the busines cycle and/or inflation from an overly ambitious Treasury no matter how omniscient the regulatory body.

the only winning move, professor falken, is not to play the game: no state sponsored fractional reserve banking, no central bank & no legal tender laws.


Tue, 08/23/2011 - 06:47 | 1589446 Pay Day Today
Pay Day Today's picture

"What they should conclude is a failure of Keynesian credit schemes that interfere with a free market for capital."

When on earth did flooding the banking system with trillions in liquidity suddenly get described as "Keynesian"???

Keynes was interested in supporting aggregate demand within the overall economy when times were tough.

Not the aggregate demand of Wall St traders and HFT teams.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 09:24 | 1589813 TimmyM
TimmyM's picture

"Supporting aggregate demand" distorts the price and availabilty of credit. This missallocates capital flows. You have confused intent with result.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 03:32 | 1589340 oogs66
oogs66's picture

spot on...banks refused to raise new capital when they could...regulators talked about 2015....we might not make it that long

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 23:01 | 1588935 CHARLIE.DONT.SERF

How much more straw can this camel's back take?

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 23:57 | 1589092 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

This may help the picture

“If the US government was a family, they would be making $58,000 a year, spending $75,000 a year, and have $327,000 in credit card debt.

They are currently proposing BIG spending cuts to reduce their spending to $72,000 a year. These are the actual proportions of the federal budget and debt, reduced to a level that we can understand.”

Wesley LeGrand, Grand Private Equities

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 01:37 | 1589256 foofoojin
foofoojin's picture

And then there medical jumped another 2k a year like mine.  so it was all for nothing. at this point. everything is for nothing.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 03:09 | 1589329 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

Whoops... the car just blew its transmission and Dad's hours at WalMart got cut.........

But we're still paying for Cousin Bobby's new 12 gauge, F-250 and trained huntin' dawg......  gotta feel like we're well protected. 

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 06:03 | 1589421 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

Haha, yep, have a green one.
And running with it , the money isn't owed to rich daddy warbucks , it's owed to the wide boy loan shark who once he can afford the gold plated Uzi 9mm will demand Alaska as payment for the debt

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 02:08 | 1589289 Cast Iron Skillet
Cast Iron Skillet's picture

nice picture, thanks! ... I would add that the credit card debt is at a low but likely soon to be much higher interest rate.

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 23:01 | 1588937 brokesville
brokesville's picture

Change name to Bank of  Fukushima send out a new lobbyist with new name of course problem solved, this new economics is grrrreate

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 23:03 | 1588940 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Details, details....let the great bank "temporary nationalization" scheme begin : Fed takes them over, scrubs 'em clean, spins off a new lean mean 'good bank', and taxpayers get left holding the bag. 

We all win!

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 23:19 | 1588997 DonutBoy
DonutBoy's picture

Yes - but I'm thinking it won't work because it will go system-wide.  The failure might look like this: the treasury announces it's nationalized BofA temporarily and all counter-party liabilities will be met, bond holders take a loss, and stock-holders are screwed.  Every other bank's stock-holders realizes the entire system is at riak.  All bank stocks are sold off.  No one will loan to any bank except the nationalized BofA.  Now TARP-2 is required, or the credit system freezes.  But Congress is not in session and is in no mood for TARP.  Twelve hours later it's in Europe, and it's a total catastrophe, all the banks are closed.  Another 12 hours and the US banks are closed.

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 23:43 | 1589064 johnnynaps
johnnynaps's picture

If you could paint that picture, it would be worth Millions in a hundred years. Then again, this bottle of Gin might be worth that considering our fiat!

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 00:16 | 1589126 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Fannie/Freddy 'conservatorship' was anounced as a done deal. No discussion. Fed, Treasury, FDIC would collaborate. No haircuts, no huge debt for equity. Fed learned from 2008 not to let TBTF fail. They'll pre-empt the fail. This time around there's not enough private sector to absorb this Walrus. 

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 23:02 | 1588941 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

O'robyomama will no doubt get on TV soon and read from his teleprompter that B of A is a good buy and that buying it is the patriotic thing to do !

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 03:46 | 1589356 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Stick it in yer garage, right next to that Chebby Volt...

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 23:09 | 1588944 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Rollover 1981 (movie) perfectly visualized our current condition.

Rollover 1981... world economic collapse

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 02:45 | 1589313 Seer
Seer's picture

And the Saudis (soon to be the Chinese) were the scapegoats.  Never mind that the system was predestined to fail (perpetual growth on a finite planet).

I still love this vid, comedy can deliver the message clearer than anything else:

BTW - How do you say "we're fucked" in Chinese?

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 23:05 | 1588953 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

"Ask not what your country can do for you. Ask what you and your country can do for the banks". 

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 23:06 | 1588959 Randy Kruger
Randy Kruger's picture

Smoke and mirrors.  None of this matters.  BAC will implode if allowed to implode (Lehman 2008), and will survive if there is enough interest from the Fed & company to keep it alive (all other TBTF, 2008).   In any case, QE3 will be right behind the upcoming escalation of crisis.

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 23:12 | 1588973 James T. Kirk
James T. Kirk's picture

When bofa tanks, the multiple street riots/bank runs will be visible from low orbit satellites. Wonder how the FDIC would play that one? Do they have a fleet of semi-truck size printing presses they can deploy in such an event?

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 00:27 | 1589104 sasebo
sasebo's picture

Just tried to pull 60k in cash out of my bank friday - they didn't have it in the vault. Scurred around like mad. Said they would have to go to the Fed for it. To have it printed? Who knows. Told me I could get it thursday.

I'm probably on some hit list at the FED but I don't give a shit. Everything else is AU & AG in my possession.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 00:48 | 1589187 Jasper M
Jasper M's picture

I had a similar experience, with a smaller amount,at a small bank, last year. Closing an account of $13,000, they could only give me $10,000 in cash. 

   That prepared me mentally for what is to come. The Fed does Not have enough cash (as in FRNs) to handle a general bank run. Only about $55B on the planet. They will have to "holiday"; only probabyl be more like "holi-week". Which will help things So much! Nothing generates calm like being unable to take action. Probably end up like Argentina, withdrawal limits. 

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 06:18 | 1589425 Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

According to the Fed's own data, there is roughly $975 billion in currency (FRNs) circulating worldwide. A quick back-of-the-envelope calculation indicates that's about 3 grand in ready cash for every man, woman, and child in the US.

However, when you consider that by some estimates, about half of that currency circulates outside the US (and some estimates place this figure at 80%), there's even less cash per person available at home. And of the stuff that's actually in the US, none of it is in the banks but instead is in the pockets of individuals and in the tils of businesses. (The currency held by banks is counted toward their reserves, and is only about $57 billion currently.)

Bottom line: for a 60 grand cash w/d, Im surprised you only had to wait a few days. Ink takes a while to dry...

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 23:12 | 1588975 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Think of BAC as a mini Greece: 

Giant debt for equity swap will be politically unacceptable. Haircuts are out of the question. So a Fed mop up operation is in order to show that "all debts will be repaid in full". And a new and improved BAC will emerge which will tend to the urgent business of sitting on cash, collecting interest on Treasuries, and calculating the bonus pool. 

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 23:13 | 1588977 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

But! But!! InfiniTimmy and Ben-O-Cide said!

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 00:06 | 1589110 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

JW buddy, i can see u have lost faith in our great leaders

Would it be because debt is back to where it was after World War Two?, and for similar reasons: military spending plus post-economic crisis welfare.

There is one big difference, however: the war hasn't ended. After 1945 the world entered a period of postwar reconstruction that lifted economies everywhere. The US economy boomed in the 1950s as a result of the fact that it won the war. Economic growth wiped out the government debt quickly.

That is not happening this time, it's more like Japan after 1989, when the economy remained in a debt trap. A debt trap is where a government is forced to reduce spending and raise taxes, which weakens the economy and further increases debt.

For 30 years real incomes in the US have not grown, and the consumption and housing booms were fuelled by debt instead of income growth. It was, in a way, a fools' paradise that has now caught up. After the recession of the 1970s and 1980s, the US government moved to actively stimulate household borrowing, to create the illusion of prosperity through rising house prices and debt-funded consumption.

In addition spending on social security and medical benefits was steadily increased without any regard to the ageing of the population, the rise in life expectancy and the growing obesity of the population, leading to deteriorating health. Then in 2001 military spending was dramatically increased...

thats the way i see the main issues and you have taught me the rest

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 03:07 | 1589327 Seer
Seer's picture

All good, though I have a slightly different take on this comment:

"The US economy boomed in the 1950s as a result of the fact that it won the war."

The US economy boomed for these reason:

1) Removal of spending controls- manufacturing adjusting back toward civilian goods;

2) Pent up savings were unleased (see #1);

3) Rest of world was shifted from military spending (generally same as #1 and #2);

4) US came out of the war as the leading industrial nation (exports up);

5) Further wealth realization through oil exports (US was leading exporter of oil- now it's the leading importer);

6) Low personal debt levels (see #1 and #2).

The US really was never under attack by any conventional sense of war.  Yeah, Pearl Harbor (which was blow back from US interrupting supply lines in to Japan), but there was nearly zero probability that Japan could have ever occupied the continental US.

What the US "won" was the salvation of its key trading partners: Britain was a major debtor to the US, in which case had Germany "won" the war the US would have lost all chances at collection: and then there was the reconstruction money (  Yes, there was the Marshall Plan, but consider this a small price for the US to maintain its customer base (esp with its heightened industrial position).

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 05:19 | 1589404 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

Yes, all true, not being from the states this was not clear to me, thx.
What do u think about the addiction to military spending? I was going to drone on about that but ran out of puff.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 08:47 | 1589655 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

great little history lesson!  thanks Seer!

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 23:14 | 1588982 Jena
Jena's picture

All our endeavors merely postpone our demise.

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 23:40 | 1589060 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Thankfully every day the system stays up, it gives us one more day to prepare.  This won't be your great-grandpa's Depression.

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 23:24 | 1589012 Catullus
Catullus's picture

This would also assume that Bank of New York Mellon is in the position to determine what a "reasonable" settlement payment should be. I poste this NYT's article in another post, but it seems more topical here:

The deal would require Bank of America to pay $8.5 billion to investors holding the securities; the unpaid principal amount of the mortgages remaining in the pools totals $174 billion. Lawyers representing 22 institutional investors, including the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, BlackRock and Pimco, contended that the deal was favorable.

This month, Mr. Schneiderman sued to block that deal, which had been negotiated by Bank of New York Mellon as trustee for the holders of the securities. The lawsuit contends that the deal could “compromise investors’ claims in exchange for a payment representing a fraction of the losses” experienced by investors and that it had been negotiated without the knowledge of all of the holders of the securities.

Central to all this is the relationship that BNY has as trustee.  I find it hard to believe they're acting in good faith on this and it's worth an investigation by the NY AG's office into whether that is the case or not.


Mon, 08/22/2011 - 23:28 | 1589017 Catullus
Catullus's picture

Some crowdsourcing of this site would be helpful over the next couple of days:

Any Certificateholder or other person potentially interested in the Trusts may object to any
aspect of the Settlement and request to be heard at the hearing by submitting a written notice
prior to the hearing in the manner explained in the Court’s Order dated June 29, 2011 (the
“Preliminary Order”). The Court has directed that any objections to the Settlement must be filed
with the Court and served upon the Trustee’s counsel by August 30, 2011, and that any (i)
responses to objections, or (ii) submissions in favor of or with respect to the Settlement, must be
filed and served by October 31, 2011.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 00:18 | 1589128 LucyLulu
LucyLulu's picture

Catallus wrote:

"This would also assume that Bank of New York Mellon is in the position to determine what a "reasonable" settlement payment should be."

Bill Black did a radio interview right after the settlement and expressed his thoughts on where the ridiculously low number came from...... most likely the largest number that wouldn't threaten BofA's solvency.

I also read elsewhere (can't find link now) the basis for the challenge to the decision and I can't imagine this decision holding up.  There are several conflicts of interest at play, all in favor of BofA, not the least of which is BNY Mellon's status as trustee to agree to the settlement while its interests being more aligned with BoA than the investors (and IIRC, the PSA documents relieve BNY of any fiduciary duty to the investors beyond initial loan documentation upon trust formation and periodic distributions of income). On second thought, given the propensity for banks to be held to different standards of law than the rest of us, I could easily imagine the decision being upheld. 

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 23:31 | 1589034 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Since BAC has issued CDS's on most EU banks many of which are about to fail and trigger those CDS's making BAC

liable for several hundred billion in losses, worrying about 10 or 20 billion seems unproductive.

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 23:35 | 1589040 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

So if Goldman Sachs gets slapped with a lawsuit (vey likely, since HOlder has a hard on for GS), will they be forced to deleverage, as a contingency for more future liabilities.  And if they deleverage, won't the  stock markets crater? And if the markets craters, it becomes reinforced in poor econometrics, which have become highly correlated with indexes, and not marco-conditions.


so in other words. it's gone donkey kong.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 00:00 | 1589096 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

Bank of America gets sued July 29.  A week later the stock market tanks.  Anyone thinks it may have been BAC hedge fund's deleveraging that cause the market rout.   Yes there was Europe.  But was the Europe problem, masking the deleveraging, or worse caused by it. correlation or causality? 


If Goldman Sach gets sued, the markets may implode from more hedge fund deleveraging


BAC hedgefund may be patient 0.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 07:48 | 1589506 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

"If Goldman Sach gets sued,..."

Lloyd b worried a skosh:

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 23:34 | 1589043 DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

Just a real stupid question.  So BAC blows up -- couldn't happen to a nicer bunch, right?  So, I don't use them, and hardly anyone I know does, or anyone responsible for making food get onto my table (I eat mostly locally produced food, including from my own farm).  So, who is really hurt if they blow and glow?  The uber rich?  That's not exactly a majority and again, to a nicer bunch it couldn't happen, right?  They're not "in the club" and are therefore most likely to be allowed to fail.  So?  Again, who is really hurt?  The people who will be foreclosed on late due to the inevitable delay sorthing the paper?  The people who knowingly work for that parasite?  Who?

I'm clearly missing something here, honestly.  Do we really need mega banks at all in even this world that seems to want to depend on huge flows of money back and forth?  Would not a more realistic system result to the almost immediate good of all if all that bad paper and counterparty risk got its bluff called?

Most of you city dwellers don't get how it is elsewhere.  "Out here" where I live we'd be hard pressed to notice such a failure, I'd have to believe.  A huge bunch of the local economy is already barter, debt is low or non existant, and we couldn't  care less if Wall street and DC burned in most cases.  They don't make my tractor run, they don't make my crops and animals grow.  In fact, it's hard to define anything they actually do for us out here.  Oh, to the extent the "war on terror" works out, they deny us some nifty moving-target practice, but most of us think of that as a negative.

I don't get why we care.  I for one could use the break from trading that would ensue if things went bad...Maybe I just need a vacation. I've already been sucking down my account to turn it into "real things" that have long useful lives and pay dividends in quality of life and usefulness anyway.  And of course, PMs.

The markets aren't the only good place to invest -- that's tunnel vision at its worst, probably amplified by all those who don't know how to do anything else.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 00:10 | 1589117 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

In a word, the bad stuff trickles down, the good stuff rarely does. Soon enough you'd be feeling a systemic freeze in the things one takes for granted. But I have to admit you'd be in a prime position to weather the storm out there. You got that right. 

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 07:47 | 1589504 Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

"the bad stuff trickles down, the good stuff rarely does" Well said Caviar!

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 03:28 | 1589335 Seer
Seer's picture

I detest the existing system, but only because it fails to realize that it's leading us over the cliff.  I give it the benefit of the doubt that it thought that it was doing the right thing: pretty amazing what it's been able to do (though it's been at the cost of the future).  Regardless, it WILL collapse.  And if you think that you are shielded then you are dead wrong.

I'm a realist.  I understand that those "local" customers depend on roads and other infrastructure that is highly leveraged and subsidized by the System.  And, as someone replied, impacts may be minimal to you, but there's a good chance the same won't be said of your customers.

As things wind down more and more people will be doing what you (and I) are doing.  This will diminish your (and my) going concern.  Think about this...  Higher-end businesses are doing fine right now.  Why?  Perhaps because they are targeting people who have money?  And here we sit targeting people whose incomes are declining.  It has all the appearances of FAIL; however, we (you and I) know that this is the direction the future will take us.  The trick will be to scale properly.

No one said that this was going to be easy...

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 07:23 | 1589474 PMakoi
PMakoi's picture

"I've already been sucking down my account to turn it into "real things" that have long useful lives and pay dividends in quality of life and usefulness anyway."

Exactly the correct course!  I'm doing the same. 

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 23:51 | 1589074 zebrasquid
zebrasquid's picture

Might have some effect on many of your fellow citizens who buy their stuff in chain stores that depend on just-in-time delivery. Your locally grown food might sky rocket in price when all those folks in the cities start bidding against you as they will do in order to survive. just one example of how life outside your little world will effect it.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 00:16 | 1589127 Catullus
Catullus's picture

Oh yeah.  It feels like 2008.  It was Ike that year, right? 

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 00:22 | 1589134 Destinapp
Destinapp's picture

Well if the average loss is $100K per loan, and Countrywide did about 5 million loans in 2006, with a 10% put back rate, that's $50 Billion for 2006 alone!

Current lawsuits state 50% are bad, so 10% assumption is generous.

My experience over the last couple of years reviewing just one part of these loans is closer to 70%


The Emperor has no clothes..........


Tue, 08/23/2011 - 00:38 | 1589167 Ungaro
Ungaro's picture

First National(ized) Bank?

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 01:49 | 1589270 CharlieSDT
CharlieSDT's picture

Should I worry about my safety deposit box at mt nearby BOFA branch yet?

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 03:32 | 1589341 Seer
Seer's picture

I remember dropping mine at Washington Mutual well in advance of their demise: only had a box there; all my banking has been with credit unions, for decades now.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 01:54 | 1589273 TzaristBondHolder
TzaristBondHolder's picture

I think this is the best Reply to the post

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 02:13 | 1589291 Dirt Rat
Dirt Rat's picture

That's genius. But if I paid you to light a candle for BoA and you lit the candle, God might come down and smite us both. I've always read he doesn't like the moneychangers very much.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 02:01 | 1589281 TzaristBondHolder
TzaristBondHolder's picture


Safety boxes are different from deposits


Tue, 08/23/2011 - 06:28 | 1589432 Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

True, but access to the bank is access to the bank. If it's closed, you're hosed. So dont put anything in there you cant live without for the time it take to sort out a failed mega-institution

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 02:06 | 1589286 Ted K
Ted K's picture

You're not insinuating Bruce Berkowitz of Fairholme Fund fame is a dumb motherfucker who has taken hundreds or thousands of investors on a magical mystery tour because he invested in banks when in fact he doesn't know how to analyze financial institution balance sheets are you????

Gasp!!!! Double Gasp!!!

Does this now mean Irish CEOs like to blow smoke up dumbJew's ass or just that trying to do a ponzi scheme under the same name twice inside of a 3 year period is probably a bad idea (although I will give the poor bastard Berkowitz, in illiterate America, it WAS wortha try)

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 03:53 | 1589360 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

oh, bullshit! 

(respectfully, as not only tyler, but m.mehta is involved, ok?)  so:  let's dance!

1) if BAC is BK'd, what difference do their "reserves for fraud" make?  huh?
2) under dodd-frank (according to barney, as also reported on zH) read my lips:  no more bailouts!  now, maybe this is crapola in practice, but maybe we should try it, first, before we declare: "it's 2008, all over again!  trust me!"  wtf?  i may be wrong, and i also was born at night, but not last night, ok?
3) in other words, under the (new) law, nothing is TBTF, certainly no "corporation" every stinkin one of which has been designed to be BK'd, as even the shitheads from wharton may have heard.  in case of insolvency, break glass.  do not rinse, repeat
4) "a bankruptcy of Bank of America would be hundreds of times more severe than Lehman's";  so what?  who cares?  why do we own gold, cash, and stay the hell away from any and all paper?  b/c this "wealth" is backed by a) bullshit, b) horseshit, and c) puro shitto magnifico!  so, the gamblers' "wealth" disappears!  tough shitto!  'bout freaking time, too, eh?
5)  if the whole freaking ponzi of "interlocking directorates and balance sheets" gets a marine freaking haircut, GOOD!  GREAT! FANTASTICO,  BiCheZ!

i've abt had it with this crap, tyler!  please be advised
dude!  don't blow it on your freaking "party like it's 2008": we must have QE and bailouts or the system will fail self-non-fulfilling prophecy;
you've been right too much to be (potentially) this wrong, this way, this time;
corporations will fail;
a shitload of "wealth" is gonna go "up in smoke";
people with "the goobermint as a partner in paper tax-deferred totally used toilet paper"  are gonna get their asses handed to them.  again.  and the cat will freaking die, forever.  it will not bounce from dodd-frank.  benzelbub knows this.  he is in on it!  he helped them write the law, for pete's sake, tyler!   we're gonna start treating the cancer, or we're all gonna die from it, not just the stage IV zombie shelled-out-by-fraudster "must own" corporations;
trust me!  or fade me!  but do not bullshit slewie!  barney & the chairsatan have done such a bang-up job on me, that i'm almost certainly a hopeless case, at this point.  almost

it is not 2008, again!  i don't care who you are or  what you're on! 

it is 2011!

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 04:34 | 1589378 Transformer
Transformer's picture

Yeah, that's it, more quatitative easing.  That will solve things and get us out of this mess.  If we can just keep everything going for a while longer.



Tue, 08/23/2011 - 06:35 | 1589434 Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

" other words, under the (new) law, nothing is TBTF"

Maybe. But if you rewind to the mid-1990s, the FDIC Improvement Act was also supposed to stop the TBTF phenomenon by forcing regulators to take "prompt corrective action." No really, it was. (Cant have another S&L crisis costing the taxpayer hundreds of billions now can we.)

If we learned anything from 2008 (and the 1990s), when rules become inconvenient, they're ignored or overridden. It's just more expedient that way.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 07:16 | 1589462 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

ok, but if you had to state a preference as to who you would most likely wish to be right here, wouldn't it be slewie? 

and, no, we can't have another crisis costing the "taxpayers" big bux.  that is why it's gonna cost somebosy else big bux this time, and the Treasury will NOT be looted, again!  we paid at the IRS!  we took their debts and their crimes and covered them and said, ok, get this BiCh rollin, again.  and they can't.  why did they fail?  too much insolvency, too many zombies, too much fraud, waaay too much "criminality with zero consequences".  when this souffle collapses, the right people are gonna pay, this time, and then and only when, will be able to move on, together, as a nation.  or not.   you don't really want the "or not" do ya?  are you styooopid, or just insane?  neither, i hope!

"expedient" didn't work, dude!  it was the wrong expedient, and The People weren't confused for 10 seconds!   so (i hope) we're either gonna do it right, together, or we're all gonna fail, together.  nowhere to run;  nowhere to hide.  again:  any moron who hasn't taken the last 3 years to protect himself, deserves everything and anything he or she gets at this point.  fair enuf?  or don't you know?  yes or no.  maybe? 

if that's too simple for ya, because you understand "power in america", go fuk yerself!  you're just a part of the everlasting problem:  you know it, i know it, so "maybe" nothing is TBTF?

maybe?  you wouldn't know "expedient" if it crawled up yer ass & died

trust me! 

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 09:53 | 1589980 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

It didn't cost the taxpayers anything and never will. It is borrowed money that will never be repaid.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 09:07 | 1589736 prophet
prophet's picture

How then will he feed his infrastructure in order to enable the voices to be heard? 

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 09:51 | 1589967 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

You may not need it, you may not want it, but that doesn't mean you aren't going to get it.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 06:38 | 1589438 gwar5
gwar5's picture

BAC will be sacrificed on the TPTB alter.  They are the toxic waste dump for the 2008 crises.



Tue, 08/23/2011 - 07:09 | 1589463 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

This post seems to focus on the liability side of the balance sheet. I find the asset side to be much more suspect.


Let's take a look at those $1.36T in long term investments. $74B in goodwill? hahahahahahahaha That whole side is rotten.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 07:34 | 1589486 sunnyside
sunnyside's picture

So why did BAC buy Countrywide in the first place?  Everyone knew it was loaded with crap.  And Mozzillo still walks around with an orange smile on his face?



Tue, 08/23/2011 - 08:08 | 1589531 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Paulson had brought out his shiny new 12 Ga. Ithaca pump.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 08:59 | 1589709 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

because buying Countrywide was an ultimatum not a choice!

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 09:08 | 1589742 prophet
prophet's picture

I say this should be resolved.

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jasmine's picture

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tianya201's picture

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