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Visualizing Japan's Debt Crisis

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From the largest Japanese pension fund unwinding its JGB holdings to Kyle Bass' infamous 'debt-saturation Japan Trade' and Dylan Grice's original Japan funding crisis discussion, the nation - now facing Chinese dis-satisfaction over the recent island-purchase - continues to stagger with its Keynesian-endgame heading to a Koo-nesian disaster. The following info-graphic, via Informed Trades, provides everything the savvy investor needs to know about Debt/GDP, balance of payments, energy imports, demographics, and currency debasement.

 

Source: Informed Trades

 

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Sat, 09/15/2012 - 18:33 | 2799378 Michael
Michael's picture

Like I said before, ZH is going to run out of new topics trying to bury previous ones.

I have never seen so many topics posted here on a weekend back to back so fast..

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 18:35 | 2799381 LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

Trying to get it all out before the site gets shut down for national security reasons! LOL

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 18:40 | 2799389 Irelevant
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All you need is a group of JP Morgan employees setting ablaze the US Consulate in Zurich and Obama will call for immediate shut down if ZH as beying a threat to banking bonuses!

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 18:43 | 2799399 Manthong
Manthong's picture

 

 

So when does the shit hit the fan?
Will it come from Madrid  or Tehran?
Or Athens or Rome?
Or Bernank here at home?
I’m with Kyle,
Keep your eye on Japan.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 18:51 | 2799413 Michael
Michael's picture

They're all pissed off because the CIA/Mossad/MI5 money, disguised as foreign aid, to Libya, Pakistan, and Egypt is going to be cut off by the US Senate.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 19:17 | 2799432 Michael
Michael's picture

Complete and Total Worldwide Economic Collapse 2012

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WI8dfFN7H1w

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 00:57 | 2799922 TruthInSunshine
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While I will not disagree with the general structure of this overall thesis that is presented, I would be remiss to point out that I think it is incredibly disingenuous to state that "the yen has been steadily declining since May of 2012," without providing the context that the yen has also been on a massive tear against both the USD and the € for a decade now; so much so that Japanese manufacturers have been forced to offshore much of their production, whether automotive or electronics, because they can't possibly hope to make a profit or even break even by manufacturing those products within Japan.

It wasn't that long ago that 1 USD bought 140 yen, and today, 1 USD buys 79 yen.

I've pointed this fascinating and perplexing point out before.  No one seems to have a plausible explanation as to why/how the yen has surged so significantly against other major currencies at during a time when the Japanese Government and BOJ have been printing yen furiously, and even at a faster rate than many of the currencies the yen has appreciated in value against.

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 01:22 | 2799973 dunce
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All other things being equal(of course they never are) it looks like the relative strength of the yen is allowing them to buy oil priced in dollars at half price. Not that that will save them from big problems built in their debt and demographics for all that long. It seems to me that debt holders all over the world are facing monetization and since most of it will be govt. debt. , the financial system looks headed for collapse

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 13:09 | 2800705 Seer
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"No one seems to have a plausible explanation as to why/how the yen has surged so significantly against other major currencies at during a time when the Japanese Government and BOJ have been printing yen furiously, and even at a faster rate than many of the currencies the yen has appreciated in value against."

State/national debt is based on the notion of the citizens being able to repay such debt.  I'd proffer these reasons as to why the Yen is elevated:

1) The Japanese citizens are by and large savers (they have money)*;

2) The Japanese citizens are obedient.

* Obviously, this won't hold (but no one else is "holding" very well either; the Japanese are just standing on a more secure platform that's starting to sink.

If you are a creditor these reasons/traits would look a LOT better than those offered by other countries.

Things are, and will continue to, unravel for the Japanese at increasing rates. Without real, physical resources, esp energy, a country is really fucked. (and those who rely on exports of energy are also in peril as trade drops off because trade partners become increasingly unable to pay for energy imports)

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 18:52 | 2799414 Salah
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Always hits the fan with a national security concern.....i.e. Russia invades Georgia, August 2008...was "the event" that triggered the whole rotten house of MBS shit to collapse and the subsequent Lehman episode.

Watch for that NatSec "event". 

 

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 21:22 | 2799633 spdrdr
spdrdr's picture

Talking about what on Earth are you?

Please explain how a minor border skirmish in Eastern Europe directly caused the loss of value of MBS tranches sold in the U.S.A. 

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 16:04 | 2801112 Votewithabullet
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john cusacks "say anything" , there are no repercussions, ZH post yesterday said "china calls for war" (with japan) you read the post and and it turns out ONE FUCKING CHINOOK was holding a sign. Its the reason Rosie (who i respect) goes on cnbs regulary and gets his ass handed to him everytime, this MF is to big and too vast to be managed or regulated, or even sucessfully debated, ya kant gaht  thar from har...

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 18:42 | 2799397 AurorusBorealus
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It is well-known that the censors for the crown in France prohibited publication of the works of Enlightenment figures, but when the underground press published these books, the censors read them voraciously.  Voltaire, Montesquieu, Diderot, d'Alambert were never arrested and their books never confiscated or burned in any systematic way by the regime they were so critical of.  In large part, because those insidet the regime knew that the criticisms of the Enlightenment were precisely on target.  It didn't hurt that most of these men were men of great wit and could even make secret policeman laugh at themselves.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 20:28 | 2799539 OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
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There was a bookseller right outside the gates at Versailles. He carried copies of all of the above, plus Rousseau. Marie Antoinette was a frequent customer, though her tastes ran mostly to porno.

People forget that the French Revolution was not a bunch of peasants with pitchforks, it was upper-middle class and miinor aristocracy that were getting screwed by the 1% and were tired of it. The peasants with pitchforks & guillotines came later.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 23:31 | 2799859 AurorusBorealus
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It is ironic... is it not... the parallels between these internet bloggers, wikileaks, et al and the French enlightenment figures, the incredible similarities between the positions and actions of Bernanke and Richeliou.  The most striking parallel is that the great project of the Enlightenment, the encyclopedie, has been duplicated in our time with wikipedia.  Unfortunately, should the parallel continue (and there is no reason at all to suspect that it will not), the mobs, the guillotines, the pitchforks, and the reign of terror come next.  It was, after all, a drought and the failure of price controls on bread that sparked the revolution.  Uncanny...

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 13:21 | 2800731 Blizzard_Esq
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The revolution was long in coming from economic depression, endless wars, and higher and higher taxes....

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 23:34 | 2802185 andyupnorth
andyupnorth's picture

+ Frédéric Bastiat

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 18:52 | 2799401 Michael
Michael's picture

dito

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 18:49 | 2799410 seek
seek's picture

They (most likely ICE/DHS) could mess with the DNS, but ZH relocated their servers outside the country a few years ago, so they'll be slightly harder to kill.

For websites that might get disappeared I suggest a backup link direct to to the IPs. In ZH's case, those are http://178.209.48.14 and 178.209.48.13 (at the moment, it pays to check to make sure they've not changed.) They do a 302 redirect right right back to the zerohedge.com name now, but hopefully should something happen they'd change that to point to wherever they're working.

 

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 18:52 | 2799416 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Z/H will " NEVER be shut down"!  TOO many smart , [ carbon based' proxy servers] ;-]

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 07:47 | 2800190 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

At that point, Tyler Durden reveals himself to be a muslim, and all is forgiven.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 18:46 | 2799402 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Printing articles and opinions is much more benign than printing money.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 18:58 | 2799421 MountainGreenhouse
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What topic(s) are you trying to bury, you have sparked my curiosity now.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 19:22 | 2799442 lemonobrien
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all the topics are the same too; wondering which shoe wil drop first, or all at the same time. i think the world is in some strange equalibriam where everyone prints and tries to continue with the past. 

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 05:54 | 2800142 falak pema
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you make ZH sound like porn. But it does lack editorial focus. C'est la vie, nobody is picture perfect.

Its an unending flow of thoughts, not all of it relevant. But relevance is itself a subjective viewpoint and perspective.

I like the exuberance of irrelevant thought. Its better than the exuberance of financial malinvestment or military mayhem.

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 19:45 | 2801576 Seer
Seer's picture

"editorial focus"

You mean "censorship?"

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 18:35 | 2799380 LULZBank
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Nippon no economic Harakiri Bitchezz!!

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 18:37 | 2799383 Irelevant
Irelevant's picture

Exponential growth in the news cycle. Soon it will be the 1 hour news cycle!

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 18:48 | 2799406 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

I wonder what ill happen when high frequency news meets high frequency trading.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 19:08 | 2799427 Michael
Michael's picture

The commenter's tell me they love it when I call them out on the shit.

We aren't called Fight Club for no reason.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 18:48 | 2799404 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

This is nothing a mass die-off, followed by a beer summit can't fix.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 18:51 | 2799412 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

If Japan wants to keep those disputed islands it should build a faulty nuclear power plant there.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 18:54 | 2799419 Yen Cross
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 It's not about the rocks in the middle of the Ocean!  It's about control of shipping lanes that service international ports.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 21:14 | 2799619 Schmuck Raker
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I thought it was oil/gas in the area.

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 01:28 | 2799979 Cosimo de Medici
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Law of the Sea and the ability to enforce territorial limits.

Fish, oil, gas.

Then there's the traditional pissing contest amongst "friends".

Odds favor shots being fired---at sea or on land---within a week.  Given the Chinese propensity to copy others, I'm guessing a slain Japanese diplomat.  Hope not.

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 05:30 | 2800132 JamesBond
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china will send some half-water logged fishing boats into japanesae territoryial waters to piss them off in an effort to save face.  that will be the end of it.

jb

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 19:49 | 2801589 Seer
Seer's picture

You mean they have some that are That seaworthy? </sarc>

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 18:52 | 2799415 BlackholeDivestment
Sat, 09/15/2012 - 19:35 | 2799467 Ineverslice
Ineverslice's picture

Ramone-san Bitchez! 

Gambatte Nihon!

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 18:55 | 2799420 booboo
booboo's picture

younger Japanese are some weird motherfuckers now, you think our kids live in a fantasy land? Personally I don't think they have a chance, poor bastards don't have a clue. They will be assimilated into the Asian blob after the coming BIG war.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 19:19 | 2799440 The Shootist
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I'm disturbed by most of the anime and Chinpokemon that comes off that island. If the Chinese are smart, they'll at least use the Japonois for their technical know how.

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 06:36 | 2800157 Zero Debt
Zero Debt's picture

Asian blob?

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 15:12 | 2800951 John Wilmot
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East Asia of course...and don't forget comrade, Oceania has always been at war with East Asia.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 19:06 | 2799425 kito
kito's picture

One doesn't need to be a savvy investor to know spending wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy more than you earn is a formula for disaster............

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 19:56 | 2801605 Seer
Seer's picture

And definitely not as a policy (long-term)! (obviously you can spend short-term if it will provide a positive return)

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 19:07 | 2799426 JohnKozac
JohnKozac's picture

Time for Japan to start a war to distract their Sheeples.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 19:17 | 2799434 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

The U.S. banking cartel have taught them well.

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 08:14 | 2802618 matrix2012
matrix2012's picture

but sir please make sure that you'd picked the right 'fighting partner'... otherwise it's just a harakiri!

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 19:17 | 2799430 sunny
sunny's picture

Folks have been predicting the collapse of the Japanese system for years now.  Every 6 months or so another well known analyst will tell us that Japan is on its last legs.  One of these decades they will be right.  I for one will believe it when I see it.

sunny

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 20:00 | 2801614 Seer
Seer's picture

"I for one will believe it when I see it."

What, someone being right?, or travel to see the carnage yourself?  And if you did travel, would you really know if you saw it?  And if you didn't see it then does that mean that it couldn't happen?

FUCK!  I'm tying to figure out who it is that's going to provide THE inside skinny here!

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 19:17 | 2799433 The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

So I just flipped by Bubble Vision's "money in motion," and some schmuck just said, "I don't know who's crazier, Peter Schiff or Ben Bernanke."

My thoughts -You sir, have lost the privelage to speak.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 19:26 | 2799449 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Long Live " John Waynes" ghost!  The "Shootist" , exeplified' John Waynes' fight with " lung cancer", and he still made that movie knowing , he was filming his own demise!

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 20:02 | 2801619 Seer
Seer's picture

Don't confuse the character with the actor...  Actually, BOTH served the System well (just like Ronnie).

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 19:23 | 2799446 Black Markets
Black Markets's picture

Japan will be just fine.

It's a land of obedient conformists. A place where blue chip CEO's cry their eyes out on national TV and beg for apology because of the SHAME they feel when they screw up.

If their govt tells its citizens to buy up the national debt, they will, even if it's a losing trade.

Can you imagine that in the west?

Japan's problems aren't it's debt. It's getting somebody to make a decision.

Culturally impossible to get them to take bold decisions.

Instead they hold endless meetings where committees discuss the options they have long after the obvious option has become widely acknowledged and just needs someone to commit.

They can spend 6 months meeting about a decision that was obvious after 40 minutes of discussion.

Frustrating!

Nobody in Japan has taken a bold decision since the raid on Pearl Harbour, a decision which ultimately resulted in their capital city being atomised.

Repercussions don't get much worse than that!!
And you guys think Greenspan screwed up!!

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 19:33 | 2799460 phoolish
phoolish's picture

Japan will not be "just fine."  Unless they can do without Honshu.  Fukushima took care of that.

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 00:20 | 2799911 Hangfire
Hangfire's picture

Tokyo was not atomized, just fire bombed into oblivion!   

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 05:19 | 2800123 Vlad Tepid
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Actually, I think the last bold decision made by a Japanese was when Mishima Yukio gutted himself on national television to protest what he saw his country becoming.  Poets always foretell coming doom.  Wait, Kurt Cobain killed himself when?  Ohhh, we're in trouble.

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 20:08 | 2801644 Seer
Seer's picture

And in the US only a handful of people make the "decisions," and do so promptly!

Difference? Japanese at least have enough money to close out their debts...

NOTE: No defense of the Japanese intended, they're fucked (small island, lots of aging people and with very little in the way of natural resources [highly energy dependent]).

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 19:31 | 2799457 phoolish
phoolish's picture

Japan has not "paid the price" for their practices because they are a colony of the United States Banks.  It has been extremely convienient for the Banks to have "Japan" for the last 30 years.  If it hadn't been so convienient Japan would have been Argentina'ed a long time ago.  Once the colony of Japan outwears its usefulness to the Banks it willbe 'let go,'

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 19:40 | 2799471 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

Unit 731.............

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_731

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 05:20 | 2800125 Vlad Tepid
Vlad Tepid's picture

No relevance to this thread, but ok.

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 17:15 | 2801278 Kobe Beef
Kobe Beef's picture

Dear Vlad,

I see you're posting on this thread. Do you happen to know who owns the Bank of Japan? I've asked Japanese from lawyers, to politicians, to businessmen, to bankers, to economic professors, and nobody has any idea. It's disturbing, to say the least. If you know who, or how to find out, please share.

Sincerely,

Beef

Mon, 09/17/2012 - 05:55 | 2802498 Vlad Tepid
Vlad Tepid's picture

That's a very, very good question and one which I do not know the answer to entirely myself.  I do konow that they are answerable to the Japanese Diet and their governors are confirmed by them but not appointed by them.  My limited knowledge of Japanese central banking policy tends to support the theory that their governors just rise up through the ranks of the bureaucracy.  They are usually economist/bureaucrats and very rarely actual bankers.

I do know that they are publicly traded on the Japanese securites exchange though I've never considered buying and I don't know how much of the "public ownership" is for show and how much is real.  The big question and the main one you are asking is "Who owns the rest/majority stake."  I do not know.  It is not the Japanese government or the Ministry of Finance.  Disturbing now that you think of it.  I'll start doing a little more study.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 19:33 | 2799463 Nippon Flyer
Nippon Flyer's picture

As an expat here are some observations:

 

Students spend their whole lives memorizing answers to tests despite being mindless robots.

Corporations spend years developing policy, regulations, etc. however when an issue surfaces outside of the box everyone hides behind said policy further making the small issue much worse.

When trying to explain the bizzare culture to guests I take them out for an experiment I developed myself.  Walk up to any group of young, old, male, or female Japanese and ask them what their favorite pizza is.  This will lead to long stares and tilted heads and you can actually let this go for as long as you wish but with some coaching and coercion someone will finally repeat what you just said to them hoping it's the right answer.  Immediately the rest of the group will nervously all agree with strong conviciton.

This may sound harsh but I've never seen such a freak show in all my life.

And yes, I can speak the language for those of you thinking it must be a communicaton problem.

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 05:24 | 2800128 Vlad Tepid
Vlad Tepid's picture

Maybe they just don't like talking to you.  Since you claim to speak the language, you must also know that Japanese people don't like being approached at random and being asked anything, period.  And rather than telling you to get the fuck out of their face with stupid questions, they make an effort to prevent you from (in their eyes) losing face by them telling you to pound sand.  Rather than mocking them, you should be grateful.

Incidentally, most Japanese people I know prefer Pizza-La.  God only knows why.  Now if you want to comment on their propensity for putting squid and potatoes on pizza, yes I will gtrant you the "freak show" comment.

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 11:41 | 2800553 LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

Did you ask them in Japanese?

They do get like that when a foreigner speaks to them in their language.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 19:41 | 2799466 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

 

From Blackmarkets:  "If their govt tells its citizens to buy up the national debt, they will, even if it's a losing trade.

Can you imagine that in the west?"

You're kidding ,right?  Here in the West, our blue eyed (and brown eyed etc) boys willingly sign up when some ass in the WH straps a flag pin to his lapel and says we need to go kill terr'ists.  They come home with half a body left or in a body bag or just plain fucked up while oil companies and defense contractors owned by multi-national corporations profit and not a single real U.S. interest is served.  I'd prefer that our government told us to buy worthless bonds.

 

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 19:42 | 2799473 Chump
Chump's picture

I'd prefer the government quit fucking telling us to do anything.

Que your latest rant against librarians...

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 19:44 | 2799477 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Right -- there are only two choices:  corrupt government or no government.  It is absolutely impossible for human beings to self-govern in a meaningful way so we should all just run amok.    Is that why you call yourself chump?

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 20:51 | 2799574 Chump
Chump's picture

False dichotomy and ad hominem are fun.  I am not an anarchist, you ignorant slut.  Although, the larger, more intrusive, and outright scary the current government gets, the easier I may be persuaded.

Best of luck to you, though, getting more government to fix some total bullshit that other government entities are totally complicit in, and are having some other part of the government actively conspire to sweep under the rug.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 21:40 | 2799659 CharlieSDT
CharlieSDT's picture

What's wrong with librarians?

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 23:15 | 2799835 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

they are great.  Except the chumps.

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 20:20 | 2801701 Seer
Seer's picture

BIG = FAIL!

Show me anywhere where nature allows something to continue to get BIGGER.

Power corrupts.  This is as good a societal law as are the laws of gravity for the physical sciences.  Again, show me ANYWHERE where there has at ANY TIME been any govt of any measurable size (above small tribal levels) that has not been corrupt(ed) or came to some cataclysmic end.

And for all those anti-govt people looking to boot govt so that they can get their pet entity/religion/cult/whatever in place, same fucking thing for you too!

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 19:43 | 2799470 FiatFapper
FiatFapper's picture

I don't get it, can someone explain the validity of these doom 'n gloom articles in laymen's terms please.

Japan has been printing for decades, so why can't they continue the facade for another 20 years?

USDJPY has a six week window to print historic lows on the monthly time frame. From a technical point of view, there's a 23.6% last-chance fib breach target on the bullish engulfing mother candle from feb '12; this suggests yen strength as the dollar has won the race to debase.

If USDJPY does breach this floor @ 75, then there's no reason why ~25 isn't possible.

There is no limit to the serfdom and only when banksters are demanding the virginity of your daughter(s), will people perhaps say enough is enough, it's time for the brazen bull.

So what's the agenda with google-bombing 'Japan's Debt Crisis' when it's the dollar that's doing the damage.

Is Tyler #34,673 Kyle Bass?

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 19:49 | 2799479 phoolish
phoolish's picture

I explained that above.  Japan is not "independent."  It is a colony of the US Banking Indistry and in that role has served them richly for decades.

 

Things make much more sense when viewed from this POV.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 21:23 | 2799637 canary
canary's picture

Bankjsters have been demanding the virginity of  your daughters, for a couple of decades now.  And STILL you do nothing.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 21:34 | 2799652 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

"I don't get it, can someone explain the validity of these doom 'n gloom articles in laymen's terms please."

Try - http://www.zerohedge.com/news/some-words-advice-kyle-bass - for a start.

The video link has expired, so try finding him on YouTube.

 

Hugh Hendry is worth a listen too, though IIRC he's more Korean focused.

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 20:36 | 2801773 Seer
Seer's picture

Jumping over a very tall cliff is painful.  That's my forecast.  If you doubt this outcome then I suggest you try/prove it for yourself.

You have to start from the fundamentals in order to properly understand a trajectory.  Japan is an island, and it has very limited physical resources.

Next, GROW the population.

Can't see where this is leading?  Take off yer blinders!

MY wife was asking me the other day why Singapore was doing so well.  Huh? I said...  That's what some of her friends/contacts were telling her.  I said that I didn't think that anyone was necessarily doing well.  I then proceeded to investigate.  Look up demographics and energy imports, that's all you really need to know to determine how well a given country is doing.  Favorable demographics provides the feeling that things are moving forward, what with all the younger invigorated people that should be a pretty standard function.  And then when you look at imports of energy and see that the country is importing at exponential rates, well...  Go ahead, try this with Japan.  Try it with South Korea.  I'll say this, in comparison to several other surrounding countries Japan's demographics, coupled with their growth in energy imports, is VERY scary looking.

Japan isn't going to eliminate their energy shortages with nuclear energy, or anything else they can brew locally.  And with their demographics I'm not seeing how they're going to increase their revenues, most certainly not like say the Philippines does (which has a lot younger population, one that foreign nations hire [which results in remittances home- this makes up 10% of the Philippine's GDP!

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 19:56 | 2799490 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Afghans (not dogs) came close to capturing one of those filthy English elites. Harry who was probably out child molesting on the channel islands before he arrived at a military base to look for marines to screw narrowly escaped death. Several marines were not as fortunate. Anyhow they, the globalist haters, failed to get the mutant bankster kid. Harry remains at large.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 20:49 | 2799570 dolph9
dolph9's picture

Demographics is an area where nobody can quite agree what the answer is.

Is Japan right...a falling population with no inclination whatsoever to allow immigration...or is America right, a nation which thinks that allowing massive immigration from the south so that we have 400 million, then 500 million, then 1 billion people, is the right thing?  And if you object you are either a pessimist or a racist.

 

I personally think Japan is more right, but the answer is probably somewhere in between.

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 02:45 | 2800028 Martel
Martel's picture

Since the U.S. was a country of immigration from the very beginning, Americans in general do neither understand nor like the European, Japanese etc. mindset in this issue. Japanese consider you Japanese only if you are born out of Japanese parents. Second or third generation Koreans in Japan are still considered Korean.

Sure, if a country offers a promise of a better standard of living, it may benefit from allowing a mass immigration, preferably talented people. What it gains in economy it loses in its (original) culture, though. Human beings are tribal by nature. At which point in time does the U.S. Southwest cease being American and start being Mexican? That may not be a relevant question, since by that time the original inhabitants are long gone, replaced by sons and daughters of immigrants. They have their own interpretation of what the U.S. should look like.

If you want to preserve something, don't allow mass immigration. If you want your people to be "we", don't allow mass immigration. The jury is still out on the American experiment.

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 21:03 | 2801864 Seer
Seer's picture

I think that "demographics" is just a measure.  And, really, we have to ask ourselves what it is that is the goal.  That is, what are the winning chips, really?

Any country that is growing and has a negative trade balance is in trouble.  Any country that might be shrinking and has a positive trade balance might be in a bit better position.  I know that countries such as the Philippines export a lot of their younger workers abroad, which helps their GDP (total remittances, can't really parse out how much is from temporary work abroad from those who have permanently relocated, is something like 10% [beats a negative 10%!]).

All, however, is but a slice of time.  Given a small enough time slice just about anything could be shown to look good (or even bad).

I think that the word "balance" is important.  "Balance" is clearly more preferable than imbalance, not matter if measured as positive or negative, since nothing stays static it's a sure bet that correction will take place: you going to buy high or low? (a negative balance can really at worst go to zero)  I'd prefer to use the word "sustainable," but it appears that this is a trigger word for some folks here (and elsewhere) who knee-jerk to it, claiming that it's some sort of socialist/leftist buzz word or something (hey, suppose it gives justification for not taking action, and if that's someone's proclivity then that's their choice).

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 21:22 | 2799634 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Japan has fewer problems than us.  Their debt is owed internally.  They hold the world's second largest foreign currency reserves.   They can buy California and move there en masse.  The aging population is countered by enormous investments in R&D so that robots will do all the work.  They do not have the burden of mass immigration, unemployment, and crime.  They do not have a welfare problem.  They do not have to learn 15 languages.  They are experiencing deflation which means that their savings goves further every year.   People are blowing smoke about everyone elses problems to take American's minds off of their dismal plight.

 

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 21:42 | 2799660 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

"People are blowing smoke about everyone elses problems to take American's minds off of their dismal plight."

Yes, that is certainly very true. BUT it doesn't invalidate the arguments supporting the view that everybody else is ALSO (if not equally) screwed.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 21:45 | 2799665 BigInJapan
BigInJapan's picture

Price inflation everywhere you look in Japan. . . Welfare recipients climbing at a huge rate - so much so that young couples are divorcing, with the father moving next door, all so the mother can collect welfare benefits. . . R&D budgets pretty much don't exist outside of commie government programs. Show me something innovative that has come out of Japan in the past four years. . . One fucking thing to make me say, "Oh yeah!" Unemployment, real unemployment is climbing and the elderly are responsible for an INCREASE in the crime rate. Wages and salaries have fallen off a cliff. . . People live in internet cafes. . . Get it through your heads, there is no deflation in Japan outside of the stock market. Oh yeah, Japan is just fine. . .

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 23:14 | 2799833 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Yee gawds man.  Japan's unemployment rate is 5.5%.  Ours is about 22%.  They have no external debt. We owe 50% of the GDP.  We're screwed.  They will hobble along acting all depressed.

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 18:05 | 2801405 Kobe Beef
Kobe Beef's picture

I think the Diversity killed more people in Chicago last weekend than Japan's done all year. Japan's got 99 problems but USA-level crime ain't one.

 

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 21:44 | 2799666 bigwavedave
bigwavedave's picture

True. Japan has a demographic problem. The people who own all the debt are going to die. End of debt. Or the Emporer just asks everyone to give up their claims for the good of the nation. And they will.

Sat, 09/15/2012 - 21:47 | 2799669 Unbezahlbar
Unbezahlbar's picture

Stuck on Zero is correct. Their population is very homogenous yet super intelligent. The need for "Diversity" is a myth as proved by Japan and not necessary for progress.  It's odd they woudl provoke a fight with their largest trading partner. China has repeatedly stressed peaceful solution and sharing of these resources from what I have read.  My guess is behind the scenes in Japan the usual culprits are pushing for war---bankers and the far right. Just a hunch. They must have a very developed right wing since they have spent Billions on their military despite the depressing economy. Sort of like Russia spending on guns instead of butter until it collapsed.

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 21:10 | 2801885 Seer
Seer's picture

"They are experiencing deflation which means that their savings goves further every year."

WARNING!  Don't look at the charts that show their energy imports skyrocketing!  This is a death signature.

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 05:27 | 2800130 JamesBond
JamesBond's picture

Dylan Grice's essay was written in Jan 2010 ....  and Japan continued its financial slog and is still slogging.... with no

slog endgame in sight.....  japan's jump-the-shark moment is a decade away

 

jb

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 07:26 | 2800178 Zgangsta
Zgangsta's picture

Japan's ambassador to China died just days after being assigned to the post.  But don't worry, the police assure us that absolutely no foul play at all was involved, certainly not by a Chinese agent...

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 08:56 | 2800228 billwilson
billwilson's picture

The solution to at least part of the Japan problem is .... WOMEN.

 

Most Japanese women do not work after marriage. This has led a) to a smaller workforce than is possible and b) fewer Japanese women getting married and having kids.

 

SO000000 ... by getting women back into the workforce and improving benefits for women with kids (yeah I know big social chnage ... but a crsis can solve that) Japan has a potential path to at least some growth.

Sun, 09/16/2012 - 22:03 | 2802009 Darkness
Darkness's picture

This thesis requires Japan to keep its nuclear power plant off for the forseeable future. I doubt they would say that they would choose to keep this plants offline rather then hitting a worse, major, recession. 

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