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Visualizing Where The Pain Is: Summary Of Biggest Exposures To Italy

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Yesterday's Barclays report that Italy is past the point of no return was very prescient. As of today, nobody can deny that Italy is about to drag the entire Eurozone down unless the ECB can come up with a real plan to monetize the debt, as opposed to backing some retarded contraption such as the EFSF which only the criminally stupid eurocrats can conceive, and which even the perpetually optimistic market has seen right through at this point. In other words: print. Lots. So until Mario Draghi gets off the phone with the corner office at 200 West for instructions on how to best proceed, here is a visual summary courtesy of Reuters, of where the max pain is concentrated. Needless to say, we are all so lucky that French banks managed to sell off their exposure to unwitting bagholders who took the sticky EURUSD as an all clear signal, instead of what it was this entire time: a side-effect of EUR repatriation as French banks were dumping USD-denominated assets and shoring up capital.

Source: Reuters

 

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Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:29 | 1860331 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Hence your previous article: CONTAGION

I think most of us get it, may I ask who is most exposed to Frenchy? Never mind, I see now...

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:47 | 1860435 philosoraptor
philosoraptor's picture

Who is most exposed to Italian debt? The French.

Who is most exposed to French debt? The UK.

Who is most exposed to UK debt? The US.

Plus, the Germans take podium positions on all the above.

Roll up, roll up, place your bets on the sequence of the domino reckoning...

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 10:09 | 1860530 FMR Bankster
FMR Bankster's picture

Yup, game over.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:32 | 1860342 HD
HD's picture

How much time does the ECB realistically have to pull this off? Days? Weeks? Or is this a 2012 event?  How long before markets realize the math is impossible.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:36 | 1860377 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

It appears to be happening right now.  I mean, we've known this stuff for weeks, but "duh market" seems to be coming to terms with it today.  Funny how we just randomly gap down after days of ignoring the problem.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:47 | 1860426 HD
HD's picture

I would love that to be true. However, We've been here before too many times. Rumors, hopium and intervention always seem to pull it back from the brink. I have no reason to believe it won't happen again today. I just wonder how much longer they can keep it up.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:53 | 1860462 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Dow futures off 244 ... and thats an improvement from earlier.

Gold making another run at $1,800 but is buried in paper... as usual.

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=YM

interesting times

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:58 | 1860485 HD
HD's picture

"interesting times"

  That, my friend, is an understatement.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 10:44 | 1860669 BanksterSlayer
BanksterSlayer's picture

It was also a Chinese Curse rather than a Chinese Proverb. Those Chinese are awfully smart. Also the #3 shareholder of the IMF, according to Christine Lagarde's speech yesterday.

;-)

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:38 | 1860394 CH1
CH1's picture

How long before markets realize the math is impossible.

Never!

They'll look away until they're living in filth, then blame someone (Jews being the perennial favorites), then beg for a strongman to steal it all back for them.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:45 | 1860424 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Main Street USA doesn't really know this problem exists.

But Benny et al are aware.

This may well be his last opportunity to print before the pitchforks start showing up. 

I'm going to have to go look up write-in candidacies laws.  Seems like a nation wide write-in might be the best bet to beat whom ever the Republicans and Denocrats put forth.  Tyler ... you available? 

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 10:24 | 1860600 island
island's picture

Consider supporting Bill Still - writer of "The Money Masters" and "The Secret of Oz"

He is running for the Libertarian candidacy slot.

http://still2012.com/

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:58 | 1860486 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

We haven't seen Ben's bag o' tricks yet to put the US taxpayer/dollar on the hook for the whole caboose. Definitely 2012.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 12:45 | 1861202 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Not if he loves his kneecaps.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:28 | 1860344 Irish66
Irish66's picture


Goldman Sachs (GS) says net funded credit exposure to Italy is USD 700mln and gross funded credit exposure to Italy USD 2.32bln, exposure includes sovereign, financials and corps.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:38 | 1860389 rajeev
rajeev's picture

I apreciate the insight in the report, which said Euro is making a dead cat bounce because of repartriation. I salute the analytical capacity. Great work!

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:38 | 1860390 rajeev
rajeev's picture

I apreciate the insight in the report, which said Euro is making a dead cat bounce because of repartriation. I salute the analytical capacity. Great work!

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:39 | 1860396 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Yes, yes...but when parsing any statement out of any US bank regarding exposure to European debt, you must use a multiple of at least 5.  Remember, this is the criminal syndicate, and they lie perpetually to buy time on their dumb ass moves.

You can bet big against them, as it is almost certain that ALL of them have been caught swinging for the fences on yield, shifting their positions to off balance sheet "tools".  Everything since 2008 remains the same because, of course, they were bailed out instead of taking the hit they deserved.

Confessions are already coming out of the European banks regarding hits taken on this bad debt.  The US will follow, and when they finally confess, that is when you take your short positions off.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:29 | 1860347 Bodhi
Bodhi's picture

We all have a little of our neighbor's feces in our own closet. 

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:41 | 1860410 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

Remind me never to visit your neighborhood.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:30 | 1860351 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

A great thing about globalization is that you can trade US leveraged index ETF's off Italian bonds.

 

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:30 | 1860353 paulie
paulie's picture

"Now I have a machine gun, oh oh oh"

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:41 | 1860412 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

I don't know how this relates but...

Yipee ki yay, MF global.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:30 | 1860354 qussl3
qussl3's picture

FrAAnce.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:40 | 1860401 ATM
ATM's picture

FrFnce

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:41 | 1860408 ATM
ATM's picture

GerFany

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:42 | 1860416 ATM
ATM's picture

U-F-A

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:30 | 1860357 1835jackson
1835jackson's picture

Bond vigilantes: "SHOW ME THE MONEY!!!!!!!!!"

ECB: “Patience… we need a crisis first…dumb asses” 

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:38 | 1860392 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, wait until it gets to the lebowski point - where's my money lebowski?

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:33 | 1860364 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Well, at least we don't have to worry about this contagion spreading to Iceland.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:34 | 1860370 AngryGerman
AngryGerman's picture

that non-bank private is a lot! what is that?

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:36 | 1860379 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Question; "that non-bank private is a lot! what is that?"

Answer; "Where money goes to die."    Essentially the gas chamber of fiat currency.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:47 | 1860434 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

The Rothschild's family holdings.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 12:48 | 1861215 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Oh, let's hope.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:35 | 1860373 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

This is what "winning" looks like with an eCONomy that relies on infinite growth with finite resources.

hedge accordingly.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:38 | 1860393 youngman
youngman's picture

Where is the CDS graph?  That is a few trillion more...or less....or if this is ruled a non event...zero......looks like the ECB is buying...can they go to trillions?   The bankers want it...the Politicians want it...what is a treaty or two...

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:38 | 1860395 TooRichtoCare
TooRichtoCare's picture

Warriors.....come out to plaaaaay

Warriors.....come out to plaaaaaaaaay

Warrriors.....come out to plaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay !!!

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:40 | 1860403 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

Would someone start bombing Iran already?

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:41 | 1860407 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

What is the french word for "shart"?

LMAO that Blackrock said this morning: "Italian yields do not reflect country fundamentals".

Moral Hazard again as they were double fisting Italian bonds counting on a bailout. 

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:41 | 1860409 Fazzie
Fazzie's picture

Kudos to ZH for calling the EU collapse a long time ago and correctly calling all the intervening shuck and jive parlor tricks of the ECB and pals for what they were,ie, a desperate attempt of the unelected banksters of the world to keep the status quo fleecing of the middle class in full swing.

 A person watching CNBC all this time, by comparison would probably be of the mindset that "nobody, I mean nobody could have saw this coming".

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 10:14 | 1860556 FMR Bankster
FMR Bankster's picture

Just made the mistake of turning up the sound on CNBC. Cramer is absolutely freaking out. "SOMEBODY MUST STEP FORWARD RIGHT NOW TO STOP THIS." "SOMEBODY MUST BE CHURCHILL TODAY." "THEY MUST BUY BONDS AND DRIVE YIELDS LOWER." Funnier than hell.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 12:54 | 1861233 francis_the_won...
francis_the_wonder_hamster's picture

I missed the Cramer freak-out.  Somebody PLEASE post a link to a replay of that.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:41 | 1860411 campag
campag's picture

All this weakness in bonds is known news its too old to called old news. At some stage 3.00pm stocks will bounce like yesterday .Bears be warned!

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:45 | 1860423 Roy T
Roy T's picture

CNBC just announced that Greece will appoint a new PM at 10 AM EST.

Rally time!

snark off

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:54 | 1860464 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Greece is over.

 Its now frogs-n-wops.

 

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:41 | 1860413 Belarus
Belarus's picture

The machines are going to be busy today. Expect the worst of the downturn to be over in futures. The machines don't wake up until the market's open and Europe closes. BTFD. 

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:42 | 1860414 radarsentinel
radarsentinel's picture

France should get good money for their Treasuries today but then what will they have left?Oh, shit.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:45 | 1860425 mm17101978
mm17101978's picture

Non-private bank debt owed by Italy to France should include (I guess Reuters included this elephant in the room in its calculations) years of unapid electricity imported by Enel into Italy from France (at least since 2001, as far as I was told a while ago). Moreover, if I recall correctly, out of about 1920 billion Euros (Italy's public debt excluded the usual enormous unfunded liabilities) Italy owes to France (for one reason or another) about 511 billion Euros. Meanwhile here in Rome, banks keep robbing people and corporations more and more aggressively (even a 10-euro charge for a bounced cheque is a matter of survival for....not to name anyone in particular........Intesa Sanpaolo). Will this country make it to 1/1/2012 without defaulting? It's the only way to, perhaps, clean up this 150-year-old place that has steadily become Europe's biggest debt hole.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:47 | 1860438 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Looks like we are going to get confirmed breakouts in both TIP and TLT today.

Unfortunately, nobody on this board was prepared to participate in a generational bond bull market extending beyond 35 years.

Stocks will crater for a few days, but it will only be a matter of time before 50-year record low interest rates will entice speculators to belly back up to the casino table and start chasing stocks with a vengeance.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:55 | 1860471 mt paul
mt paul's picture

walrus ...

are more fun to  chase 

than stocks ...

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:56 | 1860481 Belarus
Belarus's picture

I agree Robo, but TBT will outperform the stock market. So frontrun just once my man....and go long TBT when the 1o year hits 1.7%. At that point, and when Nov. 23rd becomes a disaster, there will be nowhere safe to run, and Gold will outperform everything from there......

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:56 | 1860482 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

You'll have the coolest IOUs on the block.

Collect the whole set (for posterity)!

 

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 10:19 | 1860576 FMR Bankster
FMR Bankster's picture

But they don't issue the actual bonds anymore. And brokerage statements don't look all that great as wallpaper.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:52 | 1860454 ndotken
ndotken's picture

so if the EuroBanks are unloading their troubled-country garbage bonds ... who in their right mind (or not so right mind) is buying it up?

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:55 | 1860474 El Yunque
El Yunque's picture

I have to say in my limited west Texas wisdom, that as more of the abjectly stupid buy increasingly expensive PM's, that now might be a good time to build a Herb Cain style 24,000 volt fence around a few stock tanks, and a warehouse full of MRE's.

At some point in the future, I'm thinking the fire sale on gold for water and dehydrated shit exchange rate is going to be looking pretty good.

We sure fucked this up: If you don't tax anybody, and nobody is going to admit in public that shit has to get built and paid for, I suppose gold suppositories infused with radium is a blessing.

Then again, leave it to a banker to eat the damn things.

ORE-oh (Occupy Return Envelopes) - the only way to redirect our tax dollars from banks back into the USPS. They pay the postage, you get rid of your trash, one 25 cent envelope at a time. Hell, maybe we'll even get junk mail on Sundays when the USPS is back in black.

How long does a loaf of Italian bread last in a zero humidity, dusty west Texas warehouse?

Holy shit.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 09:59 | 1860493 G-R-U-N-T
Wed, 11/09/2011 - 10:00 | 1860499 glepo
glepo's picture

let the banks fail

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 10:11 | 1860531 Commander Cody
Commander Cody's picture

So, China didn't join the party.  What, no solid investment in the great EZ?  C'mon guys, belly up!

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 18:58 | 1860586 CitizenPete
CitizenPete's picture

So lets see... your the manager of a soverign wealth fund in China: you should A) invest in your own region in Asian economies that will help sustain or stabalize Chinas manufacturing sector; B) invest in countries that provide much needed energy and commodity resources (like Russia, Canada and Australia) and without the threat of tarrifs; or C) Invest in the largest group of failed welfare economies as they slip into a bankster credit quagmire toward who knows what ...  

Belly up and what? -- do a large shot of PIIG piss?

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 10:13 | 1860545 CitizenPete
CitizenPete's picture

Now is the time for more Au.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 10:15 | 1860560 Fake Jim Quinn
Fake Jim Quinn's picture

Anyone want to speculate on what happens when there is general and systematic debt destruction? PMs? Other hard assets? Bonds? Stocks? We all probably agree this is going to happen, the question is what is the result? Can central banks print enough to offset this kind of debt destruction?

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 10:22 | 1860595 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

Can they?  The simple answer is: They have to.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 10:50 | 1860689 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

It's a fussion reaction. atomic bond will cause the earth to disappear forever. 2012!

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 12:04 | 1860999 ivars
ivars's picture

It seems that finally this DJIA prediction chart has sprung into action-and about the time it should have.

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&sta...

Happy ride down the slope...

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 13:51 | 1861465 Scrilla
Scrilla's picture

What exactly are the holders behind the French "non-bank private" sector? Seems pretty substantial.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 13:51 | 1861466 Scrilla
Scrilla's picture

What exactly are the holders behind the French "non-bank private" sector? Seems pretty substantial.

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