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VIX Plunges To 5 Year Low
VIX at its lowest (sub-14%) since Summer 2007...
and the Volatility term structure, its steepest EVER...
Short-term volatility (risk) is the lowest relative to medium-term risk EVER - is this the biggest ever levered bet on FOMC calmness into European election event risk? Or more technically is this late forced unwinds of legacy long vol/steepeners into the Greece March 20th event risk (which seemed like a decent trade looking for a risk-flare). Given the steepness of the rest of the curve, it certainly feels very technical (flow) driven.
Charts: Bloomberg
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The Vixens are getting ready to ........
Oh no. I'll get the stuff ready...we're goin over 13000.
i heard we were going over 36000
I voted for Dr Paul and 24 of his delegates today in Alabama. It would be nice to vote again for him in the General.
Alas, I fear it is too late.
Death was pronounced in 2008.
Just waiting for bowel evacuation of corpse.
You, sir, have a brilliant grasp of both the situation and the english language. Well played and nicely put.
Wow- we are up 78! This is AWESOME!!!!!!!
#Winning
Thank you.
Like my namesake.American mother..Hoever Swiss anglophile father..
English public school.not Eton.
Never forget about the last bastion of voters choice, the WRITE IN vote.
I'll be writing his name in when I vote.
Your pseudonym is very apropos.
Do the Diebold machines have a spot for write-ins? Because the only way I will vote this year is if I can put in my own name.
mickey fucking mouse.
Video: Santorum recommends voting for Ron Paul
Teh lulz, hahahaha.
We can't find a fix, so let's play with the vix. CBOE, criminal bitchezz of evil.
Some cheap f'ing puts is how I see it...
no shit!
i have seen puts 150,000K! thats normal
even ice melts.
Greece defaults (the moment of supposed disaster) and the world decides that there is now less voltaility than ever.
Hurrah!
Hurrah for central planning! Hurrah for big government! Hurrah for socialism to save capitalism! Newly-printed 010101110001010100101 for everyone!
That's what a recovery looks like, extension and pretension!
Meanwhile, back in the real world...
YEA amazing isnt it....the 'What can never be spoken' moment Greek default happened, and no one even batted an eye. But for TWO YEARS we were told we had to bail it out and support it and do whatever it took to fix it because a default would be SO terrible and all...just been played by the criminals big time.
A big thanks to our controlled media: "nothing to see here"
well said
If the vix and it's variations are so low why do I keep reading that they are still at a substantial premium to NAV therefore implying that the still could have a way to go on the downside?
dont worry SKEW and CSFB do not imply much LOL
http://content.screencast.com/users/wprosser/folders/Jing/media/1efa2d46...
http://content.screencast.com/users/wprosser/folders/Jing/media/2a12b249...
double top in spx, downward wedge in vix, back up the truck!
Yep...VIX time compression trade. Grab the front month.
Skew is 139 an a quarta. It's only been higher one time, and not by much. Not so sure VIX is still reliable, but there's nothing else.
think of VIX as a CDS against equity shock:
in my perspective, the higher the stocks go from now on (am thinking this is the top because of volume) the more investors will be attracted to hedge their risk, so i think we will reach a stage where stocks are in the green, and the vixes are also in the green..
I'm trying to resist the urge to trade paper, but my inner bear is restless.
double top in spx, downward wedge in vix, back up the truck!
Let us wax poetic:
Double top in spx,
Downward wedge in vix;
Back up the Truck
You dumb fuck,
And give Bens' backside some licks.
I'm of the view that yesterday and today's action in the VIX is the culmination of the bottoming process that it has been undergoing for a couple weeks.
And we don't believe that it can move sideways for long in the current environment.
It's too bad the VXX is such a terrible vehicle but there are certainly other volatility plays to consider. Tough not to be long equities right now but on the other hand some kind of hedging is clearly in order here and going long volatility in some form could certainly be an option to consider.
Cheers!
Curtis
Market Madness
Market Madness Metals
so puts can be bought quite cheaply.
All I know is, China built 9 milllion cars in 2009 and 18 million in 2011, just 2 years later. This idea that oil and gas is up only temporary is a complete load of crap. The wealth of the world has moved from the US to China ..and like lightening, it'll strike that the masses realize it.
Thats how I see it. While most everyone believes theres '3 years till somethin happens' or whatever, I believe the opposite, this will be brought down by some 'event' out of left field 'no one saw comin' and gives perfect cover for the FED banksters as they make off with all the loot and leave Avg Joe retail investor broke.
http://www.amazon.com/Retirement-Heist-Companies-Plunder-American/dp/1591843332
We got no pensions, but there's always our 401k's!
http://www.lyricsfreak.com/t/talking+heads/once+in+a+lifetime_20135070.h...
Computers can't feel emotion and thus tend towards complacency
Central planners believe they can decide when to HOLD UP the market and .......when to CRASH it.
CONTROL IT UPWARDS - CONTROL IT DOWNWARDS.
Hence, they want to hold it up during GREEK CDS clearances and than allow it to "slowly" decline.
WE WILL SEE.
Let's see, we are on the verge of war with Iran, all hell is breaking loose in Afghanistan, gas prices are through the roof, house prices are still falling, the Euro is falling apart,and the vix is at a 5 year low. Sleep little sheep ,sleep. Don't worry this will end well.
Those are all known pieces of information and are already discounted. It would take something unexpected to make VIX shoot up (i.e. equities to move in either direction to affect vol term structure) such as events that would derail the debt ponzi, e.g. actual "disorderly" (ordinary) defaults, a two-notch US devt rating downgrades out of the blue, sudden talk about austerity referendum in a new place e.g. Spain, etc.
@Dr...
Quiet! You're disturbing my concentration on filling out my NCAA brackets...
when you have this much Central Bank intervention it distorts market signals, and mask risks. Can't tell up from down. EURUSD signal broken. VIX signal broken. Libor rate broken. CAn't even trust Okun's law. wtf.
trust yourself ... there aren't (m)any other options.
CONTROL OF MARKETS = CONTROL OF INTERBANK LENDING = ZERO UNSECURED INTERBANK LENDING
CONTROL OF MARKETS = CONTROL OF WORLD TRADE = PROTECTIONISM = HIGH CRUDE AND FOOD PRICES UNTIL PEOPLE HAVING FOOD RAGE AT WALMART ARE BROADCASTED ALL OVER THE WORLD (VERY VERY SOON)
Ixnay on the APSKay, what say?
Not into trading. I can't understand what you're saying.
I'm a macro guy.
LOL Uh, he's asking you to stop screaming, in Pig Latin.
Ok. Sorry.
A lot of mental cocaine on Zerohedge.
Do Italian swine speak "pig latin"?... Just asking...
lol
Note to self: Buy keyboard cover.
I apologize. I'll try to remember not to use capitals for the whole post.
English is a bastand language anyway.
Well, you you need one or two guys here to cause some fun. Everybody seems to be grumpy.
Hear. Hear on fun. A sense of humor regarding the chaos and stupidity is welcome. Uncapped of course :)
Trying to get a commercial loan the past couple days is like shouting into the wilderness. "Come get some yield!" "Naaaa."
Everybody's wise to the debt default game.
Borrow all you can, then say "piss off" to the creditors.
Citi just loaned me 10k interest free for 18 months so I can get me some more silver.
Well technically they didn't loan you anything, but I catch your drift.
Thou shall not have any volitility or panic...
Doesn't a 16% VIX correlate to 1% daily moves in the market? Given the ~0.5% moves lately it makes senjse that the VIX would head down.
Don't worry, it'll all work out in the end....
Feds have embalmed the stock market. It's numb to the touch, nothing resembling a real working exchange anymore.
But, but the Fed is still yelling "clear" and applying the defib paddles.
See the bottom chart...
There's still juice in the body, lol.
The DOW may make it to 14000 and a bit above, but it has NEVER reached 15000, somehow things always wrong when it reaches 14000. Happened in the Dot-com bubble, and it happened in the credit bubble, and it should happen in the central banking intervention bubble.
So how do we execute this trade of long term volatilitry vs short term? Buy VXX and short Vxy?
Anyone have any other recommendations besides UVXY? I just can't help but load up when I see a picture like this...
1. Get out.
2. Ignoring Rule #1, buy VIXY at your own risk.
I'm not going all in, not even close, this is just a tiny bet compared to most. Thanks though.
Can you guys get a room?
LOL...Just the tip honey, I promise.
Smallies ahev always been a better "sign" fo things to come, try TZA!
Down 7.25% at present vs. TVIX down 2.85%...am I missing something here?
This is not your father's market...
"I love it when a central plan comes together."
-Benjamin "Cannibal" Bernanke of the B-Team
And for sure tomorrow Ben babyface will say moderate recovery in place in the US...
Of course theres no volatility when the FED central banksters have a white knuckle grip on total market control.
SkyNet has placed an imaginary force-field around the leaky dam.
Yes, it's 5 O'clock somewhere....
market broken.....who cares...
Finally, some good news! The VIX is just a quiet canary in the coal mine now.
Dead.
Taps - http://youtu.be/Wn_iz8z2AGw
Golden Slumbers
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2qP4Ye15J0Y
Bought the VIX last week thinking it would be an easy winner. Cost me 10% before I bailed. Should have known America is Shangri-La.
You are betting on reality and sanity, whlile the rest of the table and the house are betting on perception and fantasy and the roulette wheel has magnets on each number that suck the ball to the lowest wager on the table.
well, this is follow-up to tyler's xlnt piece yesterday about the steepness over the time-gradients of the volatility indices
here:
As If There Was No Risk Tomorrow: Complacency Hits Record As VIX Craters Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/12/2012 - 10:07everything is screwed down pretty tight, derivative-wise, still and the options (derivatives) these vol.indices are based upon ain't doin a whole lotta nuttin, recently; the puts haven't done well and as the "market has floated upward", the clock has been running on them, too, so they're dying not from fast, giant pricing increases, but by water torture while daBoyz clear some accounts re greek debt and the patience of theGodsb4HurlingThunderboltz is needed here
it looks like the pineappleExpress has arrived with rain for the whole week, so where is my pink umbrella?
Blame it all on the Fed
Ohhhh gettin' giddy :)) but have to be disciplined and put 1/2 in PHYZZZ and 1/2 in TZA! VIX products are so fucked, contango, NAV's going ape...oh no, TZA, the smallies will do the trick!
Why would anyone ever consider playing at this casino. As long as Corzine runs free theft is legal.
Is this the tide pulling out before the tsunami, or did Grandpa forget to refill the pool?
Thoughts on TVIX?
TVIX is a piece of crap, beware. Last i looked it's trading at a high premium to NAV. UVXY may be better but it just split 6:1 and is getting hammered... These volatility ETF's go down a lot more than up.
Tyler, how do I pull up the VIX term structure/calendar spreads on my Bloomberg terminal? Or.....how are you determining the "steepness" of the curve?
Stock markets around the world have regained momentum this year and are likely to continue a gradual upwards climb the rest of the year, leading investors told CNBC.
"Stock markets around the world have regained momentum this year and are likely to continue a gradual upwards climb the rest of the year, leading investors told CNBC."
Investors claiming market momentum upwards? - what self-promoting crap.
At best they have been flat - even with the Government stimulus.
U.S. retail sales recorded their largest gain in five months in February as Americans snapped up motor vehicles and bought a range of goods, even as they paid more for gasoline, government data showed on Tuesday.
As I said yesterday "It will go much lower". Puts anyone?
This is like closing your eyes on the freeway because you haven't had an accident in ages!
It is illegal for the market to go down. It is also illegal to think that the market might go down. The color red is also illegal.
It is also illegal to not believe government data. In the event you have a child it's middle name must be "Government". If a mail truck delivers mail you must upon seeing the truck get on your knees and praise the government.
The VIX has been renamed, the "FIX"
Wow..Over a million shares of VXX just got bought at around $21.50
it's all about Opex, they have to reach their targets and burn all non-insiders who took seemingly "rational" positions in VIX, ETF, Futures, Stocks, FX
Well, because everyone knows the FED et al will backstop the market. There really is no risk.
So maybe I am wrong about this, but as I understand it, the volatility indexes are not only an indication of how much markets move in the short term, but also how much people expect them to move in the middle term. So it represents some ratio of volatility now compared to expected volatility in the future. If that is true, could it not be the case that a rather low / level VIX simple means that people expect the gyrations of today to be not that big of a deal relative to the risk of much larger gyrations in the future? If so, doesn't that make absolute and eerie sense?
Ok. This can't last. I'm new to betting that the VIX will go up. How is that done (my contrarian nature is taking over)?
Good luck!
I have some oversized positions in PMs, too, but in this environment, this zh'er also likes to trade complacency news that has "five year lows" in the headline. "Twelve year lows," would be better, of course, and I hope everyone reading this will capitalize on that moment if it occurs. I went from a 10% starter to 20% second step position in VIX today. 80% of the capital dedicated to this trade awaits a deeper, longer misguided complacency. The oblique opening and closing references to the earlier article containing the phrase "premature exhuberation" in the headline are willful and salaciously intended.