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Volume Soars As Rally Ends

Tyler Durden's picture


As AAPL dominates the headlines for its dramatic 5% reversal intraday and biggest drop in over two months, perhaps it is worth pointing out that the lacking volumes have returned with a flourish. ES (the e-mini S&P futures contract) saw its heaviest volume since this mid-December rally began (30% above average) as our recent pontification on the messages from the credit market (along with the rhythmic periodicity of the rally's size and length) may be starting to wear on investors' risk appetites. After European credit markets accelerated to the downside today, US investment grade and high-yield credit was not buying any of the overnight rally in stock futures and moved wide of yesterday's pre-Samaras rally out of the gate. Stocks surged upwards, tracking uber-stock AAPL but as chatter of a NASDAQ rebalance sent game-theorists scrambling to migrate, AAPL's slump dragged everything down (sadly) with ES stalling at the pre-China rumor level before falling to pre-Samaras levels from yesterday's lows. A lack of rumors and no QE mention from FOMC minutes along with lackluster news from the Eurogroup did nothing to rescue the situation as EURUSD ended on its lows (-1% on the week now) and USD Strength saw carry trades dragging stocks down. Interestingly, post-FOMC Treasuries came off their best levels in the afternoon (even as stocks were tanking) but we saw Gold rallying (in the face of a stronger USD) - does make one wonder on where the safety trade is now. WTI closed near its highs of the day (over $102) and as we noted earlier Brent in EUR closed at record highs as Copper is -1.3% on the week and Silver is tracking USD -0.75% or so on the week.

The highest volume in ES since the rally began and as we point out on the chart (with the 4 same-size rectangles - click to enlarge for clarity), we seem to be approaching some kind of periodic and point-size performance break.

Readjusting the sync between credit and equity for this week we can see clearly that credit did not buy the overnight rally and indeed ended notably lower. ES stalled (dotted orange oval) at the pre-China rumor levels and then fell and boiunced mildly off the lows from yesterday (pre-Samaras). On a longer-term basis (post NFP) credit remains a nagging doubt for risk appetite.

Financials continue to behave very weakly but there is a clear divide once again between the haves and the have-nots as JPM, GS, and WFC are grouped around the financial ETF performance post Monday's open while MS, BAC, and C are all grouped notably lower (down 5-6% from Monday's open). So much for Bank of America's sell CDS protection on this sell-off as CDS continue to widen significantly (+40-50bps from week ago tights now). MS is back over 300bps, GS over 250bps, and JPM 24bps wider than its tights a week ago at 130bps (the largest relative derisker).

Post FOMC minutes (no QE??), Treasuries sold off, stocks sold off, but Gold and the USD rallied.

In FX, JPY strengthened modestly against selling pressure on most of the majoprs as USD pushed to highs of the week (+0.8% since Friday). CAD and AUD are up an equal 0.18% on the week against the USD but all eyes were on EUR today as it tried to retest 1.31 but was rejected shoretly after the Euro conference call ended.

Treasuries saw 5Y and 7Y outperform, 10Y unch and 30Y underperform on the day but broadly speaking all remain -3 to 6bps on the week.

Oil is the high-flier of the week so far in commodities at +3.38% (and over $102 for WTI). Copper is the biggest loser down 1.3% and Gold decoupled a little from Silver today as Silver dropped and Gold rallied.

Risk-off. Perhaps we will see European equities finally start to crack and catch up to European credit tonight and then the race begins for rumors and innuendo as we see large crowds and small doors in many markets currently - but we do note that ES remains well above the post-NFP print spike levels for now (even if credit is well below them).

Charts: Bloomberg


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Wed, 02/15/2012 - 17:46 | 2163637 ACP
ACP's picture

"You can't arrest gravity, fucko!"

-Dave Attell

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 17:46 | 2163641 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I can't help myself. This is totally unrelated. Livin in America!

The Heart Attack Grill in downtown Las Vegas lived up to its name Saturday night, when a customer dining on a "triple bypass burger" suffered an apparent heart attack.

Amateur video of the man being wheeled out of the restaurant by EMTs was posted to several web sites.

"He was having the sweats and shaking," said ‘Nurse' Bridgett, who was working at the restaurant when the man in his 40s began experiencing chest pains.

"Doctor" Jon Basso, who opened the restaurant in October, told FOX5 at first he thought it was a joke.

"One of the nurses came back to me and said, ‘Dr. Jon, we've got a patient who's in trouble.'"

The restaurant is known for not holding back on the food it serves. Signs around the business glorify bad eating habits and the menu includes items like Flatliner Fries, and Butterfat Milkshakes.

One meal, the "quadruple bypass burger" can easily exceed 8,000 calories.

The gentleman who suffered the heart attack was in the middle of eating a Triple Bypass burger when he began experiencing the symptoms.

Despite the clinical atmosphere, Basso is not actually a medical doctor, so he called 911. Paramedics and EMTs arrived in moments.

"The gentleman could barely talk," said Basso. "He was sweating, suffering. Anyone with an ounce of compassion would've felt for him."

Basso tells FOX5 he has heard the man is alive and recuperating. His name is still unknown.

The staff at the Heart Attack Grill willingly glorifies bad health. If you weigh over 350 pounds, you eat for free. And on Saturday night, Basso saw the other side.

"I actually felt horrible for the gentleman because the tourists were taking photos of him as if it were some type of stunt. Even with our own morbid sense of humor, we would never pull a stunt like that," he said.

Tourists were disheartened, but not entirely surprised to hear about the incident.

"I don't think I would walk into a place, even if it's called the Heart Attack Grill, and order food, and expect that I was going to have a heart attack," said Las Vegas resident Debbie Kaye.

Customers, however, continued eating the burgers, fries, and shakes Tuesday night.

"It says right on the door, it's hazardous to your health," diner CJ Beeman pointed out.

Basso said there have been a ‘variety of incidents' in the past, but this is the first full-scale coronary that happened in his restaurant.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 17:53 | 2163661 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

BELMONT, Mass., Oct. 17 (AScribe News) Marathon running may trigger a cascade of potentially heart-damaging events, as reported by McLean Hospital researchers in back-to-back papers in the Oct. 17 American Journal of Cardiology.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:15 | 2163766 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

If they took the blood samples 24 hours after the marathon as stated in the article, they obviously haven't seen runners eat and drink at a post race party.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 19:24 | 2163998 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

Jim Fixx.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 17:51 | 2163663 barliman
barliman's picture


Red flag for egregious off-topic trolling.

Really? You can't help yourself?

Then please contain your self centered approach to life to Facebook and Huffington Post!


Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:00 | 2163710 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Red flag for taking life too seriously. There has been 25 columns on the VIX. We get it. I was having some fun. Please contain your moral high ground and selfless approach to some other site.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:39 | 2163853 barliman
barliman's picture


Yea ...

.. not happening, troll.

Want to espouse something near and dear to your heart - go to the forums.


Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:46 | 2163882 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture


How about you give your thoughts on the topic at hand then? Your troll police work is done here. You made your point. I get it. No either say something relevant to the topic if you are so serious about this, or go back to sitting on your porch and telling the kids to get off your lawn.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:51 | 2163895 barliman
barliman's picture


Lots of thoughts ...

... nothing that I think adds any value at this point. It was an interesting day and I thought TD highlighted the important things.

Need to sit back, read , research and let the back of my brain mull it over.

Didn't see inything in the column about the VIX though.


Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:54 | 2163910 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Ironically, neither did I, which led to my change of topic. Which I now regret. Shit happens I guess.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 19:05 | 2163940 barliman
barliman's picture




Wed, 02/15/2012 - 20:02 | 2163896 porrannor
porrannor's picture


Wed, 02/15/2012 - 17:55 | 2163683 TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

I'm certain you could market something that says "THIS WILL KILL YOU" on the box, and people will buy it. The trick is not being specific as to when.


Someone send the market a quadruple-bypass burger, this fat pig needs to roll over, stat.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 20:13 | 2164129 Catfish
Catfish's picture

I'm certain you could market something that says "THIS WILL KILL YOU" on the box, and people will buy it. The trick is not being specific as to when.

Kinda like cigarettes?

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 17:55 | 2163685 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Clever...suicide by gluttony....wonder if his life insurance policy will pay out.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:57 | 2163917 withnmeans
withnmeans's picture

Monty Python's Meaning of Life, Great Movie... Got to love Monty Python...

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 17:58 | 2163656 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

and we all know what happens after a low, low, low volume rally

a LARGE volume sell-off


Last suckers holding the bag call Blowjob Ben toll free on: ONE-TRILLION-BUBBLES

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 17:50 | 2163660 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Let me get this straight. Market down, gold up, treasuries sell off. Hmmmm

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 17:54 | 2163680 Conman
Conman's picture

Safe haven Utility stocks were down too.. you're on to something there.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 17:51 | 2163665 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Low volume melt-up probably got some retirees and pension funds to buy into AAPL at the high, the financials, and other "hot" stocks.

Time for some robo profit taking.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:28 | 2163747 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

let me assure you the Robos (like Robbo) do not know their arse from their elbow, a market rally from a market collapse

they are frontrunning computers, micro-second insider traders (buy/sell order number crunchers)

digitised toilet flush mechanisms (anythings better than the losers on Goldmans and JP Morgans trading desks) with no conscious state of mind ..alot like socialists, they hum a mantra they're ordered to hum and never question the tune because they're pre-programmed IQ (ie. zero IQ) ..think Paul 'humming Karl Marx' Krugman

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:32 | 2163824 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

those micro second insider traders cover their proptrading desk losses. and yeah prop desks frontrun too, all across the board. 

You show me a trade broker and I'll show you a person looking to profit from the reverse side of the trade.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:41 | 2163863 barliman
barliman's picture



You need to stop holding these things in.

Green flag for you.


Wed, 02/15/2012 - 20:10 | 2164097 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Hey Barliman, it's the end of the world (soon) right?

...not much time, nothing to lose, who gives a fuck! no point bally dancing around the burning bush, may as well piss directly on it

I don't know how the Romans felt toward their end of Empire days though from what i hear most left the crumbling banker-vandalised city long before

personaly i'm pretty chilled (believe it or not!) but just taking aim on the usual parasites heads for historical accuracy 

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 19:42 | 2164047 devo
devo's picture

Ding ding, we have a winner.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 17:55 | 2163681 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

A sudden spike in volume is usually indicative of a reversal, which is long overdue.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 17:56 | 2163691 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Apple Computer has had an impressive string of new product launches.  If they miss the boat on any major product launches in the future, the collapse of their stock price could be brutal.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:03 | 2163722 Conman
Conman's picture

Well Cook did make some comments squashing apple tv rumors. So could be partly to blame.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:36 | 2163843 adr
adr's picture

Apple is based on the need to be part of a clique, not on any actual productive need. Most people have found that their PC from 5 years ago still works fine and performs every task they need it to, as fast as they would ever need. Buying a new computer will not increase productivity at all because the processing power will all be wasted. Nothing on the internet, including Facebook, needs a quad core 9GB ram monster machine. Microsoft is purposely slowing the new operating systems just so it becomes impossible to run on older systems. 2GB of ram used to be more than enough fro any work on Win XP, including any Adobe program. Now the programs will barely run on a Win 7 machine unless you have 6GB of ram available.

Back to the point. Nobody actually needs an iPad 3 over an iPad 2. The extra horsepower and better specs will do nothing for casual web use, eBooks, or videos. Other than the ridiculous voice control, the iPhone4s is really no better than the plain 4. Many people still get by with an iPhone3 just fine. It isn't about need, but status. That is why Apple makes massive design changes when they need to move new product. It is so everyone will know you have the old product. Having last year's model makes you an outcast, guilty of a fashion faux pas. When the next Apple product comes out no Apple fan wants to be seen holding the out of date design, even if the actual product performs everything you need it to. Android phones do not have that issue because most people could never tell if you have the newest model or one from three years ago. But that also means Andriod phones will never have the gotta have it fashion cachet of Apple.

An Apple TV really doesn't mean anything because it loses all the social aspect of shoving your Apple product in the face of everyone else. It will also cost far more than competing products without the ability for retailers to subsidize the cost. If Apple products were so much better than competing PCs, then why aren't Mac computers reaching hundred million unit sale numbers? You can shove a Macbook in someone's face at the airport, can't really do it with an iMac.

For much of its fanbase, Apple is all about saying you are better than someone else because you have an iProduct. Since owning Apple is about being better than others, you must buy the new product to be better than other iFanatics. You must be first in line, so you can post on Facebook that you got your iPenis before the next guy. The most fanatical Apple people I have met are also the shallowest people I have ever met. I'm sure that isn't a coincidence.


Wed, 02/15/2012 - 19:17 | 2163979 IndicaTive
IndicaTive's picture

Well put.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 19:51 | 2164068 devo
devo's picture

This implies Apple makes powerful machines. My laptop from 2007 has better specs (granted, after a RAM upgrade) than a 2012 MacBook Pro. That is sad.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 22:37 | 2164555 Tijuana Donkey Show
Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

Yea, what type of laptop, and how much did you spend Devo?  Apple builds a solid computer and phone platform, and unlike everyone else, you CAN GET THEM FIXED. I still use my older Iphone because apple will repair it, and supports updates. Apple does lever the asshat/gotta have it crowd to sell some product, but their stuff works well together. Show me any other product that doen't require a squad of nerds (I am a support nerd), and I'll bow down. And do not say M$FT, their stuff is garbage at best.  As for the 2007 spec, go read about how the speed isn't the same year to year as a true measurement. 

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 05:16 | 2165169 spinone
spinone's picture

Agreed, apple stuff works.  Uses a flavor of unix for the OS of the mac. Micro$oft is a horrible horrible horrible OS.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 17:58 | 2163701 Genzero
Genzero's picture

Only 250 more Nasdaq points of bullshit to erase.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 17:59 | 2163706 pleseus
pleseus's picture

Equity Markets seem to be rolling over.  We could see a 20% correction from here ushering in an announcement for QE3 in a couple months. 

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:05 | 2163731 ekm
ekm's picture

I'm looking at S&P, at least 950.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:45 | 2163878 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture


You are a lot more bullish than I am.

I am expecting S&P @ sub 650 by May, 2012.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:59 | 2163923 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Give me some data that tells you the S&P will be sub 650 in a couple months.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 19:34 | 2164024 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

Simple enough:


BDI (Baltic Dry Index) on Dec 5, 2008 @ 660 ==========> S&P 500 on March 6, 2009 @ 666


BDI on Feb 3, 2012 @ 647 ==========> ?? (I am thinking around May 3, 2012 following the above)


I am quite possibly wrong, but the past does seem to rhyme a lot.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 05:18 | 2165172 spinone
spinone's picture

Yes, but the glut of cargo ships is a confounding factor

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 21:52 | 2164413 DarkStarDog
DarkStarDog's picture

S&P 444 then the jack ass Bernack gets canned. RomaBoma steps in doodoo, via revolution, banksters disapear and then a real recovery can finally commence.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:11 | 2163753 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

..or if we get a 30% correction, we'll have QE3 in a couple of weeks, a 40% correction, QE in a couple of days.....lets put a ruler on it.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 20:10 | 2164124 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

30% correction. QE3 then Rally.        Extrapolate that backwards and you get to the point if 30% correction tomorrow, QE3 within hours, rally immediately following, so no chance of immediate selloff. 


QE2 has convinced markets of credible response of QE3 and so no need to have QE3. 


Im not saying market wont selloff, it could do for other reasons, Im saying Qe3 is far less likely than most people believe.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 21:06 | 2164277 Raisuli
Raisuli's picture


I wonder how the TPTB cold have hidden this from us. I did not see that coming. I read ZH and keep looking for the inevitable crash.

Seems like can kicking is nothing I understand well enough.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:00 | 2163712 ekm
ekm's picture

Right now BAC has 28.59 million shares traded after hours. I've followed it every day since I'm short. I can't remember one day it had so many shares traded within 1 hr of close of market.

Any idea?

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:00 | 2163713 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Did we just see oil / gas go up and stocks go down? Kinda like spring 2008?

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:02 | 2163720 ekm
ekm's picture


Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:08 | 2163742 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Oil I don't believe is going to crack 2008 style. Iran is trying to break the petrodollar. This is going to be interesting.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:12 | 2163754 surf0766
surf0766's picture

We have already seen last year when it hit $112 per the damage it can cause with $4.00 gal gas and the additional slowdown. How much slower than stopped can we get? I was just wondering if anyone thought the same.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:17 | 2163774 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

You are probably right. The MSM can only ignore the rise or praise it as a byproduct of an economy gaining strength for so long. Eventually it breaks the consumers back. It probably already has.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:26 | 2163801 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

The US consumption economy can't handle $100+/bbl oil for any substantial length of time. We know that already. IMHO, Brent above $120/bbl for even a modest length of time in this economy's current state signals an immanent bust. So what's next? Stock market decline? Another round fo mass loan defaults? False Flag? All of the above?

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 21:42 | 2164370 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Oil and gasoline will get croaked before the election.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:23 | 2163796 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Those analogs have long since been disproven.

This time it's different.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:06 | 2163735 sodbuster
sodbuster's picture

Safety trade? It's called a Serta- or whatever your preference is.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:09 | 2163744 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

The year 2012 is starting out much like every other year in the never ending saga of cartel manipulation.

The first 32 trading days has seen gold rise from $1,603 on January 3rd, to a high of $1,759 on February 2nd. It is currently trading around $1,735, or a gain of $132 for the year. At first glance this is fairly impressive, yet digging a little deeper reveals the fraud.

 During those 32 trading days gold only exceeded a 1% daily gain three times, and never exceeded 2%. It did close ever-slightly above 2% on January 25th but it was obviously being capped at 2%.

You have to marvel at a bull market that gains nearly 10% in a month and a half yet has the volatility of a sleeping hound dog. Today is yet another day of price management at +1%. You could literally watch on your screen the algo offers stacked at and above 1%.

Jim Sinclair's comment that CB's aren't trying to suppress gold as much as they are trying to control gold's volatility. For sure they are controlling volatility; suppressing the price through derivatives however is precisely how they do it.

Gold is increasingly looking attractive at this $1,700 level. Many BB mouthpieces and MSM shills now concede gold could easily get to $2,000- $2,500 yet this year. Returns of 20%- 50% look not only possible, but probable. Hedge funds have to be asking themselves what other investment alternatives exist to net out such hefty gains. Notice you don't hear much CNBS chatter lately about allocating funds in emerging markets. Most "emerging markets" are emerging from their financial dungeons, and heading straight into the abyss.

It also seems a bit farcical to think either U.S. Treasuries or AAPL could tack on another 50%. Yes, the answer to investor woes seems obvious: Gold and silver. The next cartel retreat higher should be worth the aggravation of watching this gold capping farce.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 20:54 | 2164244 amadeusb4
amadeusb4's picture

Doesn't it bother you that the MSM has jumped on your gold bandwagon? PM's aren't exactly a good deflation hedge and if this earnings season and battery of PMI's and other economic metrics sans BLS's seasonal adjustment magic have indicated anything, it is that we're heading for a severe recession. How did PM's do in the second half of 2008?

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 05:21 | 2165173 spinone
spinone's picture

Deflation will destroy capital no matter where it is.  Even PM's.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:09 | 2163745 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

AND that 25% drop in Blue Nile in ah......

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 19:28 | 2164006 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

NILE. Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha...

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:15 | 2163763 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

on a down day, CNBC's mother ship shot up 4 and half %





Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:18 | 2163781 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

I miss Melissa Francis

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:23 | 2163797 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

You can see her horse-face on fox business if you really need to...

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 20:25 | 2164157 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Hey, you didnt have to bring Sarah into the conversation like that.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 20:31 | 2164176 jm
jm's picture

Poor Sarah... gives "Pig men" a run for the money...

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 21:32 | 2164344 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Yeah, shot up 4% and offloaded 35 million shares at "the high".... Anybody seen my bag?

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:15 | 2163768 adr
adr's picture

So if we get a reversal now, why now???

What has actually changed? It's not like stocks were just now getting way ahead of themselves, they have for the past three years. The rally was based on pure BS. The reversal may be based on pure BS. Everyone paying attention knows Greece is going to default. Apple going from $400 to $500 on rumors of iPad this and stock split that was complete BS.

The only answer that makes sense is that each rally isn't based on an ounce of fundamentals, but merely programmed runs to generate enough cash for an entity to weather certain events. If Bank of America needs a billion dollars for something, a stock market BS run is created so people within the corporation can have an entry point to capitalize on the ensuing rise. Once the capital need is met the insiders sell off to some fool who is left holding the bag. I'm sure that isn't news to anyone here.

If we do get a reversal now, it can only be to bring stocks down 10% or so in order to set up the next leg up. Only total outright manipulation of the market, and the news feed, can explain the market moves over the past three years. There is no way any fundamental like demand, or retail sales, can explain a stock moving 10,000% in a year, let alone doing that in a few days like some coffee stocks in March 2009. There are too many stocks that reached that level of insanity and then never sold off once the sales never materialized.

To be sure earnings expectations will be revised lower over the next few weeks and then again, and again. Allowing for massive beats that would have been a massive miss had expectations not been lowered. All the cash on balance sheets is probably not even there, just figments of an accountant's imagination. If real holes are opened there is nothing left that can save the market. All it would take is a few real audits of Fortune 500 companies to send the whole thing down in flames.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 19:28 | 2164007 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

Why now? Because short interest is so low.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 21:29 | 2164331 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Why now?  Why not now, anybody and everybody knows this whole "recovery" is a farce. The books are cooked and the numbers don't work, but hey.... we can print money and by the futures at 4am.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:18 | 2163780 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Tom O'Brien foaming at the mouth, shouting "Volume off the Top!" and "Failure!", yada, yada, yada.

Yep, we'll see a run back down to the 50-day, and in the meantime money will pile right back into Treasuries, pushing rates to new record lows, only to re-ignite "Animal Spirits" for those playing on IB Margin accounts who are only charged 1.4%.

Yet another new high for the move in the S & P 500 for Euroland:

Shocking how the QQQ is trading over $60 at 10-year highs with the 10-yr. yield smashed down to 1.93%.

As good as it gets......

As far as AAPL goes, money will simply rotate out of that stock, where "vast profits" can be redeployed into new names, such as Devon Energy, giant volume breakout today:

Or maybe into some screamers like Fossil:

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:32 | 2163825 Milton William ...
Milton William Cooper's picture

or maybe Blue Nile

or maybe Solyndra

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:52 | 2163903 adr
adr's picture

Look, I like Fossil as a company because they have good designs, but beating earnings based on shipping "sold" items to stores isn't indicative of real growth. The problem with Fossil is they are no longer a value brand. Fossil used to be a mid range company that you could get a decent good looking watch for $50. Now you can barely walk out without paying $125. I guess that is great for Wall Street, where real actual profits take a back seat to accounting games.

All of their current products are massively overpriced and they don't have the brand image to go toe to toe with the luxury brands they are now competing against. Fossil is pricing themselves out of the market, but that doesn't matter to analysts allowing directors to get fat off stock grants. The end of the year was also not very good for Fossil compared to the rest of the year. Inventory is running very high and sales are slowing. Fossil has been throwing way too many designs at the wall that haven't been sticking. I wouldn't want to see the back inventory of dead product they must hold. BUT HEY THAT'S WHAT MASSIVE CHINESE MADE PRODUCT MARGINS ARE FOR!!!

When a retail stock jumps 20% in one day, it is getting way ahead of itself. You aren't going to see true sales growth to match the stock optimism.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 20:13 | 2164126 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

mis characterizing Obrien. To be fair what he is saying that this day is one data point. Tomorrow will be important for Apple and the nasdaq. Apple represents 17% of the NASD100.

What is hard for me to understand is your agenda. You are chearleading and not a realist. Pile into Treasuries when the US Treasury is borrowing at such a rate that is totally unsustainable? Even Kudlow thinks this is insane.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 21:13 | 2164295 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Robot has all the answers... Inhale to the chief.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:26 | 2163804 Elwood P Suggins
Elwood P Suggins's picture




We had no rumor today


To keep the bears all at bay


The market did drop


As stocks took a flop


And the bulls got out of the way


Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:40 | 2163858 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

We already have a limerick guy. Maybe you could try haiku?

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:46 | 2163879 Elwood P Suggins
Elwood P Suggins's picture

Go fuck yourself.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 19:02 | 2163929 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

tough crowd today.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 21:06 | 2164278 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Must be a full moon...

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:32 | 2163829 chump666
chump666's picture

 large short pos target on the EUR at 1.28.

can the nutty Europeans finally kick Greece out?  Who knows?  But PIIGS yields will blowout again as will CDS spreads. If Greece three mths from now is in the same situation.  They will finally get the boot or boot themselves.  The FED will print like mad into the ECB and the ECB will go large buy-up on European banks/bonds/CDS etc etc etc.


Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:35 | 2163838 NakedSwanTrading
NakedSwanTrading's picture

Our Volatility Atlas reiterates extreme markest risk for $DIA & $SPY near these levels -- at this point downside risk far exceeds upside gain. Be very careful here.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 19:46 | 2164057 jm
jm's picture

I think it's called "overbought".

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 20:57 | 2164257 NakedSwanTrading
Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:40 | 2163855 monopoly
monopoly's picture

"large crowds, small doors". Perfect, love it.


Wed, 02/15/2012 - 18:45 | 2163872 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

No QE Fed The Beast? ...must be some new world order Iranian fast diet version of stronger toilet paper. 

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 20:51 | 2164160 hyper-critical
hyper-critical's picture

Today looked like an economic weakness trade. As the coincident and lagging economic data begin to come in far lower than expectations, people realize a European 'tail risk' scenario is actually still very much still in the cards, the Iranian situation intensifies, and China's imminent easing and bailout of Europe end up not being so imminent, there will be a wholesale "aha" moment where people decide that risk markets are grossly overpriced. Whether this adoption process is gradual or hastened in by an acute crisis is irrelevant - as it has been for a couple weeks now, this market is in the midst of a classic topping process.

And when it cracks, it will be violent. For all those shorts out there who have been bitching in the comments sections on zhedge, I have two things to say to you: 1) never, ever short right off a high, and 2) your time is coming.

Giddyup momos.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 21:01 | 2164268 amadeusb4
amadeusb4's picture

Now? Now the market is in a topping process? It has been "topping" for three weeks now. A very long topping process indicates a significant top. This could very well be 2012's high.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 21:03 | 2164273 hyper-critical
hyper-critical's picture

"as it has been for a couple weeks now, this market is in the midst of a classic topping process."

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 20:55 | 2164252 chump666
chump666's picture

Wow AUD just took out...everybody.  Not me.  I have been burnt on that trade so many times.  Looks like China data fudge virus is spreading to Australia.  Oh dear, goverments are losers and terrible bullsh*ters. 

Markets are planning payback. 

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 02:28 | 2165060 Excursionist
Excursionist's picture

I other news, my personal FX account is now in the green with the latest anti-Stolper trade (i.e., shorted EUR/USD about 15 days ago at 1.3107).  Not by much, but the trade is in the green and getting greener.

Absolutely incredible track record over at GS.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 21:23 | 2164323 WillieNelsonListener
WillieNelsonListener's picture

Question for Investors on the Board  ---

WAIIX - Inflation Protection portfolio

The investment seeks maximum total return, consistent with preservation of capital. The fund invests at least 80% of net assets in inflation-indexed fixed income securities and at least 70% of net assets in U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected Securities. The range within which the dollar-weighted average effective duration of the fund is expected to fluctuate is 6–12 years, although this may vary. It is expected to maintain a dollar-weighted average credit quality of at least A/A. Does this play in the PRINT PRINT PRINT - HUGE Deficit, etc... Environment - if so / not - why - thanks for your opinions
Wed, 02/15/2012 - 22:05 | 2164464 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

not calling it bullish just saying "nothing terrifies a bull more than a low to no volume sell off." and obviously "this is not the case today." I would add "Apple only went down to where it was yesterday" as well. Remember 1998? When "finally the market started selling off" only to see it rocket higher by another 40%? Those "looking for entry points" can wait a long time, too. Generally speaking "those are the ones who buy right at the high" i might add. and here's what happens when you do that:

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 22:09 | 2164470 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Is this really news? Ever since this rally began it's the same memo: Inverse dollar and low volume=market rises and high volume=market selloff. Nothing has changed. Only thing is if this is options x games or the start of a downtrend. 50/50 shot not enough to bet on.  Those right will exclaim victory when only it's a lucky call.

Wed, 02/15/2012 - 23:20 | 2164662 Albertarocks
Albertarocks's picture

Whether or not the actual top is in for AAPL, the effect that today's reversal had on the AAPL:$NDX ratio is more than apparent.  It's most likely much worse news than most imagine... even if AAPL were to bounce tomorrow.  More damage is being done than what appears on the surface.  This study makes a case that today's action suggests we can now consider that the highs are behind us.  It isn't quite conclusive, but damn... it sure looks that way:


Wed, 02/15/2012 - 23:36 | 2164711 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 As Fletch says. It's all ball bearings these days! Crack out those sticks, and party like its 1999-2012. 


Thu, 02/16/2012 - 01:01 | 2164939 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 And so? We enter the Libor? Any q/A? Hint HinT?

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