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Waiting For The Vampires

Tyler Durden's picture





 

From Mark Grant, author of Out of the Box

Just Wait

It was in January 2010 that I first predicted that Greece would fall and the yield on their ten year at the time was 4.38%. I can assure you that the day after I wrote my piece that the yield did not spike up to 20%+. This is not the way the world operates. That is not the way I think. I try to look further out on the horizon past some trade or speculative move by a hedge fund and I concentrate on the grand design and where we are going. Jessie Livermore called it “the trend” and postulated that if you got this right that you would keep winning the game. I am a believer in this concept.

For more than twenty occurrences in the last few years we have had a repeating pattern. Various markets rally on the hopes and prayers that the IMF or the EU or the ECB will unveil some grand plan and fix Europe with a magical silver bullet and not one of these forays into fantasy has been correct; not one. The LTRO was probably the most successful scheme but yet, even here, prices faded back in time as the capital was utilized and spent. Never mind that this money will have to be paid back in a couple of years now and never mind that the condition of the European banks has worsened in spite of the LTRO because the ECB can always do another one but what is not focused on is that the debts build, the recession in Europe worsens and so I predict that Germany will soon join the European Recession Club and that America by the fourth quarter or the first quarter of next year will also be mired in recession. No region on Earth is unaffected by the others and Europe is an unfixed mess that is worsening not correcting and China/Asia is slowing significantly and it is just a matter of being realistic about expectations.

The newest ECB plan does do several things that must be assessed. First it proves without question that all of the talk and focus on Firewalls was an exercise in futility as the base case was to isolate Spain and Italy which were deemed too big to fail and too big to support based upon the credit of Germany and France and now Spain has fallen off the cliff and Italy has one leg in the financial abyss. Sweet, short and succinct; the Firewall concept touted so heavily by the IMF, the EU and the ECB was a bust, a failure. Second the newest ECB concept involves the Stabilization Funds which are woefully inadequate to prop up/rescue Spain and Italy. Then the question of payment is raised and I assert that Germany and France do not have the capacity, at a combined economy of just $6.4 trillion to carry the troubled nations of Europe without serious downgrades by the ratings agencies and a flight from their debt. I said quite some time ago that the first instance reaction would be a massive amount of European money invested in the bonds of Germany, France, the Netherlands et al but as this crisis worsens and there is more impairment of the core countries then capital will leave them as well as they lose their safe haven status.

There is no free lunch. There is no free money and why people continue to think that there is goes back to snake oil sellers in the American Wild West and European gypsies waving garlic around and selling it to keep the vampires at bay; never mind that there were no vampires, they had the cure just in case any showed up. It is the human condition to believe in this kind of nonsense I suppose and it always works for a while, sometimes longer than others, but then someone asks where are the vampires afterall and when no good answer is given the markets wake-up and turn the other way. The next part of the ECB proposal, to try to get Germany onboard I suspect, is to have all of the financing done in the very short term. This, of course, means a mountain of debt at the short end of the curve and it will provide a distortion in the credit markets, in the yield curve and make each new re-financing more and more difficult as capital evaporates in Europe and as many American and Asian institutions sit out on the sidelines and watch the play from the bleachers. Cries of “doing everything to save the Euro” are lovely platitudes for the citizens and grand calls for the next round of the Crusades but then what do you expect any head of the ECB to say and especially one from Italy whose country is mired in its own recession? It is just snake oil selling jargon and I advise you to look at the actual plan and pay little or no attention to the rhetoric or the pretty packaging. Snake oil is snake oil no matter the bottle in which it is presented.

“Consult us about your trouble, no matter what it is. Hearing people is our business. We study we work we think could find the way to accomplish a cure. We devoted years to this task before our methods were perfected to produce results that satisfied us. Now we are satisfied because our labor and study have succeeded. We are satisfied because we can cure your disease quicker, we can do it better and because we can satisfy you better than anyone. Our aim is not what fee we can get but how many can we cure. We cure them all. Hundreds of people here in Salt Lake City can testify to this fact. Scores of patients whose cases were considered hopeless by themselves and by other doctors have found through our hands a quick permanent complete cure in robust health. This is not an advertising lie. It is a fact.”

                -Salt Lake, Utah newspaper ad in December 1902

You may recall that one of the “tricks of the trade” was the use of people in the audience. They stood up and claimed that they had taken the magic potion and were cured of rheumatism, arthritis, cancer and that ninety year old Uncle Elijah and been able to throw away his cane after imbibing the stuff. This may remind you of what is going on in Europe presently as politicians from each and every nation claim that the newest European snake oil will cure the ailments of Europe for all time, for forever and for always. Yes, well, the printing of money has a cost besides the paper and brandishing yourself as the next new Savior of Europe is the trick of Kings and countless empires on the Continent and yet here we are after being saved so many times in the past. So I will tell you this; you produce the Vampire and then I will buy the garlic and we’ll leave it at that!

“Listen to them - children of the night. What music they make.”

               -Bram Stoker, Dracula

 


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Wed, 08/08/2012 - 08:11 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

The cure for the ailments of US citizenism is well known: it is always more US citizenism.

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 08:16 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Wish we could get rid of your inane comments as easily as vampires.

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 08:19 | Link to Comment magpie
magpie's picture

The Chinese burn fiat money to ward off maleficient spirits. And paper gold.

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 08:29 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

Fake money is burned at funerals so that the dead can have cash to spend in the afterlife, not to ward off bad spirits.

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 08:31 | Link to Comment magpie
magpie's picture

Well, if you don't burn it they come back to haunt you, don't they. Is it Hungry Ghost Month already ?

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 08:34 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

When they come back, it's to say their goodbyes at certain dates post-mortem. There's actually a very well defined process for all this, believe it or not. Not so much haunting like we have in the west.

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 08:46 | Link to Comment magpie
magpie's picture

There's this event called Halloween and All Saints Day, not really ancestor worship today but it used to be.

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 08:34 | Link to Comment BigJim
BigJim's picture

 The cure for the ailments of US citizenism is well known: it is always more US citizenism.

Shouldn't you be off skinning a neighbour's puppy to make into soup, HanBot?

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 08:40 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

The evidence I am not.

As it is plain that 'Americans' are off fomenting for wars and ethnical cleansings.

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 09:03 | Link to Comment Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

You seem to enjoy degrading Americans, but since that is such a popular sport it says nothing about YOUR nation of citizenship. Tell us what flag you salute, or are you just another garden variety troll. Peeps here seem to think you are Chinese. I doubt that. I mean, the Chinese are so screwed I would think they are all too busy stealing lolipops from toddlers to bother with non-revenue generating comments. So let us all know your nationality so we can be suitably impressed. Well?

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 10:08 | Link to Comment TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

He emigrated from the old country to France.

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 09:14 | Link to Comment BigJim
BigJim's picture

 As it is plain that 'Americans' are off fomenting for wars and ethnical cleansings.

Hey, don't look at us, we learnt it from the Han peoples! Ask any Tibetan, or Formosan aborigines, about 'ethnical cleansings'.

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 09:47 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Does this ritual require real fake money or will fiat fake money work as well?

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 10:10 | Link to Comment Urban Roman
Urban Roman's picture

You can also delete the keys to your bitcoin wallet.

Just so you have a backup somewhere --

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 08:39 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Wish we could get rid of your inane comments as easily as vampires.
_________________________________

Makes me laugh. Shows how unnatural for US citizens it is to keep fantasy and reality separated.

Who could have believed this from the masters of segregation?

US citizens can not keep reality segregated from fantasy.

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 08:43 | Link to Comment NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Hmm, reality you are moonbat. Fantasy, you are a Chinese moonbat. 

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 08:47 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Propaganda: "you are a moonbat"
Fantasy: "you are a chinese moonbat"

See, US citizens can not live without propaganda or fantasy to mediate between reality and themselves.

Do not fight your US citizen eternal nature, you only end with exhibiting it even more.

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 08:25 | Link to Comment michigan independant
michigan independant's picture

Sha gua

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 08:38 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Blah blah blah .... U. S. citizenIsm.... Blah blah blah blah

There I wrote your next post for you... Now go away. I'll just write a post for you on every article since you always say the same thing. That way you can rest and take it easy.

Sincerely
A U. S. citizen.

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 08:44 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

It is unfounded.

US citizenism is as US citizen does.

All it takes is US citizens keep acting.

What could keep me out of action is that US citizens stop acting.

Yes, the 'american' world is a world of quasi certainty, yes, reporting about 'american' actions comes to repeating the same things over and over again as their US citizen nature is eternal.

If indeed, US citizens could innovate, but they cant. They keep using the same tricks over and over again.

Does not seem to bore them though since they stick to the same manners.

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 09:16 | Link to Comment BigJim
BigJim's picture

...blah blah US Citizenism blah blah....
...blah blah US Citizenism blah blah....
...blah blah US Citizenism blah blah....
...blah blah US Citizenism blah blah....
...blah blah US Citizenism blah blah....
...blah blah US Citizenism blah blah....
...blah blah US Citizenism blah blah....
...blah blah US Citizenism blah blah....
...blah blah US Citizenism blah blah....

The nature of Han Citizenism is eternal (and wildy repetitive).

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 10:27 | Link to Comment TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Dr. Engali said:

Blah blah blah .... U. S. citizenIsm.... Blah blah blah blah

There I wrote your next post for you... Now go away. I'll just write a post for you on every article since you always say the same thing. That way you can rest and take it easy.

You're very close to the recipe for AnAnonymous posts. You've found the insane, feverish boilerplate ranting on US citizenism. This is, in a malodorous way, the most overpowering ingredient. However, there are some key ingredients that you left out.

A technical analysis of AnAnonymous posts reveals that they are composed of approximately half boilerplate ranting, half glossolalia, and half hatred, which are combined in a proprietary hypocritical cowardice process, and, as a final touch, garnished with the anxiety of microphallic inadequacy.

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 13:34 | Link to Comment shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Microphallic inadequacy?

No Long Dong missle?

Eternal unhappiness.

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 08:18 | Link to Comment Unholy Dalliance
Unholy Dalliance's picture

Why do I always feel, when I read Mark Grant that he makes a living by stating the obvious! I wish I could earn that easily!

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 08:37 | Link to Comment SubjectivObject
SubjectivObject's picture

Compared with the mass of MSM lies and misdirection, how much obvious is too much?

Maybe you could creatively elaborate on some point of his or the context, use the opportunity to make an effort of attrition against the status quo, as it were.

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 09:30 | Link to Comment oogs66
oogs66's picture

actually the MSM seems more bearish than ever and he is on a lot...doom has gone mainstream

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 08:44 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

This is a US world order.

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 09:20 | Link to Comment bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

You are right, there is nothing substantive here in Mark Grant's essay ... Aside from his boasts he was right about the past, that these 'piecemeal' euro-zone mini-fixes would not work, as many others thought as well ...

Grant has a vague complaint about the possible negative consequences of printing money ... not addressing the fact that amid a whirlwind of credit contraction in an advanced economy, printing some amount of money has fewer or different consequences than printing in Zimbabwe ...Maybe it could get hyper-inflate eventually but the medium term is different as a credit binge reverses

Money-printing can be critiqued but the critique needs more sophistication, digesting the experiences of Japan and Koo's balance sheet recession views, the US since 2008, countries that in the 30s that departed the gold standard being much better off than countries that stuck with it ...

Mark Grant is at a point where he does not have much to say ... and I think he is somewhat afraid that an upcoming ECB bond-buying blitz on really large scale may somewhat 'fix' things in the medium term ...

EU situation has certainly been quite farcical but this needs more thoughtful analysis, not Mark Grant's continuing series of vague allegories about the Wizard of Oz and Dracula, trying to look profound and 'literary' without saying anything

Better reading is found in diverse people like Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the UK Telegraph, or pro-gold Jim Willie of 'Golden Jackass' who have thought-provoking economic arguments even if some of those arguments might be wrong

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 09:26 | Link to Comment oogs66
oogs66's picture

yes, the articles by him seem to be the same and more effort is spent on finding a "quote" theme, than an actual theme, though this one starts off more defensively than usual.  since CNBC started putting him on regularly, market has been one way move higher.  when doom becomes the norm...

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 14:02 | Link to Comment Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

I actually knew a guy who drove for Jim and Tammy Faye Bakker in their early days.  Most of you are probably too young to remember them.  They were selling snake oil religion.  Part of his job was to sit in the audience at their revival show and at the proper point, when everyone was worked up into just the right degree of religious lather, he would go up to the alter and Jim would lay hands on him and cure him of some dreadful and debilitating condition. Selling religious snake oil is a good business plan if you are smooth enough to carry it off and have the right credentials.  Jim and Tammy Faye made so much money at their fraud that the dog wore diamonds and lived in an air-conditioned dog house.  I think the government mostly leaves organizations such as theirs alone because of the religion thing, so I think they could have carried on until they were too old to dodder onto the stage, if Jim could only have kept his pants on.  Why are people always killing the goose that lays the golden eggs?  Once the sex scandal broke, the feds fell on them like wolves and ate them alive.   

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 08:22 | Link to Comment Colonial Intent
Colonial Intent's picture

Exodus 21:7

And if a man sells his daughter to be a female slave, she shall not go out as the male slaves do.


If you want a USA passport just ask, my eldest daughter turns 12 today.

Whats the going rate for a 12 yr old girl thats just hit puberty, the bible doesnt give an actual price.

Only gold bullion will be accepted as payment

(due to current economic climate)

 

 

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 08:38 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

American girl? -$500,000.

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 09:30 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Seems expensive for a girl that can't cook, clean, sew, or groom a camel.

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 08:39 | Link to Comment TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

After I had read the title and the first sentence I thought I was in for a poetic screed about how inflation was a vampire and gold was the garlic.

Then I clicked on the expanded version and saw the author was Mark Grant and realized I was in for something a little bit less allegorical.

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 08:45 | Link to Comment NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

So which kind of Vampires are we talking here? Are they ones that are or are not allergic to silver?

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 09:00 | Link to Comment gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

Damn, and I had what I thought was enough ammo for the zombies I anticipate dealing with.  Now Vampires too? 

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 10:25 | Link to Comment Marty Rothbard
Marty Rothbard's picture

The difference between garlic, and fiat currency, is that the garlic has inherent value, since it is both nutritious, and can be used to plant next year's crop.  I happen to know, since I grow my own.

There is an equivalent, for everything in the classic vampire story, to be found in central banking.  I suppose gold is to central bankers, as garlic is to vampires.  Public understanding is to central bankers, as sunlight is to vampires.  Dr Ron Paul is to ChairSatan Bernanke, as Dr Van Helsing is to Count Dracula.  Austrian economics is to central bankers, as a wooden stake is to vampires.  Financial markets are to central bankers, as thralls are to vampires.  The middle class is to central bankers, as young virgin women are to vampires.   President Obama is to ChairSatan Bernanke, as Renfield is to Count Dracula.  The to big to fails, are to ChairSatan Bernanke, as a gaggle of hot vampire babes are to Count Dracula.  I can't wait for the mob of angry villagers, with torches, and pitchforks to appear, and burn the castle to the ground.

 

 

 

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment peekcrackers
peekcrackers's picture

 Draghi should have a top hat on .. Might as well dress the part !

 

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 09:59 | Link to Comment Broomer
Broomer's picture

I opened this article because of the Nosferatu image; it might be worth reading, let's see.

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 10:08 | Link to Comment Broomer
Broomer's picture

Well, nothing I didn't already know, except for the garlic and European gypsies.

A good compilation of the problems in Europe though, for those arriving here today.

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 10:06 | Link to Comment Nachdenken
Nachdenken's picture

The vampires are long at our throats drawing blood.  Their blood banks are full.  Garlic seems to make the blood flow longer.

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 10:21 | Link to Comment LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

Translation for the simple minded: Bela Lugosi loves Bluestar

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 11:51 | Link to Comment BanjoDoug
BanjoDoug's picture

First, how is it that we see endless references to “entering another recession” (as in this article), hell we haven’t left the current depression.    I guess I should be thankful the manipulated B[L]S numbers tell us a [different] story, & that everything is ok,…  I guess I fell better now….  

Second,  how is it that the whole planet (or as portrayed in the media) thinks that loaning more money, i.e. having the Krauts co-sign for more unpayable Euro-loans is gonna solve anything?   Doesn’t the Greece affair provide enough clarity for the masses ?    Spending more than you make only enslaves you to the fractional banking system.    Continuing down this path does not fix things, it only leads to a breakup and worse,   but it does save the bankers & their empires for a while.

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 13:47 | Link to Comment shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

When you are riding the one trick printing pony, you just have to ride that bitch into the ground.

Speculating on tricks that pony can't learn is pointless.

Betting on how long the old nag can last is the only option.

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 12:57 | Link to Comment Svendblaaskaeg
Svendblaaskaeg's picture

Silver bullets bitchez!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!