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Waking Up To A Third Consecutive False Dawn For Stocks With Charles Biderman

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It appears we are, as a nation of desperately consuming investors, becoming increasingly cognitively dissonant. Charles Biderman, of TrimTabs, leaves the ominous clouds of the Bay Area for New York City and addresses our seemingly Pavlovian response for the third year in a row to a rising stock market (flooded with portfolio-rebalancing duration-destroying Central Bank money) as evidence that the real economy must be doing great. Of course, relying on tried and true facts such as real job growth and real wage growth and understanding the seasonally-abused-adjusted housing data realities, Biderman notes that the only money driving stocks up is corporate buybacks dominating selling pressure. While modestly bullish on these flows, he is growing more anxious. He sees insider selling surging (from 5:1 January to 14:1 February to 35:1 in March), there has been no new 'cash-takeovers' announced this month compared to $15bn per month last year, and the IPO pipeline is ramping up fast (supply will dominate demand) as the end of Operation Twist approaches removing yet another prop to the perceived reality of stocks.

 

 

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Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:35 | 2277506 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

sell into the buyback bitchez!

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:56 | 2277585 tempo
tempo's picture

The VIX is at a 5 year low and spx soars because deficit spending is wide open with the FED threating QE3 because its an election year "stupid". Things start to change in June when QE3 is more and more unlikely because it will be viewed as "political". Then all the risk of the election and expiring tax cuts looms larger and larger. The higher debt and interest rates and a slowing 2013 economy and earnings will be the kiss of death. We may see 1500 before May and even all time highs but then....

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:58 | 2277593 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

They won't have a choice come June. If the market crashes mom and pop bails them out by switching all their money to treasuries. If not they have to keep buying the long end of the curve even at these levels in the market.

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 16:17 | 2277649 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

A guy on my site makes these videos. Just trying to promote him. Pretty creative stuff.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07oOzLWFoEc&feature=player_embedded

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 16:06 | 2277617 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Never mind

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:36 | 2277507 q99x2
q99x2's picture

25 minutes to ramp higher than yesterday's close.

"

All of Wall Street's wildly bullish calls on stocks may be having just the opposite effect, driving wary mom-and-pop investors out of the market despite the long-standing rally.

"

There's mutiny at CNBC. GS didn't pay them for last month yet.

 

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:39 | 2277521 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

Did you forget? It's Wednesday, the Nasdaq carries the day on Wednesdays. We're well into the green over there.

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:51 | 2277566 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

Anyone noticing volume? 

Any idea why we are trading at levels seen during Xmas/New Year?

Is it just the machines?

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 16:04 | 2277612 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

Nevermind.......Bob Pisani (piss on me) just reminded me that all markets are running records and all is well!

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 16:04 | 2277614 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Massive selling into the close...NOT bullish.

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 23:43 | 2279134 rocker
rocker's picture

it's call diversification.  Sell stocks and going to cash.   Just Thinking and doing the same.  PMs are just held fast for over two years.  Lovin it. 

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:36 | 2277511 JoeStocks
JoeStocks's picture

More outflows to domestic equity funds!!

http://ici.org/research/stats/flows/flows_03_21_12

 

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:48 | 2277551 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

Thanks, you beat Tyler to the punch on that one. Pretty heafty outflow in equities.

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:50 | 2277559 resurger
resurger's picture

If AAPL is buying back its shares, does it feel threatened by that?!! I mean you have 268 hedgefunds buying your shares and shit loads of mutualfunds!!

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:51 | 2277563 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Crammin all the garbage into mom and pops 401K and pension funds. I hope theyve got good can openers because cat food not The Villages is in their future.

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:36 | 2277513 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

So as long as the fed keeps throwing money in this guy Biderman would remain bullish. Only turning bearish prior to the completion of one of the fed's program. Got it.

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:39 | 2277520 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Pssshaw! Nothing that cannot be solved by heavy drinking.

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 21:49 | 2278717 Freddie
Freddie's picture

"Pssshaw! Nothing that cannot be solved by heavy drinking."

And more money printing.

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:47 | 2277522 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"It appears we are, as a nation of desperately consuming investors, becoming increasingly cognitively dissonant."

I get that way myself sometimes. Thus my ID.

It matters not that you are suffering from cognitive dissonance. All that matters is what you do with it after you discover you suffer from CD.

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:51 | 2277564 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I've been told I suffer from OCD. Does that count ?

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:53 | 2277574 centerline
centerline's picture

Drinking heavily 'till the CD goes away?

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 21:51 | 2278726 Freddie
Freddie's picture

It is funny hearing about heavy drinking.  It reminds me of the old USSR with chronic alcoholism.  I guess humans get being sick of of being slaves controlled by their overlords and try to escape at least temporrarily.  Bush sucked but it was heaven compared to this.

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 16:13 | 2277638 Wakanda
Wakanda's picture

I'm not "...increasingly cognitively dissonant."

I just don't know what the fuck I'm doing, or going to do.

Sometimes it's almost blissful...

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:40 | 2277525 lemonobrien
lemonobrien's picture

"eye-ing the exit" I'm eye-ing gold to drop 100/200. 

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:57 | 2277592 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

if gold drops it presents the opportunity to acquire more or to move it to a Roth IRA. Up or down....until 'something big' happens it is all just noise, but noise that can be acted upon. Gold cannot/will not tank as long as the FED and the ECB dump trillions of new money into the economy annually.

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 16:10 | 2277630 gwar5
gwar5's picture

I don't trust most IRAs. When the bond market crashes, along with the USD, they can easily be confiscated. Perhaps an alternative is a self-directed IRA with an LLC to purchase foreign property, etc.

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:40 | 2277528 drchris
drchris's picture

Inconceivable!

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:41 | 2277530 resurger
resurger's picture

Summer of 2008 - Paul Tudor Jones

"Investors should fear the lack of fear it self, since optimism left plenty of of room for sentiment to deteriorate"

"More money THAN GOD" Sebastian Mallaby

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:44 | 2277538 q99x2
q99x2's picture

'the only money driving stocks up is corporate buybacks'

If central banks can buy a corporations stock then they can take over corporations with stock purchases made with fiat. A company can protect themselves from being taken over by buying back enough shares to counter the central banks attack.

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:45 | 2277541 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I think his being long a few weeks longer might bite him in the butt. I think the turn will come a lot sooner than operation twist ending.

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:45 | 2277542 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

There are no sellers - buy em!

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:46 | 2277545 mr. mirbach
mr. mirbach's picture

The only thing driving the market higher is INFLATION

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:49 | 2277554 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

I'm bullish but looking to get out! Geeze, I actually liked Charles until very recently.

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:51 | 2277562 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

oohhhhh the margin calls will be a blood bath.

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:53 | 2277573 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

This guy calls shenanigans only when he is ready to sell. I guess I don't blame him but I would not hold him up on any pedestals.

Twist is ending. Supposedly that means the fed is done buying the long end of the curve. Somebody has to step in and fill that gap. Last year they squeezed Gross's balls until he had no choice. I wonder who it will be this time.

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:55 | 2277581 resurger
resurger's picture

you!

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:58 | 2277596 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

haha I laugh in your general direction

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:57 | 2277588 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I just saw this shared:

Dallas Fed: Choosing the Road to Prosperity Why We Must End Too Big to Fail—Now

http://dallasfed.org/fed/annual/index.cfm

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:59 | 2277601 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The whole thing is now built upon TBTF though, a giant fortress has been built around the TBTF system, so now they want to end it? Yea well I dont believe it.

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 16:19 | 2277664 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

Correct - just a bunch of political headfakes -- if it came from the Fed its BS

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 16:15 | 2277642 gwar5
gwar5's picture

We're hostages with a gun to our heads and everybody is suffering from Stockholm Syndrome.

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 15:58 | 2277595 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So its all good with Biderman depending on what FED free money programs are going on or ending....I never liked the guy much at all.

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 16:00 | 2277600 ekm
ekm's picture

I absolutely like this guy. I check his daily youtube video every day.

Charles is the one that first said few weeks ago that he feels like this is going to be like a 1987 market crash. At that time they used to call it "elevator shaft" market crash.

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 22:15 | 2278801 huggy_in_london
huggy_in_london's picture

If its going to be like 1987 then why is he waiting to get out? He should be hitting the exits now (he probably is). This guys rants are pretty low quality.

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 16:01 | 2277604 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Looks like someone listened to Bidermann during  the runup to the close.

Ramp Fail.

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 16:07 | 2277621 Spigot
Spigot's picture

You go, Charles!

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 16:09 | 2277626 jrpuffnstuff
jrpuffnstuff's picture

Good for him being at the Harvard Club.  Hope he's eating from a silver spoon... asshole. 

 

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 16:12 | 2277635 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Insiders still have stock to sell?

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 16:13 | 2277637 AmazingLarry
AmazingLarry's picture

Not Operation Twist; Operation Spiral....counter clockwise forces make the turds dissapear down the shit pipe day by day, one by one....

 

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 16:21 | 2277661 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Corporate buybacks = more valuable stock options.

Lets grant ourselves a ton of stock options, far enough out of the money that our sheeple investors won't bleat too much and then, through the application of stock buybacks at the correct moments in the market, presto those options become valuable, are exercised, and the issued stock then sold asap. The analysts will never say a word about this practice since their employers want our investment banking business.

 

It is not only our government with a major share of sociopaths...

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 16:24 | 2277674 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

"Biderman notes that the only money driving stocks up is corporate buybacks dominating selling pressure. While modestly bullish on these flows, he is growing more anxious. He sees insider selling surging (from 5:1 January to 14:1 February to 35:1 in March)"

 

The stock buybacks (paid for by shareholders) drive the insider selling train by making options worth exercising, not due to improvements in the company but by management's shrinking the stock float.

 

Just another scam on the sheeple.

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 16:33 | 2277703 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

Goldman Sachs: Best Time in a Generation to Buy Stocks, Sell Bonds... Live on Yahoo   Anybody who reads this blog knows that if you don't do the exact opposite of what Goldman says, then you get stuck holding the empty bag...

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 16:49 | 2277761 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

So the top is in?

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 17:40 | 2277917 Cult of Criminality
Cult of Criminality's picture

Charles

I do kind of like you... but.... Harvards club ? Picture of the [edit;(one of) largest centers of Criminal Cult activity in the background ? shame , shame.

Im keeping my eye on you

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 17:42 | 2277926 Cult of Criminality
Cult of Criminality's picture

By the way Charles we are monitoring you through your rooms fire alarm

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 19:00 | 2278122 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...that was funny. Petraeus Romanus. 

Actually, we are monitoring his colon.  http://www.livescience.com/19176-military-nanosensors-soldiers-bodies.html 

...yep, sphincter signal is a go. 

P.S. Charlie, Christ loves you and maybe you should stick with the Kosher diet. Lol

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 19:06 | 2278154 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

I drink a lot too Mr. Biderman.  You are the shit!  However, may I recommend you don't use sentences with a lot of 'S''s.  If you cannot make it through the following you may want to re-edit your briefing.

She sells seashells by the seashore!

If you can't make it through this simple sentence you are probably too plowed to continue.

Sláinte!

Wed, 03/21/2012 - 21:44 | 2278706 Freddie
Freddie's picture

He is at the Harvard club in NYC probably having a few belts and hob nobbing with GoldMan Sachs parasites.

She's a slut selling seashells by the seashore to sea-men.

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