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Wall Street Response To Italian Auction

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Here is the kneejerk Wall Street response to the key event of the day. Funny how the Italians think it was a good auction and everyone else kinda sorta disagrees. 

ALESSANDRO MERCURI, STRATEGIST, LLOYDS BANK, LONDON

"Decent even though slightly disappointing (compared) to yesterday's auction. The 2022 bond was well bid, they sold 2.4 billion at the high end of the 2.5 billion range. The key thing that we saw yesterday was that Italian paper still commands a maturity premium. People are still concerned about the credit risk so the longer the maturity the higher they pay. All in all it's a decent reception."

DAVID SCHNAUTZ, RATE STRATEGIST, COMMERZBANK, LONDON

"While yesterday's 6-month bill rates declined to half the levels of the previous auction, today's decline in the auction yield by 'just' about 60 basis points versus end-November in such a high-yield territory underscores that the genuine pressure on Italy is still tremendous, despite bold ECB actions that has given the short ends a big boost.

"Not moving closer to the upper end of the target range is also very unusual for Italy, i.e. not a good sign."

PETER CHATWELL, RATE STRATEGIST, CREDIT AGRICOLE, LONDON

"These have been rather average auctions. The amount sold is 7.02 billion euros versus a 5-8 billion euro range, and the yield improvements we see in the auctions were largely already priced into the secondary market in last week's LTRO-fuelled rally."

ALESSANDRO GIANSANTI, RATE STRATEGIST, ING, AMSTERDAM

"It is slightly positive that they were able to issue the full amount in the 10-year and we have started to see some reduction in yield ... but 7 percent is still a very weak (result).

"The bid to cover ratio in the three-year was weak, but we are 200 basis points below the (yield) level of last month. The rally in the short-term is positive.

"It is also slightly positive that they were able to issue 7 billion given that we are on Dec. 29."

Via Reuters

 

 

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Thu, 12/29/2011 - 07:04 | 2018533 Spooky Polish
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What you see depends on where You sit ... 

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:38 | 2020064 smiler03
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What a stupid title, "Wall Street Response to Italian Auction".

You then quote three London Strategists and one in Amsterdam. Where the hell does Wall Street come into it?

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 07:05 | 2018534 GeneMarchbanks
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"Not moving closer to the upper end of the target range is also very unusual for Italy, i.e. not a good sign."

Yes. Unusual's the word...

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 07:07 | 2018537 Irish66
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wait an hour and see what the rates do

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 07:12 | 2018542 youngandhealthy
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"...everyone else kinda sorta disagrees...."

HELLO!!!!!!!!!! CAN U READ?

whats wrong with U? Normally very accurate but now U R carried away

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 07:35 | 2018569 Ghordius
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when it comes to all things beginning with eur- the early-morning-tyler is just grumpy...

you get used to it after a while...

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 08:24 | 2018646 Schmuck Raker
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Y & H, Ghord, who's fooling who?

I can get a 30 year mortgage for around half of what Italy pays to borrow for ten years.

Open. Your. Eyes.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 08:36 | 2018653 Ghordius
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I. Have. My. Eyes. Open. Since. I. Bought. Italian. Buoni. Ordinari. Del. Tesoro. In. Lire. For. 15.75%. Long. Time. Ago.

you should compare the amount being borrowed at 7% versus the amount that currently isn't

we still have a looooooong way to go - you don't seem to know much about bond markets, a hint:

99.9% of the time they are slow, 100% of the time they are political

your 30y mortgage in USD in the US is part of one of the most subsidized loan schemes ever made and you should know it

Italy brought the ratio from 120% of GDP to 100%, not that long time ago - it took a decade without really trying too much

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 08:54 | 2018707 Schmuck Raker
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"....30y mortgage in USD in the US is part of ONE OF the most subsidized loan schemes ever made...."

Another being Euro area, the difference being the effectiveness of said schemes.(Leaving aside the stupidity, etc. of both the ECB/FED)

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 10:10 | 2018932 falak pema
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he did say all bond market plays were 100% political...

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 07:14 | 2018544 ZeroPower
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EURUSD taking a bit of a breather downward but still new lows from yesterday's move.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 07:23 | 2018551 ForTheWorld
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Gold and Silver seem to have been expelled as well - down to $1531 and $26.85 an ounce respectively.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 07:50 | 2018589 ZeroPower
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Yes, silver negative on the year.

Lots of people here who ordered truckloads at basically any point this year (though most did in the $40++ range) are about as negative as equity index holders. But no they will say, silver was manipulated downward, whereas equities just reverted to reality. 

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 08:08 | 2018611 ForTheWorld
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Indeed. I think it's at this point I'd like to see some sort of input from any of the ZH contributors regarding these constant drops that seem to contradict everything that has been said in the last year about PMs. I'm not trying to goad them into some sort of angry response, but I would like to see what people are now thinking, or if they're just pushing out the timeline for when Gold and Silver go to the moon.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 08:22 | 2018643 tooktheredpill
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different people will always have different opinions and will also depend if they are invested in PM's or not. In times of stress the rule book won't help like it used to. What would help is a good profile of gold ownership or some inside information.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:48 | 2020092 smiler03
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+1 I have only been at ZH for 6 months plus but one thing I have read often is that Silver is known for it's volatility.

There are the silver bugs of course who are always bullish but I discount the opinion of anybody who says "Silver will be + $nn.nn before the end of the week" et al. 

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 08:09 | 2018616 ForTheWorld
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A downvote for stating verifiable numbers? Intriguing.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 07:14 | 2018545 Bastiat009
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Italy is a very wealthy country. Goldman managed to overthrow Berlusconi to take over. Now, things will be fine.

ZH has yet to talk about the gold crash because, I guess, it doesn't fit into the narrative.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 07:58 | 2018596 fonzanoon
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Silver 26.25

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 07:18 | 2018547 hugovanderbubble
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Italians doesnt want to be tied to ECB monetary policy.

Italians and spaniards are not German Slaves.

Back to Lira, Back to Peseta...

30-40% devaluation

-Italian Government Yield will raise up to 9-10%

7% x (1.30) = 9.1%

Why the US 10yrs Bond still moving back to 1.9%? ...Cos nobody in Italy wants long term domestic debt...(of course they need haircuts)

 

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 07:38 | 2018575 swani
swani's picture

I'm sure the Italians feel this way, too bad Monti's in the house.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 07:20 | 2018548 vegas
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That anybody would still lend to bankrupt nations still amazes me. Remember all those that couldn't wait to lend Greece money at 10%? How's that Hope & Change workin' out for ya?

 

http://vegasxau.blogspot.com

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 07:26 | 2018556 Jehu
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They have to mate. If they don't the Ponzi scheme collapses.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 08:00 | 2018603 farmerjohn2112
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The whole of Europe is insolvent and has no problem borrowing twenty bazillion euros from the ECB.

I'm solvent and fairly-compensated and I can't get a loan to fix my house.

Bitchez.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 07:27 | 2018555 hugovanderbubble
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Greece will leave the Euro just a matter of days...

the problem is the debt is gonna be paid in drachmas

 

CDS market -Trigger-Credit Event

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 07:28 | 2018559 Jehu
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And if that does happen what is the Drachma going to be worth?

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 07:34 | 2018563 hugovanderbubble
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between 50-70% less

 

For example,

In spain we have entered into EUR at 1 Euro = 166.386 pesetas, just a 40% devaluation = 232 pesetas per Euro...

In Greece will be harder and wider that depreciation.

 

Nomura has tested this scenario

Countries doesnt want to live in Austerity...Banks gonna suffer.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 07:36 | 2018570 gojam
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What are you basing a Greek exit on ?

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 07:41 | 2018577 hugovanderbubble
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In 3 main drivers:

1.- Portugal Treatment may 2011 (Lisbon), allows countries to leave VOLUNTARILY...

-Greeks as Italians will prefer to suffer a huge devaluation in the short term , but control their monetary policy...

2.Greek Reprofiling is a Credit Event, but their payment in Drachmas is not discounted yet---thats the real problem

You have a debt haircut + devaluation in future cash flows.

Iceland has been a test, but ICeland has nothing to do vs Greek Economics

3.-BNP,Deutsche Bank has integrated into their settlement middle and back office software a label with DRACHMAS (its evident Currency Wars is not  a kid game)

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 07:46 | 2018583 GeneMarchbanks
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Banks/Brokerages around Europe are testing the waters for a Dra[ch]ma return...

Don't call it a comeback

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fARpKl1Bsc

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 07:48 | 2018587 hugovanderbubble
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Bit [ch]ez¡

Banca Ambrosiana part II:¡

 

Il banquero di Dio¡"

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 07:48 | 2018586 Ghordius
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I agree on Greece, not on Italy

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 08:07 | 2018610 gojam
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............and Portugal ?

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 08:18 | 2018631 Ghordius
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good question - I'd say it all boils down to the way Greece leaves

which should have happened last summer

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 08:22 | 2018641 gojam
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You see, I agree with you on Italy because they are obviously being protected but Portugal definitely is not, they are paying double digit interest.

And Spain ? Despite their government taking strong action, including snatching pension funds, their exposure to Portugal could sink them too.

Perhaps it's time to start looking at a GPS exit and not a PIIGS exit.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 08:36 | 2018654 Schmuck Raker
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Pete Tchir intvw @ Bloomberg talks about who may go - good interview, 12/28:

TF's Tchir on Europe Sovereign Debt Crisis

[8 min]

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 10:05 | 2018839 falak pema
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peter Tchir does his number crunching in a one sided way; this is a currency war, hegemony play, and what brings Euro down and makes USD haven is the name of the game for some demented hacks. So quack along daffy duck. I don't believe much that comes out of WS pundits as any thing more than skewed snooker play. 

Not that his analysis is wrong as it reflects a market trend with a lot of clout to remanipulate the counter manipulates of the Euro technocrat cabal. WHy take sides amongst Oligarchical shills with hidden, skewed agendas...

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 07:30 | 2018560 Jehu
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I'm having flash backs to Nixon's famous quote, "I don't give a sh*t about the Lira!"

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 07:37 | 2018573 Ghordius
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Tricky Dick's ghost is everywhere nowadays...

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 07:42 | 2018580 hugovanderbubble
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No more Watergates plz:)

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 07:36 | 2018571 swani
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Average and slightly positive is the new horrendous. 

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 07:50 | 2018590 george1982
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that was an extreamly shit auction conidering the LTRO, everyone that disagrees is still drunk from xmas! IT WAS CRAP!!!!

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 07:55 | 2018592 youngandhealthy
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Why?

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 08:02 | 2018606 george1982
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yawn!!

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 08:07 | 2018608 george1982
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what was good about it?

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 08:10 | 2018617 hugovanderbubble
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Long Rates are raising again after auction...market knows italy has too much debt coming next 1H2012, so will force them to obtain extra yields.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 07:58 | 2018595 Irish66
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Are we just passing the debt ceiling with no debate, no fighting?  That is very telling!

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 08:00 | 2018602 XtraBullish
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My gold and silver shorts are now handsomely profitable and I look for continued SQUASHING of the "bugs" as the screams of the "Silver, bitches!" reverberates through the financial world. The PM's are (as stated here for the past month or so) TOSTADA!

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 08:15 | 2018622 fonzanoon
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The sentiment on here has been that silver and gold are not falling. They are just becoming disconnected from the paper price. That would imply that you can't find physical to buy today, or if you could it would be at much higher prices. I am curious to see if that turns out to be true. It just seems more likely that the temporary strength in the dollar is lowering pm prices in dollars. Whats the big deal? As the worst debt offenders out there we are getting quite a gift imho.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 08:48 | 2018686 TireBite
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I don't think the disconnect between paper and physical prices holds water at this point. I can still go to my local coin shop and get phys tracking the paper price. I would think an auction market such as eBay, would show a disconnect if there were one, but it tracks spot as well.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 08:17 | 2018628 bbelux
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If the EUR continue to drop, I'm delghted to see that after the FED, US citizen will rescue Europe by buying their goods! More BMW to come...

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 08:18 | 2018632 tim73
tim73's picture

London fucks always sing the same old song. Euro this and euro that..never supposedly good. Yanks, please haul that fucked up island to your side, we do not need those assholes here. Or sell it to Canada, might even get a penny or two...

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 09:30 | 2018787 Calmyourself
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I would dig up our war dead and tow the lot of you (Europe) to Antartica..  Your societies are dying, the smell just hasn't reached your nose yet, no worries though we are right behind you.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 09:53 | 2018868 youngandhealthy
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Behind??!!

U R miles ahead boy!!

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 10:37 | 2019016 Calmyourself
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Sure we are cuz you say so..  We have something called force projection you lack any semblance of that; meaning, we are a safe haven your "countries" are something to run from not towards.  Can you still be said to have countries since your all ruled from Brussels?

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 10:50 | 2019064 youngandhealthy
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Safe havens need to have some body. EMU (15) GDP = $12 500Bn ....UK= $2400Bn....

UK is a dwarf not a safe haven.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 08:19 | 2018634 Iliketurtles
Iliketurtles's picture

When do I buy nugt jeez it is getting smashed
Eur/usd 1.2868 yikes

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 16:02 | 2020143 smiler03
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This type of post where idiots type in SMS (mobile text) format instead of English seem to be multiplying.

I think they should automatically be downrated by ten points for being so f***ing irritating.  

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 08:31 | 2018650 melanie
melanie's picture

The government of Belgium just bailed out another financial instituation: Ethias for 100 million euro

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 08:34 | 2018652 Bartanist
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LOl ... The most important conclusion that I have come to this morning from reading ZH is that that I will NEVER, EVER under any circumstances buy EFFEN vodka, even though I like vodka.

THE EXPANDING ADs ARE SO F'N ANNOYING AND INTRUSIVE THAT THEY PISS ME OFF!

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 08:47 | 2018682 Tortuga
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get firefox from mozilla and all that shit goes away, today.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 08:39 | 2018664 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

I wonder how much of this auction the taxpayers of the US own.  Thanks Uncle Ben.

Thu, 12/29/2011 - 15:31 | 2020039 Bindar Dundat
Bindar Dundat's picture

Hey , for the Greeks to seal something it has to worthwhile...they have done it again...haircuts all around and now massive devaluation of what little they will pay back.  OUT damn SPOTICA...

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