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What a stupid title, "Wall Street Response to Italian Auction".
You then quote three London Strategists and one in Amsterdam. Where the hell does Wall Street come into it?
"Not moving closer to the upper end of the target range is also very unusual for Italy, i.e. not a good sign."
Yes. Unusual's the word...
wait an hour and see what the rates do
"...everyone else kinda sorta disagrees...."
HELLO!!!!!!!!!! CAN U READ?
whats wrong with U? Normally very accurate but now U R carried away
when it comes to all things beginning with eur- the early-morning-tyler is just grumpy...
you get used to it after a while...
Y & H, Ghord, who's fooling who?
I can get a 30 year mortgage for around half of what Italy pays to borrow for ten years.
Open. Your. Eyes.
I. Have. My. Eyes. Open. Since. I. Bought. Italian. Buoni. Ordinari. Del. Tesoro. In. Lire. For. 15.75%. Long. Time. Ago.
you should compare the amount being borrowed at 7% versus the amount that currently isn't
we still have a looooooong way to go - you don't seem to know much about bond markets, a hint:
99.9% of the time they are slow, 100% of the time they are political
your 30y mortgage in USD in the US is part of one of the most subsidized loan schemes ever made and you should know it
Italy brought the ratio from 120% of GDP to 100%, not that long time ago - it took a decade without really trying too much
"....30y mortgage in USD in the US is part of ONE OF the most subsidized loan schemes ever made...."
Another being Euro area, the difference being the effectiveness of said schemes.(Leaving aside the stupidity, etc. of both the ECB/FED)
he did say all bond market plays were 100% political...
EURUSD taking a bit of a breather downward but still new lows from yesterday's move.
Gold and Silver seem to have been expelled as well - down to $1531 and $26.85 an ounce respectively.
Yes, silver negative on the year.
Lots of people here who ordered truckloads at basically any point this year (though most did in the $40++ range) are about as negative as equity index holders. But no they will say, silver was manipulated downward, whereas equities just reverted to reality.
Indeed. I think it's at this point I'd like to see some sort of input from any of the ZH contributors regarding these constant drops that seem to contradict everything that has been said in the last year about PMs. I'm not trying to goad them into some sort of angry response, but I would like to see what people are now thinking, or if they're just pushing out the timeline for when Gold and Silver go to the moon.
different people will always have different opinions and will also depend if they are invested in PM's or not. In times of stress the rule book won't help like it used to. What would help is a good profile of gold ownership or some inside information.
+1 I have only been at ZH for 6 months plus but one thing I have read often is that Silver is known for it's volatility.
There are the silver bugs of course who are always bullish but I discount the opinion of anybody who says "Silver will be + $nn.nn before the end of the week" et al.
A downvote for stating verifiable numbers? Intriguing.
Italy is a very wealthy country. Goldman managed to overthrow Berlusconi to take over. Now, things will be fine.
ZH has yet to talk about the gold crash because, I guess, it doesn't fit into the narrative.
Italians doesnt want to be tied to ECB monetary policy.
Italians and spaniards are not German Slaves.
Back to Lira, Back to Peseta...
-Italian Government Yield will raise up to 9-10%
7% x (1.30) = 9.1%
Why the US 10yrs Bond still moving back to 1.9%? ...Cos nobody in Italy wants long term domestic debt...(of course they need haircuts)
I'm sure the Italians feel this way, too bad Monti's in the house.
That anybody would still lend to bankrupt nations still amazes me. Remember all those that couldn't wait to lend Greece money at 10%? How's that Hope & Change workin' out for ya?
They have to mate. If they don't the Ponzi scheme collapses.
The whole of Europe is insolvent and has no problem borrowing twenty bazillion euros from the ECB.
I'm solvent and fairly-compensated and I can't get a loan to fix my house.
Greece will leave the Euro just a matter of days...
the problem is the debt is gonna be paid in drachmas
CDS market -Trigger-Credit Event
And if that does happen what is the Drachma going to be worth?
between 50-70% less
In spain we have entered into EUR at 1 Euro = 166.386 pesetas, just a 40% devaluation = 232 pesetas per Euro...
In Greece will be harder and wider that depreciation.
Nomura has tested this scenario
Countries doesnt want to live in Austerity...Banks gonna suffer.
What are you basing a Greek exit on ?
In 3 main drivers:
1.- Portugal Treatment may 2011 (Lisbon), allows countries to leave VOLUNTARILY...
-Greeks as Italians will prefer to suffer a huge devaluation in the short term , but control their monetary policy...
2.Greek Reprofiling is a Credit Event, but their payment in Drachmas is not discounted yet---thats the real problem
You have a debt haircut + devaluation in future cash flows.
Iceland has been a test, but ICeland has nothing to do vs Greek Economics
3.-BNP,Deutsche Bank has integrated into their settlement middle and back office software a label with DRACHMAS (its evident Currency Wars is not a kid game)
Banks/Brokerages around Europe are testing the waters for a Dra[ch]ma return...
Don't call it a comeback
Banca Ambrosiana part II:¡
Il banquero di Dio¡"
I agree on Greece, not on Italy
............and Portugal ?
good question - I'd say it all boils down to the way Greece leaves
which should have happened last summer
You see, I agree with you on Italy because they are obviously being protected but Portugal definitely is not, they are paying double digit interest.
And Spain ? Despite their government taking strong action, including snatching pension funds, their exposure to Portugal could sink them too.
Perhaps it's time to start looking at a GPS exit and not a PIIGS exit.
Pete Tchir intvw @ Bloomberg talks about who may go - good interview, 12/28:
TF's Tchir on Europe Sovereign Debt Crisis
peter Tchir does his number crunching in a one sided way; this is a currency war, hegemony play, and what brings Euro down and makes USD haven is the name of the game for some demented hacks. So quack along daffy duck. I don't believe much that comes out of WS pundits as any thing more than skewed snooker play.
Not that his analysis is wrong as it reflects a market trend with a lot of clout to remanipulate the counter manipulates of the Euro technocrat cabal. WHy take sides amongst Oligarchical shills with hidden, skewed agendas...
I'm having flash backs to Nixon's famous quote, "I don't give a sh*t about the Lira!"
Tricky Dick's ghost is everywhere nowadays...
No more Watergates plz:)
Average and slightly positive is the new horrendous.
that was an extreamly shit auction conidering the LTRO, everyone that disagrees is still drunk from xmas! IT WAS CRAP!!!!
what was good about it?
Long Rates are raising again after auction...market knows italy has too much debt coming next 1H2012, so will force them to obtain extra yields.
Are we just passing the debt ceiling with no debate, no fighting? That is very telling!
My gold and silver shorts are now handsomely profitable and I look for continued SQUASHING of the "bugs" as the screams of the "Silver, bitches!" reverberates through the financial world. The PM's are (as stated here for the past month or so) TOSTADA!
The sentiment on here has been that silver and gold are not falling. They are just becoming disconnected from the paper price. That would imply that you can't find physical to buy today, or if you could it would be at much higher prices. I am curious to see if that turns out to be true. It just seems more likely that the temporary strength in the dollar is lowering pm prices in dollars. Whats the big deal? As the worst debt offenders out there we are getting quite a gift imho.
I don't think the disconnect between paper and physical prices holds water at this point. I can still go to my local coin shop and get phys tracking the paper price. I would think an auction market such as eBay, would show a disconnect if there were one, but it tracks spot as well.
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