Wall Street Warns Tim Geithner That The Dollar Is Starting To Lose Its Reserve Status
The Treasury's Borrowing Advisory Committee, chaired by such luminaries as JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, which according to some (and by some we mean anyone who cares about such things) is the brains behind the decision-making process of US debt issuance has released its quarterly minutes, in which it has issued one of the most stark warnings about the fate of the US Dollar to date. While it is now a daily occurrence for China and Russia to bash the dollar, for the most part still powerless to provide an alternative (but rapidly gaining), the same warning coming from Jamie and Lloyd has to be taken far, far more seriously. Which is precisely what happened today. As Bloomberg reports, "The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee... said the outperformance of haven currencies and those from emerging nations has aided in the debasement of the dollar’s reserve status, according to comments included in discussion charts presented ahead of the quarterly refunding. The Treasury published the documents today. “The idea of a reserve currency is that it is built on strength, not typically that it is ‘best among poor choices’,” page 35 of the presentation made by one committee member said. “The fact that there are not currently viable alternatives to the U.S. dollar is a hollow victory and perhaps portends a deteriorating fate.”"
But, wait a second... Isn't Ben Bernanke debasing the dollar precisely for the benefit of the members of the TBAC? And considering that he has done such a tremendous job, is it a little hypocritical to be taking the USD devaluation in one hand, and complaining about it with another? Perhaps someone less jaded than us can answer. As for another important question looming over the US, namely the so called imminent US downgrade, the TBAC has spoken: "None of the members thought that a downgrade was imminent." Which means that both S&P and Fitch have now been bribed with enough peas to keep their mouths shut. The status quo wins again.
Some other interesting observations:
- Primary Dealers expect a much smaller fiscal deficit in 2011 than either the CBP or OMB, at $1358BN compared to $1480BN and $1645BN respectively. Which means, if wrong, that Dealers will be on the hook to purchase up to $300 billion more debt than currently modelled. Will they be able to handle this extra load?
- PDs expect 2011 Marketable Borrowing to be between $980 and $2055 Billion. A rather wide range
- Bills as a percentage of the portfolio have plunged to decade lows, while coupons are at decade highs
- From the previous bullet point, the PDs expect the average maturity of debt to continue to increase. We disagree considering the hundreds of billions in Bills that will have to be reissued to make up for the 2 month non-rolling fiasco
- There is $1.8 trillion in debt refinancing needs in 2011; Just over $1.4 trillion in 2012, and just under $1.1 trillion in 2013. Good luck rolling all of this debt.
The TBAC's conclusion is actually rather spot on:
- The benefits of extension do not come for free. Historical analysis suggests that shorter term funding has at many times been both cheaper and the volatility costs have not been high
- Recent cycles of rising rates have not lasted long enough for maturity extension to pay off
- It is possible, however, that “this time is different” because
- Nominal rates are much closer to the zero bound than previous periods
- Deficits are very high historically and rising interest expense less acceptable
- Concentrated foreign ownership creates less reliable demand
- The benefits of funding attributable to being the reserve currency may be fading
- While this presentation has focused exclusively on average maturity, a topic for future study is the impact of the distribution of maturities on total interest expense
That indeed would be an interesting analysis
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Wall Street Warns...
Huh? Wall Street represents perpetual dollar selling...which threatens the US dollar as reserve currency status. This one is rich.
We will never get out of this with these same crooks at the helm. There is simply no way the US can normalize as long as this banking cartel remains intact.
We are so screwed.
GET + GOLD ...
“The fact that there are not currently viable alternatives to the U.S. dollar..."
My stack of gold and silver looks pretty viable to me, bitchez.
PM viability, bitchez.
This post is a half lie.
The dollar is gaining in real terms.
Anyone not holding dollars will be crushed.
But please make sure the dollars you hold are pre 1964 dimes, quarters, halves and dollar coins only.
Argentum and Aurum work just fine bitchz
The cited Bloomberg article also states:
I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that gold is counted under "other currencies".
"Winter is coming!" --Lord Eddard Stark from A Game of Thrones
We have reached the point of diminishing returns from all of these "stimulus" Ponzi schemes: U.S. QE & "TARP" for the termite-infested and rotting TBTF banks; EU bailouts of peripheral debtor nations; Japanese roads/bridges to nowhere; half-empty Chinese buildings and malls, etc.
Most everyone is beginning to realize it, except for the die-hard Keynesian "bank-government" cabals. Why do we listen and allow bank and investment executives to take government posts over and over again? It's like a rotating army of foxes guarding, nay--grooming and cultivating the hen house.
Slowly, but surely, the appetite for even more Ponzi schemes is reaching an end: economically and politically. Unfortunately, this house of cards will fall and fall hard. There is no longer a soft landing. We only have the spectres of hyperinflation or massive debt deflationary collapse.
"You know nothing, Geithner, Bernanke, Trichet!" --adapted from A Game of Thrones
P.S. Gold is good if we go the hyperinlationary route; not so good in a deflationary spiral. Always good are steel and food. Ask the Lannisters.
QE3 = More Fiats Money For Sacks ...
More Food Stamps for the US Sheeple ...
Consolation Prize - - -
The Euro will tank about 7 days before the USD does.
"The way Europe is operating right now, it's what I called recently 'cognitive dissonance,'" or "basically doing the same thing thinking they're going to get a different outcome," Scott Minerd, CIO of the fixed-income firm Guggenheim Partners, said in an interview on CNBC Tuesday.
Hey, we've got our very own Cognitive Dissonance here on ZH.
What do you think of them using your Trademark, CD?
As I'm certain ZH's CD knows very well, Scott Minerd misused the term "Cognitive Dissonance". What he meant was "insanity" - doing the same thing over and over, but expecting a different result. "Cognitive Dissonance" means something very different.
And that's the kicker:
Wall Street runs up debt, creates impossible position, creates atmosphere of fear (TBTF), the Gov. bails them out, Wall Street pockets that cash, instead of putting it into the economy, the economy tanks, because there's a loss of production capabillity, the end of consumerism, and now the homeowners have to pay the banks AGAIN, while everything except Stocks depreciates, the dollar is unable to grow out of the debt, and then Wall Street warns the Gov. at first and then is kind enough to lend the Gov. that money. All of this, while the banks charge the Gov. (and taxpayer) interest, in all the different transactions, all in imaginary money, in bank computers.
All while the various characters hop from Gov. to Bank position. (since they're the experts and know best)
Same trick they're now trying to pull in Europe: A classic "fast-change trick". A triple one actually.
Wanna play?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jTuy2MsevC8
So does this mean that in order to save USD as world currency Jamie & Lloyd will tell Bernank to not print?
Hahahahaha, auw my tummy, hahahahah...
Nah... Jamie and Lloyd want to be on record as saying 'We warned ya'...
It's a "gentleman's" game called Loot America.
Get serious. Didn't you read the article? JPM and Goldman Sucks are at the helm. Lighten up a bit.
This is like Mayor McCheese warning about the poor nutritional value of McDonalds food!
Mayor McCheese was assassinated. 7 sec video.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97jvsBWkMuo
+++
The more things change, the more they stay the same...that is, until they don't! Got Gold?
Got Gold?
http://houstondreamteam.org/photos/photo4/HC_DR_Gold_Teeth3.jpg
Ya know, with all the theft of infrastructure wire, houses being stripped, and items such as manholes being stolen for scrap value; does anyone care to predict when we start seeing wholesale grave looting for gold teeth, jewelry, etc?
Cdad, looks like the 'ole burrito is gonna rally for a few more days.
When we walk away from global warming, Kyoto, when we are irresponsibly slow in moving toward AIDS in Africa, when we don't advance and live up to our own rhetoric and standards, we set a terrible message of duplicity and hypocrisy.
John F. Kerry
We didn't become the most prosperous country in the world just by rewarding greed and recklessness. We didn't come this far by letting the special interests run wild. We didn't do it just by gambling and chasing paper profits on Wall Street. We built this country by making things, by producing goods we could sell.
Barack Obama
We're in a giant car heading towards a brick wall and everyone's arguing over where they're going to sit.
David Suzuki
Capitalists are no more capable of self-sacrifice than a man is capable of lifting himself up by his own bootstraps.
Vladimir Lenin
Capitalism is the legitimate racket of the ruling class.
Al Capone
I rob banks for a living, what do you do?
John Dillinger
Uh ok, and your point is.....
They want the pensions, IRA's, & 401K's & for us all to eat cake...
The C*** S***kers on Wall Street helped finance Hope & Change. F them!
Aren't these the same banks that needed bailouts just a few years ago?
"But, wait a second... Isn't Ben Bernanke debasing the dollar precisely for the benefit of the members of the TBAC? And considering that he has done such a tremendous job, is it a little hypocritical to be taking the USD devaluation in one hand, and complaining about it with another? Perhaps someone less jaded than us can answer."
It's not hypocrisy, it's called deliberate deception. These people are out to destroy the world monetary system and replace it with a One World Fiat Currency. Step One of that plan is destroying the dollar.
These arrogant shitbags are pretty sure they can do this without anyone noticing what is really going on, and to their credit, they are mostly correct.
Hey, Grand Plans are for people that can restrain themselves. They don't plan ahead, they are banksters treating every next bonus as their last.
They are vampires explaining to their victim that she should excersise more, eat more healthy food, vitamins, the works....
More theory meets reality.
They always have had a firm grasp of the obvious (well, most of the time....ok, some of the time).
“The fact that there are not currently viable alternatives to the U.S. dollar is a hollow victory and perhaps portends a deteriorating fate.”"
Hogwash!
You don't need an alternative. You simply need to stop the debasement and back it with something more stable than madmen who own a printing press. Say.....um....let me see, I have it right here on the tip of my tongue.
I got it.........GOLD.
Now you wouldn't be talking your book, would you?
Talking my pocketbook. Is that what you mean?
My 'book' is set up long the madmen's eventual destruction of all fiat. And has been that way for nearly 10 years.
More people make their trades based on what Cognitive Dissonance says than Jim Cramer.
he's talking common fucking sense, first of all. also economic history.
You're right, but they're deliberately defining the problem so that gold isn't one of the solutions.
Of course. That's how you steer and eventually win an argument.
Just ask Ron Paul, who is always shut out of the meaningful debates later in the game. Lie, then refer to your lie as the truth. Then have other people print the lie as the truth. Bingo, instant "truth' quicker than powdered Kool-Aid mixed with water.
A lie told often enough becomes the truth.
Vladimir Lenin
If you tell a big enough lie and tell it frequently enough, it will be believed.
Adolf Hitler
A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on.
Winston Churchill
There's only two people in your life you should lie to... the police and your girlfriend.
Jack Nicholson
1 world currency is their 'viable solution'.
Imprison the worlds Maniacal Monetizers! Problem SOLVED!
More financial terrorism from the financial sector and the proprietary trading desks of the primary dealers. These assholes are chomping at the bit to buy real assets for pennies on the dollar. Fuck them. A strong dollar is fine with me (at least until it is all converted into physical PMs or real assets for my business).
I thought he said the US was pursuing strong dollar policies?
Yes B.B. as in strong like Stinky Cheese!
I agree with your sentiment even if I am not completely comfortable with your metaphor. :)
Trading dollars for toilet paper..... winning!
Toilet Paper has been rising steadily against the USD.
We need a USD/TLP pair
Hell, the price of gasoline/oil has been warning for awhile.....
--President Barack Obama
--Timothy F. Geithner
-- Ben S. Bernanke. Press conference.
Damn, should have seen that one coming! LOL
Duh gee George who could have seen this coming ? They are just now coming to this conclusion? After they begged abd begged for more printing and more money from the tax payer? What a bunch of ass clowns.
A new currency will be based upon (at best) gold and silver, or (at worst) spent shell casings.
We can only hope that some of the banksters will be taking delivery of the copper and lead that they are due.
Please don't interrupt Timmy's Momentum on the Road to the Nobel Prize in Economics. He's sooooo soooo close....just another TARP...or maybe a little more QE.....even Hank "Hacksaw" Paulson is getting nervous and Fidgiting more then usual for him.
Aaaaand on that note, did anyone read Bill Bonner's The Daily Reckoning today? Here is a tasty snippet:
"The debt deal is done. And the Great Correction intensifies... as expected.
“Another bear market has begun,” says our old friend Marc Faber.
“After debt deal: economy in deeper peril,” says MSNBC.
Why would the economy be in deeper peril? Actually, it’s in the same peril. But most people didn’t know what peril it was in. They had swallowed the “recession... recovery” story. They believed it was just a matter of time before the economy got back on its feet.
But it’s not a recession. And there will be no recovery. Never."
Mr Bonner has to be one of the most colorful writers with a depth of history and economics rarely seen. I enjoy history from an economists perspective. GL! to everyone! The next few days.....weeks....months....years will be rocky according to Roubini, Rogers and even Krugman.
You want a prediction!
"It's gonna be cold. It's gonna be grey and it's going to last you for the rest of your life."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWmbuKSWLDE
seeing the writing on the wall these two fine upstanding gentleman are attempting to get ahead of the curve so they'll have cover when the inevitable happens.
Perhaps the Primary Dealer mandate suddenly doesn't look so appealing in a world with questionable client demand - particular the obligation to actively participate in U.S. Treasury auctions?
thou shall reap what thou sows
Chinese students laugh at Tim Geither
http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-students-laugh-at-tim-geithner-2009-6
HOT OFF THE PRESS, CHECK THIS OUT!
Its like a bunch of kids in a club making up the rules as they go.
i'm amazed the USA oligarchs have kept the charade going this long, tbqh.
i think their only issue is a lack of an alternative.
Who knows? Maybe they were hitting the Bong when they wrote this.
Who knows? Maybe they were merely throwing the Russkies and Reds a bone similar to Timmy's Mantra, "we want a strong dollar" speech to the kids at beijing Univeristy last year.
Who knows? Spin happens from strange corners and Dark Alleys, and from smoke-filled corridors.
Who knows? Maybe Aliens (the ones from outer space, that is) have taken over their Bodies?
This is serious. The FED shareholders are indicating they need dollar strength. QE3 is no longer a done deal. Next a private phone call will go to Beranke ordering him to stiffen up his stance on no more easing required. Issue a press release or something.
I doubt they are really worried about the U.S. Dollar, as long as oil prices continue to crash upon any and all "convulsions" that occur in the financial markets.
Nobody cares about gold, Bernanke doesn't even care.
If oil was careening past $120 then I'd say he would have a problem.
Right now, oil at $91 is a much needed "tax cut" for consumers.
Momo, where is your apology to general jim? Nobody cares about gold? Sounds like someone sold their 'yellow rocks' a long time ago at a much lower price. You must be puking up blood. LOL
I posted a "Hats Off" to General Jim yesterday and admitted my "Formula" had broken down and it was time to adapt to the new change.
Fortunately, I have plenty of physical gold left and I'm doing very well thank you, and I bought some silver Philharmonics the day before the low last month from NW Mint and they won't be delivered until mid-Sept.
You own plenty of physical gold yet have been mocking it for months....?
You've been selling the drops and buying the tops! LMAO!!!!!!
NW Mint? WTF? You live in LA and have Tulving right there (among others) and you're buying from an outfit that has well documented problems/issues/complaints?
I call BULLSHIT on that.
notice he says he bought gold after the move higher. this seems highly doubtful given his shrill plea for it to drop. i think he's lying to perfect strangers, again, for no reason than his own insecurities.
LOL, Robo deeming $91 oil 'low'.
Robotrader:
I agree with most of your thought process, but I disagree upon your assertion "Nobody cares about gold, Bernanke doesn't even care".
Gold is the key which will unlock the oil price rise and dollar devaluation(tsunami coming back to US).
Paper Gold price is the reference now for setting physical Gold market. Once it breaks, producers will reject dollar over Gold, Oil goes up. Read ANOTHER/FOFOA.
"Nobody cares about gold, Bernanke doesn't even care."
Congratulations, you win the prize for the stupidest statement of the day. You are in the running for the weekly, monthly and yearly prizes too.
I think Tim Geithner is the best Treasury Secretary in US history, and you all should recognize his talents.
Is that you Timmy?
This is sarcasm, maybe you've heard of me.
You're a legend in your own mind :) I was being sarcastic too.
You can't beat a horse with no horse. Bring back der Reichsmark. A new Sheriff can do wonders for a town.
Chris Martenson and Nate Hagens 48 minute interview.
Must listen
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/nate-hagens-were-not-facing-shortage-energy-longage-expectations/61024
Note the very poor writing style revealed in those two quotations. Jamie Dimon?
This is like a hog telling a pig that it needs to go on a diet.
Bitcoins?
Wall Street warns Geithner? Geithner IS Wall St. Puppet show.
Yes and the fact that there's no alternative puts Gold at about par with DJIA in about a year and a half. You know, when the debt ceiling is reached, yet again.
Parity??? You can't eat DJIA!
I just don't see the U.S. losing the reserve currency status in the near future.
What would you replace it with? The Euro? The RMB?
In fact, I see an endless Japanese-style recession where the world flocks into our treasuries.
But what do I know?
http://geraldcelente.proboards.com
I don't know what you know, sorry I can't help you there. BUT, isn't Japan's situation very different, since most of their debt is bought domestically? (By Japanes investors) What would you replace it with??? Comon, how many times must it be said??? AU/AG!!! A little annoyed the you pimp your discussion board with every post, but whatever.
Hey I got it! Lets try that 'quantitative easing' thing again, you know...printing money to make things appear better in a depression! Nevermind its shown to be a total failure and only makes things worse, its all we've got!