Wall Street's Response: The Summit Is A Failure

Tyler Durden's picture

The overnight agreement by 17 European countries to tighten euro-area budget controls and expand bailout funds fails to address key aspects of the crisis and may fall at the first hurdle, analysts and investors say. The summary of various Wall Street expert opinions is compiled and presented below from Bloomberg. It is not pretty.

  • Fidelity’s Trevor Greetham says the agreement misses the point; crisis not about govt profligacy, is a balance of payments crisis, like the one in Asia in 1990s:
    • Policy response has focused on liquidity, has not gone far enough; enforcing austerity “unlikely to succeed”
    • Only full burden sharing, with clear and unconditional ECB support, forceful policies that inflate the core would end the crisis; volatility is here to stay
  • Daiwa’s Chris Scicluna says fiscal tightening, adopting balanced budget rule not a key concern for investors; may lead to deep recessions, even deflationary spirals
    • Fiscal rules wouldn’t have prevented crisis; Germany, France and not Italy, Spain were transgressores pre-2008
    • More cause for cautious optimism on stabilization mechanisms, enhancement of IMF’s resources; implementation risks remain
  • Evolution’s Gary Jenkins says success of the agreement may hinge on “how much hard cash gets behind it;” If euro zone contributions are agreed next week may trigger contributions from others, inc. BRICs, other G20, Japan
  • ING’s Alessandro Giansanti says private sector involvement still possible under new ESM
    • Hardly anything carved in stone, “bazooka” is a trio of smaller fire weapons, national decision-making processes could still spoil last night’s plans
  • BNY Mellon’s Simon Derrick says failure to win agreement of all 27 members raises question of how rules will be administered
    • New funding to IMF smaller than mooted earlier in week; questionable whether sufficient firepower is available to restore confidence in Italy
    • Given compromised nature of political response it is difficult to see investors (or rating agencies) giving the Euro-zone authorities the benefit of the doubt for much longer

But the robots don't care: we are back to blind buying on headlines, until the required 2-3 hours passes for even the 19 year old vacuum tube programmers to grasp that the situation is now the worst it has ever been.

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Irish66's picture

Can you explain the implications of UK leaving the EU

Ghordius's picture

Quite unlikely. Still. How about (re)joining the EFTA?

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EFTA

gojam's picture

IMPORTANT:

Sweden, Hungary, and Czech Rep agree to sign up.

UK now alone.

Ghordius's picture

but, but, the headline is: "Wall Street's Response: The Summit Is A Failure"

gojam's picture

Ghordius,

I would expect all ZHers, even you, to recognise the difference between Politics and economics.

I've not seen a single announcement which addresses the fundemental problems the EZ faces.

This is all a distraction.

Oh regional Indian's picture

Haaah! After all these days I figured your avaatar. O Qpy. Very nice.

And you are right on the money. Politics and economics are anyways now merely two actors in a comedy slowly but surely going tragic.

ORI

/the-plan/

Ghordius's picture

hey, this is ZH, write more than three lines and it's easily wasted

a serious approach to "no overspending" by 17 countries is quite a thing, at this stage, both politically and economically

gojam's picture

Not when the problems are immediate and pressing.

This Treaty is to be signed in March 2012 and how long for implementation?

You think the EZ has that long?

Ghordius's picture

IMHO, yes

regarding the thorny issues of how an individual country would have to cope with an exit, here the better discussion 1962104

regarding the EU "undecided", you just brought the news that Sweden, the Czech Rep and Hungary are on board

regarding the current issue with the sovereign bonds, the ECB has now more green light to "manage" the markets, i.e. build up "street creds" of "whacking speculation" at irregular patterns (and buying a bit more bonds/monetize w/o too much political fallout)

regarding the medium sized banks in France, Italy and Germany, the Three are using the threat of forced recap or nationalization, i.e. they will have to stuff their balance sheets with Sov Bonds (not the first time)

they still could slip on this ice, but it is starting to look much, much better, also thanks to Italy's new law

provisional agreements are often much more binding then final ones, the agreement is in March, yes, but until then they all have to live it up even more strongly than afterwards

gojam's picture

No point in arguing. We'll see soon enough.

smiler03's picture

It's funny how the Rebublic of Ireland are happily going along without their guarantee of 12 1/2% Corporate Taxes. Their rate is so much lower than for example, Austria - 25% Germany 29.8% France 33.33% Italy 31.4%

Just Ireland on their own will sink this ship of 17. Its a FARCE.

smiler03's picture

From the Irish Premiere: 

"Mr Kenny also said that corporation tax would remain a red line issue for Ireland. He also said that he had received a good hearing for his proposal that Ireland be allowed access new mechanisms to help ease debt repayments. He referred that to €63 billion of loans Ireland had taken out before the State entered the bailout at punitive interest rates.

TheSheepWolf's picture

No no no... I will move to UK then.

EscapeKey's picture

The UK will eventually sign, once toothless provisions have been inserted.

Fiscal union, here we come; aka welfare transfer from North to South AND finance industry.

We're all supposed to be good commies now.

WhiteNight123129's picture

No it won´t come because a real solution means that the politicians in France, Spain Italy have to just give up their punch bowl to Berlin. What power is left to a politicians if he can not write checks on some of his promises using senioriage money? Do you really think that Sarkozy wants to give up what he had fought for all is life for, that is control and power?  That is a universal rule for all the politicians. The only way they can do it is if they think that merging different states (Germany pre 1871 ) or US colonies in the late Seventeen hundreds, if they believe that they can create a larger political block, a bigger monster if you will AND if they believe that they can actually become ruler of this bigger monster or have some role in it.  So in plain english, if you are in Breme pre 1871 you sign on the Prussian union because you think you can actually have a political career in this bigger union, same thing in the Colonies. Unless the local/national politicians believe that they can have a big career in the new thing, only then they will do a fiscal union. At the same time public opinion must like the idea, because there is also a short term agenda of immediate elections. So when Napoleon III attacked Prussia, nationalism was pushing in the back. When teh Colonies in the late seventeen hundreds in America had a common enemy which was the British colonial power. Now in EUrope there is no such cohesion and wind in the back of politicians to implement this merger. You need both conditions for a Union to succeed, that the politicians envision some personal gain in teh move and that the population likes the idea. I am not sure we have the necessary conditions here.

Iconoclast's picture

UK to become another state of the USA?

Oh regional Indian's picture

Actually it IS already the other way around.

ORI

zippy_uk's picture

Believe it or not that got discussed by Harold Wilson's govenment in the 1960s. Conculded that the US would not want us.

Kingbingo's picture

The UK is not alone, Hungary will very likely not agree, while Sweden and the Czech Republic are consulting their governing partners. 

 

However, this considerably increases the pressure on the UK to leave the EUSSR. The result would be the UK save around £65bn a year (about twice what we spend on defence) through the various costs of membership.

The EUSSR itself would loose direct membership fees of around £15bn. Germany would then be left as the only net contributor.

All intelligent right thinking Brits are pleased that it is looking increasingly likely we will be rid of the EUSSR.   

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Your manufacturing is now less than 10% of GDP. Your 'defence' can be summarized in 2 letters: U-S and North Sea oil is about to be ... ?

So... what's left? A criminal banking cabal in the city of London, shitty football culture, and a potential war with Argentina over the Falklands...

Happy Holidays.

zippy_uk's picture

Its not 10% its 14% and rising. It now costs less to manufacture many items in the North East than it does in China. Of the manufacturing we do have its all high end, high tech backed by research Universities in the worlds top ten.

Education - huge industry backed by the English language. Creative arts - the same.

Most of the city is not corrupt - that which is is no different from other financial centres - we do shipping and insurance and legal services also.

As far as the Falklands is concerned - there is huge oil deposits (drilled and confirmed) downn there and one diplomat abord a Trident armed nuclear sub should clear up any difficulty who owns the place.

falak pema's picture

Falklands oil : 

really? How huge is huge? 

As to who owns it : logically the people of Falklands, in partnership with logical market Argentina. So what's the problem for gunboat diplomacy? I'm sure the Argentinians would accept a win-win deal with tiny Falklands. Its very far from the UK you know.

I've looked it up : 6 billion barrels potential. At 100 000 bbl/day, 300 days per year and 30% recovery yield : 75 years potential. Not bad.If we can achieve those producton rates.

100 KB/D = 5 million tons/year, approx. 20% of local consumption potential  for 50 million Argentina+Uruguay. When they reach European standards of energy/cap.

Kingbingo's picture

It is certainly true that the UK, alongside most other western nations is in drastic need of an economic rebalance. Too much of our economy is either replaced or suppressed by an obese government, and our economy is too heavily orientated towards services, yes, including financial services.

 

But additional layers of government does not help that rebalance, so I am not sure what exactly you are trying to attack.   

magpie's picture

So, you gonna peg your Quid to the Dollar or the Yuan later on ?

Kingbingo's picture

magpie

“So, you gonna peg your Quid to the Dollar or the Yuan later on ?

 

If it were up to me it would be pegged to nothing, but backed by commodities, most likely Gold and Silver. However, as long as the world continue to all dream the same dream, and by that I mean that paper is money, then I would suspect it will be pegged to nothing but will float freely.

 

Your question implies that you feel that one of the world’s largest economies cannot properly function without a peg to currency to an even larger economy. That is a very statist view, and statism is not something I believe in, so I doubt we will find any common ground. 

WhiteNight123129's picture

As a frog, well I applaude your independence and the fact that your parliament is still somewhat functioning. Nonetheless you need to reign your dogs in London which are eviscerating the economic substance of your economy and forcing a rapid debasement of your currency, where are your Gold reserves? (Where is teh manufacturing powerhouse of the Victorian era?) and if you exit, make sure to keep some trading aggreements with the continent. As for the people on the other side of the channel, they will again have to fight against their disfuctional institutions. Our parliament and political institutions do not have this harden backbone, it will be left again to the countrmen to topple again this imposed union, from one form and another. Cheers Rosbiff (that is the nickname we use for Brits in France), no hard feelings, if your parliament and your people can make this thing go down, the frogs countrymen will be thankful for it.

Kingbingo's picture

I think it highly unlikely that the British will bring down the Euro, since the fact it is fundamentally flawed is more than sufficient to bring about its own demise without help from anyone. However, I am certain that in the event Britain will be blamed in France, much like it is currently widely accepted within France that current circumstances stem from an anglo-saxon crises and nothing to do governments that are too large and European economies that are too un competitive.

 

However, who the French media choose to blame is entirely up to them. If it creates an even deeper sense that Britain must leave the EUSSR, which appears to be the Sarkozy view, then it is useful. With the clear majority of the British population wanting us out, allies amongst the French seeking to eject us are in my view very welcome indeed.  

falak pema's picture

How can you leave something you never really joined, that you used to play divide and conquer as since centuries, and where you were US capitalism's pet poodle, surrogate corrupt City wanker, stalking horse then Trojan horse in 2008 caper?

Thatcher loved Reagan who loved the Oligarchs. They made this world what it is, and where we are today. Not a pretty place, and I'm not talking about the current Durban scandal which gets no news coverage and is the most despicable behaviour of our US overlords, polluters and climate change bounty shooters. 75% climate change is now alleged by scientists to human energy frigging, rain forest excision. No UK government has ever dared backing off from that legacy. It got the upper class rich for thirty years, it'll get the people poor for another thirty. That's democracy when you are pet poodle to good old yankee doodle. 

Drink you tea and play cricket with a stiff upper lip; if you still have your wickets. 

Kingbingo's picture

@ falak pema

You may find greater success in life if you attempt to achieve greater clarity of thought. Your post contained elements I agree with, soft prejudice and a whole number of other jumbled ideas. If you were trying to make a make an actual point you failed, instead we saw you perform the mental equivalent of soiling yourself with diarrhea. 

falak pema's picture

I don't seek what you pretend I seek. But clarity is not what glares at me, its murky reality; ever heard of it?

Using poetic licence to express free will around reality is all I seek, and you'll achieve more clarity for yourself if you want to see what's essential in this opaque world. EUro zone is not SS, whatever obscurantist clarity you may want to cling on to. 

By riccochet, John Bull UK is not nirvana land. Capische?

Kingbingo's picture

"Capische?"

 

No. 

 

I have no idea what your trying to say, sorry. 

falak pema's picture

stick to cricket then, and watch out for googly bowlers.

Archduke's picture

the same predatory United Kingdom that has already welshed on its commitments

will now attempt to tighten its sporran, pull up its kilt and flee to the bogs.

they want to break off?  fine.   but they should pay their bills first.

they are the biggest net debtor in the european mess.

Börjesson's picture

That is not quite true, gojam. Sweden have agreed to allow the 17 EZ countries to go ahead with a deeper fiscal integration if they like. Sweden has NOT agreed to join them. (Unlike Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Latvia and Lithuania, who are also non-EZ countries but decided to go along anyway. Where Denmark stands is apparently unclear at the moment.) Discussions will continue during the day, so Sweden may yet join up, but it's unlikely. In the words of the PM this morning:

"I am of course ready to discuss it with [the Swedish parliament], but if you read the text, it seems slightly odd, since the text is written entirely from the perspective of making the eurozone members submit to certain restrictions and do certain things. A non-eurozone country can't reasonably sign up for that."

gojam's picture

Very difficult to answer.

The UK would look for a free trade arrangement similar to the ones Norway and Switzerland have.

Ghordius's picture

incredibly difficult to answer

first, they would have to really want it at one of the parties (80 tory backbencher are not enough)

second, they would probably have to make a referendum - it is a thorny question

third, they would then, as you suggested, alliy with Norway & Switzerland for a similar treatment (by then, the question would rise why really bother at all, the Swiss producer/exporters comply to all EU regulations just to have access to the Single Market, so see a stronger EFTA (a good thing, IMHO)

but dear American Cousins, the thing is not that urgent - at the moment it's only posturing

gojam's picture

A referendum tomorrow would likely see 80% for withdrawal.

Ghordius's picture

you mean a cold one, without campaigns and discussion, eh?

yeah, IMHO you are right

gojam's picture

Even a 'Hot One' couldn't overturn 30 years of anti EU sentiment in the UK press.

Plus, Germany and France have targeted the UK as the fall guy. The UK know this and so do the public.

We'd be better off out.

Ghordius's picture

"Germany and France have targeted the UK as the fall guy"

I disagree,

if you really want to put it this way, then they have targeted the banks as the fall guy.

It's not about national interests directly, it's about how to approach the TBTF bank issue in Europe.

The FT has today quite a few articles where they slip and declare "Cameron went with the direct purpose of shielding the City of London from the proposed EZ banking regulations"

gojam's picture

And why should France and Germany seek to impose Eurozone banking regulations on the UK which, as you know, is not part of the Eurozone?

Does France give up it's Agricultural advantages, Will Germany give up it's Economic advantages ?

The UK is the second biggest financial contributer to the EU.

Ghordius's picture

that's the point, up to now we had EU regulations and an EZ in currency matter only - if the EZ starts with banking regulations - a Tobin Tax, for example, then you get a split between London and the Continental finance centers, and a hotter "financial war" between what is better for the EZ and what is better for the City of London.

The UK has a vote in the EU, not in the EZ. That was the whole point of Cameron's stance.

GeneMarchbanks's picture

'We'd be better off out.'

The financial sector growth is like a terminal cancer in the UK and let's not even mention the North Sea...

You bitches have genuine problems to address, EU is the least of 'em.

i be julia's picture

Tune in, turn on, and drop out.

Let's join communes or outlaw motorcycle gangs.

Fuck 'em all in the ass.

Eat me!

http://fucklloydblankfein.blogspot.com

sabra1's picture

isn't the globalist home base in the UK? there's your answer!

It is a bargin my friend's picture

You'll find the EU has left us, and we are cool with that

razorthin's picture

Right, but pump the ES anyway bichez.

Barleycorn's picture

Yes - I was equally flabbergasted when I watched risk try to rally as team von Rompuy/Barroso give their 3:30am (?!?!?) press conference...Seems to me that markets now rally when they see people's lips move...

 

But once the idiots have been parted from their money a real abyss is going to open - Look for sub 2008 lows within 3 to 6 months.