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This Is The Way The Hopium Ends: Not With A Bang, But With The Biggest Collapse In Future Consumer Expectations... Ever
The charts below demonstrate the 6 month change in the 6 month forward looking Consumer Confidence outlook: in other words, this chart measure just how deceived US consumers have been by hopium consumption 6 months ago compared to reality now. In short: 2011 has been the most disappointing year for Americans in history. Whether it is due to excess hopium consumption or not... well, it is not irrelevant.
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Terminal velocity...
This chart assumes that the next move will be waaaaaaaaaay up.
QE3?
Qe3 won't help consumer confidence.
At this rate we need another flush out of jobs as companies need to preserve profit under the cover of a shitty economy. That's what I got from ben shunning qe3 last week.
Gonna get worse
This is your brain on hopium:
http://vimeo.com/28330318
This is UNACCEPTALE!! I gave the red light about Dr Bernanke's newfound hawkishness, and cited the potential consquences with the help of Dr Paul Krugman and other top economists, but nobody listened. I hope you're happy now - my portfolio is well in the red and looks to stay there untill these right-wing meanies in congress and the Fed start taking advice from the professionals. Our Federal Reserve is FAILING to meet it's dual mandate for maximum employment and price stability with their indecisiveness.
It's clear the Fed has only one mandate:
KEEP BANKSTERS RICH!!!
Ah, the art of veiled sarcasm. Though, you should make reference to how Ben and Timmah have to go to NY to regularly "service" the likes of Jamie and Lloyd. It's part of their job description. Timmah seems to like it, though I have my questions about Ben. Ben seemed despondent during his outing at at Jackson Hole. I'm guessing he's just not enjoying the cornholing like he used to.
Is "Unaccept Ale" a pale or an IPA?
Why did you make me watch that?
I can't unsee it.
I THINK IT WILL!
QE3 & QE 4 = PM'S TO THE MOON = ME HAPPY AND EVEN MORE CONFIDENT!
D'accord
Agreed. Alright.
According to a previous article on ZeroHedge, the price of gold is very well correlated to the M2 supply. They can attempt to deny QE3, etc all they want, but M2 growth will tell everyone if QE is still going on or not. Au/Ag/Pt/Pd/Pb -- get you some!
That is what I m reading as well, especially if the retail trader and institutional traders are all stuck in bonds and other net negative return paper. Lots and lots of VC money unaccounted for here guys, where is it going to go? VC guys are always equity bulls (mainly becuase they don't stick around long nor do they give a shit about the long term fate of the company).
This chart assumes that the next move will be waaaaaaaaaay up.
Eventually. It's all a matter of timing.
sunny
On a long enough timeline . . . . .
The chart does not predict confidence will increase, rather it appears it will not decrease as fast.
if I'm reading this correctly, it showing increases at holiday or seasonal celebratory times of the year. Which doesn't mean much since sales make people happy but the margin squeeze will be even worse than last time.. OR the sales aren't as great and confidence doesn't rise as much leaving that Waaaaaaaaaaay up more like "meh". I guess we'll see, but I expect this year to be the absolute WORST christmas time in recent history.
I think you're onto something, but I see correlations in victories. Victory as percieved by the productive members of society. Examples: Carter out, hostages home = big spike. Saddam defeated (both) = spikes. Berlin wall down = spike. Welfare reform = spike.
To get out of this latest trough, I think we're going to have to whip somebody's ass REAL good. I'm going to be optimistic and hope it's the parasite classes, but that's the longest of the long shots. When that happens, best Xmas evah. Based upon the half warm "victory" in Libya, I thnk the sheep might be waking up enough to not get all ginned up over kicking over just another tin horn dictator and blowing up some cow shit huts this next time.
When the Perry drone is installed as emperor drone the consumer drones will rejoice. Victory?
probability is high, but the wild card is how many are finally realizing that the game is rigged. Enough to put an indy in office? I doubt the system could take the strain, its limited to two pre approved choices.
If enough sleepers elect him, we might get a little breath to blow the feather back into the air. For a little while it will stall the collapse. The collapse will come though, and the Red Death will "hold indomitable sway over all".
The installation of the new drone won't be until next year. So the probability of that for this year is 0. The diminishing returns of over-throwing old dictators is in full effect. I seriously doubt that overthrowing (if you can call it that) Qathafi is going to cause a stir.. oh wait. it really hasn't, has it?
Drones are all very fine, but who in the current cast of clowns will turn out to be our Emperor Palpatine?
Now we get to see if "change" picks up where "hope" leaves off.
It's not going to be pretty.
It's funny because the only "change" I've seen from Bush policies is my leftover capital each month.
Other than that things have been pretty much un"changed" in any important way. Wars still raging? Check. Invasive spying, poking and prodding of Americans? Check. Constitution used as toilet paper? Check. Uber wealthy handed more of my tax dollars whether security, military, bank bailouts or otherwise? Check.
It's a damn shame all the Repubs who supported Bush didn't complain about these policies when they completely ran the show for 4 years, but better late than never. Now if the Dumbocrat folks (people not reps) could just wean off the hopium we might be able to reform this monstrosity of an epic fail that is our government. By fail I mean of course it's failing the people, not it's puppetmaster bankers.
It just goes to show that it's only good when "your party" is in power. Any one else getting tired of this horse shit?
RON PAUL 2012
Extremely.
You have no idea how much.
I'm hoping for regime change.
If only we hadn't exported all of our freedom to Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya...
The completely interchangeable parts of the same corrupt political machine
Wait until the November Super-Committee fiasco. It will only get worse.
That shit is right up there with the Patriot Act. Nothing like having the high probability of your representative not having the op to represent your district. Furthermore.. they cherry picked those mother fuckers (as far I know) to NOT have any Tea Party reps.
My party, the toga party, is the only one that is real anywho.
District of criminals, has no true party lines, except fucked and fuckter.
Long time lurker first time poster:
The obama Hopium no longer gets the masses high. It does not matter if you smoke it, snort it, or mainline it, the high just feels like the status quo.....But cheer up....there is a new more powerful DOPE on the street! Its the new and improved hopium...thats right...ron paul Hopium is the shit! One hit and you will believe a 80 year old twerp from fucking texas will solve all ur problems! Not only will all problems be solved, but all the wars will be ended, the troops all over the world will come home, the drug war will be ended, and he will shut down the fed too!
If you believe this man is electable, keep smoking the hope. If you believe this man will end the fed, the wars, the drug war....then snort more hope. If you believe any of our problems can be solved thru electoral politics then roll up ur sleave and shoot some more hope.
You forgot, Obama gave you free medical insurance. At least, he is charging you for it. The actual insurance will come along in 3 or 4 years.
I just saw a survey that said 1 in 4 Democrats are screaming for someone to challenge Obummer. Mike Gravel said if he could get $1M in donations, he'd give it a try. We'll see. But I just don't see a lot of D's & I's crossing over for a Romney, Perry or Bachmann. They'll stick with Obummer before they vote for some corrupt theocrat neo-cons.
They will cross-over for Ron Paul though, and many are. An article on 7/7/11 by a British ex-pat named Robin Koerner in the HuffPo started something. He entreated anti-war, disenchanted Dems & Inds to go "Blue Republican" just for a year. Someone ran with the idea and moniker - slapped up a Facebook page, kick-ass t-shirts, yard signs, slim jims, and they've got 4,000 members and growing. The article's been shared over 14K times. Koerner's been on TV, radio, and is fixing to go on a speaking tour. Ron Paul could win this.
Ron Paul will never get a Democratic vote as long as he runs as a Republican. If he loses the nomination he MUST run as an Independent candidate. The we could call him President.
Equivalent of third term for George W. Bush? Check.
It doesn't seem to matter....
Did you buy the dip, the market sank for a whole 5 minutes. This is extremely bullish. (sac)
Markets now higher than when this number was announced. Wtf?
Of course not. The DJIA holds up on QE3 expectations, but when the QE3 isn't announced, the points aren't shed again.
Phony markets R us.
Yup! Lookin at it 3+ years into The Greater Depression the past sux, the present sux AND the future sux!
Hat trick!
Aah poo! Reduce your exposure, eat some fish eggs, enjoy the ride.
When on Hopium bad news is good news. QE3 ramp continue after this brief intermission.
Of course, previous experieince tells us that QE 3 will benefit about 10% of the population in the form of paper-based capital gains... before it quickly fades.
On the other hand, we all get to guess where the next 3rd world revolution will occur as inflation in the basic necessities of life will come back with a vengance.
In the meantime, things still cost more... but my wages... they don't go up.
When trying hopium, I smoked it, snorted it and injected it.
Nothing worked, until I used as an enema. It flushed me out, but good. Now I can't make it stop. BEnny suggusts using his biggest and last tool to plug the flow. But, that has never worked in the past. Doctors no longer recommend QE3 for anal leakage.
And watch the 'market' go green on such brilliantly bad news
Haven't done the analysis yet, but I bet that such large declines into sub-50 territory are associated with abnormally large future gains in stocks.
All all the Fed's meddling got this? And they want to meddle even more?
Riots and revolution cometh
Riots and revolution cometh
I think they want that. I really think that is part of the plan. They can't really believe that if they keep the stock market up then people will feel better. Surely they aren't that stupid.
I agree, those who don't feel better about the market melt up will be encouraged to pour into the streets and self identify for future termination.
No one with influence is rioting or rebelling as long as 401(k)s and social security are intact. It will take threatening the wealth of an influential leader before we are led to fight, unless TD is donning battle gear . . . I'd follow him in Maltovcocktailville (tm)--suck on the that Buffett (Jimmy and Warren)!
Don't forget that the youth don't have 401ks or SS or "wealth" and are in debt without jobs.
As long as they have video games and their parents will subsidize their living costs, they won't do shit. They don't even have the energy to get off the couch.
Yardstick of civilization: congratulations on the avatar and the user name--a fully realized concept.
Thanks brother.
I'm not sure. They really could be that stupid. History tells us the same mistakes are made over and over again. Every generation thinks their smarter than the last. With Baby Boomers, this is more so.
However, I still don't ignore the possibility of a larger plan at work.
we don't repeat our parent's mistakes: we repeat our grandparents' mistakes
Oh why did I buy into hope?
I guess that it helped me to cope
Even though I'm depressed
I still should have guessed
I was just being played for a dope
Poetry at its best
... and then some:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU
Great! Just great! Thanks for the limericks.
There once was a man named Bernanke
Who led economic hanky panky
The markets collapsed
Though more QEs passed
And he still asked "Who's going to thank me?"
after the /es reacted to the consumer confidence print. it has now "floated" up more than half of the loss, on decreasing non-existent volume.
if there were actual investors in this market, they would sell hell out of the no volume float. ps, i'm aware that some of the float up is shorts cashing out.
Ah...what's the worrry...this is all "transitory" anyhow!
On a long enough timeline, etc.
Looks like manic-depression to me. QE3 means lithium for everyone!
Hey look low volume. What happens on low volume days at the end of a month? All together now, "Machines Ramp Stocks Up"
It just doesn't matter!
Repeat.
I disagree. I think forward expectations does matter to things like new car sales and, more importantly, housing. If people are anxious and depressed about their future prospects it seems likely they will postpone big purchases in the immediate future. It's the opposite of "animal spirits".
Sorry old Bill Murray reference. Sarcasm. Your assessment is on point.
see: http://tinyurl.com/4mttgmq
Financial Collapse ? Dude - Labor Day weekend is upon us - time to get naked and hit the River! PARTY, PARTY!
Wall st. needs bad confidence and Oblamo needs good confidence.. interesting dynamic. At this point I suspect another round of printing will only make peoples confidence in this shit show worse.
So what happens to the S & P 500 when things actually get better?
EUR still up on the day.
AUD still up on the day.
And its "End of Month Markup"
Wouldn't want to be short right now.
NASDAQ up like 9.3% in week? My guess it at will be halved before the end of THIS week.
The Euro is down sharply on the day.
Which is why equities are.
The conservative ES target for EOD/EOM tomorrow at 4pm is 1227.
To the moon, Alice . . . way Beyond Thunderdome. To infinity, actually! Yes, Goldman and the Fed discovered infinity!
Its not getting better Robo, thats the huge puzzle piece you ust cant see. What do you expect, pink unicorns to appear suddenly over glitter rainbows?
'Wouldnt want to be short right now'....well retardo thats what you said at 12,700 recently so your opinion is worthless.
Probably because you have been long since Dow 12,700 Robo...
We are now higher than before consumer confidence. Well done machines. Well Done. another $100 million day for Goldman
contra move....consumers spend then say they didn't...
'Consumer' CONfidence? looks like more people are tiring of the con game. For the unaware trolls:
Nasdaq green in 10 minutes.....go
Me no think so, let Europe close
good call, my time zone skills are crap, but it did go green.
Why wont anyone other than Steve Liesman give the Bernank the credit he deserves, the market is up after his brilliant Jackson Hole speech.
We are all gonna be just fine cause we have THE expert on the great depression to save us.
Shitty thing is I am short.
Pulte Homes up 9%
Homebuilders led the recent decline, now they are leading the rebound.
It's also a penny stock, who cares? Do they even build anymore or just play accounting games w tax credits
Robos penny stock is up, yippee.
I'll see your Pulte and raise you ANX.TO
So you're long Countrywide?
Will this make the average consumer wake up? Hardly.
The opium is flowing from TV. Where once there was boxing, then WWE, now UFC.
Bread and circuses with a healthy dollop of blood (at least someone is suffering) and HD will ensure the masses stay complicit, compliant and docile.
moo!
V
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/08/30/humor-me/
This market is so fucked that if they dropped a nuke on New York it would rally. It would probably be read as stimulative.
Then it will be judged to not have been as bad as expected, ala Irene, and then they'll jack the mothrfucker up on that for good measure.
Trailing indicator. It's down because of the market plunge and the disgust with all things political, in the wake of the debt ceiling charade.
If someone/something gooses the markets, it will reverse.
I agree that it's partly in response to the debt ceiling conflict, but not for the reasons you imply. It wasn't the debt ceiling debate per se, but rather that the can was kicked down the road once again. I think it is settling into the collective consciousness that our current system is unsustainable and that our political leaders will do nothing to change course until the whole thing collapses. That (in my opinion) is what is driving the depression in confidence.
The market will be gooseable, until it isn't. Remember, your trailing indicator this, leading indicator that, are merely movements of a Ponzi scheme. Physical gold is the only leading indicator that matters when the 'shell game' ends..
So i guess this means Russell 2000 will rise 5% also today.
Too many aging Boomer Doomers skewing the numbers...
ah, have you not seen the numbers? all those american kids who waited until their late twenties/early thirties to have children are starting to have them...the new baby boom has begun...the demographers wring their hands about the lack of births but they ignore that babies are not a straight line up but more like those bumps in a snake...on and off, off and on....this is why when they talk about declining birth rates they are wrong....this is the first time in history that people have waited so long to have children; longer educational times, women working, and self-indulgence all added up to delay in having children. however, we are clearly on path for a big baby boom...invest now!
Too bad they're all still unemployed, 9th year, 2nd masters seeking "students" living with their fucking hippy boomer parents. You know the parents, the ones that insisted that their own kids call them by their first names instead of Mom or Dad.
Start eyeballing nursing homes in Botswana, that's what will be affordable before the peter pan generations start contributing.
Another Boomer generation?
The Ponzi can reboot!
You are such a moron. Do you think so many kids would be living at home or in school for another worthless overpriced Master's if there were fucking jobs for them? Dur hur, guess you didn't think about the long-term consequences when your snout was deep in short-term gain.
Have a very strange feeling in my gut, this is not good at all, machines do what they are programmed to do, I sense programmers have no clue anymore then I or you have!
My GUESS is that we'll have a massive selloff before any QE or somethign else will hit the "markets"! Very confusing out there right now, am more afraid of an idiot with a plan then a genius without one!
Algos need to pull in the bonuses, after that, I don't know...!
And...Gold is $42 and change, USD is...74 and change?!?! Strange times will bear strange outcomes!
The algos are actually just programmed to make sure Goldman and Wall Street get their bonuses. They have free reign over the universe and many tools at their disposal. The stock market happens to be the easy kill at this point. Soon, Terminators.
Pleeeeeze. THEY know what they are doing.
Indeed. Strange is the operative word.
Who is going to address Irene and no flood insurance?
What are all theses people going to do?
Give their houses back to the banks. So what?
Didn't you hear? Hurricanes are good for the economy. Forget the billions in losses. All those wrecked houses mean people have to spend money!
They spent 15 billion on credit cards already. Credit is maxed out. I'm sorry but this
is the big story and the states aren'y helping them.
Overthrow the Fed!
MEMO: NSA Google Data Mining Operation
TO: FBI/DOJ
SUBJECT: Domestic Terrorism
Another batch of Zero Hedge commenters reaffirming our statistical data analysis of the domestic terror linguistic trend amongst this blogger segment of society.
Request maintaining this group on Terror Watch List and No Fly List. TSA Grope-a-Dope at your discretion.
Regards, Surveillance Division, NSA.
FBI/DOJ has us all tagged and grounded.
Uber Bearishness...watch out for the good old switcharooooo!!!
BULL Bitchez
QQQ and XRT are still outperforming the SPY, confirming the bullish bias at the moment.
http://www.wallstreetbear.com/board/view.php?topic=86569&post=310776
actually it indicates the weak shorts are bailing to me.
Real World Economic Indicators: The Coffee index. I bought two cans of coffee from a man who had a whole pallet for sale on the side of the road,he had bought on his SNAP CARD. He was selling them for 8 bucks a can cash no questions asked. Never underestimate the American spirit of resourcefulness.
The Safeway just down the street is currently selling the large can of Folgers Breakfast Blend for $6, no questions asked and I can use my debit card :)
Folgers...
Burnt sawdust in a can is the key to cheap inputs and lower prices...
If one is not grinding his or her own beans and using a french press, then one is not enjoying good coffee.
The K-Cups come close, but anything else pre-ground is nasty.
.02$
+1 for .02$
Yeah but we can make $6 a can counterfeiting Folgers with, with... burnt sawdust!
Burnt sawdust, man...
And yet markets have not fallen much. And this against yesterday's volumeless faux rally!
WTF is going on?!?!?!?!
WTF is going on you ask.
Michael Vick is about to sign a $100 million contract, that's WTF is going on.
http://philly.sbnation.com/philadelphia-eagles/2011/8/30/2393263/was-mic...
From Dog fighting impresario to hero
only in America
i can't even pretend an interest.
I'd watch if it was going to be Vick vs. 4 pissed off pit bulls instead of football.
WTF going on? W T F GOING ON?!?!?!?!!!!
Well, looks like no sellers. that's the reason of the ramp up on low volume?
Wait until 2:00pm FOMC minutes: the OT leak will have us on the way to a good 1% gain.
Naw brah, just gotta get me to print a few more tril, it'll all be good. Trust me, this time it will be different.
Borg Queen to Jean-Luc Picard: "Watch your futures end...."
Tyler, it's at this point that you can now tell the world, "I told you so..."
Oh hell yes he can.
That moment came years ago and they still won't listen. Trolls, the lot of them!
REALITY METATAG BITCHEZ!
Bernanke won't drop any money on Main Street even though he's been dumping trillions on Wall Street. What do you expect?
God damned hopium. Just like crack. The dealers start out giving it to you for free. Then once you’re hooked they start jacking up the price.
CREEP -- Committee to RE-Elect the President
Now if I were a "brilliant" politician... that would be change I could run on in 2012...
Fire up that teleprompter... Obama Bin Lyin' is on a roll...
Obviously (tongue-in-cheek), just looking at the stock market this morning, consumers are irrelevant! We have Fed PRINTED prosperity now!
seems like there's a catch-22 going on with the markets...with each additional puzzle piece of bad news indicating recession the market takes it as indication that QE3 is more and more a sure thing...so the market goes up....Bernanke sees the market going up....therefore no need to actually do QE3....how long is this going to work?
I've been registered with ZH 1 year 38 weeks and reading since before March 2009.
Perhaps my memory is faulty, but hasn't SPX doubled since March 2009, while ZH continued to post permabearish points?
Just curious
And please correct me if I am wrong, but haven't previous lows in consumer sentiment been buying ops?
Just sayin'
Your memory fails to remind you that when priced in non dilutable currencies (such as gold), the value of your SPX investment has declined since 2009, and hence the purchasing power of your investment, and your overall wealth has declined.
(Gold doubled too for an SPX/Gold standoff)
And AAPL, NFLX, PCLN et al went up five to ten times
And how about the other 90% of the stock market that did not even double?
Too bad Joe
For some people the glass is always half empty
You can hold the gold you own in your hand. Any AAPL, NFLX, and PCLN you think you own is being held for your "benefit" by Cede & Co.
As long as things hold together, you'll be fine. In a SHTF scenario, though, I can't imagine Cede & Co. taking the effort to get your stock certificates to you. If they do, even if by pack mule or pony express, I'll eat my gold.
Good point
And gold can be stolen
No one should mess with Ty D.
A man who helped set the slaves free
You question his wits
He'll cut you to bits
Made a fool for the whole world to see
When can we get a worldwide ban on HFT? Man this market sucks again.
Algos are written by people who work with technical analysis, my gut says the algos will buy any dip before a kiss of the 200 day moving average. Bernank knows all the authors, but he must know now that the consumer, even after 6 months of fairy dollars, isn't buying his shit.