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We Have A Deal!
We just may have a deal:
- EU OFFICIAL SAYS DEAL REACHED ON GREEK DEBT-CUTTING PLAN: AP
- 'PRIVATE CREDITORS TO TAKE 50% CUT ON GREEK BONDS, AP SAYS
- EU official, who wished to remain anonymous, tells Bloomberg that euro-area leaders are set to approve accord for 50% writedown on Greek bonds
If true, this means that Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy will promptly commence sabotaging their economies (just like Greece) simply to get the same debt Blue Light special as Greece. It also means that, at least according to Barclays, we have a CDS credit event, although we are certain that Europe would never announce this deal unless ISDA (complete determinations committee list here) was onboard, and corrupt as always. In addition, Greece was unable to generate a 90% acceptance for a 21% haircut tender offer. And we are somehow supposed to believe they can do it with 50%? Lastly, as a reminder, on September 14, Moody's put SocGen, BNP and Credit Agricole on downgrade review. This will be the trigger
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I wish I could be entitled to a maximum of 50% loss under any circumstance. Can you imagine buying a car, and a house, going bankrupt and getting half of your money back?!
Great deal if you can get it, lulz.
3.30am in GMT +1
Check that AP isn't firing off a rumour - in the biz, people refuse to run with their wires (Reuters they do) due to the amount of noise / pull back.
I thought 65% cut was necessary, no?
Unless IMF and other and other multilateral agreements are also subject to haircuts isn't this just a tad bit of bull shit?
no haricuts on Troika and ECB holdings, just private banks. Thats the deal accepted by IIF and Eurozone.
the euro loves it; our sht dollar is worthless
Bernake told them the helecopter was in the shop, so if they needed to make a move, now was the time.
Two questions; does PRIVATE CREDITORS mean only individual investors while banks and countries are not affected? Who makes the call of whether this is a CDS credit event?
Wasn't it just a week or so ago that a 50% haircut on Greek bonds would cause the entire financial world to implode? Now the actual deal of a 50% haircut is going to cause the market to rally all the way to Imagination Land.
I really don't get it. The market tanked on the worry that banks would be forced to take writedowns on Greek debt. How can they really have it both ways. Greece doesn't default and the market rockets to the moon, Greece defaults and the market rockets to the moon.
As I said before the line connecting the stock market to reality has been severed long ago. The world is a stinking garbage skiff and the equity tugboat is riding off past the horizon without even looking to see if the cargo is still there.
At this rate the fuckers who have destroyed the world will die of old age before their party ends. That after all was the plan all along. They'll get to die happy after long lines of hookers and blow while anyone under the age of 50 will need a shotgun and a lot of luck to make it further than five years after the last boomer dies.
I think you are onto something. Bloomberg asia is reporting at 03:30 GMT that the meetings are just ending. That is way after last call.
But the kicker and I am not joking is that Greece is now going to have to submit to "permanent" fiscal supervision. How is that different to the the last 12 months? And exactly who is going to "permanetly" supervise them. The same people making global decisions at 03:00?
You believe in the preachings of the Savonarola of Euro death. Its still got legs...
Btw : Robo trader must be laughing at all those eurodoomers who played big short on Euro. The Euro is up as will be WS bigtime for the next few days. Doesn't mean we are not on a roller coaster all through the coming year(s).
Sorry if some guys lost their biscuits by playing 'dealbreaker' scenario in Europe and put their shorted Euro $ money on FX in step with their mouths here on ZH. I don't day trade; so its more academic my fascination in this shooting match.
Ladies and gentlemen, the term "moral hazard" has just been taken to a terrifying new level.
I am truly scared for our future.
What future?
Good point
How so?
He meant Futures
there is nothing moral about this hazard
Merkel must die.
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merkelmerkelmerkelmerkelmerkelmerkelmerkelmerkelmerkelmerkelmerkelmerkel
MERKEL
Half a haircut makes anyone look like a retard.
Lots of kids these days look like they insulted the barber/hairdresser bigtime.
The future is dark if the mohawked retards ever get into social policy making.
All they are doing is tying everything together so when TSHTF we ALL go down, much to the central banksters delight. BTW is anyone selling futures on gas masks?
Have a feeling when i wake up in a few hours for the am this news will have been sold. Lets see...
Watch the CME double margin req tomorrow as commodities skyrocket.
We need some deets. No way would these goddamn bankers walk away from 50% of their "principal."
So, Europe cannotpay it's debt - and it's currency rallies!
It's Magic !
Its the new bama math.
Did I miss something? I thought the Nazi's LOST the war... oh well I guess I'll just chalk that up to another one the old history text books got wrong.
wake up call for rip van winkle, after 65 year slumber.
bend and snap
.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYkawsbgNl4
.
see you try
So, American can now also call their creditors and ask for 50% forgiveness. Someone ask Obama to campaign on this (2 ipads for the price of 1!), especially if somehow the banks are kept whole.
....Xactly...
How about if we split the difference? Stinky and his globalist friends get to play with $600 bil a year (reelection funds) and America keeps the other $600 bil for rebuilding after the epic fail?
Seems fair.
50-50 seems to be all the vogue so no doubt the former soviet and Cuban/north Korean expansionist will want to be popular and do the right thing eh?
They could go for it as a face saving measure.
"The capitalist pigs have agreed to submit to an enormous penalty in the name of human justice"!
Dear leaders insistence that "we will not wait" has paid benefits that promise to insure the continuation of the peoples rule within the republic of ??????
Together we must stand tall and catastrophically narcissistic as one in victory against those who oppose the justice assured by ....
OH SHIT!!
THE FUCKING TELEPROMPTER!!
WTF??
Shut him down!! I repeat, shut him down.
Alpha one.. We have a break..doo-doo is still audible and T is down! I repeat, T is down.
KILL AUDIO IMMEDIATELY.
Jeezes Christ that was close.
Imagine if he had babbled on further?
"I can't keep doing this"." I can't even look people not on the team in the eye anymore".
"Just deal with it". " We have all been where you are before".
"All", "Do you mean all that are left"?
"Dangerous smartguy".
"You know better".
"I'm personally sorry, however I must report you".
"If I do not, it will be my family"
"love ya bro and yet I can't be an angel in a world full of devils"
Gotta belong to survive.
Of course a 50% slice is a default. And a bad one. It SHOULD set off the D bomb, but maybe they have acted in concert to prevent it.
This appears to be a rumor being floated to test the market. Very dangerous though, unforseen events could now take control.
I can't believe the banks are accepting a 50 percent haircut. I had no idea they could survive such an event.
The ECB better start ramping up its printing machine. This is gonna take a lot of paper.
http://geraldcelente.proboards.com
When you own the policy makers and the printing press, you can survive any haircut.
Some might think the Bundestag will sink this one.
Or will it be some obscure rule in ECB charter?
Or some little half-assed slavic political faction?
My bet it will TIMMEH! will be afraid to ask Congress for more IMF funds.
I know the reporting is terrible on all of this...but...
The Bloomberg anchor used the phrase "The bond holders agreed..."
That is the loophole for it to NOT be a default.
In Bankruptcy court, creditors do the same. It's a default.
Good for the relic?
Question: If AP report is validated in tomorrow's sunrise,
US Markets Up?
US Markets Down?
Euro Up?
Dollar Up?
Looking for themes/beliefs of this ZH group.
And you are correct, I don't have a clue.
Got me some nice puts today, will double down tomorrow! 1250-1275 ish is the new upper trading range folks!
Rest is noise and Greece can kiss my ass, bancheros as well!!!
Unrelated...but Business Insider reports that Australian stock market was shut down several hours ago and remains down.
anyone who buys a cds that allows for a 50% haircut that can be defined as something other than a triggering default is a dumbass
huh
Thank you for common sense...
Hard to find.
so, okay - how is this good?
well, it's not all bad....
What I would like to know is: If it is an "event", then who is going to have to pay?
apparently, US Taxpayer via the IMF.
If you recall, unknown faces will appear before your eyes. Here is one, the other handful will be reported when necessary.
Nicolas Berggruen
http://berggruen.org/
sark - efsf will be leveraged 5x
haircut for banks voluntary
scum
Robo - you understate the moonshot that tomorrow will be
we have been advised
Nah the Irish will do what they are told - we are the best euro boys in the class don't you know ?
Same as dropping five zeroes off your trillion Mark note.
Equador basically got a very similar
type write-down on their debts about
3 years ago if I remember correctly
why would the ISDA declare it a credit event when their members are the CDS writers?
Recent data from the BIS suggests U.S. banks have $41B inexposure to Greece, mostly in the form of CDS contracts sold to European banks who own Greek paper.
good point but this is only the first degree. By not declaring a credit event, they will screw some of their direct counterparties in other area and this could boomerang back to them in the face.
Unless the banks have their dirty hands in the EFSF and are guaranteed wholeness (or better) smells like BS.
So ES up 200???? Dow up 1000????
It all makes perfect sense
Futures are barely ticking up.... Yawn
Wait, are the Greeks actually going to:
(A) Work, and
(B) Pay taxes
to repay their debts less the 50%?
I don't see that happening. Therefore, this deal is good and truly done already.
Maybe G-Pap will quietly hand over their gold.
And maybe a few more islands.
As a token of his appreciation for the funds provided to his country by US taxpayers (via the criminal IMF) Pap Smear has agreed to cede the entire Greek coastline to the citizens of America.
So if it ruled NOT a default. What happens to the bond buyers that bought CDS as insurance?
ECB: "About that insurance policy you THOUGHT you bought...ooopsy."
they levered the ponzi bitches - why do they need chinese money?
Sarkozy: Bailout fund will be $1.4T Euros.
Who exactly will be on the hook? Their credit ratings are about to go down a few notches.
what a shambles can't even get a webcast that works
webcast crash bitches
/ES...rocket up along w/ /CL woo hoo... rally on! All problems solved!!!!
<sarcarsm off>
If this is true, how the fuck are they going to pay back the remaining 50%? Doesn't Greece still owe too much?
And the banks? They are not taking any losses now. Just the private investors. How the hell is that going to work?
I don't blame you to think that banks are not private anymore.
Stocks up every day forever now. Even Saturdays and Sunday.
what a great shiit, everything is up except US($SHIT)
Look for the stock market rally to end at the neckline on the attached chart that we predicted back on October 4, 2011.
Neckline is around 1275 on ES (E-mini S&P 500)
http://www.bostonwealth.net/2011/10/24/catching-over-100-es-point-rally/
dude, if you really new where the stock market rally was going to end or not you wouildn't be telling the rest of us
Wow, yer really smart.... Draw me a chart of the past, line it up to look really purdy....
Can you manage my money? How do I send you all that I have?
October 24, 2011 – ROME – The Vatican called on Monday for the establishment of a “global public authority” and a “central world bank” to rule over financial institutions that have become outdated and often ineffective in dealing fairly with crises. The document from the Vatican’s Justice and Peace department should please the “Occupy Wall Street” demonstrators and similar movements around the world who have protested against the economic downturn. “Towards Reforming the International Financial and Monetary Systems in the Context of a Global Public Authority,” was at times very specific, calling, for example, for taxation measures on financial transactions. “The economic and financial crisis which the world is going through calls everyone, individuals and peoples, to examine in depth the principles and the cultural and moral values at the basis of social coexistence,” it said. It condemned what it called “the idolatry of the market” as well as a “neo-liberal thinking” that it said looked exclusively at technical solutions to economic problems. “In fact, the crisis has revealed behaviours like selfishness, collective greed and hoarding of goods on a great scale,” it said, adding that world economics needed an “ethic of solidarity” among rich and poor nations. “If no solutions are found to the various forms of injustice, the negative effects that will follow on the social, political and economic level will be destined to create a climate of growing hostility and even violence, and ultimately undermine the very foundations of democratic institutions, even the ones considered most solid,” it said. It called for the establishment of “a supranational authority” with worldwide scope and “universal jurisdiction” to guide economic policies and decisions. –Reuters
The Puritans were right after all. The Pope IS the Anti-Christ. Bernanke is merely Beelzebub.
For once the Pope makes sense and the Puritans are 'out popeing' the Pope in their rabid, 'we are the new Jerusalem', ideology. US based puritanism, as expressed in the current world pseudo market, total oligarchical construct, stinks; just like the Pope's theocracy and Inquistion stank then.
And Bernanke, he doesn't work for the Pope, he works for the Oligarchy. The Pope is his current posture speaks for the people.
Hey! Is any of you a member of the Roman Catholic Church?
If no, why do you listen to the pope?
He is just repeating stuff the Vatican is saying since 1922 - there are a dozen encyclicas about it - nothing new, nothing that has not been "branded" by your "puritans" as "leftist" and "populist" since nearly 100 years. YAWN.
He is a political figure. I'm not a catholic. But what he says influences 2 billion minds. That more than Obama or Chairman chin chiao chang. Ok? Does that make sense for commenting his comments?
If you don't like political debate go yawn in ya bed.
Poliics runs thicker than "Law". Law is the last recourse of those oppressed by politics. However Law must have teeth in order to be anything more than just a soap box. There are times when Law is rendered toothless and castrated. These are beginning to look like those times. 47% of Americans admit to owning guns. Lotsa Luck.
It is the Euro version of the GM deal.
Assume 50% haircut and CDs not triggered. You don't get paid your insurance.
Guess what happens to interest rates: to the fucking moon. Mark my words here ladies and gentlemen. Investors will immediately digest the fact their insurance wrappers are worthless. Ergo, investors are going to want more yield -- a lot more yield -- before swallowing sovereign debt without a condom.
Investors are caught in the financial ponzi, the world economy is now totally bearish as drowned in debt. So what is important is to make sure that the whole capitalist shooting match doesn't collapse! That's where we are, its the investment culture, mindset, that now has to change : go from short term destructive mayhem looking for fiat profits, that burn your fiat riches at same time, to a more risk avertive lower yield over the medium term type investment.
High interest rates when ZIrp rules is BS. High interest rates when the world drowns in debt, is death of financial-economic system. Its this VITAL lesson that the investor has to learn. Pronto.
Also taking more risky bets in energy paradigm and new tech innovation/new market development models necessary to MOVE the world economy to a new sustainable watershed.
so WHy are us equitiy futures up on this news. seems like the start of shitstorm.
Someone shut Sarkozy up, he has lost his mind! "There will be no Greek default"
Europe is Madoff x 100,000
Can't wait to see the unintended consequences of this moral hazard.
EU balance sheet debt to GDP exceeds 100% and unfunded liabilities to GDP is 400% of GDP; about the same as the US. Both areas have mature, zero growth economies and entitlments that were promised when growth was 4% per year. So the EU and the US extends and pretends for another year and debt increases another $3 trillion.
So do countries like Finland and Slovakia vote again on the EFSF increasing by 5x?
No votes to kill it yet?
Didn't Tyler (or one of the guest posters) point out that any Greek haircut under 60% would accomplish nothing?
Edit: Never mind, was confirmed in the stickied thread.
Some Banks are going to be going bye bye. A 5 % loss is bad enough to send banks into distress but 50%!!
"Some Banks are going to be going bye bye."
Mark to model in to save the day!
Just model that you are going to hold them twice as long now and then they'll be worth, uhhh, uhhh. Hey, look over there! Protestors!
Mark to market is sooooo 2007.
Futures up a little over 1/2%. Thought we would be up 500 DOW points. Sell the news? Maybe.
So the problem was nobody was buying the bonds. So you increase the number of bonds you sell...to...buy...more...bonds???
BRILLIANT!!!
Queue gold takedown because "everything is fixed".
And to the motherfuckers who decided to send me dreams last night.
Get a body. Get a gun. Come talk to me.
Fill your hands with the motherfucking guns you piece of shit.
Sequitur, You are correct sir, when you take away the CDS insurance, higher interest becomes
the insurance. All sovereign debt interest rates will immediately rise sharply and Europe's debt
problems will go from bad to worse.
This is only the first step in the grand euro plan, the following steps being :
1° New financial regulation world wide presented at G20 in November. Interdiction of naked derivative plays and taxation of financial transactions in eurozone. Move to Gl-St type regulation. The core problem is destroying the current financialized economy. As the USA/WS Oligarchical clique won't do it Euro zone has to take the lead with Russia/China/Brazil backing.
2° As the markets are fuked and debt deleveraging is the big issue in first world, we will see a strategy to cut government spending drastically in eurozone and redeploy money to infrastructure new technology sectors to stimulate growth big time. Big painful period of government sector adjustment in perspective. The USA has same problem at an even bigger level.
3° To prevent debt induced liquidity contagion in PIGS, the Euro zone will TRY to decouple with the current financial market and set up alternative lending institutions to bring down bond interest rates to lower levels over the medium term.
Can this ambitious scheme of financial engineering architecture work, to short circuit current debt slavery ponzi hold leveraged by financials based in WS and City, aka diminish the hold of anglo-saxon finance by creating an alternative Euro/Bric financial model, time will tell. To make it work Merkel and Sarkozy as the heads of the two main euro economies have to be the icons of future euro rapprochement and federation. Its a ten year deal to this type of paradigm change.
Further down the road, if this paradigm change becomes operational, in geo-political terms this spells the end of Pax Americana age and of God $, Mammon of the current globalized, debt slavery financial model! It also spells the rise of Pacific rim/SE ASia economy and Southern hemisphere countries in balance of global power equation.
What will be the reaction of US Oligarchs to this power play by Euro Zone? Big question mark!
We are in any case, one way or the other, in tipping moment of western and world civilization history.
The question now for Sarkozy is : How do you generate growth while cutting expenditure in a probable zero growth scenario and NOT lose your triple A?
If France loses triple A in february, then this whole deal goes mega fragile. We are not out of the woods in Euro zone. The short term is a real killer!
We are still in the possibilty that this could be a "Munich" type moment for the Euro construct, if the short term conjecture buckles under.
So then why is it even called a MARKET if every possible combination of deal/no deal, haircut/no haircut, cds/no cds sparks a rally?
Any possible thing that can happen in any direction whatsoever sparks a rally.
It's not a market, it's a giant tissue with numbers on it that central bankers jerk off into.
who are private creditors?
And gold is up only a buck?
Clever Europeans! They're pretending not to bail the banks!
But watch as next the ECB takes the Greek bonds on the balance sheet and pumps liquidity into the banks.
They now have some political cover against the OWS rage.
Well....whether it is was a 21% haircut or 50% both are trigger events. At 21%, Greece continues to blow up (at 50% Greece just blows up a bit slower as debt just spirals out of control again but on a longer time horizon). So at 21% Greece would simply continue to drain funds from the EFSF at precisely the time it can't afford it now that the ECB can't buy bonds in the secondary market or buy bonds from EFSF since the German Parliment just put those terms online as they just passed the vote. And since Italy and Spain needs bonds bought to keep their bonds from blowing out the EFSF would have simply been out of money faster than fast had the 21% haircut gone through anyway.
So, with a 50% haircut, we know Germany still isn't going to backstop other sovereign banks aside from their normal commitment to the EFSF. Which means the stress on French, Italian, Spanish, and yes, even Germany's balance sheet will go vertical....with said downgrades via S + P, Moody's etc. Which means funding costs go up and the economy spins down the proverbial drain.
That is the scenario IF there isn't a white knight out there? Perhaps this is where the China rumors keep coming in...if they helped recap the banks, therefore helping the sovereigns, and therefore EU credit ratings, while China gets a 25% bond insurance on liquidiy injections.....then you have something brewing here.
Some say China can't afford it, but they do have 2 trillion in surplus, and if you assumed they needed all that to fund their SPV banks, then they still have an excess 2 trillion in U.S. treasuries that they said they beleived was above and beyond what they needed. Would be interesting, and could explain why beyond short covering the EUR/USD has been going higher in the face of all apparent fundamentals. If this were to happen, and China did this to continue to strategically set themselves up as the next world reserve currency....then you have what they say in the business a very interesting development. Were this to play out, it won't be the demise of Europe that everyone has been focused on....
It'll be good bye America as we know it. If there is no white knight, then it's still game over, as the dominos begin to fall.
In other words, the situation is pretty fucked no matter what angle you slice the pie. The HP-12c as we know it malfunctioned a long time ago.
You call it a blue light special, but the whole package will be a bad one for Greece. They have to make it that way in order that other countries not follow Greece. It will sink Greece further into a depression. If Greece did not have such politicians who are hellbent on carrying out Merkel's orders, they could have just defaulted 2 years ago. Their projected debt in one million years (I don't remember exactly but more than 10 years I think) it is hoped will reach the level it was 2 years ago. During the last 2 years they have been ruining their economy and accumulating further debt to pay off the interest of an original debt that they couldn't pay off anyway. Who would want to be Greece?
Ok, so say I am an investor who bought greek debt. I made no such arrangement to receive a 50% haircut on my bonds. Is greece now aloud to not pay me 50% of interest and principal and not call it a default?
The US debt is now 7 trillion? party on dudes!
According to Wikipedia, Greece has $350 billion in public debt. How much of that is going to be forgave? I doubt it will be half of that. If it is anywhere near $100 billion, then politicians are making a deal in which the banks may have to be bailed out immediately.
I'm looking forward to the details and the fallout. It seems like the DOW will jump over 12,000 and then come crashing down as the details are released and the consequences are understood.
One thing is clear, this sets a precedent for Portugal, Spain, and Italy. They are going to demand the same deal. I would imagine these countries will be a wee bit prickly when negotiations begin for their bailout packages.
At some point the banks and the derivatives are going to blow up. It's just a matter of when. Thus, we are in a countdown. Most people refuse to look at the US and European economies with such a negative/pessimistic viewpoint. Thus, until the meltdown actually begins in earnest, the rose-colored glasses crowd will remain the majority.
Did anyone see the interview on Bloomberg with chief equity advisor for S&P today. He sounded like it was 1994 all over again, and stocks were ready to take off. What do these guy read that I am missing? The global economy is treading water with growth issues in nearly every country. Exactly what signs point to this changing?
The only conclusion that any informed investor can come to is buy gold and wait, and lots of it. It's time to be very cautious and defensive. And the ultimate defense is gold.
www.goldsilverdata.com
Greece isn't the issue now- they're done, 50% is just the first step to 90%-
Next up- Italy, who must be shoveling it deep and hard right now- no more hiding behind Greece.
And so it begins- unavoidable contagion....
Do the tax payers have to buy their own vaeline or will it be provided to them?
Do the tax payers have to buy their own vaseline or will it be provided to them?
This deal isn't good. Who wins? Stock market is going to go up due to psychology/relief, but everyone loses. Greece appears to be the big winner, and Italy is next in line to win. US stockholders? Uh. No. Europe possibly just purchased a depression.
It's not that I am a bear and hate stocks. I'm ready to buy as soon as officials act responsibily and the market corrects to let reasonable long-term investors in at fair value. The current valuations are asinine given the US/Chinese/European slowdowns. Earnings are just going to get worse next quarter.
There really are only two options no matter how the slice and dice things. Take massive hair cuts now or print massive amounts of Euro until it becomes worthless. Simple maths.
Germany should exit while its economy is still in one piece, or will they jump on this ice flow as well. Will Merkle become an infamous name, a traitor to Gernmany in the history books who created the watershed event that.......
I'm watching a stream of Bloomberg Asia and the voice and picture aren't in sync.
Anyone else having that problem?
Adios, naked CDS.
Does this mean Greece now has to balance their budget? Who will lend them anything if they are only going to get half back?
A central banker...
The objects in THIS mirror may appear bigger than they really are.....no kidding!
Funny how some people still bring a knife to a gunfight.
...and so, will the 'Barber of Berlin' be performing @ La Scala Opera house next?
Stay tuned!
Okay, cool it, sport. Your problem stems from the terms "inflation" and "deflation", first of all.
Credit crunches have nothing to do with deleveraging events. In fact, a deleveraging event, in this case, allows temporary market price distortions for speculators to front-run the inevitable response by the Fed to initiate MORE inflation.
Don't expect to get away with your tripe on zerohedge. I do suggest, however, you go to Krugman's blog and find some peace there, and note the strange tone of those posting on the site; you may sense a bit of Jones Town-like banter. Being 'hip' with your regurgitation of unsound principles of economics is telling of your character more than anything else.