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We Just Had A "Rerun" Of Bear Stearns: When Is Lehman Coming?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As the attached chart showing USD liquidity swap line usage by the ECB, or more specifically by European banks, we have now seen a surge to levels last seen in August 2009. However, more importantly this is where the usage was for the first time after the failure of Bear Stearns, and when everyone thought all had been fixed... until Lehman came. We are there now, in other words, we have just experienced a behind the scenes Bear-type event. What is disturbing is just how fast the rate of change was this time around compared to before, when it took months to get to $50 billion. Now, it was one week. When "Lehman v2.0" hits and it will hit, the next step function in the Fed's global bailout will be so big and so fast, it will induce vertigo.

 

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Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:08 | 1954305 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

2008 Redux

'When "Lehman v2.0" hits and it will hit, the next step function in the Fed's global bailout will be so big and so fast, it will induce vertigo.'

Correction. It should be Lehman(s)

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:12 | 1954322 The Limerick King
The Limerick King's picture

 

 

The insolvency crises is here

The headlights will soon hit the deer

With Ben at the wheel

Here comes the Big Steal

Bend-over and lube-up your rear.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:26 | 1954370 ratso
ratso's picture

Simply put - this is not a rerun of Bear Sterns or Lehman.  It is, however, a European liquity crisis.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:31 | 1954385 end da fed
end da fed's picture

would someone mind explaining this to me? (and yes, i could use The Bears right about now)

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:36 | 1954396 Straykitty
Straykitty's picture

*ditto*

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 10:17 | 1954537 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture
Welcome To Bailout 2.0!

"...they want all of the benefits of a Capitalist society but want the Socialist economic format of the state providing everything for the society...

With the countries having VATs there are problems. Each nation has different rates.

The United Kingdom has a 50% Income Tax and a VAT of 17.5 % Total taxation per citizen: 67.5% Tax rate. Sweden: Income Tax 55%; VAT 25% Total: 80%. Norway: Income Tax: 54.3% Total: 79.3%. Denmark: Income Tax 58%; VAT 25% Total: 83%

Even with these outrageous tax structures these countries are NOT financing social programs solely from taxes. They’re in debt beyond their eyeballs and need bail-out money no other country can really afford to provide. Except Ben Bernanke; he’ll print money until it has NO value and then print some more. Some say Bernanke needs an exorcism. He’s channeling John Maynard Keynes to no good effect.

Bernanke thinks the European socialist economic system is something America needs to assist. Good luck.

I’d suggest rather than an exorcism for channeling Keynes; he needs an enema. It might clear his head.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 10:28 | 1954568 Nikola Tesla
Nikola Tesla's picture

VAT is 20% in the UK now. It's fucking killing me whilst buying silver.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 10:53 | 1954582 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Slightly Off Topic, but Timmay just sealed the death of the with a wet, sloppy kiss, as only the Jeetner can definitively do, with his perfect .000% batting average. From The New York Times (virtuous disseminator of Goebbelfied news):

Geithner Sees 'Progress' in Efforts to Shore Up Euro

*20%? When will the Brits wake up and ride the politicians out on a rail? I have little doubt that Amerika will adopt a VAT soon, just because it's another way for the largest industry - government workers - to grasp at any means of ensuring their bloated ranks, salaries, pensions and other gilded perks, given their -247% efficiency rating, redundancy on about 1800 levels, and uselessness from the outset on about 1800 more.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 11:14 | 1954783 Nikola Tesla
Nikola Tesla's picture

I've been trying to get everyone I know to save the world by having a "hang a banker" day, hasn't exactly taken off yet...

We're too stoic and the majority are too stupid to understand the rape that's occurring. People are annoyed, but believe it'll all be better in a few years. I've woken a few people up, but it's hard work. Remember, we sold the world the shit shows like x factor, [x] has talent etc, we really do know how to pump out the propaganda machine these days.

The media over here would make Goebbels blush!

 

Paying 20% on top of the spot + fee really makes silver unappealing, especially when it gets hammered back time and time again. However, as a poor debt serf it's all that's within my grasp.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 11:34 | 1954840 Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

It isn't a "behind the scenes" Bear Sterns event, it is the Fed propping up the ECB and the IMF over Greece and the rest of the PIIGS.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:56 | 1955168 synonym
synonym's picture

Hey NK,

you probably already know, but just in case you don't, if you hold silver in a metal holding, such as Goldmoney or BullionVault, and don't take delivery then VAT is not payable. Plus, in future if you wanted to unlock some of the cash in your metal, with Goldmoney you can do that with their "SilverGrammes" i think.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 14:14 | 1955487 Nage42
Nage42's picture

Go somewhere, buy Canadian Maple Leaf Silver coins (CND$5 legal tender) and bring it back over the boarder as a financial instrument.

They can't duty you on carrying less than ~$10K in legal tender ~= 2000 coins...

 

Cheers.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 16:40 | 1956003 nuinut
nuinut's picture

whilst VAT on gold is...?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 14:32 | 1955537 SaMsKy
SaMsKy's picture

A small correction, Norway is financing by revenue. But the norwegian pension fund aka oilfund will be hit bad, and i dont like it!!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:34 | 1954392 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

WRONG, it is a solvency crisis.  Liquidity implies the problem could be fixed by simply adding more money to the money supply (a.k.a. more printing).  This will do nothing as everyone is everyone else's counterparty and everyone is demanding collateral assets of REAL VALUE in exchange, only to realize the nobody has enough assets of real value to back the amount of printing that will be required.  Fucking default already and address the REAL fucking problem (which ultimately is that the WORLD is insolvent).  Good luck.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 10:15 | 1954531 reboot this mofo
reboot this mofo's picture

wow, nailed that bitch. You get 2 lines.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 11:23 | 1954814 powersjq
powersjq's picture

Exactly. Insolvency is the ultimate cause. But illiquidity will the proximate cause. The crash will come about when major financial institutions have insuffient funds to meet current obligations. That's illiquidity. But the reason why they will be unable to meet their obligations is because no one will lend them money, because no one knows who has the assets to cover all his obligations--and this is problem because many, many banks simply do not have sufficient capital (liquid or near-liquid assets) to repay their current debts. That's insolvency.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 11:55 | 1954909 Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

Injecting liquidity is the short term Neo-Keynesian remedy for the symptoms of the underlying insolvency problem.

It reminds me of drinking whiskey to dull the pain of the leg amputation because it is 1880 and it the only remedy in the house.

With these devils at the helm, the question is; whether the patient actually dies from alcohol poisoning or blood loss.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:53 | 1954452 fonzanoon
fonzanoon's picture

Is it me or have TPTB figured out how to deal with a Lehman type event without the market falling apart?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 10:07 | 1954498 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, suppress the PM paper market, steal client funds so they can not take delivery of physical PMs that don't exist and print all along through ZIRP policies and free open double secret loans to unknown banks all around the world.

Any questions?  It really has long since past any sort of polite letter writing campaign to your politician.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 10:16 | 1954529 end da fed
end da fed's picture

"free open double secret loans to unknown banks all around the world"

speaking of which... i want to make sure i understand this... the FED is creating FRN out of thin air and loaning it to banks everywhere. they can do this without anyone knowing, correct?

even if FOIA comes into play years down the road, the FED has the ability to hide this?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 10:26 | 1954547 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Unless the other parties come forward and tell the world, then yes.  Funny how in a world were the IRS can tell precisely how much money your were paid last year, and probably every year, and where you spent every single cent of those funds, the Bernanke can not tell congress who he made loans too, what the interest was, or what the precise amount was and duration/repayment schedule.  Lots of youtube video of Ben saying "I don't know" to these types of specific questions during congressional hearings.  Nice to see another mind awaken.  Sorry, too late to take the blue pill.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 10:27 | 1954563 end da fed
end da fed's picture

thanks! I awoke awhile back but still find myself astonished at times, like when i think im understanding something TD has posted, and i say to myself "no fucking way this is happening", and then i get confirmation from you guys that i've understood it correctly

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 10:43 | 1954596 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I awoke when trying to close an account with Bank of America to take the cash to a coin dealer and they told me I could only take out $1,000 cash per day.  So I went over to another desk at the bank, got a credit card on the account and went to the coin dealer anyway and spent it all.  Came back and close the empty account the day after.  the good news is that these paper-pushing fucknuts are not that bright either.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 11:22 | 1954813 end da fed
end da fed's picture

brilliant- or not... such a simple run around. what a fucking joke. i think ive seen you post before that you want to be done with this farce. i agree. the sooner the better. i want to get this shit over too. unfortunately, i think alot more printing will happen first.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 14:48 | 1955604 Dental Floss Tycoon
Dental Floss Tycoon's picture

"So I went over to another desk at the bank, got a credit card on the account and went to the coin dealer anyway and spent it all."

The only difference is that now they have a paper trail.  They know what you bought and where you bought it.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 10:21 | 1954542 gojam
gojam's picture

@ratso,

Funny how the most sensible comment here gets stated.

Though LawofPhysics has a good point too, it's definately not a Bear Stearns or Lehman Brothers and I think that was your point

 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 10:24 | 1954555 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

gojam,

My point is that the effectiveness of printing without structural reform is becoming short lived and cost more and more.

ratso will get his liquidity crisis once all parties admit that they are insolvent and default.  In particular, I would predict a shortage of small denomination coins and bills.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 10:31 | 1954576 gojam
gojam's picture

Hi LoF

I did credit you and I can't fault your views but insolvency is a lack of liquidity. European countries and banks have plenty of illiquid assets that nobody wants to buy.

But I think ratso was also right concerning this continual comparative historical analysis.

 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 10:39 | 1954607 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

"Asset that nobody wants"

Isn't that an oxymoron?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:35 | 1955062 gojam
gojam's picture

=1 from me. ;-)

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 10:43 | 1954626 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I disagree, if you are solvent you have the hard assets that can be sold to make you liquid again.  If you are right and I am wrong, then let's see the countries in trouble sell their assets and let's see how "liquid" they become.  It isn't an "asset" if nobody wants it.  You sound like a graduate student I know in eCONomics.

Don't look back to predict the future for if you really use honest historical analysis to predict where this is heading then you are predicting WWIII, I guess I'd like to be a bit more optimistic.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 11:00 | 1954725 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Why not just create paper "assests" and sell them to each other? Problem solved!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 11:18 | 1954801 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Been doing that for 40+ years, the half-life for this "solution" is decreasing exponentially, unfortunately most do not understand exponential equations.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 11:36 | 1954844 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Just create the assests exponetially faster!

But Captain, she canna take much more of this!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:33 | 1955057 gojam
gojam's picture

Hi LofP,

It's my own fault for dashing down something quick before a meeting without really thinking.

I think ultimately you are right but I also think that the problems vary across Europe. Some banks are illiquid some are insolvent. Of the two it'll likely be insolvency which will trigger the big crisis which will expose liquidity issues. So you're right on that.

I'm against historical analysis as a predictor for future events which is why I think ratso was right to say this is not Bear Stearns or Lehman.

That was my main point too and I don't see why everyone jumped down his throat for saying it.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:46 | 1954420 jonan
jonan's picture

light travels over 6 trillion miles per year, nothing can travel faster than it, other than the speed at which satanke can print, perhaps C in the keynesian world is the constant for coke?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 10:11 | 1954515 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Well, unless the guys at the large hadron collider are right about neutrinos...

DavidC

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 10:23 | 1954554 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Theories are made to be broken.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 10:30 | 1954573 jonan
jonan's picture

who would have known that bankers, not physicists, would discover how to warp space and time...next up, bernanke announces the grand unification of the four forces, catches the first ever graviton, and opens a portal the M dimensions, all done in his spare time while saving the world, must be nice doing gods work...

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 10:50 | 1954676 OpenEyes
OpenEyes's picture

So, a bartender says "I'm sorry but we don't serve faster-than-light neutrinos here"

 

a neutrino walks into the bar

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 11:25 | 1954818 jonan
jonan's picture

was his name timmah or bernanke?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:12 | 1954323 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Hold on there Benny Boy.  You don't have my permission to hit the infinity button.

 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:33 | 1954390 IAmNotMark
IAmNotMark's picture

Snarling reply:  "Permission?  We don't need no stinking permission!!!"

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:54 | 1954456 ACP5gTG
ACP5gTG's picture

I believe that would be "steenking", sir . . . 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:18 | 1954345 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Just think if they had to print all that cash?  Electronic fiat money is so damn convenient, no need for wheelbarrows this time around. 

Get your food, pm coins and battle gear, the coming crash will be Medieval.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:08 | 1954308 Fips_OnTheSpot
Fips_OnTheSpot's picture

Yep, "outstanding", indeed =)

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:08 | 1954309 gojam
gojam's picture

"we have just experienced a behind the scenes Bear-type event"

Any speculation as to what that was ?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:11 | 1954320 maxmad
maxmad's picture

collapse, bitchez!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:15 | 1954331 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Take your pick: Shock Gen, Credit Agri, any of the Spanish banks, Intesa etc etc

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:08 | 1954313 mikmid
mikmid's picture

A verticle crash.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:09 | 1954316 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

I would ideally take all my money out of the market but I just can't bring my self to capitalize my loses

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:12 | 1954325 achmachat
achmachat's picture

am I guessing correctly that right now that loss is not the totality?

when everything implodes that loss will be the entire shabang!

you still have time to invest your currency in physical PMs ;-)

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:50 | 1954436 Ancona
Ancona's picture

I find it hilarious when some nameless coward rolls through and down-slams everyone. Boo hoo hoo, my pussy hurts. Stand and be recognized troll!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 10:10 | 1954511 Vergeltung
Vergeltung's picture

I have noticed that alot lately. coward(s) indeed.

 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 10:09 | 1954504 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

It is pretty obvious the money pumps are on full blast again.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:10 | 1954318 agent default
agent default's picture

They will print till we run out of trees.  Or electrons. Take your pick.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:10 | 1954319 falak pema
falak pema's picture

the exponential curve; when you are 5 minutes from drowning.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:12 | 1954321 youngman
youngman's picture

I agree when the selling starts...and people..countries  start to dump....it will go ballistic.....

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:13 | 1954326 maxmad
maxmad's picture

just look at the chart bitchez!  This should be good for a 50 handle drop!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:45 | 1954417 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

if technicals mattered it would be a larger drop than that, but they don't so be happy, get back in your cubical, and keep paying that interest so the elite can do whatever they want.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:14 | 1954327 Firing Pin
Firing Pin's picture

You're welcome that I bailed your European asses out! Who cares if I let my banker buddies gamble, and when they lose I buy the bad bets off of them with freshly printed dollars?  So the price of everything you buy goes up. I don't care. I want you to have less and less so that when you finally break and lose your home, me and my banker buddies will own it. Haven't you seen the Feds new motto?: "Pwning you bitchez since 1913." 

Regards,

Ben

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:14 | 1954329 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Just make it to New Years.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:17 | 1954341 maxmad
maxmad's picture

are you kidding.. just make it till friday, bitchez!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:17 | 1954342 Momauguin Joe
Momauguin Joe's picture

I think they are just trying to make it to Friday. Enough time to get that Iran battle plan in place.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:17 | 1954337 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I think it's pretty clear that we'll need more people to blame... I can't see otherwise...

Change is....

 

 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:17 | 1954343 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Or taller charts...

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:19 | 1954349 achmachat
achmachat's picture

well... for starters, I still don't understand how Van Rompuy could be designated full time President of the European Council without a single vote from "the people" and basically nobody cared...

 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:24 | 1954362 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

It was a pretty smart move back than.

Belgium doesn't matter at all in Europe, so they took a president without real power. BUT they elected him without and democratics involved.

Next time they'll elect a German or French one without a democratic vote.... and than the power will be totally concentrated.

Now everybody still mocks the function, but just remember that one day somebody with real power will sit in that seat and he/she will have total control.

 

 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:26 | 1954369 achmachat
achmachat's picture

this is exactly what I mean! A small group of people are putting all the chess pieces in place and NOBODY seems to notice or care.

how sad is this? so... who is to blame? the media? the general public because they're way too passive?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:30 | 1954382 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Please make sure that he/she does NOT have a mustache.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:32 | 1954386 achmachat
achmachat's picture

you mean like Charles Chaplin?!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 10:50 | 1954681 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I think he means NO GREEK WOMAN.

 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:25 | 1954366 plantigrade
plantigrade's picture

he's precious ?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:30 | 1954381 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

They care alright. X Factor, Strictly Come Dancing, Champions League.

 

They care alright.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 13:10 | 1955223 Gohn Galt
Gohn Galt's picture

Does Nigel Farage count?  At least he is vocal and calls politicians out on their decisions.

Farage: What gives you the right to dictate to the Greek and Italian people?     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdob6QRLRJU

Who is Herman van Rompuy?   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqovTGjYjM4&feature=related

EU bribes Croatia    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGA5SsrfJkE

 

 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:16 | 1954338 i-dog
i-dog's picture

It's just a scratch. It'll buff out.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:16 | 1954339 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

but the main thing is ...theres no way we can know when that HIT is coming ...do we??

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:16 | 1954340 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Followed by: Lehmmings.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:19 | 1954346 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

Nothing has really been fixed over these intervening years.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:50 | 1954438 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

Sure it has. The market has been fixed, but theother term is called; rigged.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:19 | 1954347 Tommy Gun
Tommy Gun's picture

Okay so help out someone new to this site. This shows the number of European banks tapping up the ECB for dollar funding (because no one else thinks there good for it?) Is this correct?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:22 | 1954356 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

The top of the graph says it's in USD billions.

 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:19 | 1954348 Tommy Gun
Tommy Gun's picture

Okay so help out someone new to this site. This shows the number of European banks tapping up the ECB for dollar funding (because no one else thinks there good for it?) Is this correct?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:44 | 1954413 Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

Yes.  In normal times the banks borrow from one another via interbank liquidity.  When each bank fears (or knows) that the other bank has bad debts (insolvent) they do not wish to borrow via normal interbank liquidity mechanisms.  When Lehman failed it was because everyone stopped giving them access to normal funding and Tyler is saying: the European banks are being forced to borrow from the ECB because the banks won't lend to each other for the exact reason that each bank thinks the other bank may be insolvent.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 11:12 | 1954772 Tommy Gun
Tommy Gun's picture

Many Thanks Mr.Bankster!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:20 | 1954351 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

Probably need a flash crash... to scare bloomberg off of the fed's case.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:56 | 1954461 i-dog
i-dog's picture

When a dog and a pony put on a show, there's a good chance it's a dog and pony show. The Bernank may be nearing the end of his printing contract.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:20 | 1954352 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

and that's what there willing to report on ...

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:21 | 1954354 cnsteph
cnsteph's picture

Could this be the result of the reduced rate of swap costs for the dollar? 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:24 | 1954360 reboot this mofo
reboot this mofo's picture

Lehman 2.0 is already in play. It is my understanding Lehman was a case of the banks not being able to prove they had the collateral for the mortgage securities and vehciles they were peddling, causing big problems (ie. liquidity and money-market runs). This time -- it will be the Rothschild Fed not being able to prove they have the collateral. This suit should sum it out well:

END-GAME BITCHES!!

http://www.rumormillnews.com/pdfs/11%20civ%208500%20Keenan%20Complaint.pdf

..Get ya' popcorn ready!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 10:34 | 1954571 hangemhigh
hangemhigh's picture
reboot this mofo                                                                                                             dude, that is so far off of the wall that it's impossible to describe.......the dragon family, yamaguichi's gold.......i remember when the chiasso thing went down.  it was so unusual i had no idea what was happening........this is indeed 'deep background' if in fact it's real........worst case the whole thing winds up in the same place as the jimmy hoffa file ......best case a huge signing bonus and one helluva movie contract.......
Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:24 | 1954361 lemosbrasil
lemosbrasil's picture

Germany still don't warned of SANTA CLAUS RAALY !!!

hahahahah..

They try after 6 days break up a downtrendline !!! And nothing !!!

See here: http://pracompraroupravender.blogspot.com/2011/12/avisa-alemanha-que-tem-rally-de-natal.html

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:24 | 1954363 youngman
youngman's picture

Friday will be a grand announcement....maybe they will use Obamas Roman decorations....but it will be another kick the can ...the politicans will speak...but it will never affect the people on the street..they will strike...and probably kill in the end

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:24 | 1954364 FubarNation
FubarNation's picture

Ok so a LEH event is coming and probably quickly - that is a given.

What the fuck does one do with surplus FRN's?

I remember the LEH fiasco well.  I was on vacation and watched in horror as my GC and SI contracts blew up and set me back a few hundred grand.

Sit and spin here gents?

I'm really at a loss these days on what the fuck to do.

Just spit ballin'.  Thanks for listening.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:28 | 1954377 reboot this mofo
reboot this mofo's picture

Fubar,

Buy physical Gold and Silver.

Its the smartest play out there.

Yeah, I know...haven't we heard that a 1000 times.

Paper is a diaster. Fiat is clearly at end-game.

Of course, unless you are watching the Muppets on CNBC and Bloomy.

Then we're in recovery with little chance of recession '12.

rtm ~

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:32 | 1954388 FubarNation
FubarNation's picture

mofo I have been a buyer of physical from $400 gold and $4 silver.   For some reason I just can't pick up the phone and call my coin guy and buy at these levels.  If a liquidity dump comes it has to piss on the PM's for a time being.  When that happens will I still be able to place an order, wire $ and get delivery?  Who knows. 

I guess I just have to realize that buy now - wait out the dump in prices and ride out the bad days until prices recover.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:51 | 1954443 tmosley
tmosley's picture

If you will recall, it was very, VERY difficult to take delivery after the 2008 dump.  SInce this crisis threatens to be an order of magnitude worse, you could easily wind up in a situation where even though the price has dropped to $3 an oz, there is none to be had, and those companies still taking orders at those prices will give you 2014 delivery dates.  Good luck on them remaining solvent between now and then.

This is why you just cost average.  Buy every month.  You won't wind up having paid the lowest price, but you won't have paid the highest either.

I've been buying since right after the 2008 dump, and my dollar cost average just breached $19.  This is dispite a buy at $45.  That's one buy out of almost 40 that was at the highs.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 10:22 | 1954552 flattrader
flattrader's picture

Paper is just paper...and it just kills me that Reggie has been running that "Gold" series on ZH.

Talk about the wrong target market!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:58 | 1954457 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Same here.  At this point you might do even better to simply just buy minted coins of low denomination (like Kyle Bass did a while back) so that you can trade with the peasants more easily without breaking up or having to use valuable silver and gold.  Once everyone figures out this is really a solvency crisis, THEN we will have a real liquidity crisis and even physical cash will become rare.  Depending on what your dollar cost average is you should probaly just fill in the cracks at this point and prepare your friends and neighbors as best you can.  No one will survive this alone.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:25 | 1954365 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

We have liftoff!.. liftoff to credit crisis II.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:32 | 1954383 slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

Conducting Stage II Booster Ignition - Printing to infinty and beyond

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:26 | 1954368 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Not so much vertigo, more like projectile vomiting.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:51 | 1954442 IAmNotMark
IAmNotMark's picture

Oh man...I HATE projectile vomiting!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:27 | 1954374 Little Red Rooter
Little Red Rooter's picture

Potatoes bitchez!

 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 11:38 | 1954376 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

I notice that the start of the chart shows it dropping from some level prior to Feb 2008.  From what area did it drop during the period prior to Feb 2008?

How do we know this is a fully accurate indicator of a "Lehman Event" if we have no context to the chart?  It would be nice to see this data starting well before the 2008 date shown here.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:31 | 1954384 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Big picture here is the East vs. the "upstart" West; all China has to do is wait this thing out....

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 10:10 | 1954508 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yep. They are well versed in crushing social unrest and can stand to lose a few people anyway.  They are communists for christ sake and will readily sacrifice individuals for the benefit of the state.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:36 | 1954397 slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

Remember this? http://youtu.be/1V7n3qRRM60

Expect this Tokyo Rose to be promoted to CNBS Front desk within hours!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:37 | 1954398 i be julia
i be julia's picture

So when does everything go BLAM?

http://fucklloydblankfein.blogspot.com

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:50 | 1954433 Josh Randall
Wed, 12/07/2011 - 10:10 | 1954507 grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

Lehman 2.0? I'm not sure we're done with 1.0 after Lehman cleared a bankruptcy hurdle yesterday.

Grandfathered TARP, anyone? Zombies never die.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 11:01 | 1954730 old naughty
old naughty's picture

Zombies. They are coming back for a repeat.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 13:20 | 1955292 wally_12
wally_12's picture

The statement  that “nothing travels faster than the speed of light” needs clarification here.

Speed denotes distance per unit time. Both terms are subject to Einstein’s “SpaceTime”. These are variables not constants.

The observations at the Hadron collider relate the quirkiness of time or space fluctuations.

 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 14:23 | 1955505 Esculent 69
Esculent 69's picture

Been reading ZH for over a year now and love all the useful info and commentary.  Something bothers me however.  Does anybody here ever stop and think that this has all been purposeful?  And i mean this in the political societal perspective and not the financial, capitalist model of greedy people just trying to buy everyone.  even a commi will act like a capitalist in order to bring down the capitalist system.  A communist doesn't go to the bathroom unless he makes a plan and a communist detests hiding their intentions.  I'm speaking of George Soros.  It appears to me that none of you have read his books or his theories, and do not understand what his conceptual framework as he describes it "reflexivity".  He quotes marx, hegel and hints of communist thinking and ideas. He is in the majors as it relates to finance, but is even a larger player in the realm of politics and media.  His theory of reflexivity involves the concept of cognitive and MANIPULATIVE functions that describe how people and specifically MARKETS are manipulated by imperfect info and act with imperfect info as participants in the market.  Participants actions are predictable and hence can be lead to a place that if given correct info they would never go.  Soros Quantum Fund like many other hedgefunds are private and do not come under FOIA. He also says that derivatives are a conveinient way of shorting.  Well what happened  to bears stearns could have happened to anyone in the market because they all had the same exposure to the contagion (MBA, MBS,CDS.....), but they went down to naked short selling and a questionable news release on MSNBC from Marc Faber who on live tv said a hedgefund guy he trusted told him that Bear was undercapitalized.  Bear also had a large short silver position that was taken over by JPM. Then came Lehman.  Soros had increased his shares of lehman from 10k shares to 9.5 million. Why would he do that when everyone knew that lehman couldn't be saved if only to take it down in it's weakest moment. Lehman had the largest position of commericial paper, money market accounts and would have been the place for the econonmy to get short term funding when the crisis hit, not to mention lehman was highly overleveraged .  the JEC on the financial meltdown sept 2008 on page 9 talks about the breaking of the buck do to the collapse of lehman which we were told went bankrupt on sept 15, but the fed was already preparing for lehmans collapse the week prior. the JEC said that redemptions were suspended for one week and that week ended on sept 17. go back seven days and ta da...9/11/08.  the first wave of redemptions came on sept 18 and all the subsequent redemptions further.  Soros has a concept called Open Society that has no nations or towns or borders. How do you create that world?  Systematically destroy the currencies to call for a one world currency that takes away sovereignty, i.e. Greece and Germany.  He has said that the problem with the world is the usa becauser the american people have a vote in congress.  that sounds like a marxist if i ever heard one and he refers to marx and communism and how to improve it quite a bit.  He broke the brittish pound and tried in asia. now he did it hear and the fed has one of two choices. 1) let the system collapse, or 2)print to oblivion and devalue the dollar which will lead to a collapse.  read his books and look where his head pokes up.  you just have to be honest with yourself  and under stand its about control over you and me.  sorry for being longwinded

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 14:56 | 1955634 Esculent 69
Esculent 69's picture

btw- why was lehman allowed to fail but the others before bear stearn seemed to be ok to bailout?  Soros did say that the financial crisis was a culmination of his lifes work.  If you listen to these people and take them seriously then you can be honest with yourself about what you are seeing.  Do you believe the media? NO. Do you believe the FED? Fuk NO. Do you believe a bunch of Marxist democrats/ progressives/ socialists/communists who jam a all intrusive gov't run healthcare program who say it will lowere costs and you will get to keep your doctors? yeah right. You might have t accept the fact that the people on the left really don't like individual freedom and the only way you have indiviual freedom is through economic freedom and who wants to take that away? Democrats!!!!  Marx said that the bourgeoisie has pitilessly torn assunder the motley feudal ties that bound man to his natural superiors and left him to his own self interest in the form of cash payment.  Wake The Fuck Up! This is not just about greedy bankers but people who wish to take away your freedom.  Marx said that the proletariat/working class will use its POLITICAL SUPREMACY to wrest by decrees all capital from the bourgeois/middle class to centralize all instruments of production by the state.  Who constantly talks about the worker? O'fukknutt. Who is embracing the OWS? O'buttfukk. Who is enciting class warfare? The biggest threat this country has ever know... O'NO. Soros bankrolled this guy and every other democrat and media outlet. Who do you think MoveOn.Org is?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 21:22 | 1956904 electronpaul
electronpaul's picture

If there is a sovereign default event, say Greece for example, wouldn't that trigger a CDS payoff? Isnt this the real problem? Aren't there 100x of notional out there for every country? I mean, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Italy, Spain all the ones going under must have been free cash for all the CDS writers because they were tbtf. MS, GS, etc would all be buried instantly in claims with nowhere near enough assets, right?

Any input to help me understand why a tiny country like Greece is not allowed to default would be appreciated. I mean Iceland is doing pretty good now, right?

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