We Just Had A "Rerun" Of Bear Stearns: When Is Lehman Coming?
As the attached chart showing USD liquidity swap line usage by the ECB, or more specifically by European banks, we have now seen a surge to levels last seen in August 2009. However, more importantly this is where the usage was for the first time after the failure of Bear Stearns, and when everyone thought all had been fixed... until Lehman came. We are there now, in other words, we have just experienced a behind the scenes Bear-type event. What is disturbing is just how fast the rate of change was this time around compared to before, when it took months to get to $50 billion. Now, it was one week. When "Lehman v2.0" hits and it will hit, the next step function in the Fed's global bailout will be so big and so fast, it will induce vertigo.
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2008 Redux
'When "Lehman v2.0" hits and it will hit, the next step function in the Fed's global bailout will be so big and so fast, it will induce vertigo.'
Correction. It should be Lehman(s)
The insolvency crises is here
The headlights will soon hit the deer
With Ben at the wheel
Here comes the Big Steal
Bend-over and lube-up your rear.
Simply put - this is not a rerun of Bear Sterns or Lehman. It is, however, a European liquity crisis.
would someone mind explaining this to me? (and yes, i could use The Bears right about now)
*ditto*
VAT is 20% in the UK now. It's fucking killing me whilst buying silver.
Slightly Off Topic, but Timmay just sealed the death of the € with a wet, sloppy kiss, as only the Jeetner can definitively do, with his perfect .000% batting average. From The New York Times (virtuous disseminator of Goebbelfied news):
Geithner Sees 'Progress' in Efforts to Shore Up Euro*20%? When will the Brits wake up and ride the politicians out on a rail? I have little doubt that Amerika will adopt a VAT soon, just because it's another way for the largest industry - government workers - to grasp at any means of ensuring their bloated ranks, salaries, pensions and other gilded perks, given their -247% efficiency rating, redundancy on about 1800 levels, and uselessness from the outset on about 1800 more.
I've been trying to get everyone I know to save the world by having a "hang a banker" day, hasn't exactly taken off yet...
We're too stoic and the majority are too stupid to understand the rape that's occurring. People are annoyed, but believe it'll all be better in a few years. I've woken a few people up, but it's hard work. Remember, we sold the world the shit shows like x factor, [x] has talent etc, we really do know how to pump out the propaganda machine these days.
The media over here would make Goebbels blush!
Paying 20% on top of the spot + fee really makes silver unappealing, especially when it gets hammered back time and time again. However, as a poor debt serf it's all that's within my grasp.
It isn't a "behind the scenes" Bear Sterns event, it is the Fed propping up the ECB and the IMF over Greece and the rest of the PIIGS.
Hey NK,
you probably already know, but just in case you don't, if you hold silver in a metal holding, such as Goldmoney or BullionVault, and don't take delivery then VAT is not payable. Plus, in future if you wanted to unlock some of the cash in your metal, with Goldmoney you can do that with their "SilverGrammes" i think.
Go somewhere, buy Canadian Maple Leaf Silver coins (CND$5 legal tender) and bring it back over the boarder as a financial instrument.
They can't duty you on carrying less than ~$10K in legal tender ~= 2000 coins...
Cheers.
whilst VAT on gold is...?
A small correction, Norway is financing by revenue. But the norwegian pension fund aka oilfund will be hit bad, and i dont like it!!
WRONG, it is a solvency crisis. Liquidity implies the problem could be fixed by simply adding more money to the money supply (a.k.a. more printing). This will do nothing as everyone is everyone else's counterparty and everyone is demanding collateral assets of REAL VALUE in exchange, only to realize the nobody has enough assets of real value to back the amount of printing that will be required. Fucking default already and address the REAL fucking problem (which ultimately is that the WORLD is insolvent). Good luck.
wow, nailed that bitch. You get 2 lines.
Exactly. Insolvency is the ultimate cause. But illiquidity will the proximate cause. The crash will come about when major financial institutions have insuffient funds to meet current obligations. That's illiquidity. But the reason why they will be unable to meet their obligations is because no one will lend them money, because no one knows who has the assets to cover all his obligations--and this is problem because many, many banks simply do not have sufficient capital (liquid or near-liquid assets) to repay their current debts. That's insolvency.
Injecting liquidity is the short term Neo-Keynesian remedy for the symptoms of the underlying insolvency problem.
It reminds me of drinking whiskey to dull the pain of the leg amputation because it is 1880 and it the only remedy in the house.
With these devils at the helm, the question is; whether the patient actually dies from alcohol poisoning or blood loss.
Is it me or have TPTB figured out how to deal with a Lehman type event without the market falling apart?
Yes, suppress the PM paper market, steal client funds so they can not take delivery of physical PMs that don't exist and print all along through ZIRP policies and free open double secret loans to unknown banks all around the world.
Any questions? It really has long since past any sort of polite letter writing campaign to your politician.
"free open double secret loans to unknown banks all around the world"
speaking of which... i want to make sure i understand this... the FED is creating FRN out of thin air and loaning it to banks everywhere. they can do this without anyone knowing, correct?
even if FOIA comes into play years down the road, the FED has the ability to hide this?
Unless the other parties come forward and tell the world, then yes. Funny how in a world were the IRS can tell precisely how much money your were paid last year, and probably every year, and where you spent every single cent of those funds, the Bernanke can not tell congress who he made loans too, what the interest was, or what the precise amount was and duration/repayment schedule. Lots of youtube video of Ben saying "I don't know" to these types of specific questions during congressional hearings. Nice to see another mind awaken. Sorry, too late to take the blue pill.
thanks! I awoke awhile back but still find myself astonished at times, like when i think im understanding something TD has posted, and i say to myself "no fucking way this is happening", and then i get confirmation from you guys that i've understood it correctly
I awoke when trying to close an account with Bank of America to take the cash to a coin dealer and they told me I could only take out $1,000 cash per day. So I went over to another desk at the bank, got a credit card on the account and went to the coin dealer anyway and spent it all. Came back and close the empty account the day after. the good news is that these paper-pushing fucknuts are not that bright either.
brilliant- or not... such a simple run around. what a fucking joke. i think ive seen you post before that you want to be done with this farce. i agree. the sooner the better. i want to get this shit over too. unfortunately, i think alot more printing will happen first.
"So I went over to another desk at the bank, got a credit card on the account and went to the coin dealer anyway and spent it all."
The only difference is that now they have a paper trail. They know what you bought and where you bought it.
@ratso,
Funny how the most sensible comment here gets stated.
Though LawofPhysics has a good point too, it's definately not a Bear Stearns or Lehman Brothers and I think that was your point
gojam,
My point is that the effectiveness of printing without structural reform is becoming short lived and cost more and more.
ratso will get his liquidity crisis once all parties admit that they are insolvent and default. In particular, I would predict a shortage of small denomination coins and bills.
Hi LoF
I did credit you and I can't fault your views but insolvency is a lack of liquidity. European countries and banks have plenty of illiquid assets that nobody wants to buy.
But I think ratso was also right concerning this continual comparative historical analysis.
"Asset that nobody wants"
Isn't that an oxymoron?
=1 from me. ;-)
I disagree, if you are solvent you have the hard assets that can be sold to make you liquid again. If you are right and I am wrong, then let's see the countries in trouble sell their assets and let's see how "liquid" they become. It isn't an "asset" if nobody wants it. You sound like a graduate student I know in eCONomics.
Don't look back to predict the future for if you really use honest historical analysis to predict where this is heading then you are predicting WWIII, I guess I'd like to be a bit more optimistic.
Why not just create paper "assests" and sell them to each other? Problem solved!
Been doing that for 40+ years, the half-life for this "solution" is decreasing exponentially, unfortunately most do not understand exponential equations.
Just create the assests exponetially faster!
But Captain, she canna take much more of this!
Hi LofP,
It's my own fault for dashing down something quick before a meeting without really thinking.
I think ultimately you are right but I also think that the problems vary across Europe. Some banks are illiquid some are insolvent. Of the two it'll likely be insolvency which will trigger the big crisis which will expose liquidity issues. So you're right on that.
I'm against historical analysis as a predictor for future events which is why I think ratso was right to say this is not Bear Stearns or Lehman.
That was my main point too and I don't see why everyone jumped down his throat for saying it.
light travels over 6 trillion miles per year, nothing can travel faster than it, other than the speed at which satanke can print, perhaps C in the keynesian world is the constant for coke?
Well, unless the guys at the large hadron collider are right about neutrinos...
DavidC
Theories are made to be broken.
who would have known that bankers, not physicists, would discover how to warp space and time...next up, bernanke announces the grand unification of the four forces, catches the first ever graviton, and opens a portal the M dimensions, all done in his spare time while saving the world, must be nice doing gods work...
So, a bartender says "I'm sorry but we don't serve faster-than-light neutrinos here"
a neutrino walks into the bar
was his name timmah or bernanke?
Hold on there Benny Boy. You don't have my permission to hit the infinity button.
Snarling reply: "Permission? We don't need no stinking permission!!!"
I believe that would be "steenking", sir . . .
Just think if they had to print all that cash? Electronic fiat money is so damn convenient, no need for wheelbarrows this time around.
Get your food, pm coins and battle gear, the coming crash will be Medieval.
Yep, "outstanding", indeed =)
"we have just experienced a behind the scenes Bear-type event"
Any speculation as to what that was ?
collapse, bitchez!
Take your pick: Shock Gen, Credit Agri, any of the Spanish banks, Intesa etc etc
A verticle crash.
I would ideally take all my money out of the market but I just can't bring my self to capitalize my loses
am I guessing correctly that right now that loss is not the totality?
when everything implodes that loss will be the entire shabang!
you still have time to invest your currency in physical PMs ;-)
I find it hilarious when some nameless coward rolls through and down-slams everyone. Boo hoo hoo, my pussy hurts. Stand and be recognized troll!
I have noticed that alot lately. coward(s) indeed.
It is pretty obvious the money pumps are on full blast again.
They will print till we run out of trees. Or electrons. Take your pick.
the exponential curve; when you are 5 minutes from drowning.
I agree when the selling starts...and people..countries start to dump....it will go ballistic.....
just look at the chart bitchez! This should be good for a 50 handle drop!
if technicals mattered it would be a larger drop than that, but they don't so be happy, get back in your cubical, and keep paying that interest so the elite can do whatever they want.
You're welcome that I bailed your European asses out! Who cares if I let my banker buddies gamble, and when they lose I buy the bad bets off of them with freshly printed dollars? So the price of everything you buy goes up. I don't care. I want you to have less and less so that when you finally break and lose your home, me and my banker buddies will own it. Haven't you seen the Feds new motto?: "Pwning you bitchez since 1913."
Regards,
Ben
Just make it to New Years.
are you kidding.. just make it till friday, bitchez!
I think they are just trying to make it to Friday. Enough time to get that Iran battle plan in place.
I think it's pretty clear that we'll need more people to blame... I can't see otherwise...
Change is....
Or taller charts...
well... for starters, I still don't understand how Van Rompuy could be designated full time President of the European Council without a single vote from "the people" and basically nobody cared...
It was a pretty smart move back than.
Belgium doesn't matter at all in Europe, so they took a president without real power. BUT they elected him without and democratics involved.
Next time they'll elect a German or French one without a democratic vote.... and than the power will be totally concentrated.
Now everybody still mocks the function, but just remember that one day somebody with real power will sit in that seat and he/she will have total control.
this is exactly what I mean! A small group of people are putting all the chess pieces in place and NOBODY seems to notice or care.
how sad is this? so... who is to blame? the media? the general public because they're way too passive?
Please make sure that he/she does NOT have a mustache.
you mean like Charles Chaplin?!
I think he means NO GREEK WOMAN.
he's precious ?
They care alright. X Factor, Strictly Come Dancing, Champions League.
They care alright.
Does Nigel Farage count? At least he is vocal and calls politicians out on their decisions.
Farage: What gives you the right to dictate to the Greek and Italian people? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdob6QRLRJU
Who is Herman van Rompuy? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqovTGjYjM4&feature=related
EU bribes Croatia http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGA5SsrfJkE
It's just a scratch. It'll buff out.
but the main thing is ...theres no way we can know when that HIT is coming ...do we??
Followed by: Lehmmings.
Nothing has really been fixed over these intervening years.
Sure it has. The market has been fixed, but theother term is called; rigged.
Okay so help out someone new to this site. This shows the number of European banks tapping up the ECB for dollar funding (because no one else thinks there good for it?) Is this correct?
The top of the graph says it's in USD billions.
Okay so help out someone new to this site. This shows the number of European banks tapping up the ECB for dollar funding (because no one else thinks there good for it?) Is this correct?
Yes. In normal times the banks borrow from one another via interbank liquidity. When each bank fears (or knows) that the other bank has bad debts (insolvent) they do not wish to borrow via normal interbank liquidity mechanisms. When Lehman failed it was because everyone stopped giving them access to normal funding and Tyler is saying: the European banks are being forced to borrow from the ECB because the banks won't lend to each other for the exact reason that each bank thinks the other bank may be insolvent.
Many Thanks Mr.Bankster!
Probably need a flash crash... to scare bloomberg off of the fed's case.
When a dog and a pony put on a show, there's a good chance it's a dog and pony show. The Bernank may be nearing the end of his printing contract.
and that's what there willing to report on ...
Could this be the result of the reduced rate of swap costs for the dollar?