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We Will Hit 84 Degrees In NYC Today (Seasonally Adjusted)

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Via Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors,

 

 

There has been a lot of talk lately about “seasonal adjustments” and what they actually mean and do for the data.

 

Reporting today’s forecast in “seasonally adjusted” terms would not be incorrect.  The temperature today is almost 30 degrees higher than the average March temperature in NYC, so reporting it as 30 degrees higher than the annual temperature is fine.  You instantly know that today is abnormally warm for the time of year.  It doesn’t necessarily help you choose what to wear unless you know the monthly and annual averages.  It isn’t wrong, but the information isn’t perfect either.  If you only had national average temperatures, how would you seasonally adjust today’s NYC temperature?  That gets more complicated.

 

We like “seasonally” adjusted numbers because it “smooths” the data.  We don’t get big jumps due to the time of year and we can apply trend lines, etc. to the graphs.  There is nothing wrong per se with that, but the adjustments can also mask things in the data.  On unemployment, is the BLS adjustment better or worse than what other people model?  What variables does it account for?  Does it properly account for potential effects of how long a recession has been going.  How often does “seasonality” change.  In theory, the market could see a -200k number and realize that if normally this time of year it would have been -400k, then it is a good number.  It would be a good sign, but it is only +200k for example if the seasonality is consistent.  Anyways, enough on that subject.  Seasonality isn’t bad, and is useful in many ways, but so is the raw data and trying to figure out if the adjustments make sense or need to be modified a lot due to the particular circumstances at the time (like great warm weather).

 

The markets are almost all doing well so far this morning.  Corporate and financial credit in Europe is significantly tighter, with Main 3 tighter, XOVER 11 tighter, and the Financials CDS index 4 tighter.  Partly on the back of some German confidence numbers (which don’t seem to be a leading indicator) and hopes that the EU is becoming less austere.  Spain has been told to get to a 5.3% budget deficit, rather than the 4.4% one they reneged on last week.  Both sides are maintaining the farce that the 3% target for 2013 will be met.

Spanish bond yields are higher again, and CDS is unchanged – about the only asset that doesn’t seem to be doing better today.  According to Bloomberg, the EFSF will be releasing money to Greece, €5.9 billion in March, €3.3 billion in April, and €5.3 billion in May. That is good, because the ECB has €4.7 billion of GGB bonds maturing in March, and €3.3 billion of GGB bonds maturing in May. 

After a flurry of early numbers, we can all wait for the Fed statement.  If there was ever a day designed to be waiting for the Fed statement sitting outside at Bryant Park or somewhere, today would be that day.  But inside, staring at screens, the market will be closely watching the statement.  There is some concern the Fed may acknowledge that inflation is actually a concern for the first time, reducing chances of further QE.  As the election gets closer, it will become harder for the Fed to move on QE without compellingly bad data (not just bad in the eyes of the Fed, but to general person tracking the economy).  There is still hope that the Fed has been downplaying growth in order to justify QE and will signal its intentions to move before it is too late, and the bank stress tests may be another reason the Fed can justify QE, especially in the mortgage market, where the Fed insisted on scenarios worse than most investors expected.

 


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Tue, 03/13/2012 - 08:50 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

So that sweet summer garbage smell wil come early this year?

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:01 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sc0F-fw3tkY Lovin Spoonful Lyrics

" Summer In The City "

Hot town, summer in the city
Back of my neck getting burnt and gritty
Been down, isn't it a pity
Doesn't seem to be a shadow in the city

All around, people looking half dead
Walking on the sidewalk, hotter than a match head

But at night it's a different world
Go out and find a girl
Come-on come-on and dance all night
Despite the heat it'll be alright

And babe, don't you know it's a pity
That the days can't be like the nights
In the summer, in the city
In the summer, in the city

Cool town, evening in the city
Dressed so fine and looking so pretty
Cool cat, looking for a kitty
Gonna look in every corner of the city
Till I'm wheezing at the bus stop
Running up the stairs, gonna meet you on the rooftop

But at night it's a different world
Go out and find a girl
Come-on come-on and dance all night
Despite the heat it'll be alright

And babe, don't you know it's a pity
That the days can't be like the nights
In the summer, in the city
In the summer, in the city

Hot town, summer in the city
Back of my neck getting dirty and gritty
Been down, isn't it a pity
Doesn't seem to be a shadow in the city

All around, people looking half dead
Walking on the sidewalk, hotter than a match head

But at night it's a different world
Go out and find a girl
Come-on come-on and dance all night
Despite the heat it'll be alright

And babe, don't you know it's a pity
That the days can't be like the nights
In the summer, in the city
In the summer, in the city

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:05 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ahhmiuyko0

Sly And The Family Stone - Hot Fun In The Summertime Lyrics

End of the spring and here she comes back
Hi hi hi hi, there
Them summer days, those summer days

That's when I had most of my fun, back
Hi hi hi hi, there
Them summer days, those summer days

I cloud nine when I want to
Out of school, yeah
County fair in the country sun
And everything is cool, ooh yeah

Hot fun in the summertime
Hot fun in the summertime
Hot fun in the summertime
Hot fun in the summertime

First of the fall and there she goes back
Bye bye bye bye, there
Them summer days, those summer days

Boop boop da boop boop when I want to
Out of school, yeah
County fair in the country sun
And everything is cool, ooh yeah

Hot fun in the summertime
Hot fun in the summertime
Hot fun in the summertime
Hot fun in the summertime...

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:08 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Jy6H8DqTg8 INCIDENT ON 57TH STREET Album version

Spanish Johnny drove in from the underworld last night
With bruised arms and broken rhythm in a beat-up old Buick but dressed just like dynamite
He tried sellin' his heart to the hard girls over on Easy Street
But they sighed, "Johnny, it falls apart so easy and you know hearts these days are cheap"
And the pimps swung their axes and said, "Johnny, you're a cheater"
Well, the pimps swung their axes and said, "Johnny, you're a liar"
And from out of the shadows came a young girl's voice
Said, "Johnny, don't cry"
Puerto Rican Jane, oh, won't you tell me what's your name
I want to drive you down to the other side of town
Where paradise ain't so crowded, there'll be action goin' down on Shanty Lane tonight
All them golden heeled fairies in a real bitch fight pull thirty-eights and kiss the girls goodnight

Oh, goodnight, it's all right, Jane
Now let them black boys in to light the soul flame
We may find it out on the street tonight, baby
Or we may walk until the daylight, maybe

Well, like a cool Romeo he made his moves, ah, she looked so fine
And like a late Juliet she knew he'd never be true, but then she didn't really mind
Upstairs a band was playin', the singer was singin' something about going home
She whispered, "Spanish Johnny, you can leave me tonight, but just don't leave me alone"
And Johnny cried, "Puerto Rican Jane, word is down the cops have found the vein"
Well, them barefoot boys, they left their homes for the woods
Them little barefoot street boys, they said  homes ain't no good
They left the corners, threw away all of their switchblade knives
And kissed each other goodbye

Johnny was sittin' on the fire escape watchin' the kids playin' down in the street
He called down, "Hey, little heroes, summer's long, but I guess it ain't very sweet around here anymore"
Janey sleeps in sheets damp with sweat; Johnny sits up alone and watches her dream on, dream on
And the sister prays for lost souls, then breaks down in the chapel after everyone's gone
Jane moves over to share her pillow but opens her eyes to see Johnny up and putting his clothes on
She says, "Those romantic young boys (those romantic young boys), all they ever want to do is fight"
Those romantic young boys (those romantic young boys), they're callin' through the window:
"Hey, Spanish Johnny, you want to make a little easy money tonight?"
And Johnny whispered, "Goodnight, it's all tight, Jane
I'll meet you tomorrow night on Lover's Lane
We may find it out on the street tonight, baby
Or we may walk until the daylight, maybe"
Oh, goodnight, it's all right, Jane
I'm gonna meet you tomorrow night on Lover's Lane
Ah, we can find it out on the street tonight, baby
Or we may walk until the daylight, maybe
Ah, goodnight, it's all right, Jane
I'll meet you tomorrow night on Lover's Lane
Now we may find it out on, on the street tonight, baby
Or we may have to walk until the morning light, maybe
(Goodnight, it's all right, Jane)
(Goodnight, it's all right, Jane)
(Goodnight, it's all right, Jane)
(Goodnight, it's all right, Jane)
(Goodnight, it's all)

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 08:51 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Seasonals might work in NYC, but not DC where the hot air is always building.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:03 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Weather forecast from DC...

"In the Rocky Mountains ~ Cloudy"

In the Cloudy Mountains ~ Rocky"

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 11:20 | Link to Comment Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

More tornados coming from the heat. Maybe a cluster for the hamptons with many bankster names on them. Let them huff and puff and blow them into the ocean.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 08:54 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

If the fed is trying to manufacture a downturn in the market they seem to be doing an awful job at it. It seems contradictory that data would be manipulated positively to show a recovery at the same time as the fed would need data to be flat or negative to justify more QE. I don't see how these two things go together.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 08:54 | Link to Comment Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Kind of like that Twilight Zone episode about the people dying of heat because the Earth is moving closer to the sun. But really it's a womans dream and in reality they are moving away and slowly freezing.

 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:05 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

ooooh that's a chiller... I don't think I'll be able to sleep tonight...

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 10:34 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Just a matter of perspective. 6-8 feet of snow are forecast for the Sierra Nevada by Friday.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 08:56 | Link to Comment johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

we just seasonaly adjusted what time it is, so why not seasonaly adjust the temperature, as i have seasonaly adjusted miles to equal kilometers so i get better gas mileage too

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:07 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Fuck seasonal adjustments... At least with the goddamned weather I can walk outside and see if the weathermans forecast was FOS or not...

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:40 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

For economists it doesn't matter.  If they were weathermen, they would say, "tomorrow's weather has a number of competing scenarios, it could be 50 degrees, 60 degrees, 70 degrees or 80 degrees."  And then they'll assign a bogus probability to each.  That way, no matter what happens they can say they were right, even though 75% of their guesses were wrong.  Whee!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 08:59 | Link to Comment rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Well here we are after the "end of the world catastrophic Greece default" with US futures pumped.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:01 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Yeah welcome to "Lehman x 10"

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:07 | Link to Comment rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

In the end the cumulative effect of "oh that never happened" will probably actually be "Lehmanx1000" but trying to single out an "event" that starts the cascade could have us sitting here a year from now scratching our heads or tommorow. 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:15 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I am done scratching my head about it and I am certainly done putting my chips on a color thinking I can get the timing or outcome right. It's suicide.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:01 | Link to Comment rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Today's bullshit "Euro Optimism" "Intensity of Consumer Spending" and on and on.  They're not done manipulating this market yet, Greece has been swept under the rug like it never happened. Complete total control. For now.   Starting to lose real interest keeping up with this crap.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:00 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

"Seasonal adjustments" brought to you by the Obama campaign

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:40 | Link to Comment Raskolnikoff
Raskolnikoff's picture

there is nothing untruthful about your statement. Course the people that believe EVERYONE that ever lived is wrong and we are in an utterly hopeless situation that somehow, only THEY understand, would disagree. 

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:00 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

"Seasonal adjustments" brought to you by the Obama campaign

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:00 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

"Seasonal adjustments" brought to you by the Obama campaign

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:01 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Carbon tax weather.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:08 | Link to Comment Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

Transitory..  That tempurature will negatively impact the Euro and PM's today, Rinse and repeat.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:08 | Link to Comment marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

so,I wonder how do they seasonally adjust for all those homeless people that are getting hooked up as walking wifi hot spots? do they count as employed now? are they back in the labor force?

kind of creepy in a way isn't it? homeless people wandering around, acting as living portals to the matrix, agents of 24/7 anywhere, anytime access, convenient for the providers that they don't have any homes to got to, they are never unavailable to provide  a connection...

brave new world I guess.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:13 | Link to Comment Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

They'll be unemployed again just as soon as someone figures out stray cats and dogs or pigeons are cheaper.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:11 | Link to Comment rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Ten bux says moral mushrooms come up early this year.  In my area it's always the 3rd week of April. At the current rate we're going I might start looking more towards the 1st week.  Those roonies are pretty smart though.

My main concern is this would be a prime year for a late frost and wipe out all my fruit trees as they are coming around much earlier.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:11 | Link to Comment Olympia
Olympia's picture

World War III - The First Private War in History

 

Those who won all battles shall lose the war.

Bilderberg Group and the crimes against humanity.

 

This is how things work in all countries. Whatever used to belong to their people, today it belongs to the multinational companies of the Club. People were betrayed by their given leaderships and they lost everything. Capitals and markets were handed to the Club bosses. If you understand what is going on in Greece, you can understand what is going on in Britain, France, and Germany etc..

 

http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2012/02/world-war-iii.html

 

Authored by PANAGIOTIS TRAIANOU

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:12 | Link to Comment Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

2012 - year of the angry sun

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 11:23 | Link to Comment Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

The sun of god may show who the real energizer bunny is.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:14 | Link to Comment TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

We all kind of wait for some reset to start, in my extremely humble opinion, IT ALREADY HAS! Slowly but surely we sink into the abyss, into chaos and WAR! It will be slow and painful and seemed to never end but when it does....! What we see today may go on for another 3-5 years, as long as printing is an option(or the only one for that matter) the "entitled" will never stop, until someONE stops THEM!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:27 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

As I said elsewhere:

If the current La Nina-like conditions evolve to an El Nino and there is no major volcanic eruption, 2012 or 2013 will be the hottest year on record since the Industrial Revolution....

2011 was a relatively cool year due to the cooling influence of a strong La Niña event.  In fact, 2011 was impacted by the 5th-largest La Niña influence of any given year since 1950, and the largest since 1974.  Nevertheless, it was the 10th-hottest year on record, and the hottest La Niña year on record

http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/gcs_fig_1_big.jpg

Anybody want to take that bet? Lets say a tube of Silver Leafs? Straight up odds...

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:54 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

I don't ever bet on any climate BS ever since I looked at areas where climate "scientists" took measurements. One of the areas where they were taking measurements to show increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere was directly above active volcanoes in Hawaii. In a debate in college I brought that up and was hit with, "So you admit the data shows an increase in atmospheric CO2."

I said, "Of course you're going to get higher levels of CO2 above an active volcano!!! That really isn't applicable to areas that don't have an active volcano underneath. By using data above a volcano and averaging that into other numbers you are artificially skewing the numbers towards the outcome you want to see." I was looked at like I had two heads.

Pretty much the same as arguing with nearly any economist today that believes in the reported charts.

Much of our current weather can be attributed to increased solar radiation and a continued decrease in the Earth's magnetic field. If some gravitanional anomoly is causing the Earth to even tilt half a degree off its axis, it could cause massive temperature changes. Remember, the Earth doesn't spin perfectly, it does wobble. Just perhaps, that wobble could cause an extra degree tilt towards the sun during specific winters causing increased temperatures. Coupled with increased solar activity that could disrupt weather patterns. Even Earth's orbit around the sun isn't perfect. The Earth wobbles along that path as well, somtimes moving closer to the sun and sometimes further.

Just perhaps, like planetary alignments, there are instances where the Earth's orbital wobble and axis wobble line up to multiply the effects causing truly wacky climate changes for short times. Maybe that is what the Mayans and other ancients charted.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 10:18 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

My what a fine collection of psuedo-science clap-trap you have put on display...

You sound like Newt Gingrich... just smart enough to fool a stupid person into believing that you know what you are talking about...

Any idea why I might have added the volcano caveat?

Oh, and those wobbles? Look up Milankovitch cycles and their relationship to ice ages...

And just so you know, in the last 35 years of global warming, the sun has shown a slight cooling trend. Sun and climate have been going in opposite directions as shown here

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 10:43 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Bo-ring!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 10:48 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Ig-no-rant!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 10:53 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

I think your bet is a little too risky, flak. You should add a couple more conditions in your favor.

BTW, I bet you I win this coin toss, as long as it isn't tails, I bet that it will be heads. 1000 AGEs, anyone?

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 10:58 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Hey.. if GW is a hoax and/or it stopped in 1998, then I am making sucker bet.... I want to see a real denier put his money where his mouth is...

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 11:09 | Link to Comment tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

LOL. That unfortunate typo, was it intentional?

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:29 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

So if you base trendlines on underlying manipulated and incorrect data, doesn't that make the trendlines worthless?

I hate trendline charts. Most of the time it is always about finding correlations that don't actually exist. The data over the past three years has been so manipulated that it can not be compared to any previous time with any accuracy.

The only numbers that matter are the real labor force participation rate, the average income for the lower 85% of the workforce, and the level of government debt every month. Nearly all growth is the result of record government defecits every month. Every month fewer people are actualy working and the average real income for the majority of the country continues to fall. So is that really growth?

How wonderfull to borrow from future generations to finance the consumption of today.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:30 | Link to Comment Yes_Questions
Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:31 | Link to Comment overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

just watched part of a Discovery channel report on Security of Obuma..a speech at the UN in NYC..they had police every 10 feet, on each street he drove down in his Amoured Car. for two blocks either side were blocked off along the route.counter  sniper teams on the route on high buildings. all traffic stopped across town. who knows what else was not reported..one would wonder why the need for such extreme measures.. at one time in America one could walk up to the Whitehouse and knock on the door and walk in often let in by the President himself.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:36 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Upper East Siders hate us for our freedoms....

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 10:16 | Link to Comment Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

If I was the President I'd open the White House right the fuck up. BBQ Chicken and kegs for everyone on the 4th. Get all rowdy'd up and go beat the shit out of CONgress.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:41 | Link to Comment element115
element115's picture

Only fags post song lyrics.

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:44 | Link to Comment BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...yeah right, old Chairsatan may mention inflation on dee ho-rizon, lol, certainly not ending zero.  

Benny and the 911 Jets are singing new world order, AKA ''Another World'' http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VgIZClTrB4g&feature=results_main&playnext=1&list=PLB60C88A261D6DD14

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 09:55 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

it gets very complicated very vast&fast

the "data" must be embedded in interpretation-ready yum-yums

slewie has told the FED concentrate on the stability of the more global picture as much as possible, right now, and heads-up on the inflation, shitheads!

oh...and stay the fuk outa the housing & mortgage "markets"!  you've done enuf!!!

so, it should be pretty non-event-ful since i'm not trying to convince anyone to give me their money or do anything with the collective purse but close it and re-design the collective from the corpo- to the more human;  but for those who are, we need the fuking entertainment!

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 10:14 | Link to Comment SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

The NWS has adopted the BLS models...?

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 10:38 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

I got 72 miles per gallon in my Subaru yesterday........ seasonally adjusted

Tue, 03/13/2012 - 10:49 | Link to Comment Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

I only weigh 180 pounds.....SEASONALLY ADJUSTED.

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