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Weak Indian Monsoon Dries Up Centrally-Planned Liquidity Expectations

Tyler Durden's picture


Drought has devastated crops around the world this year. While most have focused on the extreme issues in the US, we noted two weeks ago that the Monsoon season was shaping up to add fuel to the fire of illiquidity. As the NY Times reports, there is simply not enough rain in India as the annual monsoon season is down 12%. "If this situation continues, I'll lose everything" is how one soybean farmer highlighted his plight (and no government insurance or subsidies there).

This is India's fourth drought in 12 years - raising concerns at the country's reliability monsoon rains as it source of fresh water (and sustainability) as "nothing can happen without rain." India is more vulnerable to disruption from drought than the US. While agriculture accounts for just 15% of India’s economy, half of its 1.2 billion people work on farms, and many of its poorest citizens already cannot afford enough food after price increases of 10% or more in the last couple of years.

UN Food Price Index rose the most in July in three years...


Famine is not an immediate threat though as India has stockpiles of food (though we know the issue there) but critically this, as we noted here before, places inordinate pressure on central bankers (specifically the PBoC) where its citizens are already facing record high prices for staples like soybeans as the world's markets (devoid of contemplation of the plight of the average citizen - so long as my AAPL stock goes up) anticipate the free-lunch of central bank liquidity while its that non-metaphorical liquidity that could ease pressures on millions.

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Tue, 09/04/2012 - 14:23 | 2761244 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

no rain? there goes their annual shower.

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 15:02 | 2761420 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Whatever Tyler wrote this monster hypotactic run-on was a Germanist Hoelderlin theory fanatic with a penchant for the essay on Poetic Modes (keep it coming, whatever taxes the mental faculty of the average Wall Street cockroach will surely be a delight for us here at our desks, as we page through Proust monitoring our HFT algos on AAPL and GOOG, plus alot of the young intern girls want to go on a date with this Tyler, this very intelligent, literary Tyler--they all hate Liesman):  

"Famine is not an immediate threat though as India has stockpiles of food (though we know the issue there) but critically this, as we noted here before, places inordinate pressure on central bankers (specifically the PBoC) where its citizens are already facing record high prices for staples like soybeans as the world's markets (devoid of contemplation of the plight of the average citizen - so long as my AAPL stock goes up) anticipate the free-lunch of central bank liquidity while its that non-metaphorical liquidity that could ease pressures on millions."

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 15:33 | 2761524 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

Food prices are going much much higher.



Tue, 09/04/2012 - 16:27 | 2761708 bonderøven-farm ass
bonderøven-farm ass's picture

I hear the McAloo-Tikki is still on the 'Happy Price Menu'....still a bargain for a pea, potato & bread based 'patty'.  Safer than pink goo methinks...

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 14:23 | 2761247 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture


Tue, 09/04/2012 - 14:23 | 2761248 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Here comes the green back to the market...so much for post labor day reality.....same as it ever was.

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 14:24 | 2761252 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

and a turd named AAPL shall lead them

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 15:03 | 2761424 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

We like that "turd named AAPL": it has earned us millions.  

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 15:01 | 2761417 Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture



Seems like 1400 is a 'magic' time of the day...

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 14:23 | 2761250 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

With Brent crude already at $114 and food prices in nose-bleed territory, the Central Banks are in no position to be printing more money. For now, all we will get is "talk".

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 14:25 | 2761253 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Yeah India has stock piles of food....for the connected, the rest of society can go to hell.

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 14:26 | 2761263 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Central planners can't print soybeans & rice?

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 14:27 | 2761264 OldE_Ant
OldE_Ant's picture

Don't worry the FED has already solved the problem of printing, air, water and food.   Just don't pay attention to the fact the air comes from an exhaust pipe, water and food from your toilets.

Hold your nose and feast away.

ENd of liNE

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 14:31 | 2761290 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

The FED doesn't care about people and food, only reflating and putting a floor under equities and the markets.

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 14:33 | 2761301 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Madden-Julian Oscillation, bitchez....

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 15:14 | 2761457 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

As I suspected, this one flew over everyones head.

Quelle surprise....

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 16:17 | 2761646 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Is that where the news cycle oscillates between Madden NFL 2013 sales  #'s and Julian Assange's Ecuadorian Embassy stay?

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 16:18 | 2761658 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Nope, but I will give you B- based solely on effort.....

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 14:33 | 2761302 ThunderingTurd
ThunderingTurd's picture

Anyone notice the massive disparity between small caps and the broad market? 

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 14:44 | 2761341 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The hand-held indexes are just for crowd control so on the way home americans can hear 'Today the DOW was up +50 points' and all therefore must be well in the land.

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 14:53 | 2761380 ThunderingTurd
ThunderingTurd's picture

No doubt about that.  You should check out the equities that comprise the top 10 holdings of IWM.  HAIN (+4.5% today)...I am desperately going to need soy and almond milk at $9.00/gallon (/sarc)

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 15:06 | 2761432 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Preferably on NPR before Terry Gross while driving their BMWs to Key West: "the Dow gained 200 points on speculation that Mario Draghi will print more EURO..."  Gonna be a good night at Sloppy Joe's

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 14:45 | 2761351 walküre
walküre's picture

What "market"?

Not just small caps. Pretty much everything 'cept for AAPL is swirling the drain but market is being propped at this level.

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 14:39 | 2761324 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

The arrogance of the intellectuals in power ruins society because they believe rules are for the lower classes as they know what is best for all.

Dragi is case in point with his no more than 3 year plan. Bernanke is following same path as Dragi (or vice versa). Arrogance blinds the fools to the fact that their effort to save something is broken by the fact they crossed sacred lines (principles) in their effort to save it. They can not save something that they killed!

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 14:43 | 2761339 walküre
walküre's picture

Who cares? McDonald's is opening Vegetarian "Restaurants" in India.

Let 'em eat McDirt! And wash it down with brown sugar water.

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 14:52 | 2761378 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

And the "market" rallys, un fucking believable.

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 14:54 | 2761390 q99x2
q99x2's picture

They could take the time off work to dance, sing, play music, swim in the ocean and practice storytelling. Meditation is native to India and can be used to slow body requirements down to near hibernation levels. The rain eventually will come. Peace on earth the angels sing glory to the newborn king.

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 14:57 | 2761402 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

I can't wait for the pundits and gov't weenies cite Hurricane Issac for the poor "economic numbers" in the coming months.

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 15:12 | 2761433 endicott glacier
endicott glacier's picture

The indian finance minister (P Chidambarm) is pressuring reserve bank of India to cut rates so that marginal folks can buy more cars and take on even more bloated mortgages (there already is over construction at prices that most can't afford) in face of food inflation raging > 10% based on direct orders at G-20 meetings. The reserve bank is officially targeting inflation of 7.5% in face of 5.5-6.5% growth and pressuring govt to control deficit by cutting subsidy on diesel that would push the transporation costs up and inflation up and saying they can't cut rates until inflation is under control. So we have this nice circular logic and the citizes are taking this up their a$$ in terms of affordability. Its inflate or die there bitches as it is in china. Eventually it seems that politicians will win and get rates to go down and cause more speculation and inflation. The drought is just making things interesting...hey but does this affect the sensex? Hell no! it know only one direction an that is up as with the dow here in face of hard fundamentals. India and China seem like punching bags for swizzing money for hedge/mutual funds when things get worse in US and Europe...

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 15:41 | 2761466 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Well we had demand destruction in oil consumption here in the good ol' USA...

We are about to get demand destruction in Asia in the agricultural sector, if you catch my drift...


What the hell.... It's a slow thread here....

I almost pissed myself laughing at this latest version of the "Untergang"....



Note: TOBS = Time of Observation Bias, DMI = Danish Meterological Institute....

Just wait until the shift in the Jet Stream (already 3 degress of lat) results in the Corn Belt transforming into Oklahoma.....

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