Weak Two Year Auction May Be Jackson Hole Harbinger
Moments ago the US Treasury auctioned off the latest monthly batch of 2 Year bonds, this time $35 billion, or toward the higher end of the issuance range, which was a bit of a dud. Pricing at 0.273%, this was a brisk move from July's record low 0.22%, a weakness which was substantiated by the expected pricing of 0.266% even though the When Issued traded at 0.275% coming into the auction, so technically there was no tail. That said, a very modest 9.01% was allotted at the high yield, implying the bulk of the action in the Dutch Auction was below the closing yield. Beneath the headline, the internals were not pretty either, with just 22.3% of the total bond taken down by Indirect bidders, well below the 32.78% TTM average, demanding an increase in both the Direct and Primary take downs, the former taking down 16.08% while the Dealers having to push 54.66% of the entire auction promptly into the tri-party repo market in exchange for cash to be used for much wiser purposes, such as buying Las Vegas REO real estate and converting it into rentals. Was the weakness of the auction a harbinger of disappointment from Jackson Hole - stay tuned for an opinion from Credit Suisse which says precisely this. And while the auction itself may have been unspectacular, there is a very historic aspect to this particular $35 billion bond issue, which we will reveal after market close.