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Weather Blamed For Industrial Production Miss
Industrial production is the latest economic miss, expected to rise from a previously unchanged print, to 0.3%, instead posting another flat print. The reason: blame it on the weather. From the Fed: "Industrial production was unchanged in March for a second month but rose at an annual rate of 5.4 percent in the first quarter of 2012. Manufacturing output declined 0.2 percent in March but jumped 10.4 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter. The gain in manufacturing output in the first quarter was broadly based: Even excluding motor vehicles and parts, which jumped at an annual rate of nearly 40 percent, manufacturing output moved up at an annual rate of 8.3 percent and output for all but a few major industries increased 5 percent or more. In March, production at mines rose 0.2 percent and the output of utilities gained 1.5 percent. For the quarter, however, the output of utilities dropped at an annual rate of 13.8 percent, largely as a result of unseasonably warm temperatures over the past several months, while the output of mining fell 5.4 percent. At 96.6 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production for March was 3.8 percent above its year-earlier level. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry edged down to 78.6 percent, a rate 2.1 percentage points above its level from a year earlier but 1.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972--2011) average." In other words, blaming both cold and hot weather is now a solid excuse for anything that does not go according to the best laid plans of central bankers. Got it.
As the chart below shows, another record hot April, and IP is about to go negative all over again.
And here is an upcoming convergence trade that one can take to the bank:
Chart: Bloomberg and Reuters
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the weather is an agent of chaos, and must be dealt with accordingly.
The rain got in our eyes.....it was horrible!
So Agent Smart, round up Agent 99 and proceed to the Cone of Silence. CHAOS must be destroyed!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1eUIK9CihA
Of course, milder weather SHOULD by any measure mean 'production' was more favorable...but nevermind all that we're a fascist dictatorship we say what we want.
Perhaps too many 'workers' went out to the golf course or tennis courts. If it had rained/snowed they would have gone to work and produced real stuff. Alternatively, they could have done things akin to those described in today's (17 Apr. 2012) Dilbert.com comic strip. [Wally was my hero when I was employed.] Anyone who has followed the Tylers' writings about the Schrodinger economy should enjoy the comic.
It may be to hot to pay taxes today.
I'll remember that excuse when I'm summoned to the IRS inquisition. :)
Meanwhile, gasoline demand is down 55 weeks in a row y/o/y according to mastercard...and that trend looks to continue.
Milli Vanilli
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NwrL9MV6jSk
Don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows. Apologies to Bob Dylan.
Their name is "Rothschild" (House of Red Shield)....and they own the machines.
They will be controlling the transmission....do not adjust your position
Everybody must be out golfing in the nice weather with all the extra coin they have in their pockets in this booming economy.
That was sarcasm by the way for those of you who don't understand sarcasm.. You know who you are.
Data, what's data? The market doesn't understand data, only headlines. Nice juicy government coded word headlines.
It sounds like Obama needs to regulate the weather.....those weather speculators...send the SEC after them...or is it the CFTC....or maybe the weather channel guys....
Actually I think that is the EPA's jurisdiction.
We have just gone over the cliff in order backlogs. My company was busy as hell the first quarter, went on vacation and came back and it is ugly how slow it got. This is much like first quarter 2009 slow. I hear of lots of downsizing in other industries too.
So it's all your fault....vacationing during the nice weather.....slacker
I went to Scotland. It rained. A lot.
Simply amazing how little money can move the markets these days. Once again low volume up and heavy volume down.
Right....so the way I'm seeing it the plan is no QE, just raise stock markets on command and try to chase evil oil speculators around to drop gas prices, which apprently costs $55 million in taxpayer money.
LOL, the weather has been warmer so you would think people would be out more shopping, consuming.
Plenty of vacant store fronts. Some huge malls with their anchor store fronts are vacant.
Even newer ones are 80% vacant and have been 80% vacant for 3 years. The owners still have to pay real estate taxes that have been climbing in the last 3 years.
Those municipalities need more money to fund their rising pension costs and declining revenues.
Add Best Buy to that now. Closing thier stores and adding to the commercial real estate glut.
Maybe they were out more, planting shit in their garden since they can't afford it in the supermarket anymore
The more TPTB speak, the more they convince me that they have no clue what to do and that we are in the abyss. We just haven't hit bottom yet. It's going to be ugly when we do.
Exactly, I think theyre just marching in place and have no idea what to do now. People always telling me about this 'grand masterplan of total world domination' or whatever....WTF this is just a clusterfuk, I really think it all looked good to them on paper and now that theyre here at the end of their plan when they have to 'do something', its not how they planned and they really have no idea what to do now.
Agreed.
No battle plan survives first contact.
TPTB have no idea what do next,and are scrabbling around
like cockroaches after the lights are turned on.
This is not going to be pretty, as their desperation settles in.
Didnt we have weather when Ronald Regan was President, or is this a new phenomeon?
Yes...but the tornadoes were seasonal.
Now they're showing up whenever the overlord is angry at his serfs
If I get this right we've been expanding at a small rate for years. We must be getting close to re-production or is that rehypothecated reproduction. Can you put that into a CDO? Sounds to big to fit.
Is McDonald's counted as industrial production?
It has to be becuaes we have no other production except paper printing!
I'll tell ya, I can't wait for them to start blaming stuff on the coming space alien invasion...
The weather, eh?
Treasury released their "We inherited such a mess from Bush that we were heros in getting the economy back on track!" See link.
US is last in the Cold War derby behind China and Russia. Ironic isn't it?
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/04/17/from-russia-with-love...