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Weekend Rumormill Fails To Gain Traction As French, German And Belgian CDS Hit All Time Wides
While this morning's bout of ridiculous volatility, especially in precious metals, may be briefly over (but certainly not for long) after gold has surged by nearly $100 from overnight lows, the economic weakness persists despite what the futures are saying. As usual European liquidity is at the forefront, with 3M USD Libor rising per usual and every single day for the third straight month in a row, this time from 0.360% to 0.363%, leading to new all time wides in German, French and Belgian CDS to 111 (+3), 201 (+4) and 301 (+6) respectively, which no matter how hard the /ES frontrunning and momentum machines can try, there is little that can be done to dissuade the market that French banks will soon be in need of a full blown bailout.
Also, while we don't know yet how much in PIIGS bonds the EFSF bought last week (TBD shortly), or how much was borrowed from the FRBNY's swap lines, we do know that French banks, notably SocGen and BNP, were once again responsible for the deterioration in the interbank lending market, rising to 0.39% and 0.40%.
As usual the great white hope of the weekend, that the EFSF would be expanded to E2-3 trillion was roundly rejected after German Finance Ministry spokesman Martin Kotthaus told reporters at a regular press conference that the "German government sees no need to expand the EFSF, and reject leveraging the fund." This is not the first time this rumor has been refuted. Which means we expect the FT to come out with a brand spanking new rumor that the, wait for it, EFSF would be expanded, some time before either Europe or the US closes. In the meantime, expect the market to process this latest set of news and drop eventually.
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As markets thrash around and look for a sense of direction it is becoming clear that the plan is to bail out the banks one more time. Except as pointed out below one bank that needs a bail out may be unexpected by many...
why not just let the banks fail and sink? the economy would rebalance itself out.
http://expose2.wordpress.com
And que a 20 point S&P futures rally...
it's totally nutty, disconnected. Asia is a sea of red and Europe a sea of green?
Whut?
Imagine those with inside information..... volatility like this....but it also tells me that the rubber-band could snap anytime now. Too much swinging around and I don't mean the topcallingtroll variety.
ORI
Weird World, Getting Weirder....
Time to gas the shit out of the futures!!! WHEEEEEE
equity markets love it though
french banks are up 8 percent
I am sick of this circus
just crash and be done with it
Ah, all these cynics. Now that PMs went down a little everything is well! The bubble bursted and we will live in a thriving economy happily ever after.
Pssh, who cares about the economy. It's football season WOO!
/sarc off
Will fade, be sold, S&P will drop below 1000 this week! It's all engineered to get the big boys out! And not to forget them month/quarter end bonuses, someone has to collect those, eh?!
+100 (bingo!)
is it an odd even thing as far as the validity of a rumor to the amount of times it is refuted? or maybe it's cumulative?
if odd, even - does odd mean its on or does even mean that?
if cumulative - how many times before its considered a done deal?
but CDS never cared about rumours last few weeks too...so why should it now.......its all about equities....
German Constitutional Court has effectively ruled that any new substantive move towards new or additional funds with whatever initials, must be subject to a referendum. Will never pass. Germans can't do it.
If the French contributed to such a fund, it gets added to their own debt, and bang goes their Triple-A rating, so end of fund. French can't do it
Eurozone Debt:GDP will be around 88% collectively by year-end, with Germany and France both individually already over 80%.
There is no solution to the problem, because the problem is a dilemma, for which there are only painful outcomes.
Hence entirely rational can-kicking, hoping that something may "turn up".
" must be subject to a referendum. Will never pass. "
.... or the Ac'Counting will be "mark to model" !
12:02 Dealers' CDS coverage doesnt' seem to match Greek exposure, and max. amount dealers could collect on Greek CDS is 4.1bln
12:04 Combined Greek sovereign exposure to French banking system trio is 6.6bln
Tyler any ideas what the real exposure from the big three in France is to Greek debt?
Tyler any ideas what the real exposure from the big three in France is to Greek debt?
And how much of it is safely parked already at the ECB (at par) as loan collatoral? I suspect (but have no evidence) that a lot of it has been got rid of in this way.
Not ridiculous at all. Antal Fekete at least has long predicted such an outcome to the twilight of irredeemable debt.
Everyone who has a semi functioning frontal lobe has predicted it. That does not make it unridiculous.
I believe this is frontal lobe funtions combined with hippocampus (memory formation, classifying information, long-term memory)
Plus, have you seen this?! A secret Wall Street, Fed, Treasury, CME, SEC and CFTC surgical procedure has been uncovered!! http://www.monkeyspit.net/sites/brain/
Ireland is printing Punts and preparing to leave the Euro, probably in 6 weeks time
Can you please provide a link for that?
I heard the first rumours a couple of months ago from someone who was involved in the logistics. I dismissed them at the time. But I have heard from separate sources since and it has been whispered in the local media in the past 2 weeks.
http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/shane-ross/shane-ross-false-confidence-will-be-fatal-2823645.html
The Finance Minister denied the rumour when directly asked in Parliament last week
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/state-denies-rumour-it-is-printing-the-punt-again-2886886.html
However, it is now probable that within 6 weeks, the Punt will be re-introduced, along with other countries in the Eurozone bringing back their old currencies.
It adds up, that in the event of a country leaving the Eurozone that there would be a lot of behind the scene, closed doors activities for a number of months to ensure stability on the inevitable day that an announcement is made public.
Wow, that is pretty crazy. All the out-liers will fall off first then.
What is Spain upto? Too quiet ont he Spanish front.
ORI
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/ireland-business-blog-with-lisa-ocarr...
The over / under for the open will be 30 SPX handles.
Any suckers want the under??
where are the periphery CDS (portugal, etc.)?
Fails to gain traction? The FTSE is up 500 and all markets are up. Gold continues to do poorly and was down to 1549.
I love this site but it does get tedious when it refuses to admit it was wrong. Just 3 weeks ago when gold was at 1913 it proclaimed 2500 was a few weeks away. More like 1500!! And don't give me any BS about margin hikes and the rest. All commodities are down.
It would be nice is among the 24/7 flood of the world coming to an end the powers that be could admit when they were flat out WRONG.
http://www.marketwatch.com/
Welcome new guy (KingOfMilwaukee) on your 3rd week here at ZH.
We have seen many shills come and go.
We always see more of you when our PMs get smacked down by coordinated margin hikes near contract expiration.
The upside is you always leave shortly after...hope the Obama "Paid to Post for America" program is covering food expense.
PS You guys should be a little less preDICKtable and create an ID months out so your spam seems a little more authentic.
""hope the Obama "Paid to Post for America" program is covering food expense.""
You do mean SNAP, right?
I've been reading this site for over a year and there were password problems that kept me from posting, you los(er.)
I am Libertarian and my economics are Austrian and I am 100% gold for 3 years. So go f yourself and stop thinking you know anything about me you pos.
wow, achieving royality in Milwaukee must have a pretty low bar...
Of course. Have you ever been to Milwaukee's airport?
lol...yes! (I was being funny btw...well, trying to be funny at least)
Wow...password problems for over a year? Kinda says it all right there...?
YOUR COMMENT:
"I love this site but it does get tedious when it refuses to admit it was wrong. Just 3 weeks ago when gold was at 1913 it proclaimed 2500 was a few weeks away. More like 1500!! And don't give me any BS about margin hikes and the rest. All commodities are down."
THEN THIS:
" I am Libertarian and my economics are Austrian and I am 100% gold for 3 years. So go f yourself and stop thinking you know anything about me you pos."
And yes, we know you...and all the others like you...
Unlike you, who seems to be fearful of any idea that does not fit into your rather small world, I am capable of accepting that ZH was flat out wrong on its prediction of "2500 gold within weeks" and at the same time be quite happy that I have been 100% gold since 2008. I, unlike you, do not feel the need to only think in a one dimensional way to keep myself from needing meds and questioning myself. I have something you do not... conviction.
OMG, I've been having the same password problems too!!!
Where it says "Password: *", do I type "password" -- or just make something up?
I'd really appreciate if Tyler or someone computer savvy would help me out with this one...
KoM
Is it "normal" for gold to move $100.00 up or down in a 4hr time frame?
My poor grammar (not gramma) is well known on this site,
yours seems deliberate, also we don't spell out 'powers that be" we use PTB or TPTB.
I will catch on. I would change things now but I am too busy bashing Keynesians on HuffPo to change it.
What's up with AAPL? Anyone got any news, I would think that with the /es up, apple would be rocketing.. but au contraire mon fraire...
Its just Robo lightening up a bit to load up on some cheap PM`s
I dunno... smells like a lawsuit...
AAPL cut Ipad supply chain orders
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-26/apple-cuts-ipad-supply-chain-orders-jpmorgan.html
people aren't eating them fast enough.
Armageddon - gold down.
Damn, fell asleep after watching football and bunch of beers missing that 1550 au.
Wow, markets are absolutely and totally fake. Grand manipulation extreme.
Fake!?!? get with it! These are price discovering capitalist exchanges vital to our economic balance, prosperity and survival.
Fake?...lol...now if you'll excuse me, I have some real fighting to watch...you know...WWE.
Short term gold is down. Good for us who know a game is more than one half
Again troll posters on this site bashing gold. Probably dont own any, have no clue to value it and dont understand history or fractional leverage of gold claims. Useless to argue with these people. Let them sit in cash. Unfortunately when the shit hits the fan and the currency gets printed into oblivion, these kind of people always look to government to fix the problem and give us dictators or genocidal maniacs.
Since when did this site become a strickly pro-gold site? Gold is merely a barometer of paranoia of which this site has plenty of. I'd suggest you turn some of yours into cash so that you don't end up a hypocrite govenment dependent
Is why China, South Korea, Thailand, Russia, Paulson, Soros etc etc got into it...why central banks are net buyers and why TPTB take turns in trying to crush it???
It's just a big misunderstanding BNP chief Pérebeau said: we can mark to model if we want to, it's in our culture. You fools lack culture.
http://www.challenges.fr/actualite/finance-et-marche/20110908.CHA4063/michel-pebereau-dissipons-ce-malentendu-fatal-aux-banques.html
Gold will be at or above $2k before year end..................
Don't believe me, ask JPM.
Gotta get the Defationary crap out of the way first.(or start printing like fools to KTC one more time to salvage it).
Crank up the presses.
No matter, the silver inventory of Germany largest dealer (proaurum) is now almost wiped out. Even no Maples anylonger.
DAX up 4% Why not after all Germany will have to eventually bail out the entire EU or ... let it sink.... Its all good, no wonder the DAX is zooming. Makes sense.
How long before equities OD on hopium? Apparently it still gets em high.
Looks like nerves are very frayed out there.
Heads Up Tyler,
Something you might have suspected, but couldn't put your finger on :)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/8780075/The-great-euro-swindle.html
Enjoy,
PS: The parallel of the Eurosceptics to the Tea Party/GOP is delicious :))))))))
Poor John Paulson. The only position he has that was up is taking a beating. Gotta figure he is losing assets faster than Greece.
Faber is right, for gold, the price will go up now, as it rebounds quite sharply, though not higher than 1800 in November, for a few months till March 2012, or so when it will fall again back to 1600. For silver, on other hand, the corridor till Q2 2012 is pretty flat- 25-32 USD- but then it may start moving to reach 80-100USD. At least that is what the charts say.
Gold will however take long time to reach above 2000 USD.
Silver went to 26 on Monday, amazing! Exactly where it was predicted to land in this time in this March prediction chart(25-32USD corridor in H2 2011).:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=40#p31020
and gold went to 1550! fantastic: Again, exactly where it was expected to be in this April prediction ( which predicted also the bubble-well I expected it to be there in November) - down to 1500-1600 in November 2011.And I expected bubble and crash in October- it happened in September..
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=220#p32176
Obviously another ZeroHedge satisfied customer. Clip below.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aC19fEqR5bA
Just kidding:)
Can anyone tell me why a greek default automatically means Greek exit from the EZ? Defaulting on debt and staying in the EZ would really be a good outcome for the Greeks, they could use any money left to buy back outstanding bonds at market prices and lower their current debt burdens
Because it's not about the greeks, it's about the germans and french banks. The main reason the EZ let greece in was so they could borrow and buy german shit. Now they can't do that, and they are about to screw over the german banks. BIG TIME. So no EZ for them!!! They won't have the economy required for membership. The EZ just doesn't let anyone in the club.....
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