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Weekly Bull/Bear Recap: New Year’s ‘12 Edition
Submitted by Rodrigo Serrano Of Rational Capitalist Speculator
Weekly Bull/Bear Recap: New Year’s ‘12 Edition
+ U.S. ISM manufacturing logs its best result since June; led by New Orders, Production, and Employment. Auto demand remains strong and exports revert back above the 50 mark.
+ Confidence is at its best level since June, according to Gallup Poll. It’s at its best level since July, according to the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index. Why?…
+ …The labor market is markedly improving as per both the ADP and BLS job reports, which turn in readings of +325K and +200K jobs created respectively; the unemployment rate falls to the lowest in almost 3 years at 8.5%. Both results are better than expectations. Jobless claims plunge 15K and the 4-week average falls to the lowest in over 3 years.
+ The Association of American Railroads reports that rail traffic picked up in December. From the looks of the graph, it looks like the recovery is actually gaining steam.
+ The European Service PMI report turns in a better than expected result (indicating stabilization), while German Unemployment falls to a record low for unified Germany. The bears state that a major recession will cause a flareup in the debt crisis. These data points, as well as loosening monetary policy in the quarters ahead due to falling inflation, suggest that both recession and the debt crisis will be contained and will surprise many.
+ Any synchronized global slowdown will be shallow, surprising investors to the upside. China’s service PMI shows continued growth in its domestic economy, producing a reading of 52.5 and unchanged from November; while the country’s official manufacturing PMI rebounds to 50.3 in December from 49.0. Whisper numbers for inflation are 4% in December = loosening monetary policy. Meanwhile, UK manufacturing PMI data increases to 49.6 from 47.7 and is just a smidgen below the 50 mark, the demarcation between expansion vs. contraction; demand increased from Germany and China according to the report. UK services PMI reports its strongest result in 5 months, rising to 54.0 in December from 52.1.
Bear
- Greece is in a depression and a debt trap. Falling revenue, due to austerity measures, is complicating the slated EUR130 billion bailout. It will have to be larger, which aggravates an already delicate political situation. Spain’s government deficit may be larger than 8%; to which the government responds, “the beatings will continue until moral improves.” Good luck slashing the size of the government in a social welfare state without serious unrest. Hungary is on the precipice and has requested help from the IMF, again. Italian and Spanish 10-yr yields are marching higher again, while French 10-year OATs fall in value for 8 consecutive days. Sovereign bond markets aren’t drinking the equity hopium.
- While the bulls focus on lagging indicators, such as the unemployment rate (btw, Eurozone’s unemployment rate stays stuck at a record 10.3%), let’s focus on some leading indicators shall we? German factory orders plunge 4.8% MoM in November, while October’s result was revised down from +5.2% to +5.0%. Factory orders in Germany have plunged more than 8% in the past 5 months. This data point signals a sharp slowdown on tap in Q1. Here’s a coincident indicator, “Confidence in Euro Region at Two-Year Low as German Orders Slide.” Bullish news from the UK? Ok, here’s an offset: “UK car sales fall to lowest since 1994.”
- The key risk to China’s slow-landing thesis continues to lurk. Chinese home prices fall for the 4th consecutive month in December. Premier Wen Jiabao states the obvious, China’s in a stagflationary dilemma. No substantial loosening is coming. Furthermore, falling housing prices are morphing into a political crisis for the communist country.
- The ECRI’s leading indicator growth rate has broken through support of a narrow 7-week range, falling to -8.2 from -7.6. Recession is knock knock knocking on heav…the U.S.’s door.
- America’s debt to GDP ratio surpasses 100%. Increased interest expense on this debt smothers investment in real economic growth, falling potential GDP, and a loss of confidence. Politicians will revert to money printing, which will lead to high long-term inflation and a lower standard of living for all.
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+ …The labor market is markedly improving as per both the ADP and BLS job reports, which turn in readings of +325K and +200K jobs created respectively; the unemployment rate falls to the lowest in almost 3 years at 8.5%. Both results are better than expectations. Jobless claims plunge 15K and the 4-week average falls to the lowest in over 3 years.?????
OK, civilian employment to population is at the same level as Carter / Early Reagan. Every President has had a rally in this ratio, except Obama.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/01/06/unemployment-actually-rose-in-december-nsa-dont-shoot-the-messenger/
Will be have his rally in 2012? I don't think it will be like the one experienced by Reagan, Clinton or even Bush.
I was beginning to worry about my new uploaded video. It was stuck at 303 views for days. It finally updated and was First embedded on – joerogan.net .
I'm just the messenger folks, in cooperation with FOX news[sarc].
Creepy Rick Santorum Takes Dead Offspring Home to Show Childrenhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FV4yLwG6cgg
We can have the first medical doctor president ever. Vote for Dr Ron Paul!
I was at a red light in Boise the other day.
At a red light in Boise...It was a two lane road.
The car in front of me had a Ron Paul 2012 sticker.
So did the car in front of him.
So did the car next to him.
So did the car next to me.
And so did I.
Winning.
http://www.dailypaul.com/201005/at-a-red-light-in-boise
The Ron Paul Crew just has to overwhelm the Octogenarians and they'll Win.
Thank God 75% of the baby boomer's? will be dead in about 15 years.
Jay Carney Folk is the press secretary of the United States, one of the most powerful voices in the country. You can't make this stuff up folks.
Can someone here please straiten me out?
Is every one of those tail sections of the new Boeing Dreamliner Made in China?
Please someone tell me this is not true.
Can I give Youtube a $10 dollar donation in gratitude for it being there for me?
Check this out
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3sNOtqqqyw
All that matters is the next Bankster intervention.
This is bullish :
A Declaration
Whereas, on the 14th of December, 2011, the House of Representatives of these United States voted, in the form of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012, in favor of indefinite military detention, without charges, of American citizens on American soil, without due process of law, at the discretion of the government alone;
Whereas, on the 15th of December, 2011, the Senate of these United States voted in favor of the same bill;
Whereas, on the 31st of December, the President of these United States signed the same bill into law;
Whereas, the proscription against the use of military force to police the populous has been an essential feature of American civic life and civic liberty since the arrival of our civilization upon this continent;
Whereas, the wanton violation of this proscription was one of the chief causes of the separation of the American people from their government in Great Britain;
Whereas, the Constitution so chartering the government of these United States, in Article III Section III, states that “No Person shall be convicted of Treason unless on the Testimony of two Witnesses to the same overt Act, or on Confession in open Court.”
Whereas, the Constitution so chartering the government of these United States, in the Fifth Amendment, states that no person shall be “deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law”;
Whereas, the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the President of these United States have disregarded the plain text of the Constitution;
Whereas, in openly disregarding its founding document, the government of these United States has lost any semblance of legitimacy;
Whereas, the use of such draconian measures has been an essential feature of the enforcement of tyranny by every totalitarian governments of the 20th century;
Whereas, the use of such draconian measures is carefully calculated to quash all political dissent amongst a captive people;
Whereas, the codification of such draconian measures effectively nullifies all civil liberties the people may hope to hold;
And whereas, the codification of such draconian measures is an act of war against the populous at large; Therefore, be it declared that a STATE OF WAR formally exists between the Government of these United States and the People of these United States, perpetrated by that Government against the People.
We, the People of these United States, declare any and all attempts to enforce the provisions of the NDAA to be unlawful, void, and of no force.
We declare ALL WHO voted in favor of the NDAA, and ALL WHO attempt to enforce the NDAA to be traitors to these United States, punishable under law.
We SHALL DISOBEY, APPREHEND, OR RESIST WITH FORCE, at our discretion, any person who attempts to enforce the provisions of the NDAA.
We SHALL NOT aggress against any Federal, State or local government employee who shall not attempt to enforce or aid and abet the enforcement of the NDAA, they being as trapped as the rest of the populous.
Such STATE OF WAR shall continue until the NDAA is stricken from the code of law, and all who had hand in the NDAA are removed from positions of power.
I gave you the first +1 on this. Most of America does not understand what is going on.
Thank You for having the balls to post it as you did. We have a problem America.
This has started with the Patriot Act, Homeland Security and a government that does not repect our heritage.
Just like the Soldier who told off the NYPD, (who has shown they do not respect the laws on the books), you have done so.
Freedom of Speech is a Right. Not a privilage. Right to privacy is a right. Right to object to the status quo is a right.
We still live in America.
Somebody needs to tell the government that we have a Bill of Rights and Constitution they are sworn to uphold.
Or else, one day the military who has sacrificed over 3,000 lives to defend these rights might just object to "the Police State" some want.
What he said! BITCHEZ!!
Until you are willing to pick up a gun and stand a post against this Bullshit the Government keeps flooding the Law Books with.. it will continue! dont look at me or anyone else.. until YOU! are ready to fight for YOUR Rights! NOTHING!! will change!!
The Liberal Democrat! Looks a LOT Like Bush!! dont he? SAY!!!!! IT!!!!!!!!!
Until people realize the truth.. that their is NO Differnece between Team Red and Team Blue! at least when it comes to them fucking US over!!!
then we will all suffer becuase of the stupid people!
"O" Look! and anti-abortion sign!! hurry!
Missed a few zingers on that list. Like plunging German factory orders (Oops sorry i see it there). And Alcoa's pre-announcment guiding down 80%, shutting plants and reducing smelting ops 12%
Shorted S&P today....will likely have to weather a smallish rally early next week. After that, methinks we'll see a nice 'little correction'....
One again with the bull/bear schitzo. You can't have it both ways, the real economy doesn't work that way. It is so easy to shoot a million holes in every bull point, it isn't even trying. The ISM surveys show product being produced that nobody wants to buy, maybe the FED and the US gov are buying products to nowhere, hell its a lot easier than a bridge to nowhere. America has lost so much of its manufacturing that a large order to one company can skew the ISM index by a few percentage points. UNEMPLOYMENT FELL!!! That whopper makes mother goose look like a book of historical fact. A global slowdown will be shallow? What like 2008 where nothing outside the stock market has improved. I guess we will continue the schitzo market that prices in a global depression and subsequent recovery every few weeks. I guess record length unemployment, a labor force the size of 1978 with more than 80 million people added since then, almost 50 million people on food stamps, more than 50% of jobs below $10 an hour, and double digit real infation is uber bullish for the economy. If this is an economy on the mend and 12% or so away from all time stock market highs, I can't wait to see what Obama 2012-2016 looks like. 150 million+ on food stamps, $15 a gallon gas, 1874 labor participation rate wth 0% unemployment, and Dow 30k?
Can´t have it both ways? Of course you can.
The world economy is a very complex system and you are bound to get simultanious trends pointing in both directions.
BULLISH
Netflix users streamed 2 billion hours of crappy re run TV shows.