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Weekly Recap And Key Events In The Coming Week

Tyler Durden's picture




 

By way of Goldman Sachs

The week past was one of improving sentiment for risky assets. The positive stream of data surprises out of the US continued with a sharp drop in initial jobless claims. The less positive Philly Fed print did not shake markets to a substantial extent. Optimism in Eurozone extended as well with the newsflow over the Greek PSI. Up until Friday (January 20) it appeared increasingly likely that an agreement could be imminent. However, on Saturday talks came once again to a stalemate due to ongoing disagreement over the level of sustainable coupons for the new Greek bonds.
This implies that the PSI deal will not be ready for approval during the European finance ministers meeting, starting on Monday. The market will look for any signal on the pace of discussions over the ESM pre-funding details and the fiscal compact. Flash PMIs in the Eurozone and the IFO will also be key to watch given market fears over the activity impact of tight fiscal policy linked to the Eurozone fiscal crisis.

Attention will likely shift to the US this week. Q4 GDP will likely exceed 3% mostly due to one-off drivers and less so due a genuine pick-up in final demand in our view. The FOMC statement and press conference are unlikely to lead to a change in US monetary policy. However, we will be focusing on the publication of the FOMC participants’ views of appropriate policy (specifically the path for the federal funds rate and guidance for the size of the balance sheet going forward). In addition, President Obama will give his State of the Union speech Tuesday night.

Monday 23rd January:

Ecofin Meeting: The Greek PSI, the ESM pre-funding schedule will be among other issues in the agenda.

Also Interesting: Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (Jan), Israel Monetary Policy Meeting (no change).

Tuesday 24th January:

Turkey Monetary Policy Meeting: We do not expect a change in the base rate but it will be interesting to assess the current CBRT thoughts on ongoing policy initiatives.

Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting: In response to currency risks, NBH is widely expected to raise interest rates by 50bp to 7.50%.

Euro-zone Flash Composite PMI (Jan): Consensus expects a print of 48.5, up from 48.3 in December.

Also Interesting: US Presidential State of the Union address, Japan CB Meeting, India CB Meeting, Russia IP.

Wednesday 25th January:

Germany Ifo (Jan): Consensus expects an improvement of the indicator to 107.5 after 107.2 in December.

UK GDP (Q4): We expect the GDP to fall by 0.2%qoq, below consensus of -0.1%, down from 0.6% in September.

FOMC Meeting: We expect no change, in line with consensus but, the Fed’s own forecasts for the Fed Funds rate will be published. There will be a press conference as well.

Also Interesting: BOE Minutes, Korea Q4 GDP, Singapore CPI, Thailand CB Meeting, Australia CPI.

Thursday 26th January:

US Durable Goods Orders (Dec): Consensus expects 2.0%mom after 3.7% in November.

US Initial Jobless Claims: After some big swings in recent readings, there will be more focus on these numbers than usual.

Also interesting: New Zealand Central Bank Meeting, Brazil COPOM Minutes (Jan).

Friday 27th January:

US GDP (Q4): We expect 3.2%qoq ann vs. consensus of 3.0% after 1.8% in Q3.

Also Interesting: Poland GDP and Swiss Kof survey.

 

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Sun, 01/22/2012 - 21:24 | 2087307 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

European Union foreign ministers are expected to announce a phased ban on the purchase of oil from Iran at a meeting on Monday in Brussels.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16674660


Sun, 01/22/2012 - 22:29 | 2087439 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

BIG deal.

Mon, 01/23/2012 - 00:57 | 2087738 chump666
chump666's picture

Fingers cross those crazy Europeans do this and China (20%) juiced on Iran oil then sells a ton of EUR and EZ debt as payback.  Throw some volatility into this momo market.

Sweat the Germans and French, timed with the Hungry default/exit from the EU.  Greek 'talks' collapse once and fall etc et etc.

The pain trade awaits.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 21:59 | 2087308 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

second, BiCheZ!!!

re tom's post~~the EU sataying away from iran's oil:  this is not surpriZing to me

i may be mistaken (again) but this whole episode, with prez0's "signing" had an aspect of "treaty" to it, which i tried to express at that time

i thought the situ had a somewhat stable potential if people would take a step back from that hormuz weapons show and just let russia and china hang with iran for trading & resource development & marketing purposes

after all, they didn't do much more than stand by and hold their noses over north africa, especially libya, and i think we may be looking at the international diplomatic quid pro quo here

now we see india joining, too, and these nations appear to be progressing toward a non-US dollar settlement currency.  prob'ly won't be the euro, huh?  well, we shall hafta see how that banking thing goes, but it looks as if the EU is gonna ratify the "iran's oil ain't coming here" part of the "agreement"

i can't believe that the "banking" aspects aren't pretty well agreed upon, too, but bilary won't return my calls

again

iran is in 0PEC too!  damn her!

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 21:48 | 2087333 chump666
chump666's picture

You know the funny thing is that the Jan meltup (equities) came in from the PMIs that were released early Jan (money printing wasn't the reason, EUR went bid).  From China and Europe.  All fudged.  Why?  Australia's PMI comes out (a few hrs back) and it's on the money - crappy.  Australia is the bellwether for a China slowdown.  Thats the market cue.

and the AUD hits 1.05...must be killing the Australian retail sector.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 21:36 | 2087322 chump666
chump666's picture

Goldman is about to sell this market.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 21:46 | 2087331 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

And when is Dancing With the Amazing Surviving Bachelor Toddlers on?

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 21:50 | 2087337 hairball48
hairball48's picture

Forgive me since I'm new to ZH, but I don't believe anything coming from banksters like  Goldman Sachs. Why should I?

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 21:55 | 2087348 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Okay, great. You've passed the first test. Now, tell us, who is the only choice for the coming election?

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 22:01 | 2087371 hairball48
hairball48's picture

Ron Paul would be my only choice, but I don't see him being on the ballot, unless he runs as a 3rd party candidate.

I like Shadow Stats for information. And only buy gold and silver metal, no paper. And of course I'm stocking up on non perishables and ammo as well :)

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 22:56 | 2087475 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

You passed. Welcome aboard!

Mon, 01/23/2012 - 00:36 | 2087661 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

He's still on waivers...first choice but he wont be on the ballot? I suppose he's first choice but unelectable too...

Tyler Durden: All right, if the applicant is young, tell him he's too young. Old, too old. Fat, too fat. If the applicant then waits for three days without food, shelter, or encouragement he may then enter and begin his training.

You are blind and without Faith. Believe he can do it and say it with conviction. Because if you don't believe it no one around you will either.

Waivers boys... Leave him on the porch for now...

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 21:53 | 2087347 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Spoiler alert on State of the Union address.

Obama: Let me be clear, we're moving in the right direction. Look, the economy is improving, unemployment is going down. Everything bad is the Republicans' fault. And just for old time's sake, pass this bill.

 

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 22:12 | 2087418 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

....and I will make everything right.  Didn't I promise to make it snow in the deserts of the world?

http://www.9news.com/news/article/243326/318/Storm-brings-snow-to-Sahara-Desert-

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 22:23 | 2087431 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

wait till the half-time of the stupor bowl when they interrupt everything to put him on so he can announce the new international banking agreement and tell us about our new international currency!

they'll show old pepsi "teach the world to sing" commercials w/ a video overdubs of helis doing the airdrops and maybe some currency cannons w/ people cavorting as if in a fountain!  then, maddonna will come on, resplendent youth in a bi-metal cone bra, and sing her new: CurrencyMalfunction@The Half-timeShow

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 22:33 | 2087444 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Don't forget all the gratuitous shots of uniformed service members, followed by a release of nerve agent from a cannister labelled "Made in Iran."

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 22:58 | 2087479 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Not to split hairs, but it was Coke that had the "teach the world to sing" commercials.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 23:20 | 2087516 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

rightUR! 

is the bi-metallic bra ok?

wait till you hear the song, dawg!

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 23:43 | 2087548 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Love the bi-metallic bra, can't wait to hear the song!

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 22:34 | 2087446 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

and this is Big Deal Number 2.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 22:16 | 2087423 ekm
ekm's picture

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAh,

Nothing matter. As long as Plunge Protection Team has spare cash, market will not tank. Once they run out of cash or markets panic so much as to oversell PPT's cash capability, then the SP=1100 bottom that PPT has chosen will be shattered.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 22:38 | 2087450 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

the question given the explosion higher right out of the gates this year is "once the sell off hits do you buy the dip"? i say yes. these "macro events" are very powerful incentives for incumbents "devoid of that problem"...General Electric comes to mind.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 23:14 | 2087505 ekm
ekm's picture

It depends.

Buying the dip means cash is available. The only way cash would be available is if suckers like mutual funds and retail investors bought into the rally. Seeing the very low volumes, I don't think trading desks of big banks which are the trading desks for PPT have any money left or will make any money from selling into the rally, unless new money is made available by Big 4 of PPT (fed chairman, treasury sec, cftc charirman and SEC chairman). But they may end up owning all the market and nobody to lure any longer. I don't know, we may be there, we may not be there. I have a feeling PPT has no more money right now. Just a feeling.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 22:43 | 2087460 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I firmly believe a series of very dramatic global events are coming fast upon us. Rule number to be a "Power that be" is not to wait around for said event to occur before acting but acting PROACTIVELY. I think blow ups in Iran and Pakistan will be right behind any macro meltdown of Europe and the states of emergency that would obviously result from it. All eyes not just on Washington DC...all eyes on it for the foreeable future as well...and the election that is coming with it of course.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 23:17 | 2087510 ekm
ekm's picture

Election is very misleading. I don't think it has any bearing at all. The crash of 2008 happened right before the election and handed the victory to Obama. McCain was ahead in polls right before the crash. After the crash, Obama took off.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 23:19 | 2087514 ekm
ekm's picture

It impossible to forecast what the "poweres to  be would do". All wall street expected the Fed to bail out Lehman but it didn't happen.

Right now, all wall street is expecting QEn ( or as I like to call it Cocainated Easing - MY COPYRIGHT). That's where the money comes from. If they don't get it soon, wall street will run out of money in my opinion, since the former suckers are buying into this rally.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 23:21 | 2087517 ekm
ekm's picture

CORRECTION

... since former suckers are NOT buying into this rally...

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 23:40 | 2087542 roy10
roy10's picture

The ESM and fiscal compact are DOA. Politicians are not going to do a thing when the ECB and the markets are doing the job for them. We've seen this here in the US and we'll definitely see this in Europe. Absent pressure from the market, you can forget about any dramatic measures from politicians.

Expect the ecofin meeting to get nothing done.

Sun, 01/22/2012 - 23:50 | 2087555 TheCanimal
TheCanimal's picture

I do not trust the regulators, the front running HFT's nor the investment banks.  Jon Corzine stole a billion dollars and is still walking the streets.  I'll stay in cash.

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