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Well, At Least One Thing Made Sense Today...
Via Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors
The trading in JEF actually at least made some sense. There was a story about a big potential exposure to Europe. Given what happened to MF global (going from 3.55 to 0.28 in just over a week), you could understand why investors were nervous. Jefferies is in the same size bracket as MF Global (small enough to fail) and similarly rated BBB/Baa2. Investors decided to sell first and ask questions and focus on details. The automatic halts kicked in due to price moves. That gave the company some time to respond. In the end, the company did a decent job, showing that i) they were running small net exposures ii) they weren't relying on CDS when they calculated their net exposures, and iii) the numbers were in line with their market making activity - basically that this was largely inventory from market making and primary dealing activity in European bond markets - and not a big outright risk bet. I think they could have provided more details, but they did a decent job, and once the market had time to think about it, and digest the information, the stock responded well and was even briefly positive on the day.
Greece, is another story. No referendum is viewed as good. Any government or no government is viewed as positive. Greek bonds continued to sell off. The IIF continued to work on defining a haircut. I don't think that what is good for Greece is good for the EU or vice-versa and this issue will be back. The issue seems to have been pushed off until the next installment, which I guess is good, but it all still seems very weird and tenuous at best.
The ECB rate cut finally came. More will likely come as they try to drive down cost of funds across the board. French 2 year notes actually responded well. That is a good sign for potential EFSF issues. Italian 2 year did pretty well, but Spanish 2 year seemed to benefit less than you would want to see. It is hard to tell what impact ECB buying had - but at least it seems like Draghi got the idea to co-ordinate a rate cut with ECB purchases.
I expect more optimistic messages and new lending programs to come out of the G-20 talks, but so does everyone, so who knows what it will do.
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Big news out of Greece... a change of puppets :
Papandreou to Resign If He Wins Confidence Vote
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45149496
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou has struck a deal with ministers to step down and hand power to a negotiated coalition government if they help him win a confidence vote on Friday, government sources with knowledge of a cabinet meeting said.
Papandreou to Resign If He Wins Confidence Vote
Strange world.
Yep, couldn't possibly get more moronic ...i'll top myself if you save me first ...you can't write fiction this stupid but this is real and these are people supposed to lead a country!
Must be about pride. If he would resign after vote of confidence, he would feel that it would be with dignity and on his own terms. Then, he could ride into the sunset to a university post somewhere in the U.S.A.
...he could ride into the sunset...
and plock some floss: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smZA9Jv3qH0
Or, he could be doing what he did hours before when the opposition said he lied and blackmailed and said he would resign when he didn't. He may be trying to get them to vote this way and then say well let the people decided and still not resign. If this is so important why isn't he coming out on television saying he will resign after this "positive" vote of confidence. Who is the one saying he will do that, an opposition party member or one of his own party members. Also I had to read this on other sites to make sure the title was correct, If they vote and give him confidence in his leadership he resigns but if the vote doesn't go that way and they don't believe in his leadership he stays? Talk about the looking glass, what is up is down and what is black is white. The Greek leadership or a big chunk of it is bought and paid for by the international bankers and EU countries and they are being told to sell their country down the river in order to keep the elite banks and countries from going down and feeling massive pain.
Like the "Memphis 3" ... Plead guilty to get out of jail.
Where do you get that deal? If one or all of our US politicians would resign and not to do anything ever again, it might be worth it.
whaday talkin' about? this is pure political genius. he wins, he resigns. they call him back because they need him. clearly he reflects well on Harvard here.
Kinda like I'll blow you but you have to cut your dick off first
I am confused. What happens if he loses the confidence vote?
If he wins, it looks like the people would be confident in his leadership?
This is a mad gone world, regardless.
What happens if he loses the confidence vote?
He gets attached to his post.
if he loses the obvious action i suppose is to not resign and cling on by his finegrnails
back to Goldman where he can make a fortune throwing "the country that he loves" under the bus.
Don't you know. Lloyd takes his tax payer 100 million dallar bonus and put it his fuel fund for his yacht. A slush fund, if you will.
Then off to his Flat in France where he could, but stays away now, from the Greek Ruins. He heard that he pissed the Greeks off .
JEF: So, no term repos to fund their exposure to Euro sovreigns?
M'kay.
Check out the dumpage for JEF shares in the 2nd week of April. Wonder who that was?
Edit- Looks like it was caused by a major offering/dilution. Just mining investors!
And what did the rate cut do for those 200% Greek one years?
exactly Mr. Head of the King. Should Germany have to keep paying they just made it more expensive by being..."threatening." We'll have to talk to the Burgher-meisters about this turn of events. We'll get back to you shortly.
I expect more optimistic messages and new lending programs ...
Christmas time!
what's good today, is bad in a few hours and same is in reverse
Do his other party poobahs actually trust him to "step down" on the other side of the vote?
If he doesn't the bankers will order in the panzers.
Nice
No talk about US, France and the IMF attempting to persuade Germany to amend the ECB charter?
Thats the big story if true.
He was for it before he was against it...
What's confusing? Americans don't have a monopoly on double speak
When people have to keep creditors at bay and they have no money....what do they resort to?
Fancy talking. There's aways some perfectly reasonable explanation, but there's never any actual money produced.
I think in Greece we're seeing what happens when we really have no intention to repay, but it would simply be otrageous for anyone to say so
I'm too stupid to understand why Germany with it's humongous debt is in driver sit, they all are drunk and if you had one beer less doesn't make you sober. And nobody ever answered my question - where they are borrowing money from?
"The ECB rate cut finally came. More will likely come as they try to drive down cost of funds across the board. French 2 year notes actually responded well."
sounds so easy a caveman can do it. if they just cut rates to zero all problems will be magically solved just like in benamerika
L0L!!! of course rate cut in ECB
i actually read several pieces about how the new super mario wouldn't cut rates
funny!
Nothing about AIG today tyler?
there is a kind of deafening silence today. lack of news on "Kick the Caan down the road" day.
Look guys, this is great analysis. Peter and Bruce have forgotten more about bonds than I will ever know, but we've had a paradigm shift. We are no longer pricing OFF the risk free (whatever the hell that might mean), we are pricing IN months to default.
Draghi should be finding some serious collateral for bonds (preferably PMs) or negotiating terms for leaving/getting kicked out of the EU. This long goodbye is sickening and dangerous. Something big will break soon. Then what?
the standing orders are all the same: "no gold as collateral." everything else is okay. indeed...encouraged!
OT but the Sun just cut an x-flare loose
X-FLARE: Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected an X2-class solar flare. The source is huge sunspot AR1339, described below.
http://www.spaceweather.com/
Seconds
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28z5aTiN4UI
The one year bond spread looks sexy eh?
They want you to sing along.. say goodbye, say goodbye.. say goodbye
Chart comparing accuracy of Silver price predictions over 7,5 months (included both May and September peaks and drops) and extension of prediction for 1 month:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&start=820#p34938
All this pathetic drama around greece doesn't change anything. The south of europe and belgium is not competitive and is insolvent or close to that. Italy needs alone in 2012 400 billion euro. Who will lend them this amount of money? If Greece does not vote, wtf, they will simply not apply the austerity. This ship allready hit the iceberg. Some day, it will sink.
there was talk of a "two speed" europe a while back. what the status of that approach in here?
I wouldn't expect anything to make sense, tomorrow. One in a row is not a winning streak.
http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/11/02/the-daily-climb-2/
Now it makes sense. The criminal parliament will vote the latest package through, but to avoid being overthrown and hung for treason by an enraged populous they sacrifice GAP and call for elections in 3-6 months.
October 28 was a turning point, the elite saw that they were days away from being swept away. And they made sure the military doesn't intervene to save Greece by getting rid of their leadership.
They hope the Greek people don't see through this ruse, and stick to plain protests instead of revolution.
there's not much "ruse" in "Germany has threatened to wipe us off the map but didn't today." I wish the next Greek PM...should there be one..good luck!
Fade ZH! Seriously, can you guys be more wrong on a daily basis? If you put out a big negative blog, everyone should just go long! Like JPM said, Mkt can stay irrational, longer then you can stay solvent. Stick to main stories!
Add clown man cramer to list as well. It seems like they all follow the same script. Last year bac sent out a prediction the markets were about to drop 25%--one week before qe2...yep! Newsletters, blogs, talking heads, cramer, the jpm's, gs, bac's,etc.... they are all reading from the same script.
so glad you finally figured it out! good luck on actually being that way however...
I say bullshit! This rigged piece of shit stock took off like a racehorse right at 10:00am along with the rest of this bullshit stockmarket.
Joe Kernan can go fuck himself. If he gives Sylvia any more shit about actually having to eat a hat I'm going to demand that that manchild fuckstain POS be fired and deported to Dachau.
That popping sound you hear is Europe pulling an astounding, amazing, nay, miraculous save right out of their ASS...
Why, it will be enough to make you think, "was it... all planned????? Thesis, antithesis, synthesis?
That ploppig sound you'll be hearing next is Goidman and the rest of the US as it hits the turd tornado bowl.
Those bangs you'll hear next are the Israelis bombing the shit out of everyone around them as they decide that suicide bombing isn't something individuals should do, it's the prerogative of entire nations.
the elite in the EU will never allow a greek referendum vote to take place because they realize the populace will vote against it. the resulting defaults and the defaults of other countries that follow, will likely collapse the entire banking system and take down a few governemtns along with the entire eu, which would be bad news for those social engineering elites. the second and more preferable option is to take the public out of the decision and force austerity on greece. then you go about saving the banks, governments and the eu by massively printing currency and hyper inflate your way out of the mess. sure, in the end your screwed either way, but by kicking the can down the road you get to pretend your'e doing something smart in the meantime. i think the markets think are catching a wiff of the print scenario happening.
Well, futures are eerily quiet.
Unbelievable:
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/11/michael-hudson-on-the-showdown-in-greece.html#comment-513385
A lot makes sense: Chris Martenson announced a high-level alert of sorts yesterday. Every time he does this, the market melts-up at least 10%.
We've got another 8% in the bag then. Count on it. It makes sense every time; every time Chris sends out an alert he is just literally mirroring everyone elses same fears in the entire market place: which means more capitulation from shorts, more buys from the momos, and another huge melt-up in the works. When Chris goes a few months without any alerts: SELL EVERYTHING.
And there you go. Things that make sense.
Oh My
Mia the Bloomberg Asia commentatorette seems particularly pleased that the Greek Referendum(b) was canelled
http://oi41.tinypic.com/j9vhnr.jpg