This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Well Played Mr. Papandreou

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

Well played Mr. Papandreou

It was almost funny how quiet he was at the summit. It seems like he sat back, got the best deal he possibly could for Greece and now Greece can decide if it is good enough.

The IIF and their NPV calculations. The ECB and their paid in full demands. The EU and their austerity and controls and demands over which Greek assets can be sold to whom? Debt to GDP of 120% by 2020.

How about debt to GDP of 10% by year end?  How about some nice asset sales to China at premium prices not only to get some immediate funds but to develop a nice long term relationships with deep pockets and a great trade partner.  Not sure where IMF fits in.

All along I have argued it was Greece's choice to default or not and that it was in their best interest to do it. He played it far better than I could have. He holds the cards. He is putting his people and national interest above Europe.  Merkozy must be in a panic.

This may just be a ploy to get a better deal, but I think it is great for Greece.  It's horrible for the bailout as every other nation in trouble may take similar steps.

I would be very careful buying Italian CDS as they could redenominate their bonds in LIRE and it wouldn't be a Credit Event (our reading of the doc is that G-8 nations have that right - but trying to confirm)

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Tue, 11/01/2011 - 07:53 | 1831155 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Catastrophic. The entirety of these clowns thumbed their nose at the US. This is also known as "the stupid side of the brain." Greece will now collapse. Goodbye. Breathtaking.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:47 | 1831382 fightthepower
fightthepower's picture

Catastrophic?  Sounds like a smart decision to me.  The best thing Greece can do is to to default and leave the Euro.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:57 | 1831463 luciusfargo
luciusfargo's picture

Yep, reintroduce the drachma, devalue it into oblivian and let the spendthrift Greeks feel true austerity. I can't wait to watch as these morons realize they've got no one to blame but themsleves. Never pay taxes then act surprised when your government runs out of money... fucking mollusks, the lot of 'em.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 12:36 | 1832808 zenbones
zenbones's picture

Get out while you can.  It might hurt at first but in the long run you will better off.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 07:54 | 1831158 Fips_OnTheSpot
Fips_OnTheSpot's picture

Confidence vote on Friday..

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 07:55 | 1831161 EL INDIO
EL INDIO's picture

If G-P pulls it off, his people must celebrate him as a national hero.

How about a military backed revolution to remove him ?

I’m sure NATO would be happy to help if necessary.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:14 | 1831229 duo
duo's picture

Meanwhile, the Irish are still passing around the lube!

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:16 | 1831235 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

You do know that the last military junta in Greece gave way to democracy only so around 1973, do you?

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 09:51 | 1831925 MS7
MS7's picture

Unfortunately, the people are so suspicious of his motives, that it is not going to work. Of course his own party is going to take him down very soon so there is no time.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 07:55 | 1831162 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

My shorts are screaming higher, heheheh! Not really sure about "pap's game" yet it plays well into my hand! Still think mr santa will show up, too much "special" interest on WS, to not happen!

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 07:55 | 1831163 Socrate
Socrate's picture

5 star Peter Tchir as always, bitchez.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 07:55 | 1831165 EZYJET PILOT
EZYJET PILOT's picture

I highly doubt the referendum decision will be honoured by the Greek government. Like everything in this European debacle they will hold re-votes until they get the vote they want. As examples look at the Lisbon treaty, Dutch vote, Irish vote, the recent Slovakia "no to EFSF" vote. He's done this because he realises he is fast losing control of his country.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:16 | 1831233 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

" Like everything in this European debacle they will hold re-votes until they get the vote they want."

...........................

You mean like the multiple TARP votes in the US? hehehe...

Our politicians, our bankers and our gods are soooo superior to anyone else's!!!

Good on GPap if he can get the best deal for 'his people' while the bankers twist in the wind.

 

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:19 | 1831245 oogs66
oogs66's picture

what if G-Pap is repositioning to oppose the bailout?  that calling the referendum and getting a no vote is what he wants so he can be a hero to greece?

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 09:49 | 1831911 MS7
MS7's picture

The MPs are going to take him down by the end of the week. But I think it would have been good to let the people decide. If he had offered this over a year ago, I think the people would have been on board. But (unless I am missing something) I think their hatred of Papandreou has clouded the judgment of the citizens, and they automatically assume there is something sinister behind his call for a referendum. I've heard some speculation on blogs that the Americans are behind this and trying to take down the euro (I don't believe that, but I don't get it at all...).

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 07:56 | 1831167 JSD
JSD's picture

Beware of Greeks bearing gifts.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 07:59 | 1831182 JSD
JSD's picture

Where Gifts = Bonds.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 07:56 | 1831168 Paul Thomason
Paul Thomason's picture

Germans not happy, have started a Pap smear campaign.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 07:56 | 1831169 Gandalf6900
Gandalf6900's picture

G-Papa baught himself a grace period from his hanging

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:19 | 1831196 UGrev
UGrev's picture

I love it when you call me G-Papa.. 

Put your bonds in the aya cuz you a big playa.. 

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 07:58 | 1831177 taraxias
taraxias's picture

Bullshit.

Your read of why he did this is so far off base, it's laughable.

 

His Gov't was ready to collapse taking down his banker owners and the rest of the EZ with it. He thought the best way to buy everyone time was by announcing a referendum (which according to the Greek constitution can't even happen). The man is a traitor who's owned by the banking cartel and you are applauding. Sheeesh.......

Those unintended consequences are a bitch though.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:09 | 1831211 margaris
margaris's picture

yep, jeffrey is a bankster puppet alright...

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:29 | 1831288 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Thanks for the view from over there. Politicians are the same everywhere; if it looks like they're doing something for the people of their country, it is most likely merely coincidental.

Those unintended consequences are a bitch though.

As I'm sure we'll all find out, again and again.

 

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:31 | 1831289 Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

Greek Defence Minister Panos Beglitis asked the Greek armed forces to "abstain from any participation in the current political party conflict". I somehow doubt that Mr Papandreou was considering anything other than the smell of an imminent coup wafting through the air when he announced the referandum.

A part of the Greek constitution below defines the difference between a referandum regarding social and fiscal matters.

 

 

Article 44 
1. Under extraordinary circumstances of an urgent and unforeseeable need, the President of the Republic may, upon the proposal of the Cabinet, issue acts of legislative content. Such acts shall be submitted to Parliament for ratification, as specified in the provisions of article 72 paragraph 1, within forty days of their issuance or within forty days from the convocation of a parliamentary session. Should such acts not be submitted to Parliament within the above time-limits or if they should not be ratified by Parliament within three months of their submission, they will henceforth cease to be in force.
* 2. The President of the Republic shall by decree proclaim a referendum on crucial national matters following a resolution voted by an absolute majority of the total number of Members of Parliament, taken upon proposal of the Cabinet.
A referendum on Bills passed by Parliament regulating important social matters, with the exception of the fiscal ones shall be proclaimed by decree by the President of the Republic, if this is decided by three-fifths of the total number of its members, following a proposal of two-fifths of the total number of its members, and as the Standing Orders and the law for the application of the present paragraph provide. No more than two proposals to hold a referendum on a Bill can be introduced in the same parliamentary term.
Should a Bill be voted, the time-limit stated in article 42 paragraph 1 begins the day the referendum is held.
* 3. The President of the Republic may under exceptional circumstances address messages to the People with the consent opinion of the Prime Minister. Those messages should be countersigned by the Prime Minister and published in the Government Gazette.

 

 


Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:52 | 1832256 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Stil... even of G-Pap gets thrown under the bus by his colleagues... now that the Greek people have smelt a referendum they're unlikely to let the next 'leader' get away with not holding one.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 07:58 | 1831180 darkpool2
darkpool2's picture

CDS....just a game of musical chairs , where all the players know there aent enough chairs, but its a fair bet that the music will never be stopped.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 07:59 | 1831181 darkpool2
darkpool2's picture

CDS....just a game of musical chairs , where all the players know there aent enough chairs, but its a fair bet that the music will never be stopped.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 07:59 | 1831185 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Ya mas!

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:00 | 1831188 Enkidu78
Enkidu78's picture

A little info found here regarding redenominate their bonds in LIRE

http://seekingalpha.com/article/243061-never-say-never-to-bailing-out-of...

 

 

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:01 | 1831190 been there done that
been there done that's picture

They can export feta cheese and olives to China. This can work!  I like it! First Icelend, now Greece.  BKX going to zero?

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:02 | 1831192 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

 

While this is all great theatre (of the absurd), let us not lose sight of the end game; sovereign asset stripping by the NWO folks.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:02 | 1831194 peekcrackers
peekcrackers's picture

Fuck the Greek troika.. Defualt allready !

go light  some cheese on fire .. drink some ouzo .. OpA! motherfuckers

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:05 | 1831204 wang (not verified)
wang's picture

 for those who have had the pleasure of negotiating with Greeks, it's UFC

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:07 | 1831206 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

 

Pete Tchir, my teacher...

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:09 | 1831210 terryfuckwit
terryfuckwit's picture

g paps simply playing for his big familly cds payout.. no such thing as countries just personal bank balances in the equation here

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:11 | 1831217 OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

G-Pap's insurance had better be paid up!

The high end global elite and their banker oligarchs, are not liking this crimp in their plan for the NWO and their dream of a new one global currency. Say nothing of devalueing their hard stolen soveriegn wealth.

Now. Was there someone else on the grassy knoll? Or not?

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:11 | 1831220 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

The house of cards is wobbling. Can QE mega III be far off?

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:13 | 1831224 say_jet
say_jet's picture

Where's all the Game Theorists?  These guys are flying by the seat of their pants.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:16 | 1831238 Trader47
Trader47's picture

No INK to print the ballot papers,,,, need to upgrade the Porsche Cayenne

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100012894/fast-cars-and-loose-fiscal-morals-there-are-more-porsches-in-greece-than-taxpayers-declaring-50000-euro-incomes/

50 % Tax on Moussaka should do it,, Go for it

 

 

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:17 | 1831239 Jafo
Jafo's picture

There's nothing like a little uncertainty to get a market going.  I'm lovin' it.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:17 | 1831240 Trader47
Trader47's picture

No INK to print the ballot papers,,,, need to upgrade the Porsche Cayenne

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100012894/fast-cars-and-loose-fiscal-morals-there-are-more-porsches-in-greece-than-taxpayers-declaring-50000-euro-incomes/

50 % Tax on Moussaka should do it,, Go for it

 

 

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:19 | 1831247 Astraea
Astraea's picture

Papendreau is a Jew and a Zionist Jew at that - his loyalty is not to the Greeks People but to the banksters and to "israel".       There is something more to this than we know - there always is with Jews.     They are  far too clever for decent honest people who do not think the way they do - deviously and deceitfully.     It must be an exhausting way of life!   Horrible, and not at all intelligent.     At least, I find nothing intelligent about spending your life plotting against all the rest of Humanity - how to lie to them cheat, steal and kill!

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:36 | 1831319 Golden Receiver
Golden Receiver's picture

Raise the level of your game.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:21 | 1831253 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

It was the Greek Riot Granny that changed the world.  Who would have known?

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:24 | 1831266 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

" At least, I find nothing intelligent about spending your life plotting against all the rest of Humanity - how to lie to them cheat, steal and kill!"

..........................................

Bankers would not exist if greed were not a common affliction of humans.

IOWs, they couldn't screw you if you didn't ask for it... it being credit.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:27 | 1831273 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

G Pap is no different than Jon Corzine and I'm not willing to give one more dime to either one. Anyone dumb enough to loan them anything at this point deserves to lose it. In fact both should go to prison for their misrepresentations of the facts.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:32 | 1831297 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Again. No. Italy is not England.

Although you're probably right in essence anyway, given the whorish bent of the ISDA of late.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:35 | 1831314 lookma
lookma's picture

Blow harder next time.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:39 | 1831348 victor82
victor82's picture

Costa-Gavras, to the white courtesy telephone, please!

 

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:52 | 1831417 HellBoy6
HellBoy6's picture

This was the only thing he could do to try and stay in power.  If he went along with the EU he would have served his people up on a platter.  This way he get's to say, "see I'm giving you a choice against the big bad EU gangstas"... it's a fine line but he may aviod getting booted.  First hurdle; Friday's no confidence vote.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 08:59 | 1831476 web bot
web bot's picture

... and if you were wondering what the root of Greece's problems is... look no further than its leadership.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 09:01 | 1831496 partimer1
partimer1's picture

Honestly, who the fuck in the right mindset will lend money to greeks or buy greek bond, except the great Goldmanite Jon Corzine?  Nobody wants to face the reality. reality works in certain way.  Nobody can promises peace and prosperity for another 50 years.  It looks like another 2 years, not 50 years.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 09:42 | 1831851 MS7
MS7's picture

Russia, for one. Russia was willing to lend money so Greece would not have had to go to the IMF. It was going to create a big energy deal with Greece under Papandreou's predecessor, but the Americans did not like it. When that government was toppled (there are suspicions of the US involvement in that) and Papandreou came to power, that deal was ended. C'mon people. Greece is in a strategic location. It will do well. It'll take some time, but it will do well.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 09:11 | 1831609 JohnFrodo
JohnFrodo's picture

Things that can not continue stop. Greece is so far underwater the pressure has crushed the hull.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 09:15 | 1831634 RSDallas
RSDallas's picture

I don't think he can easily back out of this move.  Greece is already in a situation wherein they can't keep up with their current expenses.  I think G-Pap just threw in the white towel.  He is merely trying to preserve his name in the history books by making the end game appear to be the wishes of the people.  This is going to completely backfire on him.  What a scum bag!  The people of Greece need to light the fire under the tar and pluck some feathers because they have no other choice than to 100% default and good for the people (eventually) of Greece if it happens. 

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 09:28 | 1831671 crashguru
crashguru's picture

Poppycock!! Some naive souls believe Chinese investments would be a good thing, right, for China i.e..

 The first thing they usually do after they bought a  company is to fire the management and replace it with Chinese who still work for a fraction of Western workers, then the rest will sowly be replaced  ... 

Mr. Papa. is a clone of his father and in case you dont know what he did to Greece ... he was one of the main culprits that got Greece into this mess.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 13:12 | 1832919 monoloco
monoloco's picture

I don't think that Greece can produce enough olive oil and ouzo to maintain a balance of trade with China.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 09:39 | 1831821 MS7
MS7's picture

The Greek government won't allow a referendum. MPs are resigning from his party left and right. The opposition is threatening to withdraw from the Parliament, thereby forcing elections. The referendum won't happen. It is a shame. The average citizens have been used to getting bad things from Papandreou and they just reflexively opposed this. I agree with you that it would have been a good idea for Greece. The major opposition party which has opposed everything Papandreou has done would not risk losing eu membership. But if it isn't willing to risk that, how could it possibly get a better deal that Papandreou? Now that he is leaving the scene, I feel i've misjudged him. The others in the Parliament are more suspect.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 09:42 | 1831850 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

As mentioned for some time, the bullish USD weekly chart continues to exert it’s influence and according to my analysis this will continue.

DOW chart showing bearish megaphone pattern warned of resumption of downtrend:

http://stockmarket618.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/2011-10-31_dow_dy_x.png

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 10:08 | 1832027 MindTheGAP
MindTheGAP's picture

Well, the brother of GPap is owner of CDSs for the default of Greece. By the end of the year, GPap's family will be multi-billioners and some of the biggest banks arround the world will be bankrupt.

Tue, 11/01/2011 - 13:26 | 1832964 Iwanttoknow
Iwanttoknow's picture

Papa Gpap was put in charge by the Brits.That was one of the concessions Churchill got at Yalta.Us put the Greek colonels in power in 1967?.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!