From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors
Well played Mr. Papandreou
It was almost funny how quiet he was at the summit. It seems like he sat back, got the best deal he possibly could for Greece and now Greece can decide if it is good enough.
The IIF and their NPV calculations. The ECB and their paid in full demands. The EU and their austerity and controls and demands over which Greek assets can be sold to whom? Debt to GDP of 120% by 2020.
How about debt to GDP of 10% by year end? How about some nice asset sales to China at premium prices not only to get some immediate funds but to develop a nice long term relationships with deep pockets and a great trade partner. Not sure where IMF fits in.
All along I have argued it was Greece's choice to default or not and that it was in their best interest to do it. He played it far better than I could have. He holds the cards. He is putting his people and national interest above Europe. Merkozy must be in a panic.
This may just be a ploy to get a better deal, but I think it is great for Greece. It's horrible for the bailout as every other nation in trouble may take similar steps.
I would be very careful buying Italian CDS as they could redenominate their bonds in LIRE and it wouldn't be a Credit Event (our reading of the doc is that G-8 nations have that right - but trying to confirm)