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What A Day

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

Stocks and credit were up nicely overnight.  Stocks in particular were heavy once Europe opened.  Markets stabilized a bit after the unemployment claims number (who still has jobs that allow them to get benefits when they get laid off?).  It was the ECB press conference that really set the tone.  MAIN, which was the only CDX index in Europe with any semblance of liquidity leaked a little during the call drifting from 127 to 129.75.  Then came the magic words.  ECB bond purchases.  MAIN immediately gapped to 125.75.  As it started leaking, unable to hold the gains, and then actually moved back to the wides, that seemed like a clear sell signal.  We had the news that we were looking for, albeit somewhat watered down, and the market couldn't rally on that. 

That was a very disturbing event in my opinion. 

The U.S. remains hopeful that QE3 is coming.  The tone of messages I get seems to be of people caught long (possibly recently) trying to show that market isn't really that weak.  We tried the "Europe has gone home rally" and it pushed SPX cash all the way up to 1229, but since then we have faded.  I think people will get more and more nervous about NFP as we head into the close.  It is not just the number tomorrow that people are worrying about, but possibly massive downward revisions.  Is it possible we get a 10% unemployment rate print tomorrow?  Probably not, but given the price action, the fact that too many people still seem to be hoping for QE3 (I was one of those overnight and early today), and the NFP revisions fear, I think we will see a new low today before we close.

HYG and high yield market has taken it on the chin today.  But HYG still seems more priced to the offer side. I'm tempted to cover that short, but the shares outstanding are still at near term peaks.  We are getting this sell off in high yield with minimal outflows.  I think it has another leg down as these losses cause some investors to sell out of the asset class and we see an outflow led sell-off.  Also the CDS indices aren't trading particularly cheap.  After such big moves, I would expect to see IG trading 3-4 bps cheap and it is basically flat.  HY is probably just over a point cheap, but in a market moving by 2% that is probably hard to capture and isn't as extreme as it often gets.  It tells me that credit investors haven't believed in the sell-off are overexposed and/or underhedged.

 

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Thu, 08/04/2011 - 14:22 | 1524285 Bard
Bard's picture

Everything is going down... even ZH.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 14:24 | 1524291 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Think that market sentiment will slosh over into the significant other area?

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 15:15 | 1524425 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Last check of the market indicator I am using from this point forward was as follows -

JPM - $38.70
Ag - $39.15

We still have another day of downward market action to go. 

Is there any true correlation between the parity of the two? Who the fuck knows, but I know someone who is making a killing on put options playing the ratio when JPM and Ag hit parity.  Ag will get crushed and JPM will move up so that JPM is higher than Ag. It has happened three consecutive times since the two first reached parity earlie this year, two weeks ago, and this recent route.  

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 15:44 | 1524532 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Dr.Head, It's a done deal...............it's below JPM now, screw parity.

Wait till tommorrow...........we may get a shot at $34/$1550.00.....................

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 01:41 | 1525803 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

everything is going down...

not me, tonight

 

whaaaaa

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 15:19 | 1524449 oogs66
oogs66's picture

not my wife :(

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 00:51 | 1525746 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Congratulations!  You're the only one who got it.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 14:22 | 1524288 Doyle Hargraves
Doyle Hargraves's picture

QE3 hopium bitchez!

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 14:22 | 1524289 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Hold off on that QE3 until I can stock up on a little more PM in this temporary dip.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 14:23 | 1524290 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

happy birthday president obama! happy fucking birthday, bitchez!

http://azizonomics.com/2011/08/04/244/

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 14:55 | 1524358 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Nice brutal selloff the likes of which not seen since 08 as a birthday present for NeObama

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 14:24 | 1524295 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Yes, QE3 will be coming. I would have to agree with the others that feel that way. The only thing is, figuring out what exactly it will be.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 14:25 | 1524300 WineSorbet
WineSorbet's picture

You're hoping for QE3?  Is that sarcasm?

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 15:03 | 1524390 Dirt Rat
Dirt Rat's picture

Why, yes. That's about the only-ALL HAIL HYPNOTOAD!!!

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 14:27 | 1524303 waterdog
waterdog's picture

It is like watching the Wicked Witch of the West after Dorothy threw water on her- I am melting!

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 14:29 | 1524307 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

As i wrote in a previous thread, I think the "only" way for "them" to "halt" this decline, even if only "transitory" is to botch tomorrow's NFP numbers! Or, since it's weekend already....we go down another notch! 1217.50 was my number on the S&P now printing 1213/1214 will it hold into the close? I doubt it!

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 14:37 | 1524324 There is No Spoon
There is No Spoon's picture

Or maybe you just bottom ticked the market with your capitulation - vix near thirty, heavy volume washout.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 14:44 | 1524338 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

QE3 will be launched.

 

But it's akin to Chasing the Dragon, bitchez.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 01:46 | 1525808 Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

sometimes your comparisons not only invoke sour and powerful memories, but frame the shitty art piece that will soon be hung on all our walls

thanks a lot ETF

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 14:57 | 1524369 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Wave 3 price action. This is just a precursor for the Big One.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 15:09 | 1524406 PaperBugsBurn
PaperBugsBurn's picture

Burn, illuminati toilet paper bugs, BURN IN HELL!

Investors? Bah! Rentier slave drivers is more like it.

Burn baby burn!!

2012? Not! Watch what happens with the inevitable QE3! This hurricane has been 40 years in the making. There is no fixing the self-cannibalization of Amerika!

The new Romans! lmao Fools!

Row, row your boat gently down the stream!

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 15:26 | 1524477 Spigot
Spigot's picture

So, in 1 week we go from "no QE3" to "looking forward to QE3"... what a load of crap.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 15:26 | 1524481 iNull
iNull's picture

NFP = No Fucking Possibility

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 16:00 | 1524573 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

QE3 or no QE3?

Everyone talking their book on ZH?

Tue, 03/27/2012 - 07:02 | 2293730 l.hauri
l.hauri's picture

It was a good day in my opinion. I really like it. custom flag banner

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 19:09 | 1524998 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

I met two people in Walgreen's today who were buying Lube...they said they BTFD last week ...got fooled by MSM.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 20:36 | 1525149 graneros
graneros's picture

Of course QE3 is coming.  Also look for QE4,5,6... Just like the debt ceiling was going to be raised so called quantative Easing is here to stay.  At least until the bottom falls completely out that is.  Let's face it it's the only thing the fed has left to do and so they will do it till the bitter end.  Doesn't matter if your for it, against or don't care one way or another QE3 will happen.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 22:59 | 1525493 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

S&P500 head and shoulders target is 1,176 and further downside
expected.

As mentioned for some time - S&P500 monthly has been tracking sideways this year. This extensive distribution signified a bearish big picture and that a significant downtrend would follow.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 23:11 | 1525533 electronpaul
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QE3 = where the public learns what "pushing on a string" means....

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 04:45 | 1667377 chinawholesaler
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