What Do Economists Expect From The Fed?

Tyler Durden's picture


A wonderful sheep-like 88% of all economists surveyed in a recent Bloomberg poll believe QE3 is inevitable - up from 76% at the end of July. 64% are convinced the LSAP will be announced tomorrow. Perhaps more interestingly, given the reality of flow over stock efficacy, 32 of the 73 expect an open-ended QE program - of around USD65bn TSYs or USD35bn MBS per month. In line with our own market-implied expectations, the median estimate for QE3's size is USD700bn (split between TSYs and MBS - which likely reflects the size constraints of the Fed's already huge dominance of the TSY market). Perhaps most surprising is that only 68% expect an extension of the rates guidance - and paradoxically, given all these expectations for moar money, is that 49% of those surveyed believe Fed policy is too easy. Perhaps this response best sums up the quandary that the Fed finds itself in, sadly, "Disappointing the markets doesn’t seem like a good strategy, but it’s not obvious how much more GDP to expect if they fulfill market expectations for more action."

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Wed, 09/12/2012 - 08:54 | 2785127 GetZeeGold
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What Do Economists Expect From The Fed? 


Blue skys.......slight chance of thievery.



Wed, 09/12/2012 - 08:55 | 2785137 The Wizard of Oz
The Wizard of Oz's picture


Wed, 09/12/2012 - 08:55 | 2785138 CPL
CPL's picture

Low pressure deception system rolling in from the political system, hot air expected.


News at six.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 09:01 | 2785161 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

...is about to meet the cold air of reality... and when they do collide, one big shit-storm will be created.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 08:57 | 2785148 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows" -Bob Dylan

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 09:01 | 2785162 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

On that note...


EURUSD just crossed to full retard 1.29 zone.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 08:55 | 2785136 Deep79
Deep79's picture

"Disappointing the markets"

What fucking markets?

This is a rigged casino

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 08:55 | 2785143 Gandalf6900
Gandalf6900's picture

its raining cash...halleluja

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 09:01 | 2785163 gigeze787
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 Why You Should Expect Fed QE3 , Tue, Sep 11



Why QE3 Will Not Happen Mon, Sep 10


Wed, 09/12/2012 - 09:02 | 2785172 RobinHood73
RobinHood73's picture

And post QE3- how long before we are all talking about QE4? Any takers? I say next thursday

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 09:05 | 2785184 Deep79
Deep79's picture

Thats the sick thing. IMO we don't get QE3, but then all we will hear for next 2 months is "Oh it's coming in December"


Wed, 09/12/2012 - 09:04 | 2785180 rfaze
rfaze's picture

$5 gas during December........ Merry Christmas 

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 09:34 | 2785315 GetZeeGold
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If we play our cards right we can get 4 more years of this crap!

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 09:06 | 2785188 schatzi
schatzi's picture

I think a 1-2 day short position on GLD might be the right response to those big QE3(4?) expectations.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 09:09 | 2785208 WonderDawg
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Or SLV. Or both. Take a swing with some puts with money you won't lose any sleep over if you're wrong and they expire worthless. Pondering some SLV weeklies myself.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 09:14 | 2785243 pong
pong's picture

Yep-- bought some SLV weeklies cheap. If there's a shift, it happens fast-- If you can avoid the couple of <-4% day moves in silver in the year, then you're doing quite well.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 09:11 | 2785219 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

The Fed is stuck in printing mode to support banks until the banks are solvent.  And that will never happen with all the leverage in the system and allowing them to lose money in the global casino.  They will continue to print money to loan to the government and bankers while creating a dynamic that keeps money from ever going into the real economy where there is an actual risk.  Hyper stagflation will result.   The Fed will figure that out in about 5 years and punch the big reset button to give the bankers all the money they need and then cut them off. 

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 09:11 | 2785223 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

The best argument against QE3 now is that it will buy the election for Obama.  If the Fed approves it anyway, every conservative in the country will be committed to ending the Fed.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 09:22 | 2785276 adr
adr's picture

QE3 kills Obama's chances. He doesn't get elected with $5+ gas.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 09:28 | 2785293 Jake88
Jake88's picture

"Every conservative in the country will be committed to ending the Fed" WTF? You mean like Paul and Kucinich. In case you haven't noticed. 98 % of everybody in the federal government is on board with the plutocracy the whole CFR global fascism thing that wouldn't be without the Fed. Thare are no conservatives. Apparently you do not understand Ayn Rand.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 09:49 | 2785393 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

"Every conservative in the country will be committed to ending the Fed." -- I LOL'd.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 09:19 | 2785262 kralizec
kralizec's picture

What Do Economists Expect From The Fed?

Thanks for all the BJ's?

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 09:24 | 2785280 youngman
youngman's picture

10 million Iphones sold...that is all I am hearing today....kids on vacation in Chicago...oh and some Americans got killed in Egypt...must of been our fault...cause the State department apologized.....

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 09:26 | 2785289 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture


See how easy it is for managers to fix reality?


The euro is good - to - go! Why would anyone sell euros? (Why is the euro so costly when an out-and-out currency run is underway? The CHF euro reserves speak for themselves!)


Germany is going to sacrifice its own economy for Spain's (let's keep Italy out of this).


Failure can be kept at bay for months/years: all that is required is one day, one bit of lying foolishness at a time and millions of those willing to be fooled. Nobody wants a greater depression, right? 


Something will come up during the next five years or so of stalling. Romnobama will elected-then-retire, memoirs will be written, blame will be cast, scapegoats will be hanged and none of them will be bankers (environmentalists).


It's getting colder, a new Ice Age is due to begin, we can get gigantic armored pickup trucks and SUVs that get 100 mpg using common vegetable oil available at any grocery store. Our resources are inexhaustible (at current rates of consumption). Every backyard will feature its own Thorium fueled liquid metal fission reactor. All that is necessary for happy days to arrive is for the 'consumer to borrow again (against the 'value' of his/her so-called 'home': a thrown-together particle board and plastic shack stuck in the middle of a gigantic automobile slum).


Meanwhile, the central banks will become the sole providers of credit. The private sector will merge with law enforcement to become debt collectors.


What could possibly go wrong?

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 09:37 | 2785326 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Bernanke is going to go down in history as the man who ended the US reserve currency.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 09:47 | 2785385 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

And somehow Treasury and MBS purchases will cause the stock market to skyrocket another 5%.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 10:02 | 2785469 Falkor
Falkor's picture

What a fine mess!

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 10:11 | 2785530 govttrader
govttrader's picture

Its easier to be flat for the actual event...trade the setup..trade the aftermath...but be flat for the actual announcement.



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