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What Do Swiss Bonds Know That Nobody Else Does?
On the surface all is well, stocks are soaring, the EURUSD is up solidly, and euphoria is back, or that is at least what is being telegraphed. So why is the single biggest unmanipulated flight to safety flag (defined by us) currently available - the Swiss 2 Year - screaming to run for cover? The bond is currently at an all time nominal low, as none of the peripheral euphoria has had any impact on Europe's true remaining risk free asset, and instead it just hit a new all time record low yield moments ago. Just what does it know that nobody else does, or wishes to acknowledge? Or is today merely the latest iteration of the Copperfield market: keep the algos distracted with flashing red headlines and bright green S&P numbers, which the real money is quietly running away into the safety of Geneva bank vaults...
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Some pegs are harder to maintain than others...
All pegs are equal, but some pegs are more equal than others.
Sounds like peg envy to me.
Negative 454!?! Wow. Do you smell the shit before it hits the fan or after?
Oh p-lease! Positive interests rates on government bonds is just soooo 2011. It's called modern financial economics.
Just like in war, POP SMOKE! Good cover, only a select few have the infraReD to see thru this crap.
S&P may touch 1400, however when the smoke clears it all becomes evident. Truth will come out, it may just take awhile.
The markets forget the real trouble, or maybe it doesn't want to see it. The sheeple need to eat and drive, that makes very little money left over for the "wants".
ZHer's you know what is coming, hunker down and stay thirsty my friends...
I believe that is a very extinct animal.
PEGSAREUS: PEGS-ARE-US
Arrrrr, do ye be mockin me?
A word of advice to our supreme soviet.
You can paint a pretty picture, but you cannot overcome the market with it.
Because ain't jack shit fixed.
Nor will it be as debt continues to blowout.
The Horrible, the Miserable and the Swiss. That was an album name we were working on for our punk band in the 80's.
Lower interest rates = bigger "Animal Spirits" later
Fuck off, troll.
Later? More like "right now." to which I say...no matter how impossible it is...and it is..."just because it's a rigged market doesn't mean rigging it won't work."
robo is the scitzophrenic alter ego of a totally frustrated perma bear who never had enough money to play the markets anyway
robo seeks all the trendy catch phrases and his/her adgenda has nothing to do with return on investment, but irritation to those gullible enough to be irritated
...and based on his frequent use of phrases such as: "pie holeing", jaw boning", and "gum flapping" he seems to exhibit latent cocksucker tendencies.
u forgot boner jam
“We’re at an epochal turning point,” Brok said. “We’ve had 60 years of peace, freedom and welfare and now comes an attack that could destroy this concept, which we have to deflect.”
Truely epic.
Massive short covering in FaceFuck. Californication is SAVED!!
Your votes are more negative than Swiss interest rates.
You've got to love this potemkin market!
Margin Stanley is loving it at the moment. Dirty dirty love.
You guessed it all - the real money tries to hide in these swiss mountains.
You wish Tyler.. from Bloomberg: "Merkel's coalition members signal acceptance of ECB bond-bying"
Just buy the rally!
That story is actually bullshit and months old, recycled to cover the algo driven BS moves of today.
Now you are bullshitting.
Nah...he's just being Candide ;o)
AH more 'signals' lol bullshit.
Yield is dropping like a box of rocks. I am just waiting for the Chinese to start dumping US T-Bonds and end their participation in the Bond market to concentrate on hard asset (gold) purchases. We all know what is comoing. Ni Hao!!!
They already have. The 10yr is kept low through manipulation, via JPig and their IRS derivatives: TNX. It's fooling you into believing the Chinese are still interested in US paper. The entire market is a ponzi. US Gov't just trying to cover up as much as possible.
Uhuh. Just who are those "Indirect Buyers" and who is funding them.
You get three guesses.
Oh, you only need one guess?
euros are flooding into helvatia keeping those Italian finance police frisking like crazy.
Its saying this whole move is bullshit conjured by the corrupt fed to trap all the bears from yesterday's disappointment from Drahgi. Start by buying to cover 62,000 /es (that got strategically put on within seconds of the close the previous day) in the wee hours of the thin markets on globex and create a 12 point lead into bullshit statistics at 8:30am to scramble the momotards into action and squeeze all those fresh new Bears that jumped in yesterday and you have the makings of a false break out that once rolls will be one fun ride down.
A modest recommendation to ZH .......... drill into this person's observation please.
My 'faith' in the 'system' was irrevocably altered when the old WSJ did an excelllent long piece following the October 1987 monster crash that revealed that 'someone' at the typically slowest part of the trading day, I think it was 11:20am then, on Tuesday when the markets were literally sitting on a cliff wall waiting to slide much further down, ....... 'someone' bought a major slug of MMI (then the dominant trading index .. it was the Major Market Index) forcing every short to cover immediately propelling the market out of its looming nadir.
The old WSJ politely 'begged the question' ......... 'who' did this, who had the 'confidence' to do this, what did they 'really know', etc.
Later 'speculation' was that this was the first of subsequently many market forays by the Plunge Protection Team.
The problem is, ultimately this becomes nothing more than crony capitalism as Treasury, Fed Reserve and major Wall Street become joined at the hip, losses are socialized while gains are private, as the taxpayer takes on essentially market risk management ... hubris develops, moral hazard increases dramtically, etc.
If and when PRChina decides to publicly pull the plug on US Treasuries (purchaes/holdings) where they will not be blown up as well in the process ... then this 'game' is over ...and Team USA will have almost no options ...
on a side note which market breaks out first, gasoline or /es ?
It's a tight race so far.
Smith and Wesson and Ruger.
I would love...LOVE...to see the "Balance Sheet" of the PPT :O)
why? The PPT needs only use printed, stolen money to do all their transactions. Unless you plan to use it to jail them for treason, grand larceny, counterfeiting and money-laundering in which case I say by all means let's see the the balance sheets and get the cuffs out.
It's one thing for the market to move counter-intuitively. It's another problem entirely when the move requires input capital the market itself does not have - that requires counterfeiting and/or laundering weapons+drugs to cash on a national military scale and/or printing it from the Fed endlessly (counterfeiting)
Don't be such a cynic! ;o)
All of that newly created money has to flow somewhere.
The border @ Cernobbio is performing metal detector anal checks. Queue up please. Grazie.
one chart says it all:
Bundesbank Target 800 B in August?
http://www.cds-info.com/index.php/2
Does this indicate that lots of people are putting money into swiss bonds since the end of May?
Remember the old comments in 08 if markets knew what credit markets know then this market would be about 20% lower.
About 75% now 4 years later.
Applies well here.
Like Draghi (and now BK) it knows that war with Iran is coming soon. Where would you rather have 2 year money?
In my coffee can at home buried in the back yard.
I think the bust is totally unavoidable now. The powers that be have made their preparations to last as long as possible. Now they are just going to let everything fly to see how big of a fireworks show they can make.
Everyone stops to enjoy fireworks. Even if hundreds of them are starting to fly off into the crowd. For the people that don't get hit, it is even more enjoyable to watch.
2013 is going to be a killer year.
I mean that literally. War, famine, and all the worst things you can imagine.
When, by the headlines, beef gets too expensive to eat, how is McDonalds going to survive? Kind of hard to support a $90 stock price if a Big Mac costs $20.
Beef in a BigMac? Do tell...
Want to touch the heiney....!!!
"So round, so firm, so fully packed!"
"It was hanging on the rack.
Someone stole the kiszka when I turned my back."
What time is today's reversion to VWAP?
Probably in the last hour, we will be off the highs of the day. If not, then Monday.
what do swiss bonds know? not too much today it would seem.
Right, because as long as a couple weighted and manipulated stock indexes are up, then thats all that really matters.
broad rally, more than "a couple of weighted indexes" i really don't care why
One of these things is not like the others.
The music has stopped.
The 'market' does not notice because of the scream of tearing
metal coming from the collision with the iceberg.
Have no fear,the clever money is already filling all the lifeboats.
War is in the Air, so let's go in to the swissie
That Canary In The Coal Mine died so long ago that it is now just part of the coal dust in a miner's lungs.
Memento, Canary, quia pulvis es, et in pulverem reverteris.
Money doesnt lie. Truly ominous. Im just pissed because I cant figure out how to use my bullets just yet and I know there is opportunity
LMAO ! I know what you mean.
Real estate, Commodities, Pm's, Jr's, and yes Oil/Natural gas. Someone is going to come out much better then they went in if they look hard into these areas but the time to pull the trigger is definitely dwindling.
stacking gold & silver maples, ensuring you have the ability to travel to another country with ease & expect to be safe there for a while, otherwise if you want to play games with margin, paper, options, keep your eyes open on SPY puts or flat out shorting SPY.
http://flic.kr/p/bnbsG5
Historical trend is that the big drop is coming and having a few puts wouldn't hurt. Historical trend is also that carrying SPY shares will go up in price enough to justify owning them but ONLY if you buy on the lower curve presented in the above graph.
It's up to you if you want to write puts on the shares of SPY you hold if you decide to hold any but it more reliably pulls cash in rather than always trying to buy calls predicting the rise up.
Keep your eyes open for FAZ, FAS, VXX and GLD but don't dare use FAZ, FAS or VXX without a scatter-plot to SPY and keeping an eye on the over-all dip-to-peak trend identified in the above chart.
GLD : keep tracking daily prices to this http://flic.kr/p/cgMBw3
This entire year looks like an opportune time to stack gold eages, maples and bars so just do it.
repeat after me, in a loud voice! "Little Ole Lady Who!."
At the same time, it seems that gold is being kept unconscious by its doctors.
duck and cover!
like maHildie: geneva.paris.newyork
slewienomics indicates that the SNB pump-and dump w/ their bonds and the EUR/CHF peg is the mirror image/flip side of what the FED is doing w/ Ts only the fungible paper is QESNB2infinity
quality -L0L!!!- equities seem to love any fungible digit from anywhere
equine equities: that new horse fungicideTM can run! all day long! chicken fuking dinner!
plus! jimWillie's needle has gone to: impending serious freaking doom so we have posturepedic ponzi poise predicated as decoupling goes to:> total bi-furcation from theReal
free! free at last!
Ahoy Slewie
You said:
"...posturepedic ponzi poise predicated as decoupling goes to:> total bi-furcation from theReal"
+100, a Wench, and a keg of grog.
Alternate universe Princess and the Pea where the Princess (markets) can't feel a rock under a blanket.
More expensive to launder dictator loot , nazi gold and colombian drug money
"On the surface all is well, stocks are soaring, the EURUSD is up solidly, and euphoria is back..."
There is uaually some explanation for this but I didn't see or hear of any meetings, canceled meetings, promises, broken promises blah, blah blah so why the hell were EUR/USD, US futures and Europe markets, especially Spain and Italy, soaring before the NFP???
I just saw this, is this why Europe was soaring befoe US open?
"Thinking that Spain might soon make a formal rescue request also bolstered sentiment, with Spanish borrowing costs falling to levels viewed as more sustainable on Friday.
On Friday, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy repeated that his nation is finding it harder to refinance its debt, but said he has not yet made a decision on whether to call for Europe’s help, Reuters reported.
"The pressure can only mount going forward as the ECB works on designing what [European Central Bank President Mario] Draghi called ‘appropriate modalities’ for a policy response," Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, wrote in a note, citing media accounts that Italy’s prime minister was encouraging Rajoy to make a formal request."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-rally-on-economic-data-2012-08-03
What's Reggie "I'm always wrong about Apple" Middleton doing these days?
raising money for Obama
It's telling you that this whole levitational move is designed to get Euroland through the vacation season. After all, it's August already. :)
Maybe they know the muppets aren't coming back to the stock racket. Maybe they know that betting your savings in a racket going against supercomputers is the same as betting the avg joe can beat one at chess on the highest expert level. Let alone when the avg joe is presented with false flags, misleading headlines and tons of false information.
1400 or bust.
Oh, that article was written so bright and shiny!
Negative real interest (inflation adjusted) were already known for a while, now we have negative nominal interest. Why borrow money and pay interest yourself when you can actually borrow money and make your lender pay interest himself ?! These days, investors are so afraid they'd rather loose a bit of money (through interest) in order to keep the most of their principle. But it sounds stupid, why not keeping cash instead? There can be only one explanation for this negative real interest non-sense : Swiss bond investors are hoping everybody will rush to the Swiss bonds (maybe during an euro break out) making its interest even more negative but its principal much much bigger, because with negative real interest, you still can make money by selling the principle at a higher price. But this wicked game can't go on forever. When everybody will have bought Swiss bond, there is no way to make money by selling a bigger principle to somebody stupider. Basically, it's what we call a ''ponzi scheme'' (we use the money of the new investors to pay the older investors). It always ended bad.
no, there's another explanation. LONDON rehypothecation.
When suddenly every bond can be treated like 10 before you even BEGIN to shove them into margin-trading accounts as collateral then suddenly high prices and low (negative) yields make sense. You're simply not understanding what the bonds are being used for.
When every bond is worth 10 or more as units of margin-collateral and London allows virtually unlimited rehypothecation this explains everything.
Smart money left the market a while back.
Trust fiduciaries at your own risk.
If you are trying to eek out that last little bit of profit before the market folds up like a cheap ass Bedouin tent, you are a packing a pair, hooked on gambling or a complete fool.
If you are a regular ZH reader and are still playing in this minefield, you should not be surprised at what becomes of your portfolio.
"...folds up like a cheap ass Bedouin tent..."
Actually, I suspect that Bedouin tents are quite robust. Sandstorms and all...
War comng in the middle east..
Russia moving fleet into Tartus
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/russia-to-send-warships-to-syria-report...
Window dressing.
Whenever I see a Friday risk rally, I think that people are frontrunning the inevitable Sunday announcement from the ECB telling us about the new program that will save everything.
http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/
No explanation for today italian market found. I guess that there has been some indication by bank of italy to save Draghi reputation.
The REAL sin about a day like today is all the huge stock option grants that are being exercied and all the hundreds of millions if not billions of dollars the execs are sucking out of their companies today while the average schmo is adding to his mutual fund of buying something on emotion. the market is like a giant funnel in which all the little schmucks pump their hard earned bucks into some "managed money" account or mutual fund and all those dollars just come out the other side into the hands of corporate execs who walk away with millions. just check today's sec announced filings, just like most other days, the wealth of the general public is going out the back door.
It means the yield curve is steepening - a bullish sign of the economy.
Woooooooooooo Oil up nearly 5 bucks here we goooo!
Very, very awesome for this economy.
Rolling over on the floor!
They got it all figured out all right.
The drums are beating.
Actually, the swiss have some peg issues (as noted above by many). How about Danish Treasuries? They'd tell us how broad the pattern. Sadly, I can't find a quote. Can anyone?
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GDGB2YR:IND
Yields rising today but still negative.
- 0.5%, yeah... that's a really safe place for your money. Gold might not yield anything but at least 0% is not a negative number.
But you can EAT Swiss bonds!
Wait a minute...
Aren't they the bonds with the holes in them? Actually... yes they are... -0.5% money holes.
"It's always brightest before the dusk."
How'd you like them for onions?
All it is saying is that over the next two years, the Swiss Franc will appreciate tremendously against the euro and the dollar. Why has this only become apparent in the last couple of months. I think we knew about the euro -- but the dollar? Now that is a premonition!
w t f - http://flic.kr/p/bm3HdM
forget something?
There's a CHF / EUR peg in place.
Thomas Stolper actually caught a falling knife! For 200pips so far anyway. His muppets must be pleased.
A clock is right twice a day.
And even a blind squirrel occasionally finds a bird in the bush.
Stoper's target was 1.30.
To answer the question, what do Swiss bonds know? Absolutely nothing....
Just another manipulated market. Nothing to learn from it.
Swiss bonds "see" it coming:
“A major housing bubble in Canada may cause international distress,” says Neville Bennetthttp://brazilianbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/real-estate-bubble...
http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=italy+housing+bubble&view=detail&id=...