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What Do Treasuries Know That Stocks Don't?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With the end of Operation Twist and a dismal multi-year low print in ISM, it seems Treasuries are a little less sanguine at the hope for a week-/month-/quarter-start bid for risk than equities. 10Y rates are back near Friday's lows while S&P 500 e-mini futures are 40-45 points higher. Does Operation Twist+ have that much impact? Is 'bad' good once again for QE hopes?

 

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Mon, 07/02/2012 - 10:35 | 2580575 mrktwtch2
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something is rotten in denmark!!..lol

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 10:51 | 2580632 Comay Mierda
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something is rumored in denmark. and all of europe too

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 10:36 | 2580578 dereksatkinson
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The PMI print should give the Fed the necessary cover to finally pull the trigger.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 10:38 | 2580586 SilverTree
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No, just announce that the trigger may need to be pulled.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 10:47 | 2580623 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

japan circa 1989 w/ twist

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 10:39 | 2580595 bdc63
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no way ... not with the equities markets are high as they are.  the only thing the FED cares about is the stock market.  period.  not jobs.  not pmi.  not freakin 'inflation expectations'.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 10:50 | 2580629 sosoome
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the only thing the FED cares about is the stock market and bank capitalization.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:11 | 2580690 CheapBastard
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<<the only thing the FED cares about is the stock market and banker bonuses>>

 

There. I fixed it for you.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:57 | 2580795 CrashisOptimistic
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June was the last chance.  Too close to the election now to risk Fed loss of independence from government control, which would result when the party harmed by action takes power, as it eventually will.  They will remove Fed independence subsequently.

Nope, Fed chairmen have always cared about independence from government control more than anything else.  And there is also the clear evidence that Bernanke now doubts QE achieves the intention. 

So no.  He's done til November, when he may have to respond to fiscal cliff emergencies.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 10:36 | 2580579 bdc63
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don't you worry ... that blue line and red line will be kissing cousins again by the end of the week

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 10:38 | 2580589 JuicyGrabs
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QE rumor is just a scam to keep market pumped. Bernanke keeps feeding it although he knows it won`t happen this year. FED and Gov is trying to do perception control.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 10:39 | 2580593 LawsofPhysics
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Go ahead, pop the treasury bubble, please, I dare you.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 10:44 | 2580616 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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The Treasurie knows as long as all eyes are on Europe it will get it's low funding costs kept, and the Fed knows that due to US corporations making most of their money overseas, it can pump them up because Americans have pensions that rely on these same corporations, giving the corporations the ability to submit Americans to Stockholm Syndrome because Americans think they need these corporations to survive.

Is this what you meant, Tyler? 

Or did you mean, "Deflation any minute now!"

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 10:48 | 2580624 LawsofPhysics
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Correct.  In the meantime and in the absence of any real rule of laws and contracts, giving us more time to prepare, thanks ZH!

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:19 | 2580710 derek_vineyard
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real rates of return on treasuries are a thing of the past

this forces 'risk on' for everyone even if they don't know it----- ie  ANY stock is risk on ------ japan's nekkei went from 39,000 to 8,000 when its interest rates fell to 1%........................difference here is that wealth is defined as the stock averages, so their elevation is the primary directive and all forced markets eventually collapse

but dont watch water boil waiting for the carnage......your sanity is worth more than this bull shit

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 10:39 | 2580594 l1b3rty
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Free Silver @ Silver Liberation Army!

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 10:49 | 2580627 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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The shot heard round the world:

by Mr Lennon Hendrix
on Wed, 04/07/2010 - 14:12
#290329
So Max Keiser is killing it and he cleared some shit up for me.  We have until $20.92 to buy silver (this is its nominal high), because that is when JPM should be done unloading their shorts (more specifically the shorts they inherited from Bear Sterns).  Once that happens, the whole market should capitulate, and then silver to the MOON (we have our own Argonaut, GET THE FUCK IN THE BOAT PEOPLE!) followed by gold and oil.  By my calculations we will reach $20.92 at mid summer, then the market should capuitulate for 2-6 weeks, depending on how bad peak oil is right now, and then KABOOM!  Anyway, my two sense...I could be wrong. MB anyone?
Also, a low of $8.88 during the "crisis".  They are saying something.  They are saying 'We will run this town for infinaty'.  I cry ISIS!  Then I go to war with these damn JPM "M"arket "M"anipulators.  Join me!  BUY SILVER!

http://lhmarketwatch.blogspot.com/2010/12/silver-shell-game-over.html

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 10:58 | 2580655 cifo
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December 13, 2010????? WTF?

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 12:28 | 2580886 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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on Wed, 04/07/2010 - 14:12

And my first post on Zero Hedge was, "Buy Silver!" in February of 2010.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 10:40 | 2580600 HD
HD's picture

Front running QE has become a great American pass time - up there with baseball and morbid obesity...

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 10:46 | 2580621 search
search's picture

C'mon, you san say it too zerohedge. Treasurys are saying DEFLATION. Markets are saying Ben won't print because China is apparently the engine of global growth so Ben might not shit where he tries to eat.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 10:48 | 2580625 Temporalist
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Ben is not a dog, Ben is a god, and gods like he and Lloyd shit wherever they want.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:02 | 2580666 search
search's picture

No Ben is not a Dog, or a God. And Lloyd isn't doing God's work. But Ben, i would argue, does shit and that shit is shit and robs value from the real productive economy, as well as fucking with unstable mrercantile states such a China.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 10:55 | 2580642 SheepDog-One
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QE 'hopes' and hopes is all that will ever be delivered.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 10:56 | 2580643 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Surprises: EZ will breakup and Ben will be found to be naked.

Non-Surprises: All of China's number are fake.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 10:58 | 2580650 Everybodys All ...
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Price discovery and fundamentals are now relics of an era when truth and justice were part of the market order. I don't know how you can discern anything from the markets of today because they are so manipulated.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 10:58 | 2580653 MrBoompi
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Some money is dumber than others.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:00 | 2580660 tarsubil
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Stocks are like a doped up strung out whore with mascara smeared across her eyes and lipstick across her cheek, stumbling with her clothes torn and all together disheveled while a guy in a fresh suit prods her along through the trash and muck of the alleyway. She'll go in the right direction until her heart gives out and she stops responding to the prods and falls flat on her face. The guy in the suit has a disturbing fondness for corpses so he won't even really mind.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:08 | 2580683 sosoome
sosoome's picture

Puttin in a bottom?

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:10 | 2580689 Bay of Pigs
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They need to get that chick on the BlowHorn before she collapses.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:32 | 2580739 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

I don't remember a time when the treasury market acted so much like it was someones little schizophrenic bitch.  Something is not right in treasuries.

Perhaps frontrunning the Fed twist operation is being unwound?

 

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 12:15 | 2580855 ebworthen
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Treasuries are being bought by:  the FED, every European, China, U.S. retirees, Funds, CALPERS, and The Smurfs.

Lots of comings and goings with short trips to AAPL and other boutique stocks for some Sunday poker.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 11:34 | 2580743 Meesohaawnee
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im so sick of hearing. QE/NO QE. . You had QE it ended Friday. OT is just QE with another name

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 12:06 | 2580789 OneTinSoldier66
OneTinSoldier66's picture

Green shoots found in Greece! And in Spain! And France! And in the US! And China! And in Japan!

 

Hurry, buy into the market quick! Those financials are going to the moon I tell ya, to the moon!

 

Long live the King Dollar and U.S. Treasuries!

 

/sarc, of course

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 12:17 | 2580865 ebworthen
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Some people run towards explosions and fires; other people run away.

People will get hurt, and the fire engines will come.

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