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What Does Friday The 13th Mean For Stocks? Art Cashin Explains

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While it is already known that the first Friday the 13th of 2012 will be very memorable, at least for France, a bigger, and more philosophical question is, whether Friday the 13th is in general unlucky for stocks. UBS' Art Cashin provides the veteran perspective, as well as unravel some false myths about the term Triskaidekaphobia.

Triskaidekaphobia – It’s Friday the 13th and all of the negative myths surrounding it pop up. Friday the 13th actually has a mild upward bias in stock market history. It’s up 55% to 60% of the time.

 

We think the negative myth may be based on a novel published back around 1910. It told of a plot by an evil stock trader (ain’t they all) to crash the market on Friday the 13th.

 

Prior to 1988, floor brokers used to have fun with the myth by declaring Friday the 13th “Hat Day”. Brokers would don silly and bizarre headgear pretending to ward off evil spirits.

 

It was colorful and a bit of fun. But, shortly after the 1987 crash, we had the biggest and maybe wildest “Hat Day” ever. Inspired by a sense of post-crash survival, it featured a parade on the floor and best in class awards.

 

Unfortunately, there was a newspaper “stringer” on the floor. He was doing an interview with a specialist who had gone out of business in the crash by making “too good a market”. The stringer would later sell a piece to the papers called “The Fat Cats In The Hats”. It was a caustic misrepresentation of Hat Day. We have not had one since.

 

Without the lucky charm of “Hat Day”, there were occasional problems. On Friday, October 13, 1989, the attempted leveraged buyout of UAL collapsed and the Dow plunged 190 points (equal to 860 points today).

 

By a numerical oddity, the 13th of the month falls on a Friday more than any other day. In the last 400 years, we have had 688 Friday the Thirteenths.

 

This year is especially symmetrical. There are three - today; April 13th and July 13th. Those dates are exactly 13 weeks apart (Hat tip USA Today).

 

One last note on Friday the 13th. Triskaidekaphobia is actually fear of the number 13. Fear of Friday the 13th is actually Friggatriskaidekaphobia but that sounds like something that would cause your mom to give you an oral rinse with Lifebuoy. So, Dr. Donald Dossey coined the term paraskevidekatriaphobia. He says that by the time you manage to pronounce it, your phobia’s gone.

Now we have one more notable event to add: Europe's first of many step-wise refamiliarizations with reality and gravity. And to keep the symmetry, should we pencil in that by July 13th France will have a B-handle rating?

 

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Fri, 01/13/2012 - 13:20 | 2062116 bewst
bewst's picture

FrAAAnce next bitchez

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 13:25 | 2062149 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

Throw GREECE ITALY Et Al out of EURO now!

 

This shit is killing the world financial system, and killing ordinary families that have nothing to do with the Frauds going on.

 

Get this fucking thing over with already, Bitchez...

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 13:26 | 2062151 Let them eat iPads
Let them eat iPads's picture

FrAAnce, bitchez!

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 13:27 | 2062160 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

Thank you Mr Chairman Bernanke!

Because of your wise fiscal policies and low interest rates, I was able to refinance at a 15 year fixed rate of 3.125%

God Bless you Sir

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 15:35 | 2062741 Rollerball
Rollerball's picture

Con-grad-u-lat-ion-z!

Your rent for a depreciating pre-foreclosure post-office address, held at the Fed and amortized with risk-less carry, is nominally less expensive to you.

Whoopee!

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 13:55 | 2062258 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

Quantum Leaping Frogs Gone Wild http://bible.cc/revelation/16-13.htm

http://masonrydesign.blogspot.com/2011/05/friday-13th-and-masonry.html

...hmmm King of France (TzarCozy wants EU President) http://euobserver.com/18/26954 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/6582837/EU-Presidency-candidate-Herman-Van-Rompuy-calls-for-new-taxes.html

...and (Hitler Youth) Pope http://www.raidersnewsupdate.com/petrus.htm 

S&P (Sarkozy & Pope) Friday 13th down grade Dickens. Lol, Mr. Pip says, Artful Dodgers ...govern yuh and yer all terrorist now. Ah ha ha haaa. To the Temple and on with the peace, no quarter. That train has sailed. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVUZYtg6Bus

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 14:31 | 2062464 johnu1978
johnu1978's picture

I hope so!

 

-John
Kalispell's Depression
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcSIZg4wlgo

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 13:21 | 2062123 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

'And to keep the symmetry, should we pencil in that by July 13th France will have a B-handle rating?'

Only if the US has a junk rating. Art was scientific as usual.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 13:22 | 2062128 SDRII
SDRII's picture

awaiting doug kass break in reiterating (relaying) Bens call...3...2...1..

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 13:23 | 2062134 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

FrBBnce.  

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 13:24 | 2062140 Lazarus Long
Lazarus Long's picture

Friday the 13 in france was the day the knights templers were destroyed. pay back is a bitch france

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 13:31 | 2062173 MrBinkeyWhat
MrBinkeyWhat's picture

Beat me to it. Just FYI it was Friday October 13, 1307.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 13:24 | 2062142 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

In Italy... It's "Friday the 17th" that's considered unlucky... Not sure about France...

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 13:25 | 2062147 Vaiman
Vaiman's picture

I think France has developed a phobia of Fitch!  

Would that be Fitchatriskaidekaphobia?

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 13:54 | 2062250 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Fitchatriskaidekaphobia ,my new word of the month...almost as good as rehypothecationphobia...

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 13:30 | 2062169 SDRII
SDRII's picture

meanwhile, while nobody was watching the drone strikes are ramping up in Paksitan and there is a "democracy" crisis with Musharaff allegedly on the road home. Pakistan in flames over/under spread tightening to? 

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 13:33 | 2062180 lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

Art reminisces over a bottle of oral rinse while making a newspaper hat with his USA Today.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 13:35 | 2062190 Ostapuk Ivano
Ostapuk Ivano's picture

I think Sara Eisen is still hotter than Trish. But both are better than Erin.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 14:03 | 2062317 DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

To really go there, you'd have to separate catagories a little - beauty, sexy, smart, nice and so on.  My fave to be locked up with for awhile would be LisaM - but I'd not mind any of them.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 13:45 | 2062232 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

EscAArgot, bitchez!

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 13:48 | 2062243 Savonarola
Savonarola's picture

I like Art Cashin.  He reminds me of when I started to work on Wall St in the early 1980's.

I caught the tail-end of the old guard of brokers and salesmen that were around since WWII (and some from The Great Depression).  They knew alot about everything and some of them had worked up from the cage. Most went to City College at night.

They may have made good bucks but they did not flash it. They wore simple Brooks Brothers suits and a Timex watch. They went to modest places for dinner or drinks after work.... places like Sakele, or Harry's.  Even CEOs back then would hang out with the hoi polloi.  It was a great group of guys. 

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 14:02 | 2062310 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

CNBC / ONION headline: Obama Seeks Power to Shrink Government

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 14:39 | 2062487 Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

Wolf donning sheeps clothing. Not even.

This is the in your face transparent crap that makes you crazy or roll on the floor laughing.

Depends on whether you think it matters or not.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 14:08 | 2062353 non_anon
non_anon's picture

pump and dump

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 14:26 | 2062448 Meremortal
Meremortal's picture

And the beat goes on. 10yr sticking at 1.85. I'll short it at 1.82, and again at 1.77. 

Gold is acting like it smelled something rotten. Wonder what that could be.

Fri, 01/13/2012 - 15:36 | 2062743 Roland99
Roland99's picture

Had a black cat cross the street in front of me while at lunch today.  Should I be scared?

 

Consider this, too: it's the 2nd time in my life that this has happened!

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