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What Does Friday The 13th Mean For Stocks? Art Cashin Explains
While it is already known that the first Friday the 13th of 2012 will be very memorable, at least for France, a bigger, and more philosophical question is, whether Friday the 13th is in general unlucky for stocks. UBS' Art Cashin provides the veteran perspective, as well as unravel some false myths about the term Triskaidekaphobia.
Triskaidekaphobia – It’s Friday the 13th and all of the negative myths surrounding it pop up. Friday the 13th actually has a mild upward bias in stock market history. It’s up 55% to 60% of the time.
We think the negative myth may be based on a novel published back around 1910. It told of a plot by an evil stock trader (ain’t they all) to crash the market on Friday the 13th.
Prior to 1988, floor brokers used to have fun with the myth by declaring Friday the 13th “Hat Day”. Brokers would don silly and bizarre headgear pretending to ward off evil spirits.
It was colorful and a bit of fun. But, shortly after the 1987 crash, we had the biggest and maybe wildest “Hat Day” ever. Inspired by a sense of post-crash survival, it featured a parade on the floor and best in class awards.
Unfortunately, there was a newspaper “stringer” on the floor. He was doing an interview with a specialist who had gone out of business in the crash by making “too good a market”. The stringer would later sell a piece to the papers called “The Fat Cats In The Hats”. It was a caustic misrepresentation of Hat Day. We have not had one since.
Without the lucky charm of “Hat Day”, there were occasional problems. On Friday, October 13, 1989, the attempted leveraged buyout of UAL collapsed and the Dow plunged 190 points (equal to 860 points today).
By a numerical oddity, the 13th of the month falls on a Friday more than any other day. In the last 400 years, we have had 688 Friday the Thirteenths.
This year is especially symmetrical. There are three - today; April 13th and July 13th. Those dates are exactly 13 weeks apart (Hat tip USA Today).
One last note on Friday the 13th. Triskaidekaphobia is actually fear of the number 13. Fear of Friday the 13th is actually Friggatriskaidekaphobia but that sounds like something that would cause your mom to give you an oral rinse with Lifebuoy. So, Dr. Donald Dossey coined the term paraskevidekatriaphobia. He says that by the time you manage to pronounce it, your phobia’s gone.
Now we have one more notable event to add: Europe's first of many step-wise refamiliarizations with reality and gravity. And to keep the symmetry, should we pencil in that by July 13th France will have a B-handle rating?
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FrAAAnce next bitchez
Throw GREECE ITALY Et Al out of EURO now!
This shit is killing the world financial system, and killing ordinary families that have nothing to do with the Frauds going on.
Get this fucking thing over with already, Bitchez...
FrAAnce, bitchez!
Thank you Mr Chairman Bernanke!
Because of your wise fiscal policies and low interest rates, I was able to refinance at a 15 year fixed rate of 3.125%
God Bless you Sir
Con-grad-u-lat-ion-z!
Your rent for a depreciating pre-foreclosure post-office address, held at the Fed and amortized with risk-less carry, is nominally less expensive to you.
Whoopee!
Quantum Leaping Frogs Gone Wild http://bible.cc/revelation/16-13.htm
http://masonrydesign.blogspot.com/2011/05/friday-13th-and-masonry.html
...hmmm King of France (TzarCozy wants EU President) http://euobserver.com/18/26954
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/6582837/EU-Presidency-candidate-Herman-Van-Rompuy-calls-for-new-taxes.html
...and (Hitler Youth) Pope http://www.raidersnewsupdate.com/petrus.htm
S&P (Sarkozy & Pope) Friday 13th down grade Dickens. Lol, Mr. Pip says, Artful Dodgers ...govern yuh and yer all terrorist now. Ah ha ha haaa. To the Temple and on with the peace, no quarter. That train has sailed. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVUZYtg6Bus
I hope so!
-John
Kalispell's Depression
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcSIZg4wlgo
'And to keep the symmetry, should we pencil in that by July 13th France will have a B-handle rating?'
Only if the US has a junk rating. Art was scientific as usual.
awaiting doug kass break in reiterating (relaying) Bens call...3...2...1..
FrBBnce.
Friday the 13 in france was the day the knights templers were destroyed. pay back is a bitch france
Beat me to it. Just FYI it was Friday October 13, 1307.
In Italy... It's "Friday the 17th" that's considered unlucky... Not sure about France...
I think France has developed a phobia of Fitch!
Would that be Fitchatriskaidekaphobia?
Fitchatriskaidekaphobia ,my new word of the month...almost as good as rehypothecationphobia...
meanwhile, while nobody was watching the drone strikes are ramping up in Paksitan and there is a "democracy" crisis with Musharaff allegedly on the road home. Pakistan in flames over/under spread tightening to?
Art reminisces over a bottle of oral rinse while making a newspaper hat with his USA Today.
I think Sara Eisen is still hotter than Trish. But both are better than Erin.
To really go there, you'd have to separate catagories a little - beauty, sexy, smart, nice and so on. My fave to be locked up with for awhile would be LisaM - but I'd not mind any of them.
EscAArgot, bitchez!
I like Art Cashin. He reminds me of when I started to work on Wall St in the early 1980's.
I caught the tail-end of the old guard of brokers and salesmen that were around since WWII (and some from The Great Depression). They knew alot about everything and some of them had worked up from the cage. Most went to City College at night.
They may have made good bucks but they did not flash it. They wore simple Brooks Brothers suits and a Timex watch. They went to modest places for dinner or drinks after work.... places like Sakele, or Harry's. Even CEOs back then would hang out with the hoi polloi. It was a great group of guys.
CNBC / ONION headline: Obama Seeks Power to Shrink Government
Wolf donning sheeps clothing. Not even.
This is the in your face transparent crap that makes you crazy or roll on the floor laughing.
Depends on whether you think it matters or not.
pump and dump
And the beat goes on. 10yr sticking at 1.85. I'll short it at 1.82, and again at 1.77.
Gold is acting like it smelled something rotten. Wonder what that could be.
Had a black cat cross the street in front of me while at lunch today. Should I be scared?
Consider this, too: it's the 2nd time in my life that this has happened!