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What Does Oil Know That Stocks Don't?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With West Texas Intermediate crude oil trading with an $80 handle, near two year lows, while stocks remain within a few percent of their four-year highs, one has to question just what it is that stocks believe about our bright new future of growth and demand that the all-important energy markets do not. Between Europe's recession, last night's dismal China PMI, and a significantly trending rise in US unemployment claims, it seems more likely that the global demand picture painted by the oil market is a better reflection of reality than the earnings/multiple picture painted by the nominal price of US equities. We know that bad is good when it comes to the front-running of Bernanke's print button but wouldn't bad being good raise the USD-nominal price of oil also?

 

 

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Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:33 | 2546721 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Not just black gold, gold gold and just about anything else dug out of the ground or grown.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:42 | 2546761 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

no one, no thing, knows anything right now. and it shall remain that way until there is a reset.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:55 | 2546812 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Either way, you will still need energy to do or grow anything, including a reset.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:06 | 2546881 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

zombies need to drive and ammo to fire, for the reset apocalypse. but some of that won't be transacted in fiat. some of it will be exchanged for lives and some for bullets. 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:14 | 2546909 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

Market prices for many commodities are being are being artificially influenced with derivatives.

For instance, demand for physical gold is enormous but the price drops. 

This setup will work until assets available for sale at artificially low prices dries-up.

Supply and demand is being decoupled from market prices in many cases breaking market functionality.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:15 | 2546941 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

Drop in oil from $105 to current levels is more stimulative for the ecomomy than ANYTHING else (Fed or otherwise).

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:31 | 2547020 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Right, that must be why so many firms are hiring.  < sarc off >.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:13 | 2547260 JimBowie1958
JimBowie1958's picture

Could it be that the financial industry is suffering from a kind of financial cramp? The lack of credit is turning the economy downward and the downward economy is discouraging banks from extending credit?

This would also seem to encourage banks to put their funds into more secure objects, or at least that look more secure. So bonds might look attractive now, for our banks and the European banks and governments also. Wouldnt this push up the value of USD?

If USD goes up, then wouldnt that make stocks denominated in USD go up and gold go down when priced in USD?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 12:42 | 2547646 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

A strong dollar making stocks go up?  Really?  Someone else want to educate this guy, I don't have the time.

My money is on the rest of the actual producers, creators, and innovators realizing that financial sector has been fucking stealing the value of our labor for fucking years.  These paper-pushing fuckers add no real value, let the fuckers die.  Just now realizing that a stable monetary system requires that there are real fucking consequences for bad behavior are we?  Welcome to the real world, paper and bullshit promises are dead.  You have nothing to fear unless the real value of your labor is zero.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 12:48 | 2547675 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Agree with the sentiment of the rant and all, but just to nitpick: a strong dollar can benefit "value-add" middlemen who do nothing but buy cheap imports, mark them up, and resell them. 

The whole damn problem with economics is there're two sides to everything.  A business like The Container Store or Pier 1 might do better with a strong dollar.  If those $20 woven baskets from India costs go from $1.50 to $0.75, that's an extra potential profit.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:17 | 2548069 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Oil and stocks know the same thing: it's an election year.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:35 | 2548140 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Contradictory statement there dude.  How will anyone shop at those stores if they have been laid off because it is cheaper to manufacture in another country?  FAIL.  Wages fucking matter.  If your customer is broke, guess what, so are you.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 17:37 | 2548891 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

That's stuff I didn't comment on, but I know you like to be a dick about things if anyone ever disagrees with your proclaimations.

The big problem with virtually ALL business in the USA at the moment is that the customer is broke.  Duh.

What do you expect from a concerted effort to drive down wages for 40 years?

Even a blind deaf dumb squirrel finds a nut now and again.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 16:05 | 2548544 JimBowie1958
JimBowie1958's picture

A strong dollar making stocks go up?  Really? 

Well, foreign investment would be drawn to American stocks if the USD is going up as they get a double benefit from increase in the stock value times the increase in the currency value relative to the native currency of the investor.

I have the impression that most stock trading today is done with short term gains and losses in mind and relatively few invest with an eye on the value of the company stock over more than a few years at most. So wouldnt that make the underlying economic performance diminish in impact on the day to day prices of stock?

By analogy, say I buy and sell used cars between dealerships, why do I care if the car works long after the lemon law expires for that sale? I have made my money and from a finincial/profit perspective, it impacts me very little if the used car from time to time turns out to be a lemon.

The folks buying stocks today leave me with the impression it is all about buying low and selling high TODAY with little regard for classic long term investment. So yes, it would seem that such traders would benefit from a rise in the USD value and very plausibly so.

But obviously I am not a proffessional trader, just merely a diletante, so I could be totally wrong. If so it would be appreciated if someone could tell me why my thoughts here are off target.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:32 | 2547033 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

Exactomundo. The problem is that at any wiff of growth speculators will pump the price back into recession. It happens every time and there is no way out.

 

God bless America

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:52 | 2547077 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

:post moved:

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:55 | 2547158 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Who derives the big benefit from cheap OIL? 

If gas prices at the pump aren't affected, it's not immediately clear what kind of stimulus that means to the USA.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:09 | 2548042 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

wholesale gas at 2.55+ -....should be 2.95 +- at the pump....3 at the most

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:11 | 2546898 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

-

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 15:01 | 2548228 CPL
CPL's picture

> including a reset.

Very true.  A car needs breaks to slow down a metric tonne of steel traveling at 120kmph, the energy to create the friction has to come from somewhere.  

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:57 | 2546835 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

If you can print money, then you can control prices somewhat with what you buy with the printed money until the money dump is internalized by the system. Sort of like pouring solvent into a super saturated solution. There will be local low concentrations where the solvent is dumped before the system tends towards equilibrium.

Printed money is being used to buy stocks but not oil? Printed money is being used to short oil? Who knows?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:01 | 2546860 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Not quite.  You can control prices with printed paper so long as there are sellers.  When no-one wants to sell you their assets or commodities because the paper is worthless, then you have a fucking problem.  History shows this over and over.

Monetary systems last only as long as there is real fucking consequences for bad or unethical behavior (where is John Corzine?).  When the faith in paper is lost, you are fucking done.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:05 | 2546883 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

That would be like the super saturated default.

http://youtu.be/0wifFbGDv4I

Before default, you can add solvent to the system. After default (you can literally flip the flask upside down and nothing will happen), the system doesn't so much care about the solvent anymore.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:31 | 2547030 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Total bullshit, especially since the "paper" you refer to is imaginary.  It is a fucking electron on a computer chip.  Even the solvent is fucking real, you can't do shit if you run out of solvent. Try a better metaphor.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:27 | 2547258 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

I love that metaphor so I tend to stretch it a little. Thanks for being so cordial. I do think that the original idea that you can manipulate prices "somewhat" (might want to look and see that I used that word originally to qualify the statement) with printed money is correct and somewhat obvious. Your stating of the endpoint loss of confidence in money where you are no longer able to manipulate prices doesn't really refute what I said and is a state that we are not at right now. I can buy real wealth with imaginary electrons right now. So your point about the ultimate endpoint which I agree with, doesn't really change the fact that people can print money and imaginary electrons right now and buy stocks and the price of stocks will go up right now.

And more than that! I like that metaphor because it shows how fragile the system is. And the system is very fragile right now.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 12:45 | 2547657 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

...so long as the paper is accepted.  how long do you want to keep this cicular mental masterbation going?  Let me know when you have some real solutions.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:57 | 2547171 WatchingIgnorance
WatchingIgnorance's picture

Well said.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:00 | 2546853 withnmeans
withnmeans's picture

Oil and Stocks "No Nothing", however the Banks and Big Government do. The Big Government gives the Banks the money and say run with it BOYS, prop up the market to make it look good. As for oil, the Government tells them to stay the hell out "The Price has to stay DOWN" or the people  "Ah'mmm SHEEPLE" will revolt.

 

So, over all when the MSM look at the ole BOOB tube "ALL IS GOOD" and they carry on like bee's flying their asses off but finding NO flowers.

 

Carry On Gentlemen, and Ladies ! Nothing new here !!!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:09 | 2546871 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

you are misquoting -- must be dyslexia -- i guess JPM knew everything when they made their hedges on hedges, huh? i guess Bernank knew how to correct unemployment and rescue the housing markets? the only thing they all do know is they are addicted to liquidity and must have it in order to remain addicts. that they (k)no(w).

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:50 | 2547131 withnmeans
withnmeans's picture

Thank you Vast-Dom, Hmm 2 things... Yes, I am dyslexic, it sucks. The other, thank you for pointing out my typo "know", was in a hurry "busy day for me".

Although not misquoting, the Markets are propped up for a reason, as oil is down for a reason. I was only making light of the fact that we "and I say that lightly, I don't think for the most part ZH'ers are" are being played.

We could break it down Bank by Bank, does it matter "NO"!  As for Bernanke, all of his work will not be forgotten in the annals of time, to be picked apart by scholars to find out what went wrong. 

Hind sight my friend will be 20/20

 

Good Day !

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:46 | 2546770 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Some folks that wear towels on their head and sometimes wipe their own asses with them too, are doing Obama a favor by driving the price of oil down to help his re-election efforts! Who might this be and what favor will Obama owe them back is the question?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:57 | 2546824 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Has been going on for over a hundred years,  do you have a fucking point or should you moniker be changed to "obvious man".

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:01 | 2547194 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

I am sorry that you feel that way, if I woke up and looked at your fat wife everyday too, I would fucking hate myself too!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:05 | 2547224 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

What an intellectual response. Thanks for confirming that you are just another idiot troll.

 

Don't like the truth?  Try the blue pill next time.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:59 | 2546851 battle axe
battle axe's picture

The real question is, "What does Exxon Mobil know that we do not know?" Lulling the US populace to sleep before we wake up to Israel/Iran? Only the Shadow knows (that would be Big Oil). 

Sun, 06/24/2012 - 18:07 | 2556463 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

What you think is big oil is nothing more than a pimple on the but of an elephant. Saudi Aramco is ten times bigger than Exxon and Chevron combined. All of "big oil" combined is about 5% of the world's petroleum market. 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:01 | 2546863 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

Oil knows that there is an election coming up soon.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:32 | 2547036 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

But what does Oil care who gets "elected?" The dogs are fighting, but they're all owned by Michael Vic.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:09 | 2547228 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Oil scarcity will remain regardless of who is elected.

Oil scarcity crushes the economy, which crushes oil consumption, which lowers the price.  If economic activity dares to increase, the price will viciously spike once more and smash the attempt to increase.

This is what oil scarcity looks like.  The price is determined by consumption, which will forever now be lower than demand -- and that is the key point of the whole concept.  Demand and consumption will never again be equal, which defines the failure of economic thought from now on.  If you attempt to use more, the extraction rate from the ground cannot compensate.  Up goes price to destroy the attempt.  When the attempt fails, down goes price.

It is this which has caused the destruction of the planet's economy, and it's forever.  It is Occam's Razor -- the most simple and straightforward of explanations.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:35 | 2547054 jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

Stocks know that inflation is coming.  Quickly.  

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:19 | 2546974 Stochdoc
Stochdoc's picture

Large increases in supply and reduced demand = much lower prices.  We saw this movie in the 1980s.

 

Plus, Saudi incentives to keep the pressure on Iran and Russia thereby impacting their ability to support that asshole Assad.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:39 | 2547391 rotagen
rotagen's picture

The one post that sums it up...someone already made.  Oil is Real, Stocks are Fake.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:54 | 2547484 short-swap
short-swap's picture

I think it is interesting to note that Oil 'decoupled' from equities right around the time that Oil was rising so high that even the mainstream media was calling out 0bama for lack of action regarding higher gas prices. It was around this time that b0 said it was 'speculators' causing the spike in prices and that the prez couldn't really do anything about it. Coincidentally....the price of Oil and Gasoline started to fall dramatically....Saudi Arabian side-deals aside...

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:32 | 2546722 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

It knows how to go down when needed for one.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:34 | 2546725 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

well at least stocks are up

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:44 | 2546769 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Have you ever seen a water balloon slingshot?  That's what the market is but instead of shooting up it's pointing straight at the ground...

And they are still stretching.

 

http://youtu.be/zNe2w3kXRO4

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:34 | 2547047 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Wow - there's a macho way to spend time in the local park.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:34 | 2546724 CreativeDestructor
CreativeDestructor's picture

with so many what does [____] know that stocks don't, better question is what do stocks know that no-one else on this planet does?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:36 | 2546739 CreativeDestructor
CreativeDestructor's picture

and i'll answer myself: stocks know fuckin'hope. that's tight fuckin'hope!!! Hope can't be measured by dcf models, it's just something you have when you look in the eye of Benocide.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:10 | 2546913 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

Also called "faith".

 

I'm pretty sure there's not a printing press for that yet (e.g., the beatings will continue until morale improves).

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:35 | 2546727 mrktwtch2
mrktwtch2's picture

the storm clouds are coming again..who has a big enough umbella??..besides the usual suspects..

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:35 | 2546729 CuriousPasserby
CuriousPasserby's picture

Can it be that the stock market, like the gold market, is being manipulated by the Fed? Nah, not in America!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:36 | 2546730 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

front-running of Bernanke's print button

Didn't the results of this week's FOMC meeting indicate that Bernanke will not "print"? Extending Operation Twist for a modest dollar amount was a pretty meager bone to throw to the markets.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:35 | 2546732 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Oil knows that it will never get a NYFed bid.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:35 | 2546734 the 300000000th...
the 300000000th percent's picture

Oil is REAL, stocks are FAKE

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:55 | 2546813 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

real asset that needs to be stored.  and currently, there is a record amount of oil being held at cushing by the so-called "evil speculators".  stocks are simply the last to price anything in.  when they do, they do in a hurry.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:58 | 2546842 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

LMFAO!!!!!!

 

You speak as if "price discovery" is actually being allowed??!!?!?!?!

Too fucking funny, can you say "mark to fantasy accounting"?  I knew you could.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:11 | 2546914 Jethro
Jethro's picture

I designed a site plan for a "smallish" tank farm ( less than 10 tanks) in Cushing a little over a year ago.  The tanks are massive!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:11 | 2546920 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

Real question: If oil is real (and falling) then what about other commodities (e.g., gold)?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:20 | 2546980 augustusgloop
augustusgloop's picture

apparently XOM, and to a lesser extent CVX, are exempt from underlying commodity prices, unlike the rest of the NON-DOW extractors.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:37 | 2546738 john_connor
john_connor's picture

commodities are usually a leading indicator for equities.

If I was gaming I would go long CRB basket and short equities

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:11 | 2546918 Hohum
Hohum's picture

In 2008, oil started its slide in June/July.  Stocks in September.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:14 | 2546935 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

And oil went to $35.

 

I'm not thinking we see $35 in this cycle but $80 is not the bottom, IMO. Clear double top in March, now down.

 

Saudi Arabia in much better position to handle $80 oil than Iran. That's where the real pain is. OPEC under more stress at this time than any period since lat 1980s.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:05 | 2547210 chistletoe
chistletoe's picture

at $80/barrel., 98% of new discoveries are not worth the cost to obtain.

 

same thing is happening to natural gas, same thing is happening to coal.

 

The number of new projects, new wells, oil sands developmenst, pipelines, mines, Orinco heavy oil processing,

etc is dwindling down to nothing.

 

Meanwhile, the current sources, already drilled, cap ex in place, are running dry at an alarming pace.

 

Can you say "dark ages"?  I thought you could .... because not even Facebook works without power ....

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:22 | 2546989 john_connor
john_connor's picture

Yep, exactly.  One thing about going long CRB, even if it just turns out to be a high beta version of stocks, is that you are hedging against the things that are causing daily expenses to rise.  Plus it includes gold. 

 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:38 | 2546742 superbroker1
superbroker1's picture

sell gold and buy oil? kinda hedged?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:56 | 2546820 TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

I wouldn't.

When in doubt; buy more gold.

I'd stay away from oil, if buying "oil" means Barclay's ETN.  Barclay's is gonna get downgraded tonight.  Their ETN is only as good as they are; scary thought.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:38 | 2546744 Splootch
Splootch's picture

Probably just hunting a big guy that short s&p500 and long oil...likely a warmongering republican...maybe arabic one.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:38 | 2546745 Falkor
Falkor's picture

Central Bankers killed the market. :(

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:40 | 2546754 CuriousPasserby
CuriousPasserby's picture

Time to BUY, bitchez! (physical, not stocks)

I'm buying bags of 1892-1916 US silver coins that are still at close to melt value, since when the SHTF, if they call in the newer silver, such old stuff will more likely be considered numismatic and not melted down. That's the theory.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:41 | 2546757 Splootch
Splootch's picture

9.40 am... devils spotd in gbp/usd at 1.5666

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:42 | 2546762 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Enginerred by Obama till election day.  This too is another fraud on the people.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:57 | 2546828 Liquid Courage
Liquid Courage's picture

Enginerred instead of Engineered? That's the best inadvertent zinger (Fraudian Slip?) since Capitolism.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:46 | 2546776 DoctorSahn
DoctorSahn's picture

It's curious that oil prices have been going down, yet I haven't noticed any significant price reduction at the pump.

 

Oh right, they prepped us with fears of $5 gas by summer so $3.50-$4.00 would seem reasonable and Exxon will post another quarter of mega-profits and then start a PR campaign about how they are reinvesting it all in R&D. 

 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:13 | 2546931 Hohum
Hohum's picture

DoctorSahn,

If you take a longer view, oil from $10 in 1999 to $80 now.  Gasoline from $0.80/gal to $3.20/gal.  Multiple of 8, multiple of 4.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:55 | 2547156 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

Oil did a moon shot in 1999/2000. The rape was on.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:47 | 2546778 the 300000000th...
the 300000000th percent's picture

Holy shit look at silver this morning

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:49 | 2546782 CuriousPasserby
CuriousPasserby's picture

BUY!!!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:53 | 2546798 Eternal Complainer
Eternal Complainer's picture

Bought!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:09 | 2546901 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

holding

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:17 | 2546956 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

Shorted on Monday.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:51 | 2546791 kito
kito's picture

all the gold advocates beggging for ben to print....pleeeease!!! we need qe3, pleeeeaessse!!!!!........

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:56 | 2546819 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Fuck that!  Let gold move lower!  Let silver go lower!  Let this can get kicked as long as possible.  I want to stack it to the sky!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:02 | 2546866 the 300000000th...
the 300000000th percent's picture

+1 thats exactly what i am wondering before i make the big buy in, what is the floor for silver???? How bad will it get??? Will there be a last gasp big rush for robots to liquidate all their gold/silver holdings into cash to cover positions????

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:12 | 2546921 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

golds has big buying at around 1580 and silver around 27.50 we might see them back at 1600 and 28 by tonight

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:12 | 2546922 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Possibly. Take half of your cash and buy now. Get it in hand. If it craps out more, your premium is the cost of the insurance of holding it in hand and you have half your cash to buy more. If not and it recovers, wait for another dip and buy. This is not an investment for short term gains but long term insurance for an assured failure.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:35 | 2547052 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Nice triple bottom for silver at $26.50 area.  Max bottom "probably" around $20 when derivatives implode.

Tuco

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:54 | 2547970 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

That's pretty much how I see it, too, except silver 21-23.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:02 | 2546865 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Doesn't make any sense. There are no options left for this system. It is going to fail one way or another. Holding physical gold is insurance for an assured failure. You'd be stupid not to own it.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:54 | 2546800 kaa1016
kaa1016's picture

It's just like in 2008 when oil tanked right before the market. Same shit, nothing new.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:57 | 2546831 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Yep.  And like last time everyone will pile into the dollar, because the supply of dollars are finite; it is a rare breed.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:59 | 2546801 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Oil understands that it is not the lifeblood of the economy, paper is.  Bernanke and all Central Bankers understand this too, which is why they print.

Who ever has the most fiatscos at the end wins!

Rule number one.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:55 | 2546805 adr
adr's picture

Does oil know something my  gas station doesn't? Still $3.69 at my local NE Ohio stations. Pretty close to two year highs and nowhere close to the $2.60 gas was selling at the last time oil was $80 a barrel.

The oil companies have now made the price per barrel meaningless. Why not when they are selling more gasoline to foreign countries than we use in the USA.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:13 | 2546929 meatball
meatball's picture

Maybe like the airlines, the gas station owners have finally figured out that they can keep their prices up. They are both selling something many people have to buy.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:25 | 2547002 lamont cranston
lamont cranston's picture

Go South, Young Man....South Carolina, that is (My apologies to Mr Greeley). $2.96 in Greenville/Spartanburg on I-85 last week. Diesel $3.36. 

Let's see...$80/42 = $1.91/gal crude cost, refining 10-12¢, pipeline & semitruck transportation terminal to c-store, 4-5¢, total $2.05-2.08. State & fed taxes average 50¢...with a 10¢ retail markup (if lucky) $2.65-2.70.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:27 | 2547018 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Stop whining - I paid $4.15 for regular yesterday, and that's down from $4.30+ a couple of weeks ago - good deal!

The relationship between pump price and WTI seems a bit tenuous at best, and laggy as hell when WTI is falling - though it follows really quickly when WTI is going up. Maybe the fact that our local (county) wholesaler has beat price-fixing charges twice has something to do with that.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 12:20 | 2547573 lamont cranston
lamont cranston's picture

There's no such thing in 2012 as a "County Wholesaler" that determines street price. That day passed with the 1970s, unless you live in the middle of nowhere in a county with <5,000 population.

Street price is set by large corporate c-store chains like Wilco/Hess, Murphy, QT, Kangaroo, 7-11, Sheetz, etc. or supersized branded jobbers who aim to break even on mogas sales to lure the customer inside where the profit is made. 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:46 | 2547430 marathonman
marathonman's picture

A little refinery that I know is making $18/bbl crack spread and is running all domestic crude.  $18/bbl is really freaking good.  If crack spreads stay like this, bonuses are going to be nice next year.  Alas, the gasoline prices will come down as refiners work off the higher priced crude inventory and people are squeezed in the global central bank pincer.  For now I'm thankful for a job.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:41 | 2547898 ActionFive
ActionFive's picture

It just shows that they need to manipulate the price at the gas stations too.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 09:58 | 2546841 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

cheap oil is all there is left to help the economy, the last shot, the hail mary pass, the average joe saving a few bucks at the gas pump is all we got, growth is dead

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:01 | 2546862 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Unless we exchanged aapl stock for the dollar.  If we were the United States of Apple then we would be rich!  Right?

Bring those sweatshops back over here!  Give us jobs!  We want to be real slaves!  We are tired of being debt slaves!

Slavery!  Slavery!!  Slavery!!!

Come on, everybody!  You know what you want!  You want to be real slaves for the corporations!  Let's do this!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:42 | 2547084 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Kings rule!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:04 | 2547206 falak pema
falak pema's picture

divine rights for the blind and blinded rights for the rich and divine...

Now that is poetic justice. You would see a rush to the blind side like we have never witnessed in a rugby match. Non rugby players forgive my play on words. But its like a hail mary pass to a blind tight end  wide receiver in TD zone who catches it like it was Gods work. Human nature is predictable to a T from any plantation. 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:05 | 2546880 csmith
csmith's picture

Tyler has hammered away at various examples of divergence for weeks, and usually been right, as most have quickly closed. But this time I think he may be a bit off base. Oil is being dragged down by the rock bottom price of natural gas, as the arbitrage opportunity between the two is just too big. Big capital inflows to exploit gas for transportation are beginning to make a difference, hurting demand for oil at the margin.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:10 | 2546906 JohnFrodo
JohnFrodo's picture

Could it be that the smart money expects massive inflation, commodity stocks in particular are a excellent hedge.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:10 | 2546916 Paul Thomason
Paul Thomason's picture

It Probably Knows The Same As Gold? [VIDEO]>> De-Bunking The Gold Price Manipulation Conspiracy?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:11 | 2546919 ken4aub
ken4aub's picture

I assert that stocks remain higher because of the lack of volumn. The Bernank has ran-out most everyone except his 4 or 5 primary buddies, which he will call and tell them to BUY! BUY! BUY!. With the slim vol, it doesn't take much to move the market higher.....hell, if BAC buys JPM, & WFC buys C and I scratch you higher, if you'll scratch my back.....yadda yadda.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:33 | 2547038 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

I to think it is that simple. I would only add that he has requested they perform the same hammer down routine on oil that they have so successfully used on the PMs. The problem is that if you don't believe that free markets provide an important function in the economy, then you must feel they exist only as a tool to enhance central planning. Where do you think Bernanke comes down on this?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:13 | 2546934 ILoveTheWorld
ILoveTheWorld's picture

What oil knows is that in China, India, Brazil and the US a lot of brand new refineries with capacities for heavy and sour oil qualities have been completed since 2010, are being completed or built in this very moment.

There is NO BOTTLENECK anymore regarding cheaper low quality oils. So of course as long as they remain cheap enough WTI and BRENT are going to suffer, if demand in the OECD remains low.

During the Libya revolution normally with the old bottlenecks in place only Brent and WTI should have gained, but last time all crudes moved the same way. Repeat: there are no bottlenecks anymore.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:44 | 2547098 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Well, that is good news because there are no jobs anymore either.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 12:49 | 2547684 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Correct me if I'm wrong but the setup of refineries designed to refine lower grade material indicate some kind of overextension of oil supplies in general a la what the American Indians called the "second harvest", that is, picking out the undigested kernels from the shit of last night's supper?

Seriously, correct me if I'm wrong because you put forth a strong hypothesis that I know nothing about.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:16 | 2546954 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Low oil = low input prices = more profit = higher stocks!

/Krugman's thinking

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:56 | 2547169 Marginal Call
Marginal Call's picture

Cheap oil is bullish for the economy so oil down stocks up isn't divergance.  If the story is true, I have doubts if the plan would work.  $60 oil takes supply like Bakken and maybe oil sands off the market so that's a ton of extra production SA would have to ramp up to replace almost all uncoventional + the over supply.  I don't think they can do it. 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:30 | 2547026 EmileLargo
EmileLargo's picture

According to the peak oilers, we ought to be at $500 a barrel by now on the WTI. 80 bucks a barrel ain't so bad when you consider how much the Dollar has been debased in the last ten years.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:49 | 2547123 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

uh, no. Peak oilers for the most part realize that as we experience an ever growing shortage of the energy lifeblood, these will cause constant setbacks but, as we are witnessing, each set back is at a higher price than its predecessor until at some point, the ability for the regular economy to afford the fuel and its price will permanently cross.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:34 | 2547050 diogeneslaertius
diogeneslaertius's picture

destroy hydrocarbons and nuclear and people will lose as much faith in civilization as the average joe has lost in gold and silver vs paper and financial instruments...

 

oh wait

 

did i let the controlled implosion cat out of the bag?

 

no, im sorry, we were too much trouble and now we must be destroyed

 

also fuck ton of hydrocarbon recovery vectors - so we have organic movement on the cultural kick

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:36 | 2547058 diogeneslaertius
diogeneslaertius's picture

the NWO learned thier lessons back in the Gilded Age

 

we were simply too much trouble, hence NWO laboratory economies like China and Indonesia, where human life is not just cheap, its worthless - oh fuck it the growth curves are all there im just spinning my wheels

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:38 | 2547068 ekm
ekm's picture

Primary Dealer A is selling BAC to Primary Dealer B who is selling it to Primary Dealer C who sells it back to Primary Dealer A.

Traders are still under cocaine effect and have QE3 hallucinations.

As soon as they see their bonuses cut, they will run out of money to buy cocaine and they will have to come back to reality.

Give it a couple of weeks.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:39 | 2547069 Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

"Between Europe's recession, last night's dismal China PMI, and a significantly trending rise in US unemployment claims, it seems more likely that the global demand picture painted by the oil market is a better reflection of reality than the earnings/multiple picture painted by the nominal price of US equities."

Equities at levels far higher than they should be based upon economic reality are the result of trillions borrowed and spent to maintain the market at levels which they foolishly believe will garner some version of the "wealth effect" and lead to a real recovery.  Instead, it's just preventing a "reality effect" in equities.  But that will not last.

Bernanke is trying to force savings into risky investments in equities, forcing people into the Ponzi economy with below inflation rate interest rates.  Of course, if they fall for that, they will soon have their faces ripped off yet again in the bigger than 2008 crash that will come from the eventual forcing of reality on the market.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:41 | 2547080 diogeneslaertius
diogeneslaertius's picture

the central problem here

i think

is the functional expression "reflection of reality"

 

given a set of conditions that can only be described as devolving more and more on holograms and holographic models of actual things, controleld by people with a vested interest in manipulating the underlying market forces to their own ends (especially when those ends are....), the idea of actual markets dissapears.

 

the real market activity accounts for only a component of the overall vector, which is largely dominated by the feed coming out of the holographic matrix

 

 

but of course, the baseline metric is true as well and the engineered implosion of the logistics is obviously driving it

 

but simply pointing this out isnt enough, simply poitning out the fraud of bozone asset classes isnt enough, we must get up to our elbows in the guts of this rigged game

 

and i know we will

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:42 | 2547089 diogeneslaertius
diogeneslaertius's picture

the global economy is being strangled to death like its five seconds after Waterloo

 

with the most problematic (read: free/potentially free) targets up first on the chopping block

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 10:55 | 2547151 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Everthing good is bad for you !    Everthing that taste like shit, cum or stem cells and raw eggs is good for you !   I don't see any disconnect  from Socialist values imposed from above, here ?  WTP (what's the problemo ?)       Monedas      1929       Comedy Jihad Reality Check Tour

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:06 | 2547209 Monedas
Monedas's picture

While the world economy is slowing, the Ponzi masters are going to use their funny money to buy up all the PMs and stocks for the State Capitalism (Communism, Socialism, Fascism, State Capitalism .... The troika is now a foursome !) in your future ?     It's kind of like   TRASH CASH FOR GOLD AND STOCKS ?       Monedas     1929       Comedy Jihad Two Cent Tour

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:29 | 2547359 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

if the Muslim Brotherhood takes power in Egypt that's bad news for the military (if their military is like ours there goes a whole lot of oil DEMAND) and good news for the oil markets, as Egypt will sell that oil  to buy food and medicine. multiply the military slowdown across the entire ME and you get a significant reduction in demand, and more oil goes to market. and in the US demand is down as well.

but commodities as a investment class are facing a bear market, led by housing, poor poor Bernanke, he can't hold housing prices up forever. demographics, overcapacity, an aging stock of existing housing which simply isn't worth fixing or maintaining. pretty soon the american brotherhood will sell THEIR assets for food and medicine.

talk about a margin call.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:53 | 2547481 short-swap
short-swap's picture

I think it is interesting to note that Oil 'decoupled' from equities right around the time that Oil was rising so high that even the mainstream media was calling out 0bama for lack of action regarding higher gas prices. It was around this time that b0 said it was 'speculators' causing the spike in prices and that the prez couldn't really do anything about it. Coincidentally....the price of Oil and Gasoline started to fall dramatically....Saudi Arabian side-deals aside...

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:59 | 2547502 Arnold Ziffel
Arnold Ziffel's picture

Bank stocks are up also today. I don't see the Fed doing anyingthing significant until banker bonuses (or stock holdings) are at risk.  That's how I see it.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:15 | 2547780 covert
covert's picture

oil demand has been dropping along with employment.

http://covert.ias3.com/expose/

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:28 | 2547834 Nader_Nazemi
Nader_Nazemi's picture

Thank you for that informative piece. 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:33 | 2547846 marco1324
marco1324's picture

Everything i s  s  l    o   w     i       n      g          d            o             w                       n

 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:40 | 2547889 Itch
Itch's picture

Supply & demand vs fluff.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 14:43 | 2548163 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Just checked, WTI at pennies above $77, the last time oil was at 77 gas was at $2.50.

So, why is the Chevron on Court Street by the mall (Medford Oregon) here still at $4.99.9 per gallon for premium unleaded? 

You read that right, FOUR dollars and 99.9 cents a gallon.  Someone's ass needs to be in jail. 

Fri, 06/22/2012 - 17:06 | 2552487 michigan independant
michigan independant's picture

Urals crude, Russia’s chief export blend, slumped 68 percent since its all-time high in July to $45.56 a barrel, below the $70 average required to balance this year’s budget, as the worst global economic crisis since the Great Depression cut demand. Proxy wars are fun.

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