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What To Expect From Bernanke At J-Hole
Expectations for tomorrow's J-Hole speech by the venerable Ben Bernanke vary from the mundane "things-we-can-still-do; monitoring-situation" to the exuberant "we'll-print-our-way-out-of-this-mess-no-matter-what-and-I've-got-your-back-for-anything-more-than-a-1%-drop-in-the-Russell". We suspect, like Morgan Stanley's Vince Reinhart that a lot of people are going to be grossly disappointed as the FOMC (C for Committee) meeting is so close and the election being just around the corner means playing-down any miracle-making. Instead we suspect it will be more of the same - disappointment in economic performance, could do better, closely monitoring, Fed-has-tools; i.e. a replay of most of his recent speeches in tone. Reinhart does see some room for surprise though - especially on conditional policy rules (and the potential problems with over-reaching their mandate).
Vincent Reinhart, Morgan Stanley: The Message from the Mountains
We have had low expectations for significant news from Chairman Bernanke’s Jackson Hole address for some time for two reasons.
- First, he respects that the Federal Open Market Committee is a committee. That is, monetary policy actions are group decisions and it is inappropriate to front run the outcome of a democratic process.
- Second, he wants to keep a relatively low profile during an election year when the Federal Reserve is already a hot-button campaign issue. His speeches and testimonies over the past few months—even his semi-annual report on monetary policy—have been short, factual, and uneventful.
What does he have to do? He has to convey that the Fed has been disappointed in the economy’s performance, that policymakers are inclined to provide additional accommodation soon unless there is a significant and sustained improvement, and that they will closely monitor the situation. Essentially, all he needs to do is repeat portions of the statement and minutes from the July-August meeting. Along the way, he will highlight that it is a beautiful venue for a conference, that they are about to hear interesting papers, and that many fiscal challenge remain unanswered.
The main possibility for surprise is if he addresses the ongoing work within the Fed on conditional policy rules. The last set of minutes referred several times to discussions of rules and more open-end policy commitments. Up to now, the Fed has been using its policy instruments in an unconditional way, in that it announces a program of fixed duration and fixed amount. Most academic work, as will be discussed in the formal program at Jackson Hole, suggests that a rule linking the policy instrument to economic outcomes or the outlook performs better.
The idea is that the Fed could agree, for instance, to keep the funds rate target at zero as long as they have an economic forecast that is short of their mission. The problem is that the mission at the heart of Fed policy-making is ambiguous. In the Federal Reserve Act, the Congress tells the Fed to foster maximum employment and stable prices but is silent on how to weigh deviations from the two objectives or how quickly those deviations should be eliminated. The monetary policymakers at the Fed are a diverse group of people who disagree on how to fill this silence. If they can come to terms with this issue, then they can offer more open-ended assurance to financial market participants and the public at large.
Chairman Bernanke is unlikely to offer a Solomonic solution, but his speech would be more interesting if he relayed where they are in the process.
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Dovish
Speech? Irrelevant.
Bernanke is simply checking in with the puppemasters for further instructions on Obama, who is unelectable without them.
On the same trip, the puppetmasters will sign and mail their Wyoming tax returns.
Bernanke will have to deal with this;
BREAKING NEWS:
China and Germany will no longer do business in USD, Euros and Yuan preferred;
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48838061
Say it isn't soooooo. There have been many of us pointing out the real crisis for some time now. The games have begun, for those of you doomers out there waiting for the breaking point? SNAP!
The A-Hole from J-Hole
Ben is going to make a big announcement: "A little blue pill" that will correct economic disfunctionally: the new pill is called e-congra.
[Secret] Shh! Actually it's just a placebo, but the public won't know!
[e-congra side affects] May cause the value of your currency to devalve. May cause stagflation, and cause swelling of the federal gov't. Use caution before starting a daily e-congra regimen, and discuss this with non-keysian economist first.
J-Lo's hole?
LOOOL.
BREAKING NEWS:
China and Germany will no longer do business in USD, Euros and Yuan preferred;
forget about QE, this story and others like it are the reason behind gold's continued strength
It's amazing! It's extraordinary! It's stupendous! Yes folks, it's the Jackson Hole Circus..
Step right up, step right up, times a wastin’ folks. Tell ya what I’m gonna do! You don’t hafta knock’em off. Tip’em flat. Four flat gets you choice. One win’s all it takes. Biggest prizes on the Jackson Hole carny conference circuit..
The A-Hole at J-Hole.
Good one!
"Hey you, with the face, step right this way..." -- Cyclone Pinball Machine
It is irrelevant. In fact, it so irrelevant that I am boycotting the whole fucking deal. I am going to get up and go to the beach take a stroll get some fucking bad ass breakfast with every lipitor piece of meat available. Then, I am going to do a pool day with Margs, 420, and my girlfriend half ass naked. If I have time, I am going to install the SSAR on my M4.
Check back in on Monday night. Have a great weekend.
FYB!
What if the Bernank gave a speech and nobody came?
Non-news from a nonentity common counterfeiter ...
Since it will be the same speech as last time..It has now been cancelled. Reruns of last episode is on channel 16.
YOU GOT IT MACHINEH...
My hypothesis is that the OB ADMIN has spent so much time/influence hiding true economic statistics to keep voter sentiment high, that the chairsatan can't act. Satan knows that if the true stats were being publicized that he's have the green light....but then, POTUS would lose his job. So to keep POTUS on his thrown, the spin is on like never before...and Satan is sterilized.
All Hail Uncle Shalom the Bearded Clam...
ZIRP FOREVER! We're doing it!
THERE WILL BE NO "PEACE" AS LONG AS THESE FUKWITS ARE RUNNING THE SHOW.
Any intervention sufficient to forstall asset deflation stokes commodity inflation. Game over QED.
The A-hole from J-Hole. Is Liesman blowing him tonite
And they are deep in the K-hole of dissassociative Keynesianism
Yea, Liesman cleans up after WSJ Jon Hackinonit
"Is Liesman blowing him tonite"
Liesman once had a full head of hair, but he got tired of constantly walking around with Bernanke spooge all over it so he shaved it off and left Ben a clean landing strip.
It did look like Liesman had his kneepads on.
Probably yer most coherent post ever!
So if BB doesn't print, is that just a future indicator of QE3, meaning the market will remain 'priced in'?
he wants to keep a relatively low profile during an election year '
What a joke
"He has to convey that the Fed has been disappointed in the economy’s performance, and since the Federal Reserve has no idea why the economy is broken or what to do, the Federal Reserve should be abolished."
Man, you high on somethin'! :>D
Zzzzzzzzzz
" He has to convey that the Fed has been disappointed in the economy’s performance" but the MOTHERFUCKING S$P is at ALL TIME MOTHERFUCKING HIGHS! So it follows you are NOT SATISFIED WITH THE PONZI, BUT YOU MS, GS, JPM DOUCHEBAGS do REALIZE that even in a PONZI or especially precisely because it is a fraudulent counterfeiting system, there is a definite definitive PONZI ENDGAME! And more so, you FUCKING CAN'T HAVE AN ECONOMY EXCLUSIVELY PREDICATED ON QE!!! SORRY YOU CAN'T!!! IT IS UNNATURAL UNGODLY AND PERVERTS EVERYTHING ON THiS STINKING EARTH!
Someone please print this and shove it up Bernanks J-Hole!
Wrap it nicely in Fed script and he'll put it in his man-Jyna-Hole himself, he loves the stuff so much.
lol
Stfu, congress has more front running to do
What a great picuture. looks like a guilty motherf**ker right there.
Agreed... guilty of pissing on the Constitution. After the MASS ARRESTS occur, the trials will be speedy and public... http://tinyurl.com/cd5cyjo/
Federal Reserve Notes.
Print my bitch, its all you have.
fuck the FED and what they do or dont do or say. Invest in 90% silver coinage and ignore the bullshit. Regardless of what they do you will preserve your families wealth. Get back to the old school of savers. Quit trying to make a quick easy buck investing. This market is booby-trapped.
foagettaboutit!
BTFD !
Opportunity coming tomorrow for PMs
Stack em high!
They forgot the devil horns and goatee on the Bernank picture.
P.S.- Fuck off Margin Stanley
One word: Disappointment.
Dissapointments are actually positve for wall st. Everything is really, that's why they're on so many meds like Cramer.
venerable bernank? venal bernank yes, venerable, not so much.
Please Ben: Make a neutral comment about the weather and SIT DOWN!
ben you commie bastard!
Zerohedge? More like Zerohope.
This website is best taken in small sips lest you decide to toss yourself off the balcony.
Oh, stop being so melodramatic.
We mainly come here for the ads with t-shirt babes
Wait, you mean to tell me those are chicks wearing the Snorg shirts?! I coulda swore "meh" was a dude...
OK, i'll be positive for ya.
Bernanke is amazing!!
He's printed enough money to give everyone on the planet a 40'' plasma screen...
and gold is still only at $1600.
Think on it.
This is no time for "the power of positive thinking".
If you can't laugh, you'd have to cry! So laugh, already! :>D
I say he will renew the Gold Confiscation Order of 1933. Surprise! /sarc
Ben will have a fatal heart attack half way through his speech.
what did you call me?
"What to expect from the Bernak @ J-Hole?"
......a Hand job?
What type of fart do you expect from Bernanke? I'm long SBD.
An " articulate rendition" of " I told you so"...
and right on cue
they predict the FED will SAY it doesn't want to be the center of attention? how weak is that bullshit?
the benzelbub does not suffer from premature fibrillation of credt
we know him well, but not for his feints of bashfulness
this is his day; he's gonna breathe on everyone and the markets will all close at VWAP
and that will be the end of that!
He could always say: "We've decided to raise interest rates in order to get Congress and the Senate to get off their dead @sses and do what they were elected to do, namely, make some hard decisions and cut some Govt spending." Wouldn't that give everyone that "Deer in the headlights" look? (Sorry Mescaline flashback...)
i catch every (pip) Slewie. I submit to "GOD
Slewie, you aren't like me. Some day I'll Marry.
sorry 'bout the outburst the other day folks. can't stand all the bailout nation stuff while the soldiers are still on the battlefield dying. to say "that is money they need"...with a full accounting of course...is i think the understatement of all time for we poor 'mericans. Needless to say the 'merican's ain't doing so well by this war either. There is much to be said the war is being used a pretext to steal on the grandest of scales right now...i have said i love this President of ours...and while this is not to say i'm a supporter i truly believe once either of these both emminently qualified men assumes office next year "truly profound change is coming." i know it sounds hokey but my personal view is that democratic governments are going to be toppled in Europe...possibly quite soon given the rapidity of the collapse going on...and i think China is on the verge of a "collapse of the center" as well. given what we already know about the "so called Arab Spring" (in actuality an Arab revolt) my personal view is that the Fed Chairman will simply stay the course "and let the local yokels sleep in the bed that they've made." It might be too alarmist to predict tanks in the streets of the USA..but we have never experienced the possibility of State and Municipal bankruptcies on the scale it sure seems to me we're looking at. I see the Chairman "at the ready to assist Federal authorities in case of emergency." Nothing more...nothing less either. "Bailout nation" is running its inevitable course: money for New York City...and unless you have a large industrial base (South Carolina), lots of oil (Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, North Dakota, Alaska) or are front and center in tech (North Carolina, West Coast)...i really don't see how you can get out of the way of this thing.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3RNsZvdYZQ
Money is disappearing into banks, money is disappearing into military too just as fast. Only problem is, banksterz aren't losing fingers and toes, or dying. I hope military personel wake up.
Ben don't offer scoops Tyler.
You're looking for a tailor made suit in an off the rack kind of world.
Should have just read Hilsenrath's twitter account instead of being nickel and dimed by MS to be Bernanke's hype man. Where is Flava Flav when you need hiM?
Blah blah blah.... slow growth. . Blah blah blah..... Inflation transitory..... Blah blah .... The fed has tools remaining .. Blah.... The fed stands ready...... Blah
Doc this is where you and me totally differ. I have the same message but I see him bailing on the blah blah this time and going with rabble rabble.
Or maybe Yadda, Yadda?
Is there a place called the V-hole? Never mind. Just a rhetorical question to lighten up your day! Carry on as usual!
yea. becky quick's snatch
" He has to convey that the Fed has been disappointed in the economy’s performance," what he wont convey is that lack of performance (not the one where fleecman has hot jizz on ben's head) is directly due the entity making wonder wonder land that they are trying to fix it. Ben be dissapointed at Ben! The more you print the more you fuck the middle class the worse it will be. Print = 120 crude = bye bye obamma!!
It seems Bennie etal is in a real box with politics the way they are heading. Whatever your persuasion and despite what they can really accomplish (maybe nothing), Christie and Ryan have nailed the fiscal thing pretty hard the last two nights. If the Rominator comes out swinging and says the same 20% of GDP is the federal government spending limit and we are going to fix this thing (entitlements, etc), then Bennie has to decide what team he is on.
The Rominator is already saying Bennie is history if he gets elected, so my guess is Bennie hits it right down the middle and makes few if any real commitments pending the polls after the Demo convention. The most important objective for the central banker is to remain the central banker and find a way to subvert those who have the political power. Bennie is on notice, and the new guys on the block have the power ... at least for now.
sschu
Made a mistake here. No comment.
Benny Bernanke will eventually do what Keynesian zombies do when their in trouble, print. All the excess cash has to go somewhere so it goes into stocks and commodities.
Watch food prices resulting from the drought go higher along with Bernanke's printing.
Food price increase projections I've seen seem to run around 3 - 4%. Seems low to me, all things considered. Anybody with insight on the matter care to share?
sorry, too busy watching your avatar smack it's ass.
This may help. The food price scenario, looking forward does not look good.
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTPOVERTY/Resources/336991-131196652...
aaahhhh... with chart porn and footnotes (slow clap)
thank you, good sir
Vincent Reinhart of Morgan Stanley is going to win the prize for writing the most inane garbage in 2012
cannot believe any adult thinks this crap is passable by either private bankers or a stinking monopoly private cartel (ie. the Fed) for public consumption it's so obviously total drivel
Mr Reinhart, your audience was not born yesterday, you really must try alot fucking harder to pull the wool over their eyes that Bernanke is anything but a dullard one trick pony with only one thing to do all year, print or not to print. Is Morgan Stanley an international bank, seriously?!!
A-holes @ J-hole!
What he will do? make his Ahole wide open.
If he really wants to impress. He'll show up with a stone tablet.
This is pitiful.
A thousand people freezing their butts off, waiting to worship a rat.
This phenomena may catch on in the DC [District of Criminal] districts.
Block puts up 'rat crossing' signs
So Benny pumps up the economy, it starts growing, and rates will have to rise. But then, the deficits are also rising and more revenue has to go to pay interest on that debt. More money to pay interest and entitlements means even more debt. No matter what the FED does, Benny is painted into a corner. And virtually so is the rest of the country. Not to be outrageous, but with never ending money printing gold should hit $15-20k in the next 10 years. This is one party that might eclispe the tech-stock run of the 1990's.
O/T
Philly Fed pres, Plosser, schools Liesman.
Monetary policy does not create wealth.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48843981
He is disgusting.
Wost still is the IMF saying to the ECB, you can print, we say it's ok.
Non voted, rogue governing academic madmen (and women) dictating policy. Governments have to get those balls hardened and do something. Or the people will.
It will get really messy. Most if not all humans don't give a flying f*ck about the stock market (except us dirty traders). Stress them out with oil/food inflation = global riots
That Bum Ben will be yodeling from the Jackson Hole. And failing in doing that as his yodle has now become a whine.
Bernanke's Jackson Hole (JH) speech this Friday morning. Some folks may suggest it's a risky time to comment on Fall expectations for the equity market. I don't agree as the macro will continue to cloud more rationally-induced near term directions for the tape. With the US election little more than two months away, politics is now the clear leader of market direction.
One result is that Mario Draghi has become the 'new' Bernanke. The Fed won't take any substantive action ahead of the election unless a 'black swan' hits the US economy.
Last week's 'Economist' wrote that more than half of the folks who say they'll vote for Romney, don't support Romney's views, but are merely anti-Obama votes. If that statistic remains relevant, amongst other implications, the relevance of the Fed itself could be on the table's menu. 'Helicopter Ben' won't be fueling any QE3 before the election with this tempest in his teapot; and that means its up to Mr. Draghi to keep the monetary machine cranked up.
Draghi, the ECB boss who's pulled out of his scheduled address to JH this Saturday, would have had no new information for attendees anyway. If his pitch wasn't sufficiently articulated enough already, he sure cleared that up with his editorial today, Wednesday, in Die Zeit.
My gut tells me that Mr. Bernanke played a growing role in catalyzing the increasingly more assertive Mr. Draghi. Months ago, Bernanke told it straight to Washington; I'm done, its now up to you to fix the fiscal side.
I'd say Canada's Mark Carney, Govenor of the Bank of Canada has also shown Mr. Draghi how to step out of the traditional mold of central bankers and speak your mind. Despite the history of volatility in his views on the economy, Mr. Carney has become Canada's global statesman. He was the first to vocalize the appropriate medium term concerns emanating from various ailings with the current, broader financial statements of Canada.
So next week will be when the dried paint on the walls from the August markets will begin to unpeel. The festivities kick off on Sept 6th with the 'watched for' meeting at the ECB. Following this likely 'market moving' event, the next couple of weeks of the European agenda will be packed.
Specifically, there's a meeting of Euro finance ministers, meetings with other European leaders, a Dutch election, and of course, more Greek drama.
In fact on the Greek front, a great irony struck me the other when I read the August 2012 edition of the 'Economic Letter' from the Federal Reserve of Dallas (www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/research/eclett/2012/el1208.pdf). The authors, Koech and Wang, tabled some analysis supporting the view that released Chinese economic data may be more optimistic than the actual state of the Chinese economy. But look at the Greeks; their economy is far worse than what's widely reported. It's little wonder the countries of Northern European are balking at coughing up more bucks amidst the contractions required by countries including Finland.
Given this scenario, the ultimate key to the direction of equities in the near term is whether the Germans will agree to mutualize peripheral sovereign debt. If Merkel's apparent 180 degree turn on this topic becomes reality, the next question is whether the requisite money printing to buy bonds is sterilized, i.e. neutral to the size of the ECB's balance sheet, or additive to their balance sheet, which is already larger than the Fed's.
This mutualization of debt would likely catalyze a strong near term move up in equities. Backtracking from the renewed optimism of significant ECB buying of sovereign bonds could result in the 8-10% correction in equities that many technicians are now predicting.
However, the implied volatility of such a down draft in equities may seem dwarfed by the future noise in currency markets. With short positions in the EUR vs USD currency pair cut by well more than half in the past couple of months, ECB balance sheet expansion combined with any view that the Republicans would control the White House and Congress could cause fresh lows in the EUR.
However, this dollar rally could be short-lived since either of a full GOP sweep and the subsequent ballooning in the F2013 fiscal deficit or a victory by Obama, and hence a gridlocked Washington, could serve to catalyze the (what I see is) inevitable QE3 next year.
Bottom line is that post the theatrics of Europe in September, the next imponderable is the U.S. election. It's a coin toss at this point, be it for the White House or control of the Congress. While each of the possible outcomes will generate different Q4 results for equities, the variance pales in comparison to what they'll mean for the composition of U.S. economy in the mid-term.
So the 'noise level' originating with politics during the next few months will likely reach a crescendo, potentially resulting in substantive moves up or down in the markets. But by next year, fundamentals will reassert themselves as key market drivers, and they won't have changed very much. The global recovery will remain weak and balance sheet leverage means monetary velocity (money supply divided by GDP) will ensure economic growth remains tepid. Hence, beyond the noise, broader equity markets will stay range-bound. Companies changing at the margin for the better and ones with the ability to grow their dividends will outperform.
Ain't gonna be no dividends. 2013 will be the Great Year of Layoffs as companies retreat ever deeper into survival mode. But hold the thought if it comforts you.
Float shrink output options.. Wink wink nudge nudge. Then the bleeding will begin, sales forecast will report a upside down hockey stick.
See how easy it is to spot desperation?? Simply humor.
I swear his picture on the main page just winked at me ~cringe~
Well, you provoked him with your little picture...
I think most of us will not be disappointed. We do not expect any QE, just babling by Bernank with maybe a little spittle in his beard. But there will be nothing of substance tomorrow and I think most of the market already knows that and is pricing it in already.
A total non event. We expect nothing.
he looks nervous.
Anyone else notice that Time gave him devil horns?
ALL you people are misguided, its RON PAUL who you should give your brainpower to. He's our only hope. EUROPE has lied more than my ex-wife, when do you hang up the phone the minute it rings? Are we suckerz or are we men? THINK! (ouch).
i hope the J-tone rings at the J-hole and the bernank shits him self mid "easing".
Maybe the yellowstone caldera can open up and swallow the A-Hole while he is in J-Hole!
I expect the number of words spent analyzing, bloviating, opionating, explaining and parsing Uncle Ben's speech will exceed the number of words spoken by the Chairsatan by a factor of 10 to the fourth.
I'm already sick and tired of the speech, and it is not due to happen for ~12 hours! I think this is a personal best record for me.
I suspect he'll promise little, the stock & commodity markets (in particular the PMs)will be disappointed and head down.
The banksters have 5-6x as much money on Romnoid (campaign contributions) that they have on O, who they supported last time. Looks like they rode that horse as long as they could and theyre ready to switch horses to move their NWO agenda forward. Can't have the economy improving all that much into Nov.
But then again, - - - -who knows what will happen ?
BEN MAKES US FALL ASLEEP
Reminds me of the 'good ole'' days when every communist dictator's words were a revelation for the populace. But wait, those were peasants with the culture still stuck in 18-19th century?! Who are these?
Reminds me of the 'good ole'' days when every communist dictator's words were a revelation for the populace. But wait, those were peasants with the culture still stuck in 18-19th century?! Who are these?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443618604577621561683343518.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection
There you go your buddies at JP are at it again. Doing what they do best. may be they are seeing the black swan? just like 2008. shampoo rinse repeat.
Is the a-hole from j-hole still doing meet and greets with returning vets like he used to?
Shouldn't this article's title read:
"Bernanke: The world's biggest counterfeiting A-Hole speaks from J-hole".
Allow myself to introduce.....myself. my name is QE2012
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=67E42LQsU24
I'm not going to read a thing but instead look at the indexes and tell you what he said.
I don't think I like a stooge having control of the markets. Then again Bush was president for 8 fucking years. Something is wrong. How did life become so senseless I'd even go as far as saying idiotic. Must be the illuminati. Has to be. Because last I checked life is more mysterious than immaginable. An unimaginable mystery wrapped in wrapping paper covered with the faces of buffons.
Someone call the police.
"Um...er...(quaver)...FED...remains ready...liquidity....employment...stimulus...low rates...extended period..."
Markets: "Peanuts! Popcorn! Cotton Candy! Get 'em here!"
Why the hell did the euro rise when Draghi said he isn't going to Jackson hole. Because he is working on an assasination attempt for Jens Weidman? Ridiculous idiotic markets.
Bankers vs. Humans - iPhone, iPad, FREE
http://itunes.apple.com/gb/app/bankers-vs.-humans/id514372526?mt=8
holishitoli, BiCheZ!
our first bankster-commomorativeAvatar!
un-plugged?
i'm hearing from my hooves on the ground, now...
ever since last year, after they took DSK down, my fave jackHo-down is the BBQ where christineL gets fuked by a horse
a small horse? a dog?
well, that is the latest! it's gonna be a dog! it was a small horse last year; of course
and we're having a fundraiser for tyler about what kinda dog it will BE!
and how many puppies? are you shitting me?
WTF is tyler gonna do with all the money?
tomorrow, just before the benzelbub clears his throat and the gold price drops $37.50 in one nan0pube...
...that's the BBQ time (before the speech; the dog is before the speech) and every cowboy from 3 counties is gonna be there drinking with all the zeroHeads and the FEDheads and christine in those darling silver spurs that coco made for her
And so, The 4'th Horseman,( pale rider), set forth ( Famine/ despair)
Blahhhhh/ Blahhhh " Mother Nature" decidesx
On standby to buy the potential gold slam down.
The Bernank and "Solomonic" in the same sentence: Pass that spliff if you please!
And may the odds be ever in your favor.
SSSHHHHHH, QUIET! Everybody! It's time for the A-hole BUFU to make his speech! (Watches Dow)
Got Popcorn?