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What Happened Into The Last FOMC Meeting?

Tyler Durden's picture


The hopes and prayers of a legion of long-only managers, stock-brokers, retiring boomers, and TV personalities rest heavily on the shoulders of one Ben Bernanke and just as into the last FOMC meeting in April, equity markets are surging on self-delusion (amid fading volumes and plunging average trade size) - while Treasury markets remain far less sanguine. Will it be different this time?

Average trade size is not confirming the start of a sustained uptrend here - in fact quite the opposite...

Charts: Bloomberg


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Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:33 | 2539355 Squishi
Squishi's picture

controlled free markets 

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:42 | 2539386 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Controlled Free-Fall Markets.

As Max Keiser puts it, "This is a controlled demolition conducted by financial terrorists." 

There you go.  Carry on.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:57 | 2539435 Short Memories
Short Memories's picture

One more market sugar rush please so I can sell the rest of my equities and be done with them!

Thanks Ben!

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:40 | 2539639 financial apoca...
financial apocalyptic contagion's picture

if every trader out there is thinking like you and the muppets are too scared to enter the game anymore, you might be in for a nasty little surprise even after bernanke comes flying in on his helicopter

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 12:01 | 2539725 strannick
strannick's picture

Bizarrely,gold down with the dollar as the euro rises before the FOMC fact. At the same time, the FDIC just made gold grade A collateral. Lookin qe hopeful to me.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:00 | 2539442 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, we continue to "beat expectations" all the way down.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 12:38 | 2539861 HarryM
HarryM's picture

with VIX @ 17.8  ? - there better be QE or there will be QE after the ensuing meltdown - LOL

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:03 | 2539453 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

PMs are not buying the QE story today.  Enuff said.  

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:35 | 2539362 SHEEPFUKKER

Exactly how Benny Boy wants it......He will ride in to save the day......or not. 

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:36 | 2539365 BlandJoe24
BlandJoe24's picture

no qe was announced in April...

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:51 | 2539410 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

No need for QE since Operation Titty Twist in full effect from September and the discount window was open. 

Credit is hot, pick 'em up!

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:36 | 2539367 ghostzapper
ghostzapper's picture

Hey, when cheerleaders get hooked on Mr. Brownstone it can take an awful long time to condition them to stop texting the dealer every time they pick up their iPhone. 

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:36 | 2539368 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

this 3 year rally with shitty common-man economy and basic disbelief by most is getting fucking boring

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:41 | 2539385 BlandJoe24
BlandJoe24's picture

seems more machine cold cruel than just boring

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:58 | 2539440 gjp
gjp's picture

Cruel beyond belief.

These last three days of lock-step melt-up in the nonsense momentum stocks have been excruciating.  Who cares about QE?  Whatever is publibly announced, the market has obviously had a non-stop drip feed (or fire hose) from the Fed since 2008.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:37 | 2539369 Ecoman11
Ecoman11's picture

Meanwhile... German Court rules lawmakers must be involved in euro decisions,,16035506,00.html

"The judges found that the center-right coalition government led by Chancellor Angela Merkel had breached the rights of the German parliament by failing to sufficiently inform lawmakers during negotiations towards the creation of the permanent euro rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM)."

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:39 | 2539375 bigwavedave
bigwavedave's picture

thats a nice chart tyler. kudos

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:39 | 2539376 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I think that they should just announce QE at every monthly meeting from here on out. The key to keeping the dollar strong would be if they took a citizen of each country that owns treasuries and electrocutes them during the whole meeting. It may seem a bit extreme at first but eventually you just get used to it and it gets the message across.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:39 | 2539378 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

It will be different this time because quarter end is just 10 ramp days away and the brokers need to make their fees.  This market should go up by a record amount over the next two weeks on pure bank bailout propaganda.  They need their 1% and Bernanke will maximize it.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:08 | 2539475 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

If you don't think I am right please refer to last year June 20 thru July 1st.  A 6% run straight up and that was without QE infinity.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 23:22 | 2541860 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Now that retail is a dim memory the hedgies are the mortal enemies of the HFT robots, squirreling up the plan by adding a bit of volume to the vapor.  I don't expect the well being of the hedge funds is high on the to-do list of the ones who run the game.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:40 | 2539380 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Hard to see the market going down when we are 175 points away from 13,000 and the 10-yr. yield is a paltry 1.6% and gasoline prices are at 9 month lows.

We certainly don't need any QE program.

The Fed just needs to buy stocks now and then to keep the momentum going upward.

With GS and MS now just starting to come off the lows, it will be easy for the Fed to reverse the momentum by powerjacking a few key stocks and forcing the shorts to start scrambling for cover.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:44 | 2539397 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Perpetual motion!

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:44 | 2539398 somethingisrotten
somethingisrotten's picture


Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:46 | 2539406 Saro
Saro's picture

People who participate in this market are the ones giving them everything they need to continue extracting wealth via their market-rigging.

Knowing that the market is rigged is all well and good, but if you keep your money in it, you give sanction to it, and you become the enemy.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:51 | 2539407 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

what does 13,000 have to do with anything

robo---do you really trade or are you someone's keen sense of sarcastic humor?

or did the website owners invent you to create contreversy?

or are you just a dickwad trying to stir up shit and get attention?

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:26 | 2539587 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"or did the website owners invent you to create contreversy?"  -  derek

This is my guess.  Robo has had privileges on ZH that other posters did not have.  Robo was able to post charts etc. on this site.  My guess is Robo is a ZH plant to stir the pot and create buzz.  If ZH had an ignore button feature, methinks Robo would essentially disappear.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 12:10 | 2539777 oddjob
oddjob's picture

He has netflix egg on his face for life.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 17:03 | 2545078 fuu
fuu's picture

He was a contributor early on.

Wed, 06/20/2012 - 05:21 | 2542338 madbomber
madbomber's picture

what = robo ?

of = ?+ or or = if


a= really trade

b= pawn

c= dick

d= oni

e= closet homosexual

and if = 13,000? = ? +







Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:57 | 2539717 HarryM
HarryM's picture

Thank you for explaining how our Free Markets now work

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:40 | 2539382 BlueStreet
BlueStreet's picture

AAPL is down.  Market rollover to begin in 5.....4.....3.....

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:40 | 2539383 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

it does indeed seem to be as suggested here. But gold and silver being pushed down again today. If the cartel knew that there would be no print tomo then PMs would be up today ready for the crush tomo. Perhaps we should be counter intuitive.

also maybe treasuries are being bought as everyone knows the FED is coming back? and once the FED is back everyone will sell them ?

i donno. we shall see soon i guess.

Im long phyzz and have a few hundred paper ounces.

see if i get paper punished

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:01 | 2539449 jezzarayman
jezzarayman's picture

very good point VonManstein, if this a QE Hope rally why isnt gold up at all? even on a day with the USD down .59% stocks, oil up. It is being capped at 1630, its fair to say with NO QE tomoz gold will probably fall $30-60, why are we getting these sharp quick sell downs and mini raids in gold if they know its gonna get hammered tomoz. makes you think? Trading these markets....good luck.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:16 | 2539505 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

to be honest we may be over analyzing things here, after all PM gets attacked most days. But last time bernanke spoke they ran up to get smashed on the day.

there may be some coordinated action going on here.. one player pushing down the paper price so another team member can get physical cheaper before the print.

but again. this happens most days so probably turn out that we have no printing tomo and PM go down more than usual.

but really, ahappening look at the EUR today. as usual someone knows something

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:19 | 2539548 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

APPL could be seen as a safe haven play recently.. its not doing anything today. Gold neither. silver semi beatdown.. treasuries down down.. stocks and EUR fully retarded. mixed messages all over. price stabiliteee

good for the brain all this..

tomorrow is D day

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:21 | 2539559 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

and im going short SPX with tight stop prior to Ben speak tomo regardless. cant be much more upsiide after all this insanity

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:22 | 2539562 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

maybe i'll stop replying to myself now

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:44 | 2539660 jezzarayman
jezzarayman's picture

I'm on the short SPX trade too but have just sworn to myself that after this downleg (hopefully!) I will never be shorting the US Markets again. I am also getting a tattoo on my face saying "take profit". 

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:43 | 2539384 Stuart
Stuart's picture

you betcha baby!   The FOMC is only outdone by the G20 or the G8 as a Johnny comes late to the party...   GS can go suck it with its talk about flow purchasing.  Ya, right!

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:41 | 2539388 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

What happened after operation twist and the other QE programs? Might be more relevant

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:43 | 2539390 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

I'm sure Ber-shankie already knows the SC's call on HC.  If need for QE.  If not, plenty of QE hints.  Or...would he take a big 1-2 punch?  QE + HC and drive the SP to 1500.  Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.  

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 12:07 | 2539765 HarryM
HarryM's picture

But would it last to Election Day?

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:49 | 2539409 TonyCoitus
TonyCoitus's picture

On the day that Ben was born, the angels got together

And decided to create a dream come true

So they sprinkled moon dust in his hair

Of golden starlight in your eyes of blue.....


The Fed rules bitchez......until it doesn't!

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:54 | 2539424 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture


Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:54 | 2539426 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Anyone -- is the Fed statement released today or tomorrow?

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:57 | 2539438 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Tomorrow, I believe at 12:30 but I could be wrong, it may be like 1 or something.  I think there is a whole thing with it comes out 15 minutes after the time because its still sent by fax instead of electronically.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 12:08 | 2539769 HarryM
HarryM's picture

don't forget afternoon rumor

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:56 | 2539431 sudzee
sudzee's picture

Is it just me or have the news wires been deathly quiet since last Friday. CNBC wires have been frozen during market hours for at least 3 days. Bloomberg seems not up to snuff as well.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 10:59 | 2539441 Stuart
Stuart's picture

one of best things that could happen for the markets is to simply take those two sesame street shill channels off the air, permanently.   

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:01 | 2539445 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

"Price makes the news, not the other way around. A market is going to go where a market is going to go" - Peter Borish

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:02 | 2539448 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Wouldn't be surprised to see see SPX 1380 before Ben opens his mouth.  

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:03 | 2539454 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

and then what?

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:04 | 2539460 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Sell the news, except for a 600b LTMO.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:04 | 2539458 Living_Stone
Living_Stone's picture

TD Ameritrade gave me a courtesy call last night to let me know they were doubling my margin requirements (to 60%) on DXD, QID, SDS.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:46 | 2539670 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

How courteous of them.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:56 | 2539713 bdc63
bdc63's picture

well isn't that interesting ... gotta get the "dumb money" out of their short positions I guess

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:08 | 2539471 InsurgoCasca
InsurgoCasca's picture

Bearish. *Bernanke puts a gun to my head* Uh, uh, BULLISH!

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:08 | 2539473 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

If there is no QE, then gold will tank and retail stocks will explode higher.


That has been the pattern lately.

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:11 | 2539491 somethingisrotten
somethingisrotten's picture


Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:57 | 2539720 bdc63
bdc63's picture

Stocks explode higher with no QE?! ... good luck with that trade ...

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:11 | 2539495 kahunabear
kahunabear's picture

Headline - Charles Evans Heads Fed and the Dow goes to 20000

Other news - Michael Bloomberg implements new tax laws to fund Soylent Green and Victory Gin factories to bring jobs back to America!

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:15 | 2539515 cognus
cognus's picture

Not all Goldmans are Golden.  This one says 'risk on Ben'


Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:20 | 2539554 hangemhigh77
hangemhigh77's picture

Bilderberg has made their Puppidential selection in Mutt Rombot and they will now tank the market to destroy Oboner.  No QE

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 20:34 | 2541405 cdude
cdude's picture

Interesting theory, but can you back that blurt with ANYTHING? Or is it too soon to expect another bowel movement?

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:22 | 2539564 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

"almost risk0n"?

this is looking risk0n to slewie, now:  the R2K has caught a nice bid and it's been a while!  10 & 30 are down nicely (but still way up there);  and commodities have ignition and are lifting off...?

since i don't see the FED abandoning ZIRP and the EU is gonna take a while, are we just getting painted again?

b/c the V-man and antonioSam may form a goober?  b/c euro bonds may get approved?

this isn't even a goldilocksCrisisTM yet imo

these are relief rallies, i think:   altho bottoms may be in, i think we'll have fun testing them before long...  this (test) would indicate that markets are still screwed down tight

i still think that is where we are enonomically:  the markets are screwed down tight and the checks are in the mail

i have argued that the FED (and other cBs acting in concert) does not wish to liquify a higher equity level right now b/c that would increase systemic risk, given the truly shitty-ass-rabbit-fuk forward looky-loo

in other words:  as long as the political and bankstering bias is against RISK for systemic stabilitee purposes, things are gonna stay screwed down tight

i think that the chairsatan has been given the power to make this stick;  plus, fungibility is an amazing beast

so the wheels are not gonna come off;  the checks are in the mail, everything sucks rocks;  the coffee & weed is great and slewie is heading out to recon the casino action

b/c of some earlier comments, i'm gonna play every wizard of 0Z game they have, even tho most of em are suckerooskies which make one pay a huge % increase in input to be "bonus eligible"

i should have $25-30 of house moolah when sit down w/ dorothy, so wish me luck against the witches, BiCheZ! 

tapioca is not my favorite supper...  but fortunes have been made fading slewie while he prepares his pie-hole puddings...

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:43 | 2539654 dingoj
dingoj's picture

Well, you can't blame a man for wanting to make a living...

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 19:33 | 2541213 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i came home $10 richer + 2 tea bags

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:35 | 2539620 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

I hate to say it....but buy any dip today.  They're gonna run this thing to 1375 before Bershankie opens his mouth.  After that, to quote the Boss:

"Take right at the light, go straignt until night, and then boys....yer on your own"


Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:53 | 2539680 ATG
ATG's picture

Dimon testimony, Peak War Games in Syria and FOMC meeting conjoin a harmonic peak convergence between the first day of summer, new moon, jupiter and venus, marking a quite possible market top:

Trailing Stop Losses to close longs and enter shorts may prove profitable.

For specific ideas:

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 11:56 | 2539714 InsurgoCasca
InsurgoCasca's picture

You must be a communist. Take him to the woodshed!

Tue, 06/19/2012 - 12:03 | 2539691 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Be careful when ol uncle buck gets up and starts walking around. He finishes off the last of the punch bowl.  Gold is clearly the premier asset but it is saying something here.. no?  As no more QE..yes?  HUI at mlti yr lows.

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