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What Wednesday 8am Fed Headline Is Being Leaked Now?
Forgive our skepticism, but since our earlier market snapshot, most of the broad risk drivers have notably receded from their evening highs - while ES remains at highs. Together with the worst Composite China PMI print in 32 months, we are seeing CONTEXT diverge notably weaker than the 'resilient' ES futures. TSYs did open modestly offered but it is the retracement in FX carry, Silver, Gold, Copper, (and even Oil) that is dragging risk 'off' as the e-mini S&P futures contract holds magically at Friday's closing VWAP. We wonder what comfortable bid is being maintained by them-that-know-better-than-us-what-comes-next? We can only assume that the old adage that the 'worse it gets the better it will be' so BTFD is back in full force but we remind those knife-catchers (alone in the equity market for now this evening) that optical backstops are showing cracks and balance sheets are deleveraging no matter what is done to prop-up sovereigns until Santa arrives.
Late Friday we saw risk come off notably and ES slowly realize and leak lower to converge (red solid oval). As all the factors opened this evening, we saw CONTEXT and ES converge once again (red dotted oval) then since the broad basket of risk assets has dropped back to unchanged from Friday's close (red arrow) while ES has held up (as seen below - at Friday's closing VWAP level (the light blue arrow) - an often important balance point for institutional traders).
Copper is 1.3% off its earlier highs, Silver 1% down from its opening level, Gold 0.5% down (back to unch) and even Oil (entirely ignoring the drama in the Middle East for now) is leaking back to only 0.4% up from Friday's close.
30Y TSYs are underperforming for now as EUR leaks back and EURJPY is only 10pips up from Friday's close. Swissy is the worst performer of the majors against the USD (and only one negative) while CAD is the strongest.
Charts: Bloomberg
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hmm....
A metaphor of the US Government:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEdXRsC3UYg
Did The One and Place Holder quit?
The one has left for a 17 day Hawaii vacation, so everything must be kosher, or hunky dorey.
Or about to fall apart, so he needs to be far away, on an island.
Will money as we know it last past Christmas? Curious times...
ORI
/the-plan/
friends and family day at Macys........
FUCK TEH FED -- BERNANK MEASURES WILL ALL BACKFIRE!
Pass the hopium pipe!
'Bad news' is good news again!
So I expect A LOT of 'good news'. Happy 'investing'...
Never look a gift horse in the mouth.
End yr volatility. US/EZ markets better keep an eye on China.
The shit is falling apart. December 19,2011. What the fuck else is there to say?
I like the Detroit Lions to come back and cover the spread tonight.
I like the futures and equity markets to be whatever the hell the Fed wants them to be.
"the futures and equity markets to be whatever the hell the Fed wants them to be."
A few years ago a statement like that would have required a tin foil hat. Now it is just a sad undeniable fact.
Sad but true and almost need to assume someone knows something - because someone probably does
Raising rates? (of course not)
Everyone is going to look back at this pre-holiday period as an absolute fire sale for the PMs. The fundamentals are screaming; everyone is printing or going to print; war clouds are forming; both silver and gold are in a shorter supply than most people realize; the Chinese will go ballistic on PMs once PAGE is fully operational.
please... sleep easy tylers.
the authorities are in charge and handling the situation.
The Bernanke put and the Geithner call : what could go wrong?
The Bernanke has a big bazooka.
Bad news is the Euroes will send Timmy back empty handed, again.
Putin is a Spy.
Obama..."Ben, I don't care how much it takes or much you print, turn on the Hewlett Packard Turbo printers until the election! And for the 100th time, I don't give a shit about the unintended consequences in a few years time, because I will not be in charge by then"
Ben..."whatever you say Barry, I have to go, Timmay G is on line 2, he mentioned something about some French bank that needs a bailout"
Obama.."give the French what they want Ben, we cant have those French banks rock my election campaign", I am off to play hoops with Jay Z and 50 Cent, then I have a golf game planned with Beyonce, so don't call me again unless you have an emergency
Ben..(under his breath).. "what a douchebag"
Cannot believe anyone who has been here for more than 4 days tries to trade this broken, obscene market.
been killing it, just have to be one with the corruption
Careful with that MON & ZEE, snappers..
Trade what they want you to trade.
Eventually The Bernank will start entering the Fed Hearings like a Wrestler, complete with dark sounding theme music and an entourage like those of heel groups of yore.
It's just the usual Monday illegal ramping - its ben (been) going on for years. Monday ramp is normal, illegal - but normal.
Wake the f*ck up Wall Street.
-- Yuan hits low end of trading band against dollar for fourth consecutive session
-- Yuan falls amid growing worries over China's slowing economy, weakening exports
-- There are also signs of continued capital outflows, traders say
"
What Wednesday 8am Fed Headline Is Being Leaked Now?"10% off your purchase when you open a new swap line?
But 50% is not a credit event
Hedge GBP/USD against EUR/USD with a 50 pip stop on each swing. You'll typically profit. TP of 100 or so seems to be pretty productive.
It is getting to the point where the stock market is so rigged that soon the
only players in the market will be the crooks. When that occurs, it will no longer be a market.
How corrupt can a government get before it has to revert to tyranny to keep its people in line?
IMHO, we are about to find out.
Sheesh, we are already there!
If (when) we all finally give up & the market goes 100% bot what would change? And more importantly would anyone actually admit it?
Aaaaaaand its gone.. thank you for using BotBank
Hey Zorba,
Can Greeks in Greece buy gold and silver coins? And if yes, what type?
Cheers
80 percent employed. Print to retain nominal price while exchange value prices move upward. Not rocket science. The great depression got worse every four years because of politics, not because of the economy. The depression was a political event manifest in the economy.
Bottom line is what ever happens make money even if all your pre-progammed paradigms say down cannot be up.
Don't stay in equities more than a day or two at most. Buy and hold is dead until our torn social contract is remade anew and a new generation of power brokers emerges.
Zerohedge +1 awesome work Tyler
Remember this is not an investment trading website. It's our portal into reality.
ES volume is extremely low, so it does not take a lot of capital for a few desperate PMs (or Waddell & Reed's algo) to keep ES levitated at artificially inflated levels.
I doubt Bernanke’s/Geithner’s cronies are buying ES during the night (they need liquidity, but there is no liquidity right now).
SP500 bull vs bear battle reverts to bearish bias after price action on Friday and more downside expected.
My long term indicators have continued to warn of US Dollar strength and EURO weakness and these signals have increased since 2009. The overdue dollar rally should be substantial.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
Well December 9th is an important date for the EU/EZ.
The rumor I reported from a bond dealer aquaintance seems to be close to the other rumors I am hearing from ZH that there will be a combined IMF/ECB plan announced soon with rapid treaty changes agreed to by all parties by december 9th which includes supranational monitoring and management of national government spending like what is already the process in Ireland.
Maybe santa is coming after all.
Tell your bond dealer aquaintance to get a clue. There's no such thing as "rapid treaty changes". Treaty changes require referendums or revolutions. Take your pick.
The "bond dealer" is a fictional imaginary character living in his/her head.
Fuck the actual changes, ramp on rumors and plans BITCHEZ
All the different rumors do have a common theme of unitary action and IMF/ ECB joint action. Treaty changes are unnecessary if the governments voluntarily implement the agreement. That can be done rapidly.
Depending on how monday starts this ought to be another buy the rumor sell the news event.
Buy the way it has been rubbed in my face by a couple of people that the long bond has the best thirty year return of any asset class, 11.3 percent annualized. Goes to show that richard russell is right. All bull markets are so sneaky that no one ever rides them to the top.
I doubt it will be gold that has the best returns this next thirty years. It is too obvious.
Maybe in reality, but not in make believe land where a 50% haircut can just be defined away as something other than a default.
Constitutions are just so 20th century. We have a new law these days, and it runs on brute force.
It already happened when the ECB/FED did the swap. Forget it. This end yr bullsh*t is getting desperate. Major disappointment on the end yr rally. Rather markets will start to sell. The whole world is ignoring the real time meltdown of China. Once the momos start to get a whiff of reality. Europe will be forgotten and everyone will trade of the doom China news.
Still can't get over that nut from SoGen calling for ECB/FED printing or the 'Hitler' will return article.
Desperate.
To paraphrase Doonesbury: "Hitler in 2012 -- he's tanned, he's rested, he's ready!"
lol....
Algos are down for maintenance and are being reprogrammed as we speak...we pardon this interruption of our daily ponzi and fleecing of the sheepie...
I read this and the light bulb went off. The algos aren't working in this chaos because the chaos is not market driven its man made political driven. You can't account for on the ground changes in politics w/a math model that needs tinkering w/each change merkel or sarkozy makes. they'd have to run every pro-con statement out of every news outlet and blog to make the algo work. No way. can't be done as the blog can make the change and the algo won't pick it up real time before the search engines do. In that way, those who work the blog have already started the chain of events and the algo is behind the curve.
Here is an explanation for that move up.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2011/12/double-tap-backtest-of-b177-it-d...
Don't be ridiculous: There is no market
book'em Danno
They need to lever peoples savings x todays 40-100 bankers/leverage.
Very odd open tonight.
Thoughts http://www.optionmillionaires.com/2011/futures-up-dollar-up-and-curious-...
At the end of the day, the Eurolanders will have to "show Mr. Market the money". And it's a good bet that this isn't going to happen since Euroland is insolvent.
Regardless of the rumor mill, the Net Spec positions for Euros are building shorts on each rumor generated pop up. And this is due to no matter what happens, the Euro must weaken. (Ok, outside of the FED going rogue and coming into the market and buying EuroSoveriegn debt. I guess these days you can't rule that out.)
And once this avalanche starts rolling, the EURO fail narrative will start to materialize, by locking out all except the EURO zone entities from buying Euro debt. (Why by Euro debt at above market prices at the same time the currrency is devaluating?) And the EURO endgame will commence:)
and yet Friday was a HUGE gain on the Dow as the FedRes goosed the markets only to see them at neutral before the close/start of the weekend. Talk about trying to front running the front runners....they were 4 trading days early and nobody was buying that mallarky. Shocked! I'm shocked I tell you. (yawn) not.
the global casino.
makes me think of a song:
Everybody knows that the dice are loaded
Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed
Everybody knows that the war is over
Everybody knows the good guys lost
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich
That's how it goes
Everybody knows
Everybody knows that the boat is leaking
Everybody knows that the captain lied
Everybody got this broken feeling
Like their father or their dog just died
When stock future are way up but PMs are not, it usually means head fake for stock futures. Stocks only move up on money printing and they only do it half as fast as gold.
Fear not people, the contagion is contained
Bahahahahaaaaaa................. ROFLMAO
May the sideshow circus act,the new charade,the smoke and mirrors,the surreal live reality show begin.Please continue the regime above the law.Just deem what you will, leaders of the new world toilet bowl.Rejoice on fucking the planet and everybody on it.Enjoy the fact you have trumped evil and become its true manifestation.
I have the day off from the slave labor camp so I,can watch the carnage for a change.Fortunately I do not have to monitor the daily lies,bullshit and psychotic behavior daily as those in the business have to.
Thank you Zerohedge for weeding out the tonnage of shit for me and good day to you all.
Hey Tyler - what's up dude - missed the following PMI contraction info:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/12/05/uk-euro-zone-pmi-idUKLNE7B400U20111205