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What Worked In 2011... And What Didn't
Back in mid-May just after the market had topped for the year, in a post titled "The Great QE Unwind Compression Trade(s)" we told readers to "focus purely on Utilities and Consumer Staples as the long leg in a compression trade, while shorting Industrials and Consumer Discretionary, leaving Financials alone (John Paulson's projections of Bank of America hitting $30/share by the end of 2011 notwithstanding)." Granted Financials were by far the worst performing trade of the year although with the possibility of a Fed bailout around every corner, it was imprudent to be short the sector (rather going long various unique opportunities such as MBIA proved to be a 100% return in months if not weeks). Instead, we referred to precious metals, namely gold, as a natural hedge against any potential Fed (and global central planner) stupidity. So how did anyone who followed our 2011 advice do? Well - the above three suggestions represented three of the five best performing sectors in the year (with the shorts not offsetting any gains). As can be seen below. Which we merely bring up to those who, counterfactualy, desire to brand this site as some fringe lunatic goldbug asylum. Which we are not saying it isn't: we urge most people to stay out of stocks entirely: the possibility of another flash crash is always present. For those for whom capital preservation is of paramount importance, precious metals are the way to go. But we realize there are those for whom career risk means being involved in stocks, and we realize that they represent a substantial portion of our readership. Which is why we try to be of use to everyone who comes here.
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Even MillionDollarBonus_? Tyler, you're too nice.
Gold and silver is the common mans' only protection as the corruption train chugs along.
utilities did pretty well...totally defensive, risk-off year lol
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzi9Phxn8y8
The best investment of 2011?
Long term US Treasury bonds....TLO....up 30%
fear ruled.
in terms of large asset class, yeah. My personal accounts that I trade did very well, I hit some homeruns on some energy stocks, specifically Trilogy Energy I got into at 6.2. The MLP class did pretty well. It is the 401k mutual funds that blew chunks. And to think that all of us pay these people to do worse than we can do on our own. Would have rather had the whole pile in KMP, at least it pays a dependable yield.
Trilogy (TETZF) never traded at $6.20.
It started trading in April 2010 around $8.50 and only briefly dipped into the 7's. Not to mention the fact that it trades only 1K or 2k shares/day.
Max Fischer, Civis Mundi
Busted
New Avatar CPL?? Less conspicuous ;O)
What worked in 2011:
MONEY PRINTING.....................................................MONEY PRINTING........................MONEY PRINTING...................................CAN KICKING..........................MONEY PRINTING..................................................................................................................MONEY PRINTING............................................................................CAN KICKING..............................MONEY PRINTING....................................CAN KICKING.........................................................MONEY PRINTING....................................MONEY PRINTING...........................CAN KICKING
What didn't:
Everything else (but it looked like it did & the Ministry of Propaganda tells you it did)...
--- There, fixed it...
Eggs up 81% and milk 11.2% this last month or two. Here comes the bull rush.
What worked and what didn't? Who cares. Did anyone notice that we opened and closed the year at SPX 1257 ??? Hmm... what a coincidence.
Gold and silver is the common mans' only protection as the corruption train chugs along.....
In a thread entitled "What worked in 2011," it seems somewhat laughable to include silver. Or perhaps someone could explain how silver "protected" investors from manipulation and corruption this past year?
Silver has done basically nothing for most of modern history, with exception of a small bout of mania in the late 70's/early 80's. We happen to be in a similar period of lunacy, but it's quickly deflating like it did before. In my judgement, silver is a awful long-term investment - totally dead money with periods of extreme volatility and mania.
http://www.sharelynx.com/chartsfixed/SI.gif
In the following link, look at the very bottom chart. Doesn't look good:
http://silverprice.org/silver-price-history.html
I've never been able to understand why silver gets worshipped like it does.
Max Fischer, Civis Mundi
I agree, silver did awful in 2011. The takedown was enormous and the 5 margin rate hikes in 8 days really should have killed it. But it ended the year basically flat.
Amazingly resilient.
How did your hedge fund do?
....... oh, sorry.
nope-1004 laid out the facts:
+1
Silver - it takes a licking and keeps on ticking.
It's funny because it's true.
"I've never been able to understand why silver gets worshipped like it does."
Silver Shortage This Decade, Silver Will Be Worth More Than Gold -FutureMoneyTrends.com
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IiarVvZguY
If Silver Goes Down All Hell Will Break Loose In The Physical Market: Silver Investment Update
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCCuLMgyUgY
Might be time to getcha some.
Silver has been in a bear market for over 600 years. 40,000 tonnes of Argent mined from Mt. Potosi in Peru on the backs of slave laborers and brought to Spain helped to usher in the decline of Silver prices. The establishment of the Bank of England in 1694 has probably had a huge hand in the shorting of Silver prices. Not to mention the looting of Silver of both China and India which was then dumped on Europe's economies. That was during the Victorian era. The crux of the matter to me as a buyer of Silver is not the investment potential. That is a disingenuous discussion. The markets are rigged. I am part of a collective effort to force price discovery in the Silver market while guys like you pretend like none of this happened. While guys like you pretend that 41 bn ounces of Silver hasn't been unmined I have been buying. While the real Au/Ag ratio is most likely less than 10 guys like you have been pretending like it isn't. Guys like you have been pretending that the worldwide Gold inventory hasn't grown larger than the worldwide Silver inventory. It's guys like you that inspire me to buy even more Silver. I would find it very entertaining indeed if you didn't own Silver.
Excuse me. There was a bear market in Silver for over 600 years. The recent Bull market has only been running since 2001. This Bull Run might last 100 years or more.
oil stocks did well this year, apple did well this year, anyone who is anti-stock is too fucking dumb to pick winners, many stocks are natural inflation hedges, verizon has been a great stocks to own, there are many great companies to own.
i am a big fan of gold, but i get so fucking sick and tired of u tunnel vision assholes that think you are fucked unless you only own physical gold.
I posted a couple weeks ago to buy HTWR below 64, it's now at 73, easy money.
Yeah i'm drunk, so what.
yeah, there are a lot of issues out there, if you can pick good stocks, that did very well. I've only had a very few losing trades on these types of things lately, due to geopol risk on miners.
I'm pretty sure I'm the only retail equity mid-term trader left.
At least once a week the algos wake me up, so they have somebody to play with.
For those who like to brand this site a "...fringe lunatic goldbug asylum." How did you do last year? Ready to start paying attention yet, or would you prefer to just keep shoveling your money into your broker's pockets?
Only played long and short ETFs, got 50% return in 2011. But, ZH is still the best place to find truth.
One suggestion: please post possible bullish news as much as bearish news. I found that I only discover them on ZH two days later when ES already reflects it.
I'll stick to forex, where the manipulation is more transparent and therefore useful to all concerned, not just insiders.
I just do not understand why any of you listen to what Zero Hedge has to offer. Makes no sense. All you have to do is follow Robots advice along with a touch of Million dollar bonus and you are all set.
Easy money. :)
And then there is this bridge in Tuscon AZ. I am trying to sell...Hmmmm!
I've got a better bridge in London for sale.
Honest guv.
NJ is selling a bridge...
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2010/05/port_authority_asks_public_to.html
i would like in on owning some bridges lol
Bridge loans have damned near disappeared.
All you have to do is follow Robots advice
Yep, provided you have a working time machine :O)
Wonder what will be advocated by the ZH crew throughout '12.
My first guess is gold, silver (x1000), stamps.
My real guess is gold, US/EU IG, and MBIA.
With QE a matter of time, financials may ironically (for the career risk crowd that is) be an interesting bet for those constrained to equities.
As for everyone else, we agree with SocGen on their top QE anticipatory trades.
One thing we can guarantee with 100% certainty: debasement of paper currencies will continue.
"One thing we can guarantee with 100% certainty: debasement of paper currencies will continue" - Ah, at least some certainty in this world!
"...this site as some fringe lunatic goldbug asylum. Which we are not saying it isn't..."
- Shucks, Now I Am Confused - is it or isn't it?
Perhaps, "Roger Waters greatest hits" , is your mantra? Dip shit! I called the usd long in October. Just watch June!
It's always better to be underestimated.
Bold call, Durden.
Happy Saturday to you Tyler,
I am going to take this opportunity to present a contrary possibility. In lieu of the commonly anticipated QE Version X.X and the reason for the delay is because the 'market' is behaving like Pavlov's dog.
What if it is a set up for the introduction of a new currency based on the 'successful' history of the Euro. To usher this along we need to extend the pain and crank it up, hence, hinting at more QE but not delivering this time after many times demonstrating that is what will be done. It will encompass a much larger market, Europe, North America, and Asia perhaps. Based on the learnings from the Euro.
In summary, since the robbery has worked so well, and since no one is really held accountable, lets close down the current fraud before it comes apart and institute another one in its place with bigger and grander ideals. What better way to perpetuate the fraud and kick the can down the road a bit further with newer and upgraded methods of confusing the sheeple. Essentially, the new currency is a bigger, better, faster, cheaper version of the old one.
I am throwing this out as food for thought. Not a prediction though...No significant new QE, new currency introduction within approximately 18 months, no outright collapse but simply a grinding depression that wears away at everything and eventually gets us all. Wars, circuses ratched up for sufficient distraction, new currency portrayed as the 'solution' to the existing 'failed' currencies.
Taking the high level view, it seems this is a valid possibility.
Comments?
"introduction of a new currency" I heard a rumor about some Dutch, German and Swiss interests planning of setting up a "commercial currency" that would be a mix of commodity financing, a commodity futures exchange and a bank.
This would create a new commodity-based private-currency based on the needs of the harbour of Rotterdam. sf?
So you are locked and loaded @ 1.12500 on eur/chf?
I read Currency Wars over the Winter break and I agree with Rickards: The Bernank's entire playbook is ZIRP and stoking inflation fears. I also agree with Jim Rogers: All the Fed knows how to do is print money. Finally I agree with Kyle Bass: All the CB's will print more money. So: Gold is on sale. Buy 'em!
One needs to read a book to understand what is glaringly obvious? Odd
Stimulates the AMZN shares though...
You must be the stupid Tyler. I believe once you assume you know everything you are about to learn a tough lesson. But I'll mark you down as a "books are worthless" guy.
Not everything. Just, as noted, the glaringly obvious - that the Fed will print.
Out of curiosity, does Rickards have a book yet on how LTCM unleashed the same TBTF culture that he enjoys not so much these days?
And, btw, ad hominem always definitively proves one's point. Or something.
I bet this is your way of apologizing. I accept, or something.
One is free to bet, or assume, anything. That's what makes a market.
Free to play/bet with loaded dice -- didn't work out too well for Yudhisthira
Books, in and of themselves, ARE worthless
Look at the sheer volume of books put out by the assclowns running for political office (not just the WH) and their ghost writers.
For six and a half centuries books have been a convenient mechanism for recording and transferring information and critical thought.
In the good old days, when we all walked for miles in our bare feet just to get to school, the barriers to successful publishing and distribution at least kept some of the more worthless information and thought from being put into books.
The internet opened the door to the widespread two-way flow of information and critical thought that was never possible in books, radio, or television
The internet, however, has also debased, whatever baseline standards ever existied for the widespread distribution of information and thought.
Pick your favorite or most outlandish and BS nutter consiracy, your fellow ZHers could point you to an entire library's "worth" of books on the matter.
Always nice to see you down here in the comment section with us, Tyler. If you ever reply to one of my comments, I'll print it and frame it, even if it makes me looks like an ass.
Do you like my new avatar? I wanted a cool monochromatic one like yours. So I made one of Dale Gribble, because of his penchant for conspiracy theories. I've swallowed that Thunder Road report hook, line and sinker.
I rarely read any book. I still consider myself an intellectual.
Nowadays, knowledge can be acquired in more than one way.
Want a cookie?
When something stops growing, it starts to rot. Consider books to be fertilizer for the mind.
Tyler, one could argue that one wouldn't need to read a blog such as zh to understand the obvious, yet here we all are. Many of us who may not be as investment savvy as you may rely on reinforcement of the obvious since msm does their best to make the obvious not so obvious......
With QE a matter of time, financials may ironically (for the career risk crowd that is) be an interesting bet for those constrained to equities.
Especially European Banks... They'll likely get the same dose of fun money that the US Banks did circa March '09...
Wheeeeeee!
Bridgewater:
Europe, meanwhile, is headed into a potentially deep recession, with policy makers boxed in by an interconnected banking and sovereign-debt crisis.
"You've got insolvent banks supporting insolvent sovereigns and insolvent sovereigns supporting insolvent banks," he says.
Obama-Romney 2012! "New World Order You Can Believe In!"
The best analysis of the European mess was made by Clarke and Dawe:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5D0VhS8qXT0
Singapore $, Arizona wines, Idaho farmland.
With inflation on a yearly basis being around 12% (Shadowstats), how does that paper profits histogram stack up with physical Au and Ag?
How are bonds at 4% a bargain when inflation was 12%? (BLS 1980 calculation of inflation, again Shadowstats)
Unless I am missing something, those bonds are missing about 8% not including the additional losses in taxes on your 'gains'.
Seriously guys, help me out here...
Simple, the paper crowd ignores debasing currency, looking only at nominal gains ...like RoboTrader for example.
Dow is 12,000 give or take, but USD has lost 1/3 of it's value since '08, making the Dow 8,000 in '08 dollars.
And 1/3 is conservative. Some say USD has lost 40% of it's value since '08, which would make the Dow 7,200 in '08 dollars.
A little closer to home J6P has seen the value of his home drop 30% since '08.
But USD has also lost 1/3 of it's value, making the real loss 54% in '08 dollars.
But he's paying down the mortgage in dollars worth 1/3 less, offsetting some of that loss.
If the home is paid off, he bears the full 54% loss of value.
That's why having a home mortgaged to the hilt is his best defense against a steadily debasing dollar. His equity is 0, and 0 can't lose any value.
So in other words, it doesnt. Why do we even talk about the 'market'? Who cares?
While not explicitly the 'market', here are some charts I keep. I developed them when I was researching setting up my own business.
http://i1140.photobucket.com/albums/n579/bearasaur/GroceryMoM_4256_image...
http://i1140.photobucket.com/albums/n579/bearasaur/SupermktsMoM_15273_im...
http://i1140.photobucket.com/albums/n579/bearasaur/GroceryYoY_22732_imag...
http://i1140.photobucket.com/albums/n579/bearasaur/PMStatsr3_4801_image0...
I update them about once a month as the new census data comes out.
One more, this one is my favorite. Kind of sums it all up.
http://i1140.photobucket.com/albums/n579/bearasaur/PMStatsr3_13135_image...
Your "Income Per Capita" chart reveals why the economy is collapsing.
Steadily declining income in constant dollar terms (part of that negative slope), combined with steadily increasing job losses (the other part of that negative slope).
$15,000 per capita in 1980 dropping to $4,900 per capita in 2011. 2/3 loss of real income across the economy.
It's why the middle class is slipping down into the poor class.
Kudos to you Geezer, you nailed why I like it so much. It takes all the arguement about unemployment, underemployment, reduced wages, service economy, self employment, dropping off the rolls, blah, blah, and wraps it all up into one tight reasonably easy to read chart.
The only problem is that it is quite a gloomy depiction!
Except that wages are not tied to dollar debasement.
Just because I cannot see my internal organs, doesn't mean that they're not there.
Of course not.
And that's your problem.
That's a simplistic, to the point of being dangerous, just look at the simpletons who jumped into US housing market over the last decade- as the FED has hosed the dollar, they have gotten hosed.
Inflation WORKED! SARC ON!
SOooooo, why can’t the Financial industry or Government make statements that are as easy to read and understand? It is obvious that it can be done, as we can read it here. Beside the fact that it was an accurate projection, it was void of double speak and the riddle within a puzzle.
Bleak times can not be masked as the main stream media attempts to do. I like my information neat, straight up, with no watering down---thank you.
R-e-a-d B-e-t-w-e-e-n the lines!
Because if the MSM came out and said, "The consumer is bankrupt, the governments broke, the banks are fucked and we have no real economy," it would hasten the collapse and prevent the super rich from extracting every last possible bit of wealth from the commoners.
If the rest of 2012 goes like the first week of the year I may as well blow my brains out right now. Two family members lost jobs, one after 25 years the other after 14. My father is being forced into retirement after he lost most of his nest egg in the crash, he's sitting on $80k instead of $350k. My son fell and broke his leg and the company I work for will probably not last another three months due to some really bonehead decisions made by upper management. I've had to put out fires with every one of my retail buyers all week long. I'm also soooo happy that my water bill has doubled because Obama's EPA decided people in my town pay too little for water and threatened sanctions against my town unless they raised water rates. Apparently because we pay less it encourages waste even though the data shows we use less water than most towns half our size. 2012 can only get better because if it gets worse I'll probably be in a tower with a 50 cal.
"Come to me, all who labor and are heavy laden, and I will give you rest. Take my yoke upon you, and learn from me, for I am gentle and lowly in heart, and you will find rest for your souls. For my yoke is easy, and my burden is light.”
Repay no one evil for evil, but give thought to do what is honorable in the sight of all. If possible, so far as it depends on you, live peaceably with all. Beloved, never avenge yourselves, but leave it to the wrath of God, for it is written, “Vengeance is mine, I will repay, says the Lord.” To the contrary, “if your enemy is hungry, feed him; if he is thirsty, give him something to drink; for by so doing you will heap burning coals on his head.” Do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good.
Easy for me to quote I suppose. But I am sorry you are having a tough stretch.
aw c'mon! can't we just hang a few bastards?
Complicated question, but generally no. It can be frustrating!
"Judgement must come. But woe to him by whom it comes"
The great con by govs and religions have been to condition the people to be sheep. Meanwhile these foundations of humankind have, throughout the ages, inflicted mass violence on the sheep in order that a select few hold on to positions of power. Anyone who thinks that violence doesn't work has missed that history proves otherwise.
"He who thinks he can kill and he who thinks he can be killed are both mistaken. No weapon can pierce the life that informs you; no fire can burn it; no water can drench it; no wind can make it dry." -- Krishna, to Arjuna, in "The Mahabharata."
average YEARLY SALARY IN INDIA IS $2000
good luck competing with indians
But there's a 1000% corruption tax on the buyer of that labor.
Let's not forget a war in 2012 would do wonders for commodities in general!
and don't forget! no US president ever lost re-election during war! it's all planned this way people!!!
I think that's priced in. Good point though. I can't wait to see crude prices into the ( Northern Hemisphere) holiday season!
Did ya notice the gap widening on Brent /Cushing again?
If the Krazy Kleptomatic Keynesian Krugmanites rule in 2012, then the new reality show will be
"breaking windows with the stars to stimulate the economy"
Cornelius: You're a monster, Zorg.
Zorg: I know.
LOL! I guess I wasn't the only one thinking about Krugman during Zorg's "broken glass" theory
And the US is still suffering. If you look at employment trends (other than the misleading Civilian Unemployment Rate), you see a bad labor trend.
See Civilian Employment to Population ratio and inverse of the Labor Participation Rate (aptly termed the "Labor Misery Index")
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/01/06/unemployment-actually...
So the US had better do something to cure its economic woes rather tham stimulus and other temporary band-aids.
Krugman is a bowl of ( worm dirt)!
I'm not sure what worked in 2011 but I know our government shit the bed like an incontinent 90 year old suffering from dementia.
Other than that I really had no other concerns.
I know what won't work this year; Santorum 2012
those who blog here enjoy fringe benefits...L0L!!!
like: utilities were -2.9% last week
but as i recall, the recommended spreads were "closed out" a while back...
basically, beware of putting [all] your eggs in "account$ & market$ & asset$" which are completely under control of criminals, although tyler puts it more palatably as avoiding a "flash crash"
uncle scrooge needed to avoid the beagle boyz; i always thought those comics overstated the # of robbers and their dedication to stealing old mcDuck's money
what the hell did i know?
Ma Beagle needs to keep her legs together... :>D
2012: plenty of physical cash on hand, big berkey filter, lots of canned foods, dehydrated foods, frozen foods, grains, first aid items, natural anti-virals, hone your tradeable skills, toiletries, and a means to defend them.....
Yep. Silver is tradable and a lot more useful than a ounce of gold.
Do you know how to read a demand chart? ( XAG ) Negative!
Arr Matey!
+1 for saying arr instead of argh, Matey
Zadok,
Interesting theory. I have wondered aloud to my friends and family about the possibility of a global currency. I don't see how TPTB pull it off without a huge crisis. People would have to be going totally batshit crazy (and be very very afraid) before they accept a single currency. I cannot recall the source, but I read something recently about people in Germany who still hold D-Marks. In fact, a significant percentage of D-Marks in circulation were never turned in for Euros. This suggests a general resistance at the core of the Euro Zone of fiscal unification. What happens when this idea is expanded to regions not so closely tied by politics, culture, or economics? We know that in most central planning economies, there is black market banking, so why not competing currencies if all hell breaks loose? It doesn't seem to matter if it is illegal or not, people still look for sanity in a system where rules only apply to those who follow them. I view QE as the only out for most central banks and their affiliated sovereigns. I think we will see some very large banks go down as scapegoats and as "emblematic of the excesses of a few corporations" and then QE will paper over the gaping maw that results. For those who have money...who gives a shit?! A twenty - thirty dollar loaf of bread is still affordable, right?! As far as whether it is viewed as fraud...look around you. How many regular citizen types do you know who ever even think about QE and its far reaching consequences? Sure, people are upset about bailouts and what is viewed as excess on Wall Street. I have yet to hear my neighbors or my employees talk about what actually happened or is about to happen in any intelligent manner. The public is pretty easy to hoodwink, sir. I think it has to completely unravel before anything like a new global or multinational currency emerges. That way, whatever that currency is, it can look like a hero or a savior. That seems like the easiest way to sell poop to a pig farmer.
@ Snapperton
I think we are on the same page. With minor variations given for localities etc, this statement was where I was trying to sum it up.
No significant new QE, new currency introduction within approximately 18 months, no outright collapse but simply a grinding depression that wears away at everything and eventually gets us all. Wars, circuses ratched up for sufficient distraction, new currency portrayed as the 'solution' to the existing 'failed' currencies.
But now with the new normal being all kinds of bizzarro, while there may be an event or series of events to push it over, the grinding depression that inexorably eats away at peoples income until they can no longer function could be the main driver. Or not, either way I'll stick with the 'smart criminal' methodology, get in quick and fast, make you money and get out before the people get wise. I don't think it really matters how we get there, only that is works.
I go with Snapper's, they can't do it with out a crisis. In a slow, grinding situation, people can adapt. And it looks to me like we are being set up for a global whopper of a crisis: Almost every developed nation bankrupt. Central and major banks insolvent. And global finances so intertwined that if one dominoe falls, they all do.
I think they have it all set up for a global financial / monetary collapse. Let the people soak in that for six months and they'll be begging for that new, world currency to salve their woes.
I need to take my tin-foil hat off and go chop some firewood, or do something else productive...
the globalists intent is to herald in a digital currency! with one world bank, will be easy to steal our money, withdraw taxes as desired! the bright side, just one card in your wallet!
VIX seems to eerily quiet... Seems like some shock & awe might be around the corner...
2011: Banner year for guns and carry permits...
re: fringe lunatic goldbug asylum
My father would setup and operate many small mining plants in outback Australia, and so as a child I spent weeks roaming the landscape using eyes, pans and detectors to find gold, which I promptly sold at $10 a gram for cash (for lollies) at the local Jewish coinshop. So I think any goldbug routines are a result of non intentional adult directed childhood indoctrination and extremely positive pleasure reinforcement.
Based on the many hundreds of thousands of ZH comments I have read over the last year or so, I completely agree with the fringe lunatic asylum part though, as does my brother, who just glanced at them once and then wrote the site off. You lot aren't quite as bad as the nutcases who comment at InformationClearingHouse though. My bro far prefers the Aussie macrobusiness superblog. He is mostly normal.
"Lunatic gold-bug asylum"?
Nah, just a lot of pissed off regular folks who are using the Internet and their own brain to avoid once again becoming victims of the stuffed shirts and skirts of Wall Street and Washington.
I'd wager that many still in Rip Van Winkle mode may awake after a year of mainline 401K funds going nowhere or down 5%-10%.
"Where are the green shoots!?"
"I thought the economy was recovering!?"
After: the lost decade of 1998-2008, the well publicized and un-punished skullduggery by the high and mighty, and the abject incompetence of the supposed caretakers of the future; be not surprised that the inmates are leaving the officially sanctioned asylums of brokers, advisers, and their long term diversified failure - to create their own asylums, where they can at least write their own scrips.
Those "lunitic gold bugs" have been pulling an average 23% annual gain on their holding for the past 10 years running. Crazy foxes!
So sad that gold only gained 15% this year. Such a pity. Well, maybe better luck this year, Hmm?
I have been looking at Gas Producers in the US. There are periods of time between 3-9 months when the share appreciation AND ramping dividends produces a very nice return indeed. Corelated 50 and 200 MDA's seem to be the best buy/sell indicators on these. you can pull in 10-40% gains on the trade, which annualizes nicely.
I don't doubt that the Bernanke will want to do some form of QE in light of the fact that so much debt has to be financed but under what pretense besides the obvious. The economy and jobs picture seems to be recovering slightly unless all the numbers are simply outrageous lies. The economy I would think would have to be going into a recession before QE would be acceptable medicine. Seems like a bit of a conundrum don't you think Tyler.
I know the LSAPs of mortgages have been floated around but again this would no doubt be political suicide as contracts would have to be broken with alot of MBS that is heavily in pension plans as I understand it.
I'm just wondering how in the heck the maniac can justify QE and under what circumstance do you see it happening. Then again it hasn't really mattered any time prior.
The Bernank will deploy more QE, whether it be LSAP's or currency swaps for Europe or backdoor lending; it's all about "The Economy" which in FED speak is the banks, Wall Street, and Equity prices. To hell with the average household, the retiree, the savers.
Reference 2008 and TARP, TALF, etc. "If we don't save the banks it will hurt everyone." Yeah sure. "If you don't buy this magazine we'll kill the dog" justifications from our oh so noble CONgress (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Lampoon_%28magazine%29)
The BLS numbers are close to outrageous lies. Put simply, they do not count the millions who have been unemployed post 2008 whose unemployment insurance has run out. Nor do they count discouraged part time workers. "Employment" doesn't mean "Career job that will pay the bills". A good site to see a more realistic +15% unemployment or higher here: http://www.shadowstats.com/
The economy is not improving; it has been reflated using public and private debt, along with the scavenging of savings and assets.
QE-X will be employed to maintain perceptions, especially because it is an election year and Keynesian acolytes such as Bernanke cannot get beyond the simple minded notion that debt spending in a debt crisis is a wise course of action.
Discuss: Brent Yearly Average
Exponential population growth and a need for increased mechanized production and more production per/acre using oil based tillage, planting, irrigation, fertilization, pesticides, harvesting, transportation.
People will pay what they have to for food, which means nations will pay what they have to for oil.
"Judgement must come. But woe to him by whom it comes."
Beginning in September 2011, the US Dollar, $USD, UUP, began to rise, and there was a flight to safety in Dollar Stocks. The Dollar Rally took Energy Partnerships, AMJ, Pharmaceuticals, IHE, Health Care, XLV, Staples, XLP, Utilities, XLU, and Dividend Payers, DVY, as seen in this Yahoo Finance Chart AMJ, IHE, XLV, XLP, XLU, DVY, DTN, higher. I do not expect these to continue to be safe haven investments in 2012. It may be that the commodity gasoline, UGA, has bottomed out in price, and may be headed somewhat higher in 2012, because there is a global Eurasia War coming, which will be centered in Syria and also in Iran. Gold is both a currency and a commodity that is going to be in demand. The scope and intensity of this war is going to be extreme, Reuters reports West Readies Oil Stocks Release As Iran Plans War Games.