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What's Wrong With This Chart?

Tyler Durden's picture





 

One (and by one, we mean the incumbent presidential candidate) can only hope that consumer comfort tracked by Bloomberg is not a leading market indicator... Of course, with Wall Street now solidly on the side of Mitt Romney, and well aware it needs to crash the S&P ahead of November if Romney is to have a running chance, this may well be the case.

 

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index vs S&P 500...

 

Chart: Bloomberg

 


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Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:43 | Link to Comment holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

Hey, the green line and red line are no longer tracking together... /sarc

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:49 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

yep, it means algos don't need comfort nor confidence

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:52 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

"Correlations between markets and consumer sentiment are hereby null and void" - Ben Bernanke

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:10 | Link to Comment Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

It'll correct itself, but only AFTER the election.

Doesn't matter who wins, but nothing will happen before that. 

After that..............hide yo kids

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:36 | Link to Comment AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

market priced in FED's stimulus.

consumers not pricinging in...also consumption gets eaten away via inflation while market reflects inflation.

 

no wage increase for last 3 years means 3 *4% = 12% wage CUT

 

http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/4e9a0fb86bb3f7754b000000/income...

 

infact last 15 years has been terrible for workers.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:39 | Link to Comment SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Hey, dummies!  The green line is supposed to drag the red line along with it!  Be comfortable, dammit!  Don't you know what "wealth effect" means?

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:42 | Link to Comment bdc63
bdc63's picture

CLEARLY what the 'consumer comfort' number needs is a BLS birth/death adjustment ....

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:40 | Link to Comment Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

Bush did it.

 

No wait, the TOTUS said you didn't build that on your own, the government helped.  I think I'll give the government full credit for this one.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:50 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

"crash" is SP 1000 > Romney > QE4 > SP 1250 > QE5 > ... > SP 780

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:08 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

you don't live in the same land as Joe W :

US Economy Relative Strength - Business Insider 

Three Reasons The US Economy Is Doing Better Than Everywhere Else In The World - Business Insider

You don't drink the Kool Aid this guy drinks ! Lol!

You're more on this tack, as published by the all accomodating BI who panders to all tastes :

The End Of US Economic Growth - Business Insider

Well, well, the Usa the envy of the world and at the end of its thether...something tells me the world of BI is very round! 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 13:01 | Link to Comment STP
STP's picture

Great article by the "Business Insider"!  Not many articles wrap up all of the problems associated with the lack of growth.  A good example is demographics.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:28 | Link to Comment RationalPrepper
RationalPrepper's picture

Vast-dom,

 

Please include dates on QE4, SP1250, QE5, and SP780 so I can trade accordingly,

Thanks - RP

 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:53 | Link to Comment HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

Yep. Been following this data point for weeks yet never, ever a mention of it anywhere except here and Bloomberg, of course.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 12:12 | Link to Comment WatchingIgnorance
WatchingIgnorance's picture

Green shoots, bitchez!

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:45 | Link to Comment Spider
Spider's picture

Wrong - people arent buying bonds anymore so nowhere for the money to go except stocks and bullion.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:48 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

thats a real interesting observation spider. worth watching.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:01 | Link to Comment Spider
Spider's picture

Whats interesting is if the Fed does NOT do QE then who is left to buy US bonds?  Bond prices rise and existing bondholders get slammed, which is good for stocks and commodities because all that bond money has to go somewhere.

If the Fed does QE then we know what happens to stocks and commodities...

Look at the US 10-yr today, down only 1.3% while the German 10 yr is down 6% even with stocks dropping.  Could people start abandoning US bonds BEFORE the Euro crisis is resolved, which is AGAINST popular opinion? (i.e. US Dollar gets stronger b/c Euro-crisis hasnt been resolved).  Not sure but if you want to be a contrarian thats where you'd be..

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:04 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

THe playbook says crash Europe, therefore Europe buys US treasuries, China gets scared again and starts buying because it still has not figured out what to do. I also think every 401k ends up in a bond fund next leg down. Why try for 8% in the S&P as long as you can get 5% in your bond fund every year?

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:14 | Link to Comment Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

Spider and Fonz - Nice lovefest you two have going on, same person? No time for me to refute point by point but your analysis is terrible and needs to be challenged. I am simply posting this for anyone thinking the above analysis holds water. Later.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

china buys PM's and dumps US paper since their exports are going down the drain anyhow.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:21 | Link to Comment Spider
Spider's picture

Nah Fonz and I arent the same person ... not sure what i'd gain by creating profiles simply to respond affirmatively to my posts since I really could care less if people agree or not.  I'd rather hear why they disagree

So Alea, i'd love to hear who's going to be buying those Fed bonds without QE?

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:47 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

People who are scared silly when the stuff starts getting thrown off the blades of the fan will buy the bonds is my guess. The Fed may or may not be able to help this ailing economy but they can certainly roil up enough fear to get the bonds sold. You'll know its here when El Erian and the other gloom and doomers get lots of MSM face time. They may be a bit delayed this time because they only appear toward the end of the dump and this one has just been birthed. Dropping from the strong resistance in the S&Ps mid 1400's would have been more impressive but we may have to settle for the double top scenario. Who knows, maybe they have one more mini-ramp left in them and we'll get our wishes.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 12:42 | Link to Comment poor fella
poor fella's picture

How many times can that occur though? Another balloon that needs to be constantly inflated (unless the govt actually tackled the budget), which they are too polarized and happy NOT to do (since priority number 1 = deadlock). They'll scare up enough bond buyers a few times, but gradually that money is moved and dead.. Inflated equity markets are the same - when the markets start falling (especially on low volume) and perceived value of the superstars is finally deflated, equity and assets will be vaporized and the Fed pumping was all for nought. These money flows are not producing wealth, just another chance to churn and fee, on the way down. There is absolutely NO WAY to reinflate the financial system from the top - it destroys 90% of the base the top is built upon. Nobody wants handouts or will accept socialism forever, contrary to popular belief, because people LIKE to work - The debt/consumer/service system is locking up, which is why the landing will not be easy.

This is 'The Forest' I perceive through the trees. It's possible our representatives can get their shit together, even if ONLY to save their own necks, but I'm not counting on it.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 14:13 | Link to Comment Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

"i'd love to hear who's going to be buying those Fed bonds without QE?"

I completely agree with what is implied here, ie., the bond market is way, way the fuck overpriced in the absence of serious Fed intervention, but the thing is, the Fed has been intervening all along here, and I doubt they would discontinue this practice anytime soon.  Keep in mind, they don't actually have to announce shit in order for said shit to happen.  

"all that bond money has to go somewhere."

If bonds do go to shit, it's not a given that it's going to go into stocks/commodities.  While I personally invest heavily in real currency (gold), I don't necessarily anticipate a stampeding herd, and with retail more or less perma-out of the stock market, I see people just sitting in cash to be perfectly honest.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:21 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

alea thanks for your insight. i will really take it to heart. 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:33 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

TLT has regained 38% of its month long drop in the last couple days, after making a double bottom. Who knows if it hits the insane highs again but those of us in the housing market have our fingers crossed.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:16 | Link to Comment LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

fonzannoon

Look who wants to put your 401K into a privately run system 

 

snip

Two weeks ago, Sen. Tom Harkin (D., Iowa) proposed revamping the U.S. retirement system by replacing the 401(k) with a privately run retirement plan that would provide lifetime income benefits, similar to a pension.

Now, a new report from Fidelity Investments paints an optimistic picture of the 401(k)’s impact. On Aug. 2, Fidelity released an analysis of the 11.9 million 401(k) accounts it administers. Since 2009, the company says, the average employee contribution in the second quarter rose by $150, to $1,660. Employers, for their part, contributed an average of $950 in the second quarter, up $90 since 2009.

“Rising contribution levels from both employees and employers show a strong commitment that both have to workplace savings plans,” James McDonald, president of Workplace Investing for Fidelity, said in a prepared statement.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:25 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

that mechanism already exists in the form of a variable annuity. i am surprised zh does not post more about them. maybe alea can shed some light...oh wait he has nothing intelligent to add

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:51 | Link to Comment Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

Two weeks ago, Sen. Tom Harkin (D., Iowa) proposed revamping the U.S. retirement system by replacing the 401(k) with a privately run retirement plan that would provide lifetime income benefits, similar to a pension.

Komrade Harkin is a fellow Communist by any other name. He is also a 1st class imbecile and possibly senile. That said, stealing, appropriating  401K money is his ultimate wet dream. Then he can really help pay off all the friends, pals and cronies of the elite. He is a petty thief of the lowest brand.

 

FORWARD SOVIET!

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 12:23 | Link to Comment Arnold
Arnold's picture

The reason for this seeming increase is that traditional pension funds are poorly funded. New hires(less than 5 years) are generally required by contract to paticipate in the 401k system and old hires for the most part do not think they will receive a full pension that they were promised.....Also as a savings plan, you can generally borrow against it.... The Fidelity 401k plans that I have contributed to charge high fees, making it very difficult to have positive returns.... And the period to become vested is very long,3-4 years. If you are not vested, you loose the company match at separation.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:58 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'No place for the money to go except stocks and PM's', well smart people dont forget guns and ammo, and some extra clothes and boots and food and stuff cant hurt either...I bet most people on financial sites dont even own 1 pair of decent boots yet try to figure how to buy another share of Apple.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:51 | Link to Comment FLUSA.com
FLUSA.com's picture

And real estate....Im seeing people buy large commercial deals for crazy money.  For example people buying entire unsold condo projects for full retail value on a per unit basis. One would think you get a bulk discount.  Not to mention the insane carry cost these things have too.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:01 | Link to Comment kridkrid
Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:08 | Link to Comment FLUSA.com
FLUSA.com's picture

lol funny clip

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:13 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I'll never buy real estate its the worst investment ever, people are crazy to keep jumping into that fraud. You never end up 'owning' it at all youre just a renter.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 12:14 | Link to Comment Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Exactly.  They can raise your property taxes up until you can't afford to keep it.  They don't even need eminent domain to run you off your property.

Also, if the SHTF, how are you going to keep squatters out of your lake cabin, or hunting cabin or off other property you might own?  You will be paying for them to own your property.  Good luck defending your properties unless they are all relatively close together.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:28 | Link to Comment I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

Wrong - people arent buying bonds anymore so nowhere for the money to go except stocks and bullion.

Oh, mon friar, you are wrong.  It can be piled up and burned.  It can be used for toilet paper but isn't absorable at the real stuff.  It can be used for Monopoly money.  It can be used as confetti after the end of the next world war. Oh, it can be used to judge the worth of others. 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 14:43 | Link to Comment 11b40
11b40's picture

It can simply sit on the sidelines.  After all, we keep hearing about all the trillions sitting on the sidelines just waiting for this development, or that magic catalyst, or sudden clarity as to what the future holds.....which is pure BS. 

Investors are waiting for fundmentals to improve.  Not day traders, algos, momo's, etc.

Businesses are waiting for DEMAND to return before putting capital to work.

All the rest is just noise.  When someone has a real bona fide asnwer as to how to jump start that virtuous cycle once, please let me know. 

Obummer has not been able to do it, as he licked the boots of the leeches who got us here.

Romey won't do it, as he is joined at the hip of that same tribe of leeches who got us here.

All the answers are politically unpopular - or so they think.  The people could probably handle the honesty, but whoever tries to be honest will be curcified by the opposition promising the people they have a "secret plan" to turn unicorn farts into gold if they get elected.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 14:44 | Link to Comment 11b40
11b40's picture

It can simply sit on the sidelines.  After all, we keep hearing about all the trillions sitting on the sidelines just waiting for this development, or that magic catalyst, or sudden clarity as to what the future holds.....which is pure BS. 

Investors are waiting for fundmentals to improve.  Not day traders, algos, momo's, etc....INVESTORS

Businesses are waiting for DEMAND to return before putting capital to work.

All the rest is just noise.  When someone has a real bona fide asnwer as to how to jump start that virtuous cycle once, please let me know. 

Obummer has not been able to do it, as he licked the boots of the leeches who got us here.

Romey won't do it, as he is joined at the hip of that same tribe of leeches who got us here.

All the answers are politically unpopular - or so they think.  The people could probably handle the honesty, but whoever tries to be honest will be curcified by the opposition promising the people they have a "secret plan" to turn unicorn farts into gold if they get elected.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:45 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

I think this chart means peace, prosperity, and unicorns riding unicycles.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:53 | Link to Comment Ignatius J Reilly
Ignatius J Reilly's picture

welp, there was a picture I was trying to post here of a unicornbrowcycle (unicore with a unibrow riding a unicycle).  Just give me the benefit of the doubt that it was funny.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:19 | Link to Comment TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

well, ya coulda posted the damn link anyhow:

unibrow-unicorn-unicycle

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:46 | Link to Comment schatzi
schatzi's picture

Clearly the consumer is misinformed by the likes of Zerohedge. It's all good. Trust me.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:57 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

I'm having some major renovations done to my house in SE Florida. I asked him, moments after reading your comment (yes, I know sarcasm when I see it), how his future business looked. He wasn't optomistic, whereas he was more upbeat several months ago. Anecdotal evidence only.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:47 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

what percentage of obummer supporters have a lot of money in the market? if the market crashed obummer would offer that to his base and they would cheer it.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:55 | Link to Comment toady
toady's picture

I don't care about obama, but I would cheer a market crash. The sooner the financial crimes against humanity stop the better off we'll be. I mean a real wipe out, no coming back from this kinda deal.

Stop digging the hole!

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:02 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Seems like many major league bankers support Obama, so...

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:59 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

He's not called Zero for nothing.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:47 | Link to Comment crawl
crawl's picture

The algos won't sell.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 12:02 | Link to Comment viahj
viahj's picture

sell to who?  who's there to buy but other algos?  someone is going to have to take the hit for the Wall Street Team.  now, who will be sacrificed to buy the crash and explode so the green light is given to Ben to CTRL-P?

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:48 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Wall St and Central Banksters want 'much hated whitey repub' puppet back in now to take all the heat for the coming collapse. Bank on it. At a credit union of course, not JP Morgue.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:02 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Wall Street does? That's a good one. USA Inc wants the Republicans back in charge...not a bunch of bailout tycoons. And if they have "the full faith and credit of the US Army that has never been more fully deployed in it's History" then I must say "will be hard to say no." or is it know?

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:12 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL...WHAT?? The republicrats and demicans have NEVER been in charge of jack shit! You odviously dont understand the big picture here at all. 'We want the 'bailout tycoons OUTTA THERE' LOLMAO really.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:04 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

You mean like 'much hated mulatto demo' has "taken all the heat" for the prior collapse?

Seems like a pretty good gig, if you ask me.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

ObaMao was 'the black face on the new world order' as I said years ago for the very reason no one can criticize him, and of course full media backing he's their boy....OF COURSE he didnt get blamed for anything, all the problems were the fault of 'past hated whitey repub Bush' and still are TODAY!

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:29 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I just think it's simpler than that: keep people fearful, pissed off, and divided all the time and give them the illusion of "choosing a better way" every few years.

Lather, rinse, repeat.

Forever.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 14:51 | Link to Comment Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Precisely.

http://www.opensecrets.org/industries/index.php

This is the actual government.  Your vote isn't an illusion per se, it just happens to be way the fuck less valuable than is typically stated.  Want a say in your government?  Make money, and then use it to influence politicians.  I advise people to spend local, your dollar goes a lot farther.  Aldermen give a shit about a $100 contribution.  You get to talk to them and even get some stuff you want in front of people that decide things.  Or, you could just run for the office yourself and outspend your opponent.  Tends to work.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:48 | Link to Comment eurusdog
eurusdog's picture

Looks like Christmas! USD complacency in front of next Friday, IMO, is high. QE3 is 150% priced in and the disappointment could be U-G-L-Y!

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:50 | Link to Comment alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

Of course, they have to make sure that the public does not ever realize that the stock market is not an indicator of the "overall" economy but rather of the economy of the top 1% in order for this ploy to work.

That's the dirty little secret they try to keep the children from learning.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:28 | Link to Comment LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

alien-IQ

Yes Marx was clever

"QE (quantitative easing) is essentially the printing of money and the addition of liquidity into the markets so that stock (and other asset) prices are given an artificial boost. Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke believes that by pulling up stocks, the masses will feel richer and spend more on consumer goods, thus lifting up the economy. This is based on Karl Marx's reflexivity theory (George Soros essentially paraphrased Marx) that states by turning the small wheel (stocks), you can turn the big wheel (economy), which in turn will come back and turn up the small wheel (stocks). Bernanke subscribes to such a theory, and he wants QE to lift up the small wheel (stocks), which he hopes will lift up the big wheel (the economy)."


Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:50 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

they still buy craapl tho

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:50 | Link to Comment Jason T
Jason T's picture

The disintigration will continue and there is no power great enough to stop it.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:51 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Is Wall street really behind Mittens or would they just like it appear that they are to lessen his chances? It seems to me that they are doing fine under the current regime, why would they want to shake that up? Not that they wouldn't do fine under Mittens, but if it's not broke don't fix it right?

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:56 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The Central Banksters definitely want 'hated whitey repub' so he can be torn to shreds by the media et al for the coming total shitstorm, excellent diversion....and criminal banksters can say 'HEY it was all goin FINE till THIS fukin guy came and ruined it!'

Masterful really.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:59 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It's hard to tell what they want. It seems to me that if they wanted Obummer out they would start a shit storm in the markets. He has been good to them so why would they want to change that? To me the money to Romney is plan B money..just in case he gets in bribery money.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:04 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well of course ObaMao is 'good to them', theyre ALL good to them or they get a rifle round thru the dome.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:07 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Heads they win, tails we lose.

It's real dog fight, but the dogs have the same owner.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:26 | Link to Comment kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

It's one part WWF (wrestling, not wildlife) and one part __________ (choose your favorite reality TV program).  I like the wrestling analogy because it provides that very simple A vs. B like our political system does.  But reality TV is really the better analogy.  Reality TV is all about casting.  Cast the people who can provide the most compelling TV along the way.  The outcome doesn't really matter.  Survivor doesn't care if the hot girl or the disgusting middle aged man wins, as long as people are talking about it along the way.  Everything is loosely scripted, but the actors are free to play their role along the way. 

I think that the campaigns are mostly real.  I think the paid staff are paid real money, use real political tactics and are really trying to win an election.  But the producers of the show can certainly step in when they need to.  Chum is thrown to the media to "mix it up".  And when they need to directly step in, they can (see the secret meeting between Hilary and Obama in the 2008 primary). 

And while I do think the camps are free to fight it out, I also think it's easy enough for them to "tip the scale".  There are all sorts of stories that could "run their course" that could sink either campaign, if allowed to.  Clinton's infidelity during his primary season was no different from what sunk Gary Hart... only it didn't sink Clinton.  Instead, they created for Clinton the label of the comeback candidate and added to his legacy. 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:32 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

You've posted something like this before and I think it's right on.

I post this all the time: our contemporary world is built on the willing suspension of disbelief.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:46 | Link to Comment kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

I have, at most, 5 or 6 thoughts that I simply recycle.

It's an amazing illusion, really (our contemporary world).  It's straight out of some science fiction novel, only it isn't. 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:08 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'In case he gets in'....what, as if the outcome has not already been decided long ago? Look people, the EMPLOYEES of the corporation do not decide who the new CEO is, the OWNERS always do!

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:20 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Well I firmly believe that Obummer will be in and Mittens is just plan B. I've always stated that. I also learned early on from a business owner when it came to political campaigns. He donated to a hostile candidate and I asked him ..What in the hell are you doing that for? He said" I don't believe he has a snowballs chance in hell to get elected, but just in case he does I don't want him making things more difficult for me".

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:30 | Link to Comment PlausibleDenial
PlausibleDenial's picture

Is there not a theory that Mittens is just a set up for Obama.  As stated here on ZH many times, this economy is a train wreck waiting to happen and cannot be corrected due to mathematical calcs.  So, Obama stays in takes the heat and the Repubs take 2016.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:40 | Link to Comment kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

what I think... I think Romney provides "them" with options.  It's not at all unlike Kerry vs. Bush.  Just like Bush was wildly unpopular in 2004, it would take a fairly horrific candidate for the R's not to have an auto-win in this election, I think. Enter Romney.

What I think part 2... if the elite who control the show and carefully vet anyone who might become president are better served by another 4 years of Obama, then we'll get another 4 years of Obama.  If they are better served by Romney, we'll get Romney.  And by "better served" it could mean (likely does mean) who is better to pin the blame on when this sucker continues to implode. 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:49 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I like your thinking.

Romney is such a poor candidate - in so many ways, not least of which is his demonstrated track record of political failure - it seems likely to me that he's nothing but a strawman. As a loser, he becomes a wedge to keep the proles divided and ever more eagerly at each other's throats. 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 12:00 | Link to Comment kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

The similarities between Romney and Kerry are almost too much.  Maybe I'm nothing more than the average football fan who thinks, "my god, I could coach that team to victory... just throw the damn ball downfield"... not really knowing the first thing about the game.  But really?  John Kerry is the best option that the Dems could come up with?  Mitt Romney... really? 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 12:49 | Link to Comment lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Mah Gawd, man! There will be no economy at all if we have more Hoax and Chains!

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 12:05 | Link to Comment De minimus
De minimus's picture

Except that you have a media who not only put their thumb on the scale but reach over and raise the other side while shouting "**"hey, look at that!"

Obama's a Marxist and so that means that they are supporting a Marxist and all the trouble and baggage that entails. Why would they do that? Because they are Marxists too and desperately want all the power and perks and privileges, earned by other people and all they have to do is lie to get it.

They want to ride in the Zils and watch everyone else walk in the snow, while blaming someone else for the conditions.

If the media told the truth we wouldn't be having these problems but they don't because they have an agenda, which they service unfailingly, the Marxist cause and of course, themselves.

Just like the good old Soviets of old.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 12:15 | Link to Comment kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

you and I both have narratives... and we both assume that things are not what we are led to believe, correct?  In your narrative, the media is hiding the fact that they are "marxists" and that the president is a "marxist", correct?  My narrative suggests that the label "marxist" is some made up bullshit.  What is really being covered up isn't "marxism" it's something closer to fascism.  It's run by global finance, enforced by the military industrial complex, and sold to us by the media and public schooling. We are coming to the end of Bush's 3rd, or Clinton's 5th, or GHWB's 6th, or Reagan's 8th or Carter's 9th, etc. etc. etc. term in office.  Same as it ever was.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 12:21 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

or are we completing Obama's reigning? Obama 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, etc.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 12:44 | Link to Comment kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Never say never, but sooooooo much is gained by the illusion that our vote counts.  We keep voting in the same dictator.  aint democracy grand?

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:57 | Link to Comment The worst trader
The worst trader's picture

they know that if reelected he will pull the rug out from under them or us as it may be.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:53 | Link to Comment Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

That Comfort chart makes me uncomfortable.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:54 | Link to Comment NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

The red line is called a lagging indicator...once people see their 401k statements, red will catch up to green and flowers will bloom in the desert.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:36 | Link to Comment sdmjake
sdmjake's picture

Hope you are right ('hope' is a lousy investment strategy) but even desert flowers need rain to bloom and it looks more like a drought to me....

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 10:58 | Link to Comment LiesAreTheOnlyTruth
LiesAreTheOnlyTruth's picture

Since the Fed's charter says they can buy "assets as deemed necessary to support its goals" ... and we know from congressional hearings they are missing upwards of 10T in "off balance" sheet money ... what's to keep the Fed from just buying up 1/2 the supply of the stock market and holding on to it? 

That would only require 20T or so of keystrokes ... seems they're half way there ... and with unlimited buying power, no fear of loss and no accoutability to anyone via secret operations ... I would think inflating the market & real estate would be win win. No matter what the news, if the supply is cut by a significant enough amount, and regulations are changed to punish or just disallow shorting, then nothing can really take the market down right?

If you inflate stocks, retired ppl are happy.  If you inflate real estate, governments don't go broke because tax revenue comes back.

Seem legit :)

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 15:14 | Link to Comment Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

"If you inflate stocks, retired ppl are happy."

Given that financial repression is the mechanism, no, retired people (who are mostly in bonds/CD's) are actually pretty fucking pissed.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:02 | Link to Comment hedgehog9999
hedgehog9999's picture

Of course the danger here for shorts is that Obummer will realize his demise here and then ask his bitch Bernanke to have an emergency QE and therefore save the economy from those pesky European issues and Chinese slow down, etc.

He will make himself look like the savior in the face of a huge cliff, and therefore save the economy.

Of course this will have to be well written in a teleprompter with good back up so he doesn't go blank in the middle of uttering sentences.......

 

 

 

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:02 | Link to Comment russwinter
russwinter's picture

I completely agree with ZH's assertion that the kleptocrat class is going to smash this market to impact the election. 

Then they will use shock doctrine, discussed here: 

http://www.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=5243

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:06 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I was saying that months ago here and getting scoffed at.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:09 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I find the prediction unlikely, but possible.

We shall see...

Your early calls on (non)QE were good.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:20 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Its not just lucky guesses at all either.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:26 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

Many balls up in the air. Pulling the plug on Iran and Syria combined, to cut a deep wedge into Kurdistan, future oil republic, all the while neutralising Egypt by taking out the army high command, causing internal confusion : many possibilities abroad for shock doctrine play. If Iran/israel breaks out then it practically means reelection of incumbent. So the repubs are going to try stall any fast move there; all the while Israel pulls at the bit. What can Romney do to influence public opinion on that front?

At home, its fiscal and entitlements which are front page, and Obama is bashing the fiscal cliff argument on ROmney's head. 

Shock Doctrine is a strategy which favors whom finally; if it comes fast...at home an economic downturn favors Romney; abroad not so sure if TSHF.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:41 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

That we live on a giant chess board (Go board?) is such a tranparently obvious fact, that I am always amazed when others insist on taking events at face value.

As a former public school "educator," I feel somewhat justified in putting much of the blame on public schooling, particularly federal policies that have been put in place since the "Nation At Risk" report from 1983.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:09 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

Boom / Bust nothing changes

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:20 | Link to Comment ivars
ivars's picture

Sapo's joint:http://saposjoint.net/Forum/index.php

For those who sometimes visit that site where I come from and post at - its down with disk failure, may take time to restore.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:24 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Typical fraud vs reality divergence chart.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:29 | Link to Comment dingoj
dingoj's picture

edit - whatever

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:32 | Link to Comment mrktwtch2
mrktwtch2's picture

well whoever wins..at least this wont be hanging over the market anymore...lol

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:34 | Link to Comment the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

the bush people crashed the market to try hold on to power (cancel the elections) and to poison the ground for the new democratic president. (to avoid the myth that wall street is a republican org, consider that goldman contributed 2x to obama what they did to mccain, and that despite all the boiler plate, wall street sold shares from the day W was inaugurated until the start of the iraq war, and it was a long way down.) w bush started in recession and ended in recession, and this term will end in recession too, jobs are coming back but the bad news is they're CHINESE jobs, low pay, no benefits, no union, (only commie bastards join a union), and lower living standards - THAT's what this chart is all about, and Romney is just the sort of guy to welcome those jobs back..

see what wall street did for you? they brought your jobs back..

 

obama on the other hand would leave you sitting on the couch with your food stamps and your section 8 rent subsistence, and your universal healthcare. if we get the jobs BACK from China and we keep all those goodies, things might be tolerable, but it looks like either or.  

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 12:19 | Link to Comment realtick
realtick's picture

I'll tell you exactly what's wrong with it - it's completely unreadable.

Whoever creates your charts should be fired immediately.

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 12:35 | Link to Comment LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

What's Wrong With This Chart?

Answer it proves obama's policies are not working

"One (and by one, we mean the incumbent presidential candidate) can only hope that consumer comfort tracked by Bloomberg is not a leading market indicator."

Has consumer comfort been a leading market indicator?

NO the market's have risen on bad economic news 

The S&P 500 (Right Before QE3?)

Who better to crash the S&P then ben? But who's side is ben really on?

"He points out that the Fed said unless incoming data point to “substantial and sustainable” strengthening in the recovery more accommodation is likely to be “warranted fairly soon.”

Fairly soon is an interesting construction given that we are approximately 10 weeks away from the presidential election and nearly a year ago Congressional Republican leaders took the unprecedented step of writing Fed Chairman Bernanke “expressing their reservations” regarding additional Fed intervention. They wrote “the board should resist further extraordinary intervention in the U.S. economy,”

http://www.futuresmag.com/2012/08/22/did-fed-telegraph-qe3-at-last-meeting?ref=hp

Congress to Bernanke: Do less, not more

snip

Judging from recent economic commentary, there are plenty of economists who think the Federal Reserve needs to do much, much more to juice the U.S. economy. Scott SumnerPaul Krugman, and the Economist have all lambasted Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on this front.

But in Congress, this view seems curiously absent. On Thursday morning, Bernanke testifiedbefore the U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee. Republicans at the hearing were quick to criticize the Fed chairman over recent reports that the central bank might contemplate more “quantitative easing” — the so-called QE3 — to jump-start the stalling recovery. Very few Democrats, however, offered any sort of counterbalance. At the moment, most of the political pressure on Bernanke is to do lessstimulus, not to do more.

 

“I wish you would take QE3 off the table,” said Texas Rep. Kevin Brady, the ranking Republican on the committee. “I wish you would look the markets in the eye and say that the Fed has done too much.” Similarly, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) complained to Bernanke that many of the stimulative measures the Federal Reserve has taken “are giving us a false sense of security.”

But what about Democrats? The ranking Democrat on the committee, Sen. Bob Casey, merely inquired, in a neutral tone, whether the Federal Reserve was planning to take further action. Bernanke simply replied that the Fed was still contemplating the matter, and a lot depended on whether “there will be enough growth going forward to make material progress on the unemployment rate.” (Fed officials meet on June 19 to discuss their next steps.)

Indeed, the harshest grilling that Bernanke got on the Democratic side was from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont), who was more interested in criticizing the Federal Reserve for various conflicts of interest — 

 


Dovish Fed May Help Stocks Push Up to Multi-Year Highs


Thu, 08/23/2012 - 12:43 | Link to Comment lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Break them all!

Silver!

Gold, Bit-chez!

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 13:10 | Link to Comment A_MacLaren
A_MacLaren's picture

Tyler(s):

Can you create an election year comparision of the same data? 

2008 vs 2012?

Thanks!

Thu, 08/23/2012 - 14:48 | Link to Comment the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

can you put that chart up against gasoline prices? if consumers are losing their comfort zone, it must mean romney is ascending, and once they get the convention out of the way and mitt takes the gloves off, the current caretaker government will fold up. romney is old school, work, savings, no more QE, socialist Fed interventions, and to hell with Europe, probably. mormons aren't much on foreign wars either. (the brits gave him some guff about SLC, can't way to see how he gets back at them, maybe just ignore them and their problems)

obama is the proconsumer candidate. that much seems obvious.

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