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When Will Retail Start Buying Stocks?

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Via Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors,

So when will retail investors start buying stocks?  One of the final legs propping up this rally is the belief that retail investors will finally pile into stocks.  There is hope that all this “money on the sidelines” will find its way into the stock market.  The S&P at 1,350 was supposed to do the trick.  Certainly 1,400 on the S&P was going to be enough to chase retail investors into stocks.  Basically the argument that retail will capitulate and finally invest in stocks is based on the assumption that higher prices increase demand – aka, a Giffen Good.

 

Is it realistic to assume that investors will decide to purchase more of something just because the price has gone up?  They did it in 2000 with internet stocks, that infatuation ended badly.  They did it with housing in the mid 2000’s, which ended even worse.  If anything, Americans have become more focused on buying things on sale and getting things at a bargain.  Why shouldn’t that apply to stocks as much as it applies to anything else?

 

We have hit multi year highs, yet most people seem to shrug it off.  If the retail investor was about to increase their allocation to stocks, do you not think there would be more hype in the media about how well stocks have done?  Expecting “the masses” to buy just because something is already up 20% seems a little silly, if not downright arrogant.  The retail investors are not stupid.  They can also see that the stock market has decoupled from the economy.  While professional investors can easily accept that, retail investors still have some level of conviction that the stock market should reflect economic activity and not just central bank printing and government spending.  Retail investors can see that the U.S.  debt has continued to grow and that in spite of lip service to deficit reduction, we are creating a bigger deficit.  They are nervous about what will happen when finally the spending gets pulled in.  They are also very nervous (as are many professional investors) that they will be the last purchase of stocks before the central banks stop pumping fresh money into the system in their never ending attempt to inflate asset prices.

 

If there is one sector where the upward price movement is sucking in more money it is amongst corporations themselves.  The number and size of buyback announcements seems to be increasing. That makes sense, since if any group has shown an ability to buy high and sell low, it is corporations themselves.  In 2007 and the first half of 2008, companies, including AIG, were buying back their own stock aggressively.  From the second half of 2008 and all of 2009, most companies couldn’t afford to buy back shares and many had to issue.  It is just wrong to expect individuals to be as frivolous with their money as corporations are.

 

I continue to believe that retail is reasonably allocated to equities, under the new allocation model.  The new allocation model takes into account debt before determining what is investible.  Then there is an actual allocation to ultra-safe “rainy day” money.  That “investible” money is then allocated at a much more realistic percentage to equities and fixed income and “other investments”.  A myriad of new investment vehicles have helped make it easier for investors to participate in the fixed income market and other asset classes, helping to ensure that the allocation to those remains higher than it was through the 90’s and the first part of this century.

 

I do not believe stocks are a Giffen good, at least when it comes to retail, so expecting “dumb” money to come in and take out the “smart” money may be just as paradoxical as a Giffen good.

 


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Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:37 | Link to Comment vmromk
vmromk's picture

As soon as the MOTHERFUCKER Bernanke gets the S&P to 1600.

That's when everyone will know it's safe and not a rigged market.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:58 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Yesterday's headline platered all over Reuters and Yahoo was "2nd Quarter Starts Off With Rally" and of course the whole gist was "you better hurry up and BUY NOW before it goes higher..."

I remember the good old days when we sold stocks because they really had some value, not because some mad man with a printing press was forcing savers out of cash and into ponzi stocks... well, it's already game over and even they know it now!

3 years ago as the shit storm was approaching people started waking up to the fact that this will not end well... I declare that it will end in world war at the very least... thanks Ben!!

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:12 | Link to Comment Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Send 1000 bankers to ass pound prison, replace the whores known as congress and the senate, and elect Ron Paul.

Until then FUCK OFF!

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 12:59 | Link to Comment optimator
optimator's picture

prisons are full, set up some sort of work camp for them.  For once in their lives let them physically produce something beneficial to society.  The exercxise and diet will make them healty.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:33 | Link to Comment BidnessMan
BidnessMan's picture

"Stocks have value" has always been part of the paper con game that has finally been exposed. What "value"? A minority shareholder is brushed off as an annoyance - sell your stock if you don't like it. The Gold crowd laments that gold shares are not going up. Well Duh - just more paper that can be created at will. The only value is hoping the greater fool will come along, AND promises will be kept. Ask MF Global customers how that worked out for them.

But it is easy - even the eTrade baby can click on a mouse. Real assets with real value take real effort. The day the con game ends and people stop taking paper and electronic bits for assets with real value is the day the world starts to return to sanity.

So please stop equating stocks to value. Just paper and promises .... And the number of chumps is dwindling.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:43 | Link to Comment mikla
mikla's picture

Agreed.

What the Central Planners misunderstand is that the "retail investor" has *already* capitulated.

Not only is he "gone", but he will never come back.  Ever.

They've lost this generation, and that's A Good Thing(TM), since the "stock-market" is merely a big bucket-of-fraudulent-speculation based on false accounting, false reporting, false earnings, and false future speculative projection.

Quite seriously:  Half of the S&P500 will "go-to-zero", because they are bankrupt, and there is no possible scenario of repairing their books.

The retail investors are the only ones with any sense, although I accept the assertion that in part, the retail investor is "not-buying" because the "cash-on-the-sidelines" does not exist (the retail investor is broke).

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 12:24 | Link to Comment V in PA
V in PA's picture

TPTB don't care that they lost 'this' generation. They were successful at ripping off the baby-boomers, and that was the point all along. Tell them they can retire millionaires with a 401k, and just before they retire, wipe 'em out.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:59 | Link to Comment Short Memories
Short Memories's picture

LOL!

"Safe" does no apply to the retail investors. Herd mentality and seeing their fellow sheep get something for nothing that they don't and they'll be "All In" too. Regardless of the number attached to the S&P

Sadly, "This time is different" only in scale!

Ask an Albanian farmer why he sold his livelihood and bought into ponzis in the late 90's, he probably won't say "because I'm Albanian".

I'm pretty sure if this goes on much longer, that the retail investors will be sucked back in. It'd be nice if it all broke before then and the "mums and dads investors" were saying "glad I bought gold instead!!" <sigh>

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:13 | Link to Comment jcaz
jcaz's picture

Yep-  SO tired of this myth....

Retail NEVER buys the bottom.

The other one I'm sick of is that "people will roll out of fixed income into stocks"

No they won't.  

Never have.  Never will.

If Timmy had ANY clue how retail market dynamics really worked,  he'd actually have some value to the world.

As it is, he can't even figure out his taxes, so there ya go......

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:49 | Link to Comment Short Memories
Short Memories's picture

Agree and disagree,

"Timmy" has no clue about the market so he'll get burned again I agree. But Timmy can add value to the world without knowing about market dynamics!  The problem with Timmy is that he has enough knowledge to be dangerous and not enough to realise that he's out of his depth and the waters have dangerous algos ready to eat him.

I was once like Timmy, I got burned plenty and never knew why. Then I worked for the finance industry for a few years and now I own gold. Actually I add more value to the world now that I'm out of the finance industry than when my efforts were trying to make their systems more robust.

Why blame the sheep when it's the shepherds leading them astray

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:51 | Link to Comment BidnessMan
BidnessMan's picture

Timmy's "oops" on his taxes provides an out for all. If the SecTreas can't figure out his taxes, who can? Well it worked for him anyway.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:23 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Retail is not being invited to this ramp fest because they are not wanted. There really haven't been many propaganda pieces aimed at retail investors (correct me if I'm wrong). The occasional pieces I've seen have mostly looked like real reporting, there is still some of it around. Some reporter noticing retail hasn't returned and doing a minor report that doesn't get much follow up is different than the multichannel sales jobs we see when TPTB want something to happen. Retail would just provide friction for the HFTs and their officially sponsored run-up. I doubt they will ever be invited back in because the aim is to drive volume down ever lower. When you calculate the amont of money inflow required to move an index higher the limit approaches zero as market participation approaches zero. Outsiders are no longer welcome in this captured market.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:25 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I just saw in the New York Times front page article begging retail to come buy stocks!

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:37 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Tomorrow.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:39 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Do you have the faxline for TARP funds ? I thought about applying for a $100 million line to bail out the New Penn Square Bank and invest the proceeds in Stocks though I might do a few gas leases. Is there any chance the Feds will let me have a chance at syndicating these drilling loans to New Continental Illinois ?

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:32 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Discount Window

Discount Officer

Tel: (866) 226-5619
Tel: (212) 720-5394
Fax: (212) 720-5686

Start there I guess.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:44 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea 'retail' wouldnt buy at DOW 10,000 or 11,000 or 12 or 13,000, but the bankrupt and unemployed will surely buy bubble equities hand over fist at 14,000 I'm sure.

Face it Bernank, you 1-sided pumped in free money expecting you'd be able to sell it later because people are so stupid and gulliable....but reality is people are broke, unemployed, bankrupt, and suffering under your non existant inflation.

AND, they dont trust the markets anymore because of all your clownish in your face pumping, they know its all fake. Ya fucked up, man.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:53 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

The criminal syndicate known as Wall Street simply rufuses to accept the truth here...that they have destroyed market credibility, and therefore the market.  Psychopaths are not good at accepting responsibility...and so Average Joe is forcing the issue...by vacating the nonmarket.  

We'll know it is a market again when this fact is finally  "priced in."  My guess is we start that process at about 1275 S&P, and from there subtract the cost of America's impending bankruptcy.  

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:56 | Link to Comment oogs66
oogs66's picture

it is underperforming hedge funds trying to justify 2 and 20 who have been the buyers chasing it up...let them fail miserably

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:46 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

And where does the private Federal Reserve fit in? Just look at who OWNS the FRB-

1) The Rothschild Family - London 2) The Rothschild Family - Berlin 3) The Lazard Brothers - Paris 4) Israel Seiff - Italy 5) Kuhn-Loeb Company - Germany 6) The Warburgs - Amsterdam 7) The Warburgs - Hamburg 8) Lehman Brothers - New York 9) Goldman & Sachs - New York 10) The Rockefeller Family - New York

As you can see, one big happy "family!" SHALOM AND HAPPY PASSOVER PONZI!!!!

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:24 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Exactly Cdad, Wall St is in 'denial' phase. They had a print and pump party while saying 'Hey dont worry, we'll be able to dump it to gulliable retail later, theyre so stupid! For now, its party time fellas!'

They created a fake recovery, while in reality everyone is hurting....Bernanke can say theres no inflation ALL HE WANTS, but reality is food and gas is way more expensive and everyones broke. 

This is 'rock, meet hard place' time.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:34 | Link to Comment SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

Will someome please Tweet "Margin Calls".

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:49 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

SD-1 The US of A is rotting from the inside out... 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:15 | Link to Comment spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

The people are figuring out it's nothing more than a 3 card monte game (= bubble economics). "Look you are winning" and "it's different this time" are not cutting it anymore. Ben is now saying he is going to help the little people win, "see a corner of the card is slightly frayed, you are practically guaranteed to win". Wall Street has a freshly marked deck, but the street is empty. Time to give money to corrupt politicians and force the masses to the table.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:16 | Link to Comment Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

"they dont trust the markets anymore because of all your clownish in your face pumping, they know its all fake.

Ya fucked up, man."

 

Perhaps Ween said it best:

You fucked up
You bitch
You really fucked up
You fucked up
you fuckin' nazi whore
You dicked me over
But now you'll pay
You fucked up
Aaaahhh

ween- You fucked Up - YouTube/2min

*Not suitable for children over the age of 55*

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:32 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

+1

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:00 | Link to Comment rayduh4life
rayduh4life's picture

You can shear a sheep and keep getting wool, skin 'em and you're done.

No return to reality until some of the azzhats get the perp walk.  (Do any of you expect they would do "hard" time?)  not likely.

 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:39 | Link to Comment McUSA
McUSA's picture

Seems like for the last six years, Wall Street has baited the average retail investor into the market only to swiftly sell the market off, leaving the retail investor rightly skeptical and unwilling to give away their money again and again!!

 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:40 | Link to Comment MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

When Will Retail Start Buying Stocks?

 

When the price of these companies reflect reality rather than the bullshit propoganda values they now have!

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:43 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Also, Wall St may be fooling TV news anchors into euphoria, but Main St no longer trusts the stock markets. They went too far in their vapor ramps to save their precious little equities and now anyone can see its a rigged game.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 12:56 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I agree that bailing out Wall Street with free money while sticking ma and pa kettle with a "happy 20% debt rate, no job, a worthless house and higher prices" is a problem. The retail investor is the the last thing you want in equities however.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:05 | Link to Comment jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

I would like to point out that insiders are selling like mad.

Please see TOLL BROS as an example. They sell more stock than the company "earns" for its shareholders! NOW THAT IS A PONZI!!

BTW- the CEO is celebrating his Passover Ponzi this weekend with an extra $30 MILLION in cash!! WOOHOO!!

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 12:19 | Link to Comment oogs66
oogs66's picture

Insiders selling like mad while they start buy back programs at the company level - talk about theft

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:09 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

True price discovery (an important function of a healthy market) has not been allowed for 30+ years and continues to get worse as banks continue remove any remaining regulations and/or barriers to "mark to fantasy" accounting.

 

Let me say that again, what we have now is unregulated "mark to fantasy" accounting for the "right" people and all government entities.  Everyone else, eat your peas and pay your taxes.

 

 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:41 | Link to Comment CryingBear
CryingBear's picture

AAPL

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:53 | Link to Comment DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

the APPL effect will ruin retailers once that trade turns. iBurn.

45M Americans on foodstamps. US Real Disposable Income Per Capita hasn't gone up in 30 month.  Retail cannot afford to be burned by the markets. again.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:10 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

+1 for the "iburn" comment.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 12:50 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

yup! iBurn is going to be the shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit

+1

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:42 | Link to Comment toady
toady's picture

I believe the general public is finally caught on....

They ran up the stock market and stole all my grandma's money in 87, They ran up the market and stole all my mother's money in 08, I'll be damned if they're gonna run up the market and steal all my money.

I think more than a few people have learned this lesson like I have!

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:46 | Link to Comment dash8flyer
dash8flyer's picture

Hate to admit it but the CNBC and media propaganda is so good that when we surpass the 2007 highs, John Q will reenter the market just in time to see the hammer fall on him!

 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:47 | Link to Comment BrokeDayTrader
BrokeDayTrader's picture

WTF???

AAPL the greatest cult stock I've ever seen, $585 billion mkt cap is totally absurd

Hurry up and crash that pig!

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:50 | Link to Comment Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

China will take them when the time is right.  Stockholders are just chasing pennies in front of a big red steamroller.  Otherwise known as fools.

 

Now would be an excellent time to sell.  Never would be an excellent time to buy.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:02 | Link to Comment DIEKeynesianEco...
DIEKeynesianEconomics's picture

$587 billion now. The crash is coming alright. Just think of how much people actually NEED apple products. Some business people may need Ipads but a laptop works just as well. As a matter of fact, trading software doesn't work on macs. POS macs

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:11 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

for those of us holding since 1989, the correct term is "cash that pig in."  Done and done.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:47 | Link to Comment kralizec
kralizec's picture

No unicorn farts in my portfolio, thank you very much.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:48 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Case in point this mornings open, futures down but ramped into the open to comfortably green as usual. People arent this stupid, they know its fake and in no mood to gamble on rigged stocks. Theyve got inflated food and gas to worry about paying for.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:54 | Link to Comment scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Speaking of gas, UGA is one pretty little break out chart.. reminds me of AAPL.

GO BEN GO!!

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:49 | Link to Comment Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

 

 

Anyone looking to buy and hold needs to understand that China will be OUT of the US company hosting business soon.

www.nytimes.com/2012/04/03/world/asia/chinese-insider-offers-rare-glimps...

Also, US corruption is what is destroying the stock market as well as our cherished values and way of life.

Psychopathocracy.  Forget paper assets while the Xanax-fueled nutjobs are in charge.  This is a human crisis, not a financial crisis.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:52 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Its lunatics running the asylum! These clowns actually believed they could pull the rug out of markets in 08, crash everyone out and create a panic and then run stocks back up and pass off the pump, AGAIN? They staged a market bubble and no one showed up and no ones going to show up either! I just wonder how long till reality sets in. I believe its soon, because returns are diminishing very rapidly now.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:49 | Link to Comment gjp
gjp's picture

I posted this before, but why does Wall Street need retail 'dumb money' when it owns the public treasury?  No need to twist and push retail in when they can just arrange for multi-trillion bailouts whenever needed.  So much easier and more civilized.  No need to get their hands dirty with the great unwashed.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:56 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

AH great point...theres nothing actually IN the 'Treasury' so their idea was to ramp stocks and then rape retail and take all their money 1 more time. 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:02 | Link to Comment gjp
gjp's picture

Nothing real in the treasury, maybe, but they can still print / borrow.  The theft is by dilution, not by forcing anyone to buy.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:14 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

There you go, regulatory and representitive capture, plain and simple.  The new U.S. mantra -"For the financial sector and banks, by the financial sector and banks."  Nothing short of a civil war resets this mess.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:17 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

You dont see what Im saying, its a 1-sided equation...'print, borrow' is ONLY real if they can get someone to pass it off to, thats not happening here and its not going to. What do they imagine, 'retail' is sitting on trillions of dollars just waiting for stocks to get higher and then pile in? Insane lunatics. 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:58 | Link to Comment oogs66
oogs66's picture

good one, but better is why does wall street need dumb money when it has enough of its own dumb money? 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:18 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Sure! They have all the free money they want, so what do they need 'retails' money for?

They know its all worthless fake money theyre playing with, and are now desperate to sell it off or else theyre the bagholders.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:49 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Bernanke's next announced round of QE has to be massive. About a double of previous QEs.

Taking more and more QE to stimulate until the patient dies.

Deficits should continue much higher than expected. We already are hitting the debt ceiling again.

Once US dollars are no longer taken is when the fun for Bernanke and the Fed begins.

 

 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:51 | Link to Comment Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

When Will Retail Start Buying Stocks?

Right before I bail...

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:50 | Link to Comment AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

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A Wells Fargo Busines

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and another Wells Fargo Business

Wells Fargo & Co., which bought Wachovia in 2008, has admitted in court that its unit failed to monitor and report suspected money laundering by narcotics traffickers -- including the cash used to buy four planes that shipped a total of 22 tons of cocaine.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-29/banks-financing-mexico-s-drug-c...

 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:51 | Link to Comment DIEKeynesianEco...
DIEKeynesianEconomics's picture

This is unrelated but I figured someone here might know. How many USD does it take to move EURUSD 1 pip?

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:54 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Depends on whose holding the manipulation reigns.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:10 | Link to Comment DIEKeynesianEco...
DIEKeynesianEconomics's picture

JPM, Goldman, take your pick.

 

Today I got a news notification while about a JPM Banker with fine for market abuse, wow I never woulda thunk it, why is that even news?

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:51 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

You can't make this charade up ...

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:52 | Link to Comment Commander Cody
Commander Cody's picture

Uh, when hell freezes over?

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:53 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Maybe the pundits have forgotten that people need to have available funds to invest.  They can fake the unemployment, inflation and GDP numbers, but it doesn't mean that the masses have actual money in their pockets.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:17 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

There you go, real income and wages do matter, imagine that.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:53 | Link to Comment ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

The 1%'ers believe their own horse manure.  They should take a few lessons from Marie Antoinette.

Most folks actually understand that there is no Easter Bunny and that Washington and Wall Street are in cahoots.

Trickle down isn't working because it is not trickling down.  The bonuses, fraud and outright theft is gobbling it all up.

Neither a Republican nor Democrat be.

 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:53 | Link to Comment BliptoP3
BliptoP3's picture

one correction I would make to this article: change " The retail investors are not stupid." to " The retail investors, with any money left, are not stupid."  I don't think the people who kept their money out in 2008 are suddenly going to go stupid and dump money into this slow moving train-wreck of a market.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:53 | Link to Comment Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

Never.....at least for this retail investor. I'd rather go to Vegas and gamble my money away. At least I could see some strippers and get a lap dance or two whilst getting fleeced.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:54 | Link to Comment GCT
GCT's picture

I will continue to invest in commodities and gold.  I may be looking at this wrongly but not being a professional investor and just a working smuck I see the market as topping out.  I have not made any money in the stock market but the one thing I want to avoid is losing bigtime right now.  I am of the age Iwill be retiring next year.

I have been out since this time last year.  Some of you are pro's and can navigate and make money during this period.  I know, I know, I missed this rally but I have done well in other areas.  Currently I am scared to even put one dollar in the stock market when it is this high.

I do have a serious question for the investors amongst you out there.  Could any of you recommend an online investment company like E trade and such for an individual to use? I am looking for a online investment stock trading company to use.  I might as well put my wife's investing skills to work.  The problem we are having is there are so many companies out there. 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:55 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So they believe 'retail' is just sitting on tons of money, waiting for stocks to get higher so they can rush in and buy? Seriously, if thats what these people actually believe is going on, theyre totaly insane.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:55 | Link to Comment moonman
moonman's picture

I will reenter the market when:

Pigs fly

Unicorns shit skittles

I win Megamillions

Jim Cramer is struck down by the hand of god

Pimm Fox has a fucking cardiac on air cause he is so excited

I can't afford the gas to drive to Atlantic City to gamble it away.

There are no more hookers or blow available.

Bernanke stops fucking with it

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:14 | Link to Comment dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

"Bernanke stops fucking with it"

If that, and only that happened, I would consider putting a little in... after the inevitable collapse happened.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:56 | Link to Comment asteroids
asteroids's picture

Retail will invest when they have the extra cash and the stomach for risk. That's not going to happen for a long long time. This is one of the unintended consequences that folks periodically talk about.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:57 | Link to Comment Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

i think people finally understand the meaning of buy low and sell high

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 09:58 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

Speaking only personally, I am much more distrustful of earnings than the markets themselves. Concurrent manipulations of earnings and markets should represent a valid trust issue for investors. You are not looking at your grandfather's version of P-E ratios.....not even close.  

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:03 | Link to Comment orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

You have to think too...RISK goes up as the market goes up....down and down. It moves in tandem with the market. One logically would think of the risk of a "falling knife" but really it's risk is getting lower.

 

ACCOUNTABILITY...NONE....NONE! That is what ails these markets....much like Grant said in his response to the Fed....NO ACCOUNTABILITY....SHIT...I'LL JUMP OFF THAT BRIDGE IF IT WERE YOUR LIFE I WAS RISKING....FUCK YA....Why not?

 

Instill some accountability where corzine loses everything and has to go back to Taylorville. The fact that he keeps his shit is beyond me.....hit em where it hurts or else they are just fucking with your money and no consequences.....

 

simple.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 12:28 | Link to Comment 1C3-N1N3
1C3-N1N3's picture

Taylorville, IL -- noted for Corzine and neuroblastoma

I've seen the place and it's miserable.

If he doesn't die in prison, then he can die penniless in Taylorville.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:09 | Link to Comment Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Retail has diminishing cash available for investment, at the same time stock prices are heading into the stratoshpere.

In whose warped dream is this a good combination for retail entry into the "stock Market"?

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:11 | Link to Comment Paul Atreides
Paul Atreides's picture

The retail sector is now awake.

Selective filtering of media has been going on for centuries. With the inception of the internet and no active filtering control humanity is getting smart to the fraudulent games of Wall St. We are getting wise to the fact we are debt slaves and continually distracted by war, propaganda and the hegalian dilect. TPTB are now actively trying to stop this with filter bubbles and internet control acts like PIPA, ACTA and SOPA but it is too late, we are winning the information war with chart porn and factual analysis.

Next step...project mayhem.

 

 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:11 | Link to Comment michigan independant
michigan independant's picture

As long as they say he is one of them gloom and doom guys. These are the educated and there is no hope for them. Get the hell out of all paper over the next few years if we have that long with these thugs in charge above. Assets are being cleaved apart to avert exposure zones. Fiat unlimited behind the utopian dam and the conduit to lavish the order of operation to the connected will not stop. Bagholders will burn with the rest of these soulless horde. 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:13 | Link to Comment Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture

Two groups will buy at this high level:

1. suckers;

2. institutions buying with OPM to generate commissions.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:22 | Link to Comment ObungaBoy
ObungaBoy's picture

Of course Wall Street  are stupid – if they weren’t they wouldn’t be where they are now

shallow, usurers’  middle east logic and mentality -  that is all about Wall Street

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:26 | Link to Comment TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

It must be really balls busting to sit on AAPL(FED induced) gains and have no one to sell to!:)))

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:28 | Link to Comment Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

I'll buy when the market has a Groupon 50% off sale.  Kinda like last time.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:39 | Link to Comment Dawg37
Dawg37's picture

I am "buying" all right - Cash (stable value), Gold (IAU) and inverse equities (SMDD/SRY/EEU/EPV/FXP).  The rest is invested in non perishable food, guns/ammo, batteries, medical supplies, etc.  The global economy is just limping along despite trillions in leveraged stimulus while profit margins are at all time highs (and over due for some serious mean reversion).  The "Smart" institutional money can have this phantom "rally". I'm not biting.   

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:40 | Link to Comment Watson
Watson's picture

>>>
Expecting “the masses” to buy just because something is already up 20% seems a little silly...
<<<

Silly it may be, but retail does this over and over again (and not just in stocks). This time is _not_ different. And this is why I, personally, do not think any crash will originate from the stock market.

IMHO the thing to go will be US govvies...

Watson

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:40 | Link to Comment Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture
Home Prices Seen Dropping 10% in U.S. (Bloomberg)

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-03/home-prices-seen-dropping-10-in...

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:50 | Link to Comment CaptainTripps
CaptainTripps's picture

ridiculous to keep on thinking retail are MUPPETS..if that is your only argument to remain long..you are insane

 

 

pro's can crash this market down 50% if they want. lots of FAKE liquidity . it works both ways folks

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 10:51 | Link to Comment CaptainTripps
CaptainTripps's picture

if the economy is so great, why are rates at 0 and 1000s of goverment subisidies and training wheels still on the economy???

 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:21 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Primary Dealers stuffed with BAC and eath other shares have become like the bus in the movie Speed with Keany Reeves and Sandra Bullock. If they don't keep speeding up, the bus will explode.

Same with Primary Dealers, if they don't keep buying the stock farce market will collapse 2000 dow points in one day since there are no suckers.

If you remember, in the movie, the bus exploded. No other options are available.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:02 | Link to Comment the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

the stock market faces a huge demographic shift, as boomers who have lost half their savings now contemplate what to do with their half empty glass. to that end Bernanke is pedalling as fast as he can to restore confidence in stocks (the Fed has yet one more mandate which is price stability remember?) retail investors looking at 60 should be worried about the half empty glass and move into bonds. this is the traditional almanac answer, brokers used to follow. once you retire you move your investments into bonds. honestly the Fed and the USG are trying to impoverish the largest group (and holding a great deal of wealth) just while they approach their golden years, this is not only bad advice, its catastrophic (Obama is pedalling as fast as he can to restore faith that you may starve and freeze in your cardboard shack but at least you'll have free healthcare for those frostbitten toes) these guys are the enemy of the largest demographic group in america, running on one part corporate greed, and other on pie in the sky progressive policies.

the younger generation is already up to their eyes in student debt, (but BB will probably take a load of that onto his already bloated balance sheet) this is one reason why judges will give stock holders rights over bondholders, (you are actually at more risk with these guys driving the ship), as we saw in Argentina (a test run) stockholders can be made whole but bondholders eat poop, and poor bondholders at that. you want to know why Italy is in trouble?

this is why i support someone like Bill Gross for Fed chief, while not a bond vigilante per se he knows the story. he is not a stock man. people will spit when they say the word, stocks, just wait a few years. but it won't be for official government meddling. hopefully someone like BG will take over, and the new investor will know bonds the way he used to know stocks. in the meantime there is a world of pain out there for those boomers who will see their pension bennies disappear as well.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:05 | Link to Comment overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

please do not forget the 401ks pump money into stocks every month most plans allow only stock and bond mut funds..they buy each month. add Fed and state employee and fed employee pension plans and you can see that in a low volume market the trend will be up UP. retail could blow away as long as BEN and TIM have mut funds and the PPT they are winning. I will not play with them but I do not think any major market drop will occur with out people going to jail. and we know corzine and those like him are bullet proof.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:06 | Link to Comment rabbitusvomitus
rabbitusvomitus's picture

The market is so great that month after month, quarter after quarter volume of shares trading has consistently gone lower and lower...that's conviction for ya! Come on suckers, err, people, buy some damn stocks already so us big boys can sell in may (at a big profit) and go away to the Hampton's for the summer....

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:11 | Link to Comment CuriousPasserby
CuriousPasserby's picture

I'm seeing people roll over their IRAs into self-directed accounts and then buying Florida houses for cash. Banks are taking 30¢ to 50¢ on the dollar so lots of houses are going for $30,000 to $70,000.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:21 | Link to Comment toros
toros's picture

March inflows were $13.12 billion 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/march-etf-flows-p-500-201625612.html

 

 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:22 | Link to Comment TwoJacks
TwoJacks's picture

joe retial needs to hold that line.  if he would only realize the potential, that the 1%ers will have to sell to each other on the way down and therefore the lion's share of the next punishing decline will mostly (only) hit the 1%ers, joe retail wins.  I'm rooting for you joe. hang in there, ignore the price

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:27 | Link to Comment toros
Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:30 | Link to Comment SubjectivObject
SubjectivObject's picture

Sorry, children, but babyboom wants nothing more than to retire with as few complications as possible, not the least of which would be any requisite trust of the bankster class and their subordinate political and regulatory under classes.

Comfortably Numb is not coming back; the paradigm shift of age coincides with the paradigm shift of trust and criminality.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:33 | Link to Comment Obnoxio
Obnoxio's picture

The world economy is run by and for corporations. Money is almost free for those that qualify like large insolvent banks and Multi-Nationals with solid balance sheets. The 2008 melt down happened when credit markets froze and stocks were dumped to raise capital/liquidity. The Central Banks stepped in and took control of markets. Money printing will sustain Stock prices in nominal terms. For the S&P to crash I believe credit would need to be cut off from Banks, corporations and margin accounts. Not sure this will happen under the current regime. There could be an intentional downward correction to help get QE3 launched.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 11:56 | Link to Comment rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

"If there is one sector where the upward price movement is sucking in more money it is amongst corporations themselves.  The number and size of buyback announcements seems to be increasing. That makes sense, since....

 

it makes the options they have issued to themselves more valuable.

 

There, that fixes that statement.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 12:26 | Link to Comment oogs66
oogs66's picture

I think corporations are the real muppets and manipulators

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 12:50 | Link to Comment shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

I hear the steel drums tuning up for the Bernanke Apocalypso Festival.

I see a rhumba line with Benny, Timmy, Lloyd, Jaime et al.

 

"Print, print, print Bernanke...Print de bottom line

Oh, oh, oh Bernake...Print it all de time

Hey, hey, hey Bernanke...Print it til day cry

Oh, oh, oh Bernake...Print until day die."

 

One for William banzai7 ?

 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 13:18 | Link to Comment yawara
yawara's picture

fool me once... your shame;
fool me twice... my shame.
smart money stays under the mattress.
beware of lying liars.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 13:29 | Link to Comment the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

The Fed is like AFA foods, one day they are declaring their product save, blaming the media for portraying them unfavorably, and insisting they are just doing what they have always done, to keep our money supply safe. Then the next day Fed, known the money processing industry, which puts the hammer between the eyes of workers and widows and orphans, to keep the fat cats on the top floor smoking cigars. When they declare bankruptcy you know who is on the hook, (when they make profits you know who gets them)  if the Fed goes Ch.11? Don't let these guys dump their pink slime money onto the money supply. Firewall the Fed from UST backing, they are not a GSE...

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 13:32 | Link to Comment the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

oh and don't eat this stuff, every dollar you hold in your pocket represents a share of their debt. a smart man would burn his money and walk naked through the street to make his point.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 14:21 | Link to Comment bobbydelgreco
bobbydelgreco's picture

there comes a time when the sucker doesn't come back i think this is that time that means  the smart money is alone on one side of the boat and when it leaves and it will....1937 look it up

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 16:37 | Link to Comment ZeroPoint
ZeroPoint's picture

Seriously? Retail investors are flat ass broke, been forced out of their McMansions one way or another, and on food stamps. You think they have spare Bernanke fun kredits to lose?

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