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Where Are The Emerging Market Risk Bombs?

Tyler Durden's picture


As European bank deleveraging continues, Middle East tensions rise, and oil prices (Brent and Crude alike) oscillate from headline to headline, we thought it intriguing that the entities with net notional outstandings in CDS markets at or near their largest in history are China (and Chinese banks), LatAm Oil companies, Abu Dhabi, and Israel. Quite a crop of potential risk bombs that at least credit traders appear to demand protection on more than others.

Via JPMorgan's CDS Outstanding Notional report,

poeak net notionals highlighted in red ovals...


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Wed, 01/25/2012 - 13:21 | 2096630 Irish66
Irish66's picture

OT..did I miss the fed statement @12:15

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 13:27 | 2096652 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

that one yes. the one due at 12:30, not yet

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 13:28 | 2096656 Irish66
Irish66's picture

thank you, rentadrone tv jumps all over the place

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 13:23 | 2096641 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

Risk bombs....real bombs are cheaper and solve many more problems....

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 13:25 | 2096648 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

Embassy official: French president’s son hospitalized with food poisoning in Ukraine

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 13:28 | 2096657 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

Better the bad crab than a radioactive martini...

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 13:29 | 2096660 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Please keep us updated on anyone else who might have diarrhea.  This is huge news.  Thanks.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 13:33 | 2096666 nyse
nyse's picture


Wed, 01/25/2012 - 13:56 | 2096774 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture


Update for Quinvarius:

Quinvarius is having a smartASSitis, with severe brain cell dysfunction assholism (a condition in which a stupid individual is a chronic asshole and feels that he/she cannot stop), secondary to stupendous shove-it-up-your-ass diarrhea, complicated by severe electrolyte imbalance imbecilisis and moronitis dehydration.

P.S. No link yet, but it is coming.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 13:46 | 2096737 falak pema
falak pema's picture

that is very bad for the rap business, they were counting on him to sell french music to Putin for Sochi winter Olympics in 2014. "Only you can sell that beat to Putin's lame duck games" said the french ambassador to son of Soky; like that other french music group that is doing O'bammy's signature tune for 2012 election campaign. What's with it, these french music groups are emulating the Artist of golden globes. Will it change the trade balance to green? Only if Sarkozy stops taking his wife to party on each official trip. She is a hot lady with the purse, all paid by tax payer, ofcourse. At a billion euros per queenly sigh when she sees a diamond eye in Dubai, we shall all be singing in Arab; Qatari lullabies. 

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 13:39 | 2096704 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

LatAm Oil companies?

Chavez Default Swaps?

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 18:29 | 2097981 Lux Fiat
Lux Fiat's picture

Brazil is not that far behind re respect for property rights.  Gov't keeps using PBR as a piggy bank at the expense of shareholders.  Interesting to see that more are recognizing it.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 13:42 | 2096721 polak potrafi
polak potrafi's picture

poprosic o pomoc


Please, is anybody able to explain the dramatic jump in the net notional outstanding on CDS for various type of MBS that is being reported for the second week already by the DTCC?

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 13:44 | 2096731 XenOrbitalEnginE
XenOrbitalEnginE's picture

Oh boy, Poland is really not sucking right now!


Zloty plunging time!

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 15:02 | 2097064 polak potrafi
polak potrafi's picture


I guess

this does not explain

why the net notional on RMBS has jumped from about 5.5 bln $ to about 32 bln $ in a week?

Help. Anybody?

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 13:46 | 2096735 youngman
youngman's picture

well we have to watch something...the bond "market" was just cemented in for three years..and that is more like 20 years.....

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 14:48 | 2097001 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

The markets have turned into one giant game of Mine Sweeper.

Wed, 01/25/2012 - 18:35 | 2097994 Lux Fiat
Lux Fiat's picture


It would be more informative to know what the time frame is for the CDS data.  Was the Petrobras move over 1 wk, 4 wks, 1 year, etc?  If 1 -4 wks, then it is certainly noteworthy.  If 1 yr, well....

Also, could the jumps be due to some investors taking large positions in some of these companies/countries, and still under the impression [in the wake of ISDA's October Greek CDS "no default" call] that they can be meaningfully hedged?

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