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Where Do We Go From Here?

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/21/2012 14:35 -0400

We present our favorite chart of 2012 (now freshly updated and with that new, NINJA subprime-loan subsidized, car smell) without any further commentary.

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Sat, 04/21/2012 - 14:37 | 2363837 JeremyWS

wow just wow.

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 14:37 | 2363839 SilverTree

GnR

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 14:41 | 2363844 francis_sawyer

"Where do we go from here?"

~~~

Can't say... because I'm still looking 4 my Blue Jean baby queen...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-r7SfQdYx9w

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 15:45 | 2363917 Randall Cabot

Me neither...I'm still looking for Sleepy Jean The Homecoming Queen...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8urgvC0TR8&feature=results_video&playnext=1&list=PL078139698653E51E

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 16:00 | 2363926 JW n FL

Kill'em ALL!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=euDqKM36GoM

and...

(Killing in the name of)

and now you do what they told ya!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNzIKoAy2pk

Now you're under control!

True Nature!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgp1czGb4U8

How You treat the weak is... YOUR TRUE NATURE CALLING!!

Get out there and Smash the POOR!! Let Wall Street Rob the World Blind!

it is your true nature.

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 00:09 | 2364349 12ToothAssassin

Kill the Poor

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgpa7wEAz7I

Dead Kennedys

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 08:35 | 2364545 EnglishMajor

Hey, Poor, hey, poor, you don't have to be poor anymore. Jesus is here!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=osQMG9f0HC0

Mon, 04/23/2012 - 01:17 | 2366024 Harlequin001

We're just doing sooo much better this year aren't we?

Gosh, doesn't it make you feel gooood...

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 08:55 | 2364567 hamurobby

Police truck!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GMH-q3xwqt8

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 16:19 | 2363949 Black Forest

Sometimes they come back

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CSYLKss1Vm8

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 20:00 | 2364172 I am more equal...

Like the instructions on the shampoo bottle, wash, rinse, repeat.

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 03:26 | 2364414 PersonalRespons...

I can't wait (but have to) to see if this comes true. If so then...

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 14:51 | 2363855 LawsofPhysics

The "new improved" business cycle. Technicals and the Laws of Nature no longer matter, only the Fed does.

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 14:52 | 2363857 resurger

this time is different

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 15:05 | 2363874 skunzie

This time will be different; we have an election coming in November. Will the Zombies continue to rule, or will the Moonbats take over? Stay tuned boys and girls!

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 15:06 | 2363877 GeneMarchbanks

It'll be drastically different by summer. Summers gonna hurt you...

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 15:17 | 2363885 SV

Tyler - Any chance on getting an updated debt ceiling breach date estimate from current TIC data, etc? It will help fill in the rest of the graph.

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 15:18 | 2363887 Sudden Debt

2011= history!
Retail sales will go up thanks to inflation... Untill it won't... Because wages don't rise... But it will be different this time! A raise for everybody!

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 03:22 | 2364412 Mike in GA

Gasoline sales down 56 weeks in a row...6.8% by Mastercard compiled statistics. I don't know if or how they do inflation adjusting but this lone statistic cannot be spun as growth. Except, of course, in DC and possibly NY.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/17/us-usa-gasoline-demand-idUSBRE83G17U20120417

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 15:31 | 2363901 theTribster

It won't follow the same trajectory in the 2nd half as last year because of the temporary influx of cash from the fleeing of Europe and too a lesser extent Japan. Should push up equities and the dollar while pushing down precious metals. This will last until after the election if they can string it out that long but I'm not sure they'll be able to, Europe is imploding and it really can't be postponed much longer.

Since everything is now spring loaded to move opposite the manipulation we'll get to see some really interesting moves across all the markets as everything unwinds due to loss of confidence. At that point the Fed and other CBs will be rendered impotent, where even printing will have a negative effect.

The big question is how long can they postpone the inevitable here in the US or in Europe and Japan? Can they continue to paper over the problems until November? That's 7 months away, I don't see it happening, maybe they can keep things afloat until June.

If things explode/implode prior to the Republican convention will that have an impact on Ron Paul and the nomination? If not will it cause him to consider running for Prez as a third party candidate? Wow, wouldn't the boys in DC shit themselves, only outright rigging would stop him from winning. That's why its good for Ron to hang in there, once we have the crises people's perspective will change on Obama and Mittens.

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 15:49 | 2363924 LawsofPhysics

If PMs are getting "cheaper", at least for a bit, why wouldn't fiat fleeing Europe go there? I know one person in France doing exactly this. Funny thing is, he has been buying the dollar when the Euro was strong, and is now using dollars to aquire more PMs. He has a company and will now be his own bank to keep operations running. Yes, it turns out, if you have enough gold you can be your own bank. Smart guy.

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 20:19 | 2364189 hedgeless_horseman

"Yes, it turns out, if you have enough gold you can be your own bank."

What is the word for disintermediation in French?

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 16:48 | 2363993 sabra1

even if Ron Paul wins, what are you gonna do about congress? only if you "clean house" would things change!

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 22:23 | 2364296 StychoKiller

A well-exercised Veto pen can put an end to a lot of BS...

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 18:40 | 2364090 dizzyfingers

Tribster:

"...only outright rigging would stop him from winning."

Outright rigging has been ne peut pas être arrêté since about 1990. If it looks like he "might win" he's probably dead. TPTB won't allow recovery or perhaps even allow another presidency. Black helos flying around; martial law probably imminent IN ORDER TO SKIP AN ELECTION; FEMA camps hiring federal prisoners to supervise those locked up by FEMA (Civilian Inmate Labor Program - Army Regulation 210—35 ); US can be turned into globalists' second fully-e-banking system at the touch of a button... How can anyone think an election could solve anything when we're slipping into totalitarianism...

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 15:46 | 2363918 earleflorida

if it ain't broken,... keep on failing

go bamma

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 20:16 | 2364188 A Nanny Moose

Gobama

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 15:48 | 2363921 l1b3rty

anti gravity markets!

http://silvervigilante.com

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 16:08 | 2363938 trebuchet

The little ghosts in my machine say cet par, balance of probs (+10%) is to the upside a bit more but as we all know a day is a lot of trading milliseconds in a market......

excluding any of the following that upside swing could pick up momentum especially backed by long overdue real spending and investment which could make things fly in 2012 BUT NONE OF THAT BEING PRICED INTO EXPECTATIONS FOR THE MOMENT yet i think its happening.

But serious headwinds are:

.. that 2011 dip was fukushima, maybe we have a nuclear issue in May via iran to match, if the may talks dont solve anything, israel publicly on standby for a fly-over, fully rehearsed up to date drills in place. estimated drop? 3-4 times the 2010 dip ( 1 for nuclear, 2 for oil, 3 for mid-east, 4 coz when it tips to the downside there will be no stopping it)

.. im not as bearish as most re europe, largely coz its semi-backstopped, or will get helped with euro depreciation

..us deficit is not as big an issue with gdp reported growth ticking up, warm weather effects etc filtering through, green shoots, and so on

..if money starts actually trickling out of the financial system into the real economy then we have the inflation thing and all bets are off coz its regime change, whack-a-mole time so PMs (and PM stock) positive but that index gets a bumpy ride.

... plus a hundred other lesser reasons for it to go downside,

when/if it pops to the upside above my mean reversion measure, then im bearish, right now its just crossed over with some wind in its back... so... im just pulling back, easing off with selected net long exposure to some stocks (mainly dirt cheap PM miners)

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 16:16 | 2363945 DavidC

I've commented elsewhere about whether the impending Facebook IPO will keep the market up a bit longer, and also the fact that the Dow/S&P are still oversold on a daily basis (MACD and Stochastics).

What's interesting is that, looking at the charts at the point they sold off last year, the overall pattern looked very similar AND they were oversold. Scary.

DavidC

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 16:56 | 2364006 trebuchet

Are you saying macd/stochastics showing dow and s&P oversold now?

I must be looking at wrong numbers. intraday the volatiltiy makes that happen, but not on 1day/50dma views unless im a complete muppet and cant read

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 16:19 | 2363947 Black Forest

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 18:57 | 2364110 UP Forester

Good point. Does the zero go before, or after?

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 18:05 | 2364064 Johnk

Be careful being short...

During Weimar Inflation "Investors were extremely slow to grasp that stocks were poles apart from fixed obligations like bonds, quite wrongly thinking that if bonds were worthless stocks must be too."

"In 1973, Americans were actually deepening their commitment to money wealth by a tendency to invest more heavily in bonds and debt obligations as a result of severe stock market losses of recent years." History rhymes.

above from Jens O. Parsson, Dying of Money

http://esocap.com/uploads/files/Dying%20of%20Money.pdf

I'm only talking about nominal stock prices.

In January 1973 official CPI was 3.6% (today it's supposedly 2.6%, but John Williams and I disagree....).

Anyway, just 1 1/2 years later CPI was 11.5%.

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 22:41 | 2364307 GMadScientist

What kind of nimrod would want a certificate for confetti?

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 18:19 | 2364078 kill switch

If nothing more it's funny!!

By JHK
on April 2, 2012 9:29 AM

In the drunken, drug-crazed twilight of its run as Leader of the Free World, America's collective imagination swerves from one breakdown lane to the other while the highway patrol throws a donuts-and-porn party down at headquarters and the news media searches the gutter on hands-and-knees looking for the spot where it dropped its brains. The other day, Larry Kudlow, the king popinjay at CNBC, told viewers that the US has over a trillion barrels of oil waiting to be drill-drill-drilled on our way to "energy independence." This is the kind of malarkey that America thrives on these days, the way yeasts thrive on sugary mash. It's a complete falsehood, of course, but the working dead over at The New York Times said substantially the same thing in a front-page story the week before. The Timespersons have only one source for their stories: Daniel Yergin, chief public relations pimp for the oil industry, because he makes it so easy for them by providing all the information they will ever need. The oil and gas companies would like to direct the fire-hose of loose and easy money out there into their stock prices - building to the magic moment when, Mozillo-like, the executives can dump shares, cut, and run for the far hills where no SEC officer or DOJ attorney will ever think to look. This is just another racket in an all-rackets society. The fantasy of energy independence therefore takes shape as a "settled matter" as we lurch toward elections. The arch-moron Mitt Romney will inveigh against Obama for holding the oil dogs back while Obama pretends to spank the oil companies for gouging the public on that alleged Niagara flow of new oil. None of them understands the true situation, which is that the USA is enjoying one last gulp of a very expensive oil cocktail with the last few dollars it can prestidigitate out of the central bank's magic box, and then there is no more even notional surplus wealth to blow on more drinks. And it isn't even much of a gulp. US production of "all liquids" - which includes methane gas drippings, ethanol, etc - went from 7.2 million barrels a day in 2004 to about 7.7 in 2011. We use about 19 million barrels a day, down about a million from peak US consumption before the financial crash of 2008. The reason it's down: Americans are going broke, one household and one small business at a time. Shale oil production is approaching half a million barrels a day. That's about 45 minutes of daily go-power. It might go up to an hour-and-a-half before production of shale oil permanently crashes on the combination of fast-depleting wells and a lack of capital to keep drilling new ones at $8 million per well. The story for shale gas is similar, except that initial production was so exorbitant that it drove the price down to nearly nothing (the $2 range), and the bust from that Ponzi will be even more spectacular than the shale oil. Everyone from Mr. Obama to the chiselers who run Citigroup maintain that there is a one hundred year supply of gas in the USA. They are going to be very disappointed. The public, on the other hand, will not even remember what they said as they burn down the cornfields in anguish. I met a guy at the pumps last week who was filling up a pickup truck at least twice the size of mine a few yards away. I asked him how things were going fuel-wise with that monster Ram-Charger he was feeding. At more than $100 a fill-up, it was killing him he said. His line-of-work required him to drive all over the county incessantly. His reality was a bit different from the oil company execs promising limitless horizons of oil to CNBC-watching retirees desperate for some "yield" on investment in the face of ZIRP bond rates. The price of oil (and gasoline) may well crash again, but when it does, there will be fewer business reasons for anyone to drive around the county all the live-long day, and that guy's Ram-Charger could fall into the hands of the re-po goon squad. He may never be able to get another one, either. No more money for truck loans. Capital shortage. Sorry. This oil and gas thing cuts so many ways that the public will feel like it is gargling Gillette blue blades. Just add up the total tonnage of steel necessary to keep this Ponzi going and you would reach a discouraging conclusion: this thing has nowhere to go but swift and implacable contraction. The ultimate destination of "energy independence" will be a nation with no cars and trucks to run. We'll get there, you'll see. But that is speaking the unthinkable.

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 05:07 | 2364444 Laura S.

This almost apocalyptic comment is true. Embedded journalists are just rewriting the stories from the government officials in order to promote their popularity. Lies, lies, lies one could say. Energy independence is a myth. In the global perspective, the situation will be even graver, at least with some natural resources. It is nicely described in Which Resource Will Run Out First?. I don´t think that your conclusion about the final energy independence is right. Mankind has proved to be able to find a new way how to become energetically independent in the moment of crisis. Maybe hydrogen, maybe oil and gas from deep inside of the oceans... There IS always some solution.

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 09:09 | 2364592 hamurobby

The contractions will continue until you submit!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=eWGsuEJ7Qeo&feature=endscreen

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 18:51 | 2364104 q99x2

But since Greece has been bailed out and everything is fixed it's not going to be reflected in this year's chart is it?

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 19:05 | 2364120 Venerability

Tyler,

Once again, there is a very big difference between Round One of the French elections and Round Two of the French elections.

The fringe parties - including the minority Centrist party - are taking a lot of votes away from the two major candidates in Round One.

Sarkozy may actually win - and at worst, he will be very, very close.

That gives the European leaders terrified of Hollande the temporary advantage, IMO, and I believe they try their very hardest to goose European markets the next two trading weeks.

The mammoth Euro Short position is acting unbelievably cocky - and they should not be at this point.

Sat, 04/21/2012 - 20:26 | 2364197 BlackholeDivestment

...befitting song. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKYy4JXODQk&feature=fvsr

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 00:06 | 2364345 trip kitchen

Rock bottom?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1qP_OqOJ8ug

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 04:36 | 2364437 Spigot

And this is all that $1.5 trillion serial annual deficit spending can get us. Shit! Its like the US$ doesn't buy you anything these days. I feel that 7% down in gas purchases. It feels like a ghost town out there. Is that % reflecting nominal dollars or gallons purchased? If nominal dollars, what is the YoY price diff in fuel?? Anyone know?

I have to remind myself that if it was not for governmental printing press in over drive (afore mentioned deficit spending) this country (USA) would be having "Great Depression"-escque photo ops all over the country. Can't wait to see how this is all going to play out. Its been a disaster so far.

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 10:42 | 2364699 Absinthe Minded

I'm in NH and my company makes ice and water shield for roofs. I don't know what's going on but we are up 40% in sales year to date. Maybe it will fall off a cliff soon, maybe not. Hopefully it continues. I'm pretty sure all of these tornadoes isn't hurting our business, although I hate to think we are profiting from someone elses misery. Makes me feel like Goldman Sacks. Keep stackin' people, PM's are still on sale.

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 11:08 | 2364725 earleflorida

the "gulf coast 'hurricane alley", has found a new, temporal seasonal path of 'east-de-le`resistance', along the Atlantic shoreline via virginia's concourse, settling in new england. it looks as if the smart wayfarer's are getting prepared for this anomalous event, yet cautious enough to expect the worst.

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 15:15 | 2365050 Silversem

I think oil prices are going up. I intend to make a good buck on this move using a contract for difference

Sun, 04/22/2012 - 17:17 | 2365321 radicall

We need a right shoulder first...

Where Do We Go From Here?

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