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Where Does The Greek Bailout Money Go?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Via Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

Greece is about to get an installment of 8 billion Euro.  I'm going to assume that is their quarterly installment.

Greece is running a primary deficit of about 6 billion Euro (as best as I can figure out).  So that is 1.5 billion per quarter.  So about 19 cents of every Euro of bailout money makes it way to fund Greece's current overspending.

As best as we can tell, Greek banks hold about 75 billion of debt and other Greek entities hold about 25 billion, bringing the total to 100 billion.  Assuming about 350 billion in total debt (again somewhere in the ballpark), that means about 23 cents go to Greek entities as debt service.  That number is a bit misleading, as much of this has been pledged to the ECB for funding, so although it supports the Greek banks, it also goes to the ECB.

The ECB holds 55 billion of Greek bonds directly.  So 18 cents of every Euro of the bailout goes to the ECB.

The "market" and "bilateral loans" total about 175 billion from what we could find.  This is a bit lower than the 205 billion the IIF is talking about, but seems in the right ballpark.  So about 40 cents of every Euro of the bailout is used to service debt held by non Greek banks and financial institutions.

We didn't look at the specific maturities, and just used averages. To the extent Greek pension funds for example, hold longer dated maturities, less of the money is really going to them, but for now have assumed that each group holds a similarly balanced portfolio.

We also haven't figured out about the 90 billion of derivative exposures Greece has and whether any bailout money is being used to pay on those.

In the end less than 19 cents of the bailout are going to allow Greece to continue its overspending.  About 23 cents goes to Greek institutions, though at this point, all of that is held by the ECB, so it is not fully benefiting Greece.

18 cents are going to the ECB directly and 40 cents are going to banks and insurance companies outside of Greece.  So at least 58 cents of every bailout Euro is going outside of Greece, and depending on how you treat the repo agreements, that number could easily be 70 cents.

So yes, Greece is getting a bailout, but you can see why Merkozy got so scared at the idea of a referendum.  The bulk of the money that Greece is "getting" comes right back to the rest of the EU.  Whatever posturing is going on, Greece will get away without meeting any of its stated goals, or at least it will until the EU decides it has written down enough principal and that the ECB can handle the shock.

This is our first attempt at breaking down where the bailout money really goes.  We have made a lot of assumptions and found data that seems sketchy at best, but will work on fixing any mistakes.  We do think it is an interesting way to look at it, and confirms who really has the problem with a Greek default - and it's not Greece.

 

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Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:22 | 1857264 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Wake up Greece!
Default NOW!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:23 | 1857993 TK7936
TK7936's picture

The money goes to those who lent it , be it Greek or non Greek. Dont borow money you cant afford. You wake up.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 19:52 | 1858818 Rynak
Rynak's picture

So, the bailout is going to corporations that have the right to shit money for free, and then lend that?

Looks like both sides being the fucking idiot: The one that pulled money out of its ass, and then pretended that it has any relevance.... and the one that accepted the fraud.

Thu, 11/10/2011 - 13:32 | 1866579 AnonymousAnarchist
AnonymousAnarchist's picture

I think you mean "don't lend money that won't be paid back". If you loan money to a deadbeat and, as expected, the deadbeat can't or won't pay, you don't get to force others to pay back the deadbeat's debt. In fact, anyone that loans money to any government (regardless of solvency) deserves to lose every penny.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:24 | 1857282 CPL
CPL's picture

4:1 ratio of the money being used productively and the rest to pay interest on debt with more borrowed money.

 

Unbelievable that people could seriously let it get that bad.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:44 | 1857412 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@CPL

It's truly a feces eating economic model.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 01:08 | 1859668 Sokhmate
Sokhmate's picture

Aka the fece-cally sound model.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:55 | 1857291 hedgeless_horseman
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Analysis:  Since the global inflation tax on the USD is arguably just as bad as it is now with the Euro, and given the high corelation between ForEx and all other assets, investing has now become merely a question of assessing relative devaluation among competing currencies in the Race To The Bottom, which Japan is losing, again...

"The Japanese government will continue to buy the EFSF bonds that we have been issuing over the last 10 months and we will continue to be in contact about future operations," Klaus Regling told reporters after a meeting with Takehiko Nakao, Japan's vice finance minister for international affairs.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/31/us-eurozone-fund-idUSTRE79U04V20111031

The Europeans can use all the acronyms and financial wizardry they care to, and hide the sausage in Tokyo for a while, but it is all still just money printing in the end.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:25 | 1857295 redpill
redpill's picture

This is why the Greek government dares not put this to referendum.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:25 | 1857297 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Asset reallocation defined: from one pocket to the other.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:06 | 1857589 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Just changing Taxmoney into Bankmoney.
TAKE WHAT IS RIGHTFULLY THEIRS!....... Because most money has the word bank printed on it....

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:25 | 1857300 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Good Lord just default. There will be money later on down the road.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:26 | 1857303 knukles
knukles's picture

So it all essentillay, in my feeble simple little mind which can only focus on a few things at once, comes down to this:

Those who are owed money by Greece are ponying up money to give to Greece so that Greece can pay the same people it owes with their own money.  Whilst being raped in the interim as an intermediate step, to be sure, because there are banksters involved.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:34 | 1857362 sabra1
sabra1's picture

not if they recieve printed out of air money, but repayment done in real money!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:38 | 1857379 qussl3
qussl3's picture

Actually debt as currency isnt printed out of air.

It must be borrowed.

Only then can it be created.

All the brouhaha is about who to stick the bill to.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:54 | 1857502 XitSam
XitSam's picture

I know! Borrow it from the future. There's lots of money in the future.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:03 | 1857902 flacon
flacon's picture

...as long as you don't go back to the future... /italian knee-slapper

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 18:37 | 1858569 Bwahaha WAGFDSMB
Bwahaha WAGFDSMB's picture

Sort of, governments are taking money from taxpayers and giving it to Greece, so Greece can hand it over to the oligarchs.  The oligarchs and the taxpayers aren't the same people, just because they live in the same countries.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:26 | 1857307 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

And greek people are dumb enough to accept this.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 18:22 | 1858518 Zero Govt
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Oh yes.. coz most of them are on the zombie State drip feed... who do you think are protesting!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:28 | 1857324 fyrebird
fyrebird's picture

Hah! No surprises there. The real bailout was always the EZ banking sector. Nobody gives a fig about actual Greeks nor their standards of living. Once the regional banks are safe, Greece will be allowed to collapse into itself.

Greece is going to show us all how it is turning back the clock 200 years.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:32 | 1857346 bernorange
bernorange's picture

They aren't using the headless chicken method to decide these things like the US Treasury?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IPEYycCRKXo&feature=related

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:35 | 1857369 knukles
knukles's picture

Dude.  Do you know all the things you can do with a headless chicken?

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:51 | 1858133 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Lol

You and that headless chicken go get a hotel or something.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:35 | 1857351 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

I don't really care about Greece. 

11,319,048 people live in Greece. 

There are 7 billion people in the world. 

Yet Greece threatens world financial stabiliteeee. 

This financial system we have adopted is obviously retarted....this is one adoption that needs to be returned.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:49 | 1857445 oogs66
oogs66's picture

the scary thing is that it probably doesn't threaten the financial system...it threatens some banks bonus pools, and some european sense of pride, and that is why it is such a big issue, even if it shouldn't be

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:49 | 1857448 Deadpool
Deadpool's picture

it's all a diversion from US and US state and pension debt and dollar debasement. 2012's issue.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:34 | 1857354 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

'Where Does The Greek Bailout Money Go?'.....

 

To thriving gyro stands all across Athens and beyond.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:34 | 1857357 catch edge ghost
catch edge ghost's picture

up and down the king's highway / in and out the eagle / that's the way the money goes / pop goes the weasel

 

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:35 | 1857363 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Circle Jerks

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:35 | 1857365 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

this is nothing new, it was known all along that most bailout dough will go back to EU/US banks, Greece is a political (dirty) game and it will end messy! no matter what merkozy and gang think/anticipate(ECB handling the "shock" etc)!

Once they have what they want greece is DEAD!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:35 | 1857368 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Greece and the rest of the PIIGS, default and make the banks eat their losses.

Iceland has defaulted and even jailed banksters and now in a recovery mode.

Agree to the EU terms and be bank debt slaves for decades.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:41 | 1857380 Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

Who's dumber, the dummy who gives a bankrupt money to pay his debts, or the bankrupt who holds all the trump cards but is unwilling to play them?  [edited]

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:38 | 1857382 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

All the bailout money

Its being used for a good purpose

To goose stocks, as it appears that the NY Composite is being "ServiceMastered"

"Like It Never Even Happened"

Its for the Greater Good....

LOL.....

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:12 | 1857625 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Three up arrows on that one. Perhaps it's the subtle attempt at humor?

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:43 | 1857403 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Dow now green

Bears starting to sweat again

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:46 | 1857428 somethingisrotten
somethingisrotten's picture

How's that NFLX and FSLR ski slop treating you, MoMo ??????????

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:23 | 1857662 prodigious_idea
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NFLX has been a real money maker the last 30 days (unless you were long at the plunge).  First naked Puts, then more naked Puts along with Naked Calls.  Love that f...ing stock.  Feeling a little guilty tho - maybe I should subscribe.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:44 | 1857411 devo
devo's picture

If you have a dead skunk in your house you don't notice the milk is going bad.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:45 | 1857422 Belarus
Belarus's picture

I guess I'm wrong; I really thought the Greek bailout money was going into the DOW every business day within the last hour of close or so.

Ah...doesn't matter. The power hour rally is here nonetheless. 

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:46 | 1857430 Triple A
Triple A's picture

according to leap, a newsletter in Europe, they say that all this attention payed towards Europe is just noise. Greece will get the bailout to buy time and eventually Europe will implement the Eurobond. They say that US is the real problem and the attention very shortly will turn inward. US, Japan, and UK will get hit the hardest. What do you guys think?

 

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:48 | 1857441 Belarus
Belarus's picture

Japan is screwed, no doubt about it. The U.S. will just keep printing. The market is finally acting like a discounting machine. It knows full well the melt-up now. Why bother waiting for Bernanke when you know he's always got your back. /Sarc.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:49 | 1857446 Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

Thats why the Greek people don't want it... all that bailout money goes to bailing out those with risk exposure to a Greek default but the Greeks will have to labor the rest of their lives to pay it all back.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:52 | 1857486 oogs66
oogs66's picture

the italians can join them now too!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:26 | 1857674 prodigious_idea
prodigious_idea's picture

Feels just like our $700B bailout after the recipients were disclosed.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:50 | 1857457 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

And the 7th largest economy in the world, the State of California is running a 15 billion dollar deficit. Add in the 10 Billion they borrowed from Wall St. last year and you now have a 25 billion dollar hole. Then if you consider the entitlements owed to Californians the number jumps to 3 TRILLION. So while everybody watches Greece just remember this is the same thing that will happen in California and the rest of America for that matter. It won't be long before the focus will be back here in the bankrupt nation of America and Meredith will be proven right as the worthless muni bonds turn into the worthless paper they truly are...

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:05 | 1857575 XitSam
XitSam's picture

Don't worry, there's always war to distract.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:34 | 1857723 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

California has always been at war with Nevada.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 17:18 | 1858258 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

"Meridith will be proven right.............................."

I'm not worried.   That's what CDS' are for.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 19:32 | 1858775 doggings
doggings's picture

CDS will not be triggered because Munis with crew cuts are not credit events and you are an evil speculator who must be punished. 

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:50 | 1857460 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

there is the pudding of my thesis....the banksters are the prime beneficiaries of the "bailouts" which is a fancy term for raping and pillaging....the purpose of all debt is to enslave....the banksters are concentrating power into their hands - being the true heads of state....they must be destroyed...

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:51 | 1857478 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

there is the pudding of my thesis....the banksters are the prime beneficiaries of the "bailouts" which is a fancy term for raping and pillaging....the purpose of all debt is to enslave....the banksters are concentrating power into their hands - being the true heads of state....they must be destroyed...

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:04 | 1857492 reggiehammond
reggiehammond's picture

Its almost 2pm. You know what time that means, right? Time for an afternoon rally. I think the headline to day is from Iran or maybe Italy. Two PMs resigning in the same week has to be FUCKING BULLISH in the midst of a debt crisis. I wonder if human resources at Goldman asks candidates if they would like be Prime Minister, Supreme Court Justice, or President after "trading" or whatever the fuck they do (probably just using leverage and inside information)? Check the volume on SPY. Let's take a real primitive approach to this. Stock price in some way should reflect supply and demand........if the demand is roughly 1/3 or a normal day and the float is the same how is the stock up a dollar? 

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:56 | 1857522 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

The banquet's over and NO ONE wants to pick up the check.  What's this?  All cellphones ring at once?  Mommy's calling:  Bye, see ya!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 19:15 | 1858715 dirtbagger
dirtbagger's picture

Oh No, the banquet is just beginning.  

Ireland was the pre-dinner drink;

Greece is now the appetizer;

Portugal will be the soup/salad;

Italy and Spain the main course; 

German and French Taxpayers are the diners who will be stuck with the tab.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:59 | 1857538 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

The banquet's over and NO ONE wants to pick up the check.  What's this?  All cellphones ring at once?  Mommy's calling:  Bye, see ya!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:08 | 1857607 blindman
blindman's picture

http://geraldcelentechannel.blogspot.com/
Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Webster Tarpley the Greek debt is all about Goldman Sachs control

Investigative Journalist Webster Tarpley talks about the Greek debt and the bogus referendum , he urges the greek people to vote against the austerity and to oust Papandreu who is the bankers puppet , Sarkozy and Merkel are bluffing this is not about saving Greece they could not care les about Greece , this is all about saving the Banks and nothing but the banks ...these austerity measures are Genocidal for the Greek people ....

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:09 | 1857612 reggiehammond
reggiehammond's picture

Let me tell you how the fuck finance works. I own a hedge fund. I raise a shit ton of money and keep TWO PERCENT OF IT RIGHT OFF THE TOP. Then I "INVEST" basically just move the money around to cover up the amount of fantasy sports I also have a ton of leverage which I can use to make 3 percent but when I use the leverage my 3 percent gain translates into an 8% percent gain. If I lose, I just write it off. Any research and travel is paid for by the investor. BTW I KEEP 20 percent of all the profits!!!!!!! It's basically a game of going to loan shark to bet with a bookie with tons of contracts and jargon. If you want to bet then football, tennis, or even NHL is a better look.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:32 | 1857616 blindman
Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:12 | 1857624 reggiehammond
reggiehammond's picture

This is for the SPY as of 2:15

Volume: 128,420,604 Avg Vol (3m): 309,829,000
Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:25 | 1857671 reggiehammond
reggiehammond's picture

HERE IS A STRATEGY THAT WORKS IN THIS MARKET. YOU ARE GONNA MAKE TONS OF FUCKING AND FUCK TONS OF GIRLS. IT's GENIUS. BUY 10,000 SHARES OF STOCK XYZ FOR SAY $2.00. THEN MAKE A BID FOR 100 SHARES AT $100 AFTER WHICH YOU SELL ALL THE OTHER SHARES YOU JUST BOUGHT FOR $2.00. IF ANYONE NEEDS TO PAY ME AS CONSULTANT FOR IMPLEMENTING THIS STRATEGY I KNOW SOME BASIC C+++ SO JUST HIT ME BACK. WE WILL BE ON A BEACH EARNING 20 PERCENT. 

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:21 | 1857985 Arthur
Arthur's picture

You are a genius.  I will be rich.  Thank you, thank you. 

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:51 | 1857826 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

Have we not learned anything in the past few years about what "baiouts" are? Or is this why we see so many upset with the status quo in politics and finance?

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:54 | 1857844 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The same chart could be made for all bailouts that have been made in any country for the last 30+ years.

The bottom line is that the financial sector has become a cancer that is killing the real economy.  The soone the system crashes, the sooner we can find out exactly what the value of everyone's labor is really worth.   Precisely why it won't be allowed to happen.  All things considered, I would say that between eCONomic collapse and invading Iran, the latter is a safer bet.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 17:03 | 1858181 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I am kinda afraid to see my true value of labor. So much of my money comes from convoluted healthcare rules and "management"fees for "supervising" hospital staff and renting out my billing number.

I suspect I am getting paid quadruple what i could make in a free market at half the work, so octuple?

Kinda scary. I need the ponzi to go on ten more years.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 18:18 | 1858507 Bwahaha WAGFDSMB
Bwahaha WAGFDSMB's picture

So it would be 42% cheaper to abandon greece and just bail out the ECB and non-Greek financials directly.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 19:54 | 1858841 MS7
MS7's picture

I think (btw, I know nothing about economics, but based on my understanding) they don't want to do that because then other bigger countries like Italy will ask to have their debts paid. Instead, the EU gives Greece money to stay in the euro zone and attaches measures to the bailout that must be taken and which are intended to make its life so miserable that other countries will not want to ever be like Greece. (The idea about intentionally making the economy bad to discourage bigger countries from following Greece's path comes from a great economist, Yanis Varoufakis. I hope I am explaining that part of his idea ok. That's what I understood anyway.)

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 19:58 | 1858851 jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

Monetarism at it's finest. 

Glass-Steagall

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