Where Does The Greek Bailout Money Go?

Tyler Durden's picture

Via Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

Greece is about to get an installment of 8 billion Euro.  I'm going to assume that is their quarterly installment.

Greece is running a primary deficit of about 6 billion Euro (as best as I can figure out).  So that is 1.5 billion per quarter.  So about 19 cents of every Euro of bailout money makes it way to fund Greece's current overspending.

As best as we can tell, Greek banks hold about 75 billion of debt and other Greek entities hold about 25 billion, bringing the total to 100 billion.  Assuming about 350 billion in total debt (again somewhere in the ballpark), that means about 23 cents go to Greek entities as debt service.  That number is a bit misleading, as much of this has been pledged to the ECB for funding, so although it supports the Greek banks, it also goes to the ECB.

The ECB holds 55 billion of Greek bonds directly.  So 18 cents of every Euro of the bailout goes to the ECB.

The "market" and "bilateral loans" total about 175 billion from what we could find.  This is a bit lower than the 205 billion the IIF is talking about, but seems in the right ballpark.  So about 40 cents of every Euro of the bailout is used to service debt held by non Greek banks and financial institutions.

We didn't look at the specific maturities, and just used averages. To the extent Greek pension funds for example, hold longer dated maturities, less of the money is really going to them, but for now have assumed that each group holds a similarly balanced portfolio.

We also haven't figured out about the 90 billion of derivative exposures Greece has and whether any bailout money is being used to pay on those.

In the end less than 19 cents of the bailout are going to allow Greece to continue its overspending.  About 23 cents goes to Greek institutions, though at this point, all of that is held by the ECB, so it is not fully benefiting Greece.

18 cents are going to the ECB directly and 40 cents are going to banks and insurance companies outside of Greece.  So at least 58 cents of every bailout Euro is going outside of Greece, and depending on how you treat the repo agreements, that number could easily be 70 cents.

So yes, Greece is getting a bailout, but you can see why Merkozy got so scared at the idea of a referendum.  The bulk of the money that Greece is "getting" comes right back to the rest of the EU.  Whatever posturing is going on, Greece will get away without meeting any of its stated goals, or at least it will until the EU decides it has written down enough principal and that the ECB can handle the shock.

This is our first attempt at breaking down where the bailout money really goes.  We have made a lot of assumptions and found data that seems sketchy at best, but will work on fixing any mistakes.  We do think it is an interesting way to look at it, and confirms who really has the problem with a Greek default - and it's not Greece.

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Ahmeexnal's picture

Wake up Greece!
Default NOW!

TK7936's picture

The money goes to those who lent it , be it Greek or non Greek. Dont borow money you cant afford. You wake up.

Rynak's picture

So, the bailout is going to corporations that have the right to shit money for free, and then lend that?

Looks like both sides being the fucking idiot: The one that pulled money out of its ass, and then pretended that it has any relevance.... and the one that accepted the fraud.

AnonymousAnarchist's picture

I think you mean "don't lend money that won't be paid back". If you loan money to a deadbeat and, as expected, the deadbeat can't or won't pay, you don't get to force others to pay back the deadbeat's debt. In fact, anyone that loans money to any government (regardless of solvency) deserves to lose every penny.

CPL's picture

4:1 ratio of the money being used productively and the rest to pay interest on debt with more borrowed money.


Unbelievable that people could seriously let it get that bad.

hedgeless_horseman's picture

Analysis:  Since the global inflation tax on the USD is arguably just as bad as it is now with the Euro, and given the high corelation between ForEx and all other assets, investing has now become merely a question of assessing relative devaluation among competing currencies in the Race To The Bottom, which Japan is losing, again...

"The Japanese government will continue to buy the EFSF bonds that we have been issuing over the last 10 months and we will continue to be in contact about future operations," Klaus Regling told reporters after a meeting with Takehiko Nakao, Japan's vice finance minister for international affairs.



The Europeans can use all the acronyms and financial wizardry they care to, and hide the sausage in Tokyo for a while, but it is all still just money printing in the end.

redpill's picture

This is why the Greek government dares not put this to referendum.

SwingForce's picture

Asset reallocation defined: from one pocket to the other.

Sudden Debt's picture

Just changing Taxmoney into Bankmoney.
TAKE WHAT IS RIGHTFULLY THEIRS!....... Because most money has the word bank printed on it....

Dr. Engali's picture

Good Lord just default. There will be money later on down the road.

knukles's picture

So it all essentillay, in my feeble simple little mind which can only focus on a few things at once, comes down to this:

Those who are owed money by Greece are ponying up money to give to Greece so that Greece can pay the same people it owes with their own money.  Whilst being raped in the interim as an intermediate step, to be sure, because there are banksters involved.

sabra1's picture

not if they recieve printed out of air money, but repayment done in real money!

qussl3's picture

Actually debt as currency isnt printed out of air.

It must be borrowed.

Only then can it be created.

All the brouhaha is about who to stick the bill to.

XitSam's picture

I know! Borrow it from the future. There's lots of money in the future.

flacon's picture

...as long as you don't go back to the future... /italian knee-slapper

Bwahaha WAGFDSMB's picture

Sort of, governments are taking money from taxpayers and giving it to Greece, so Greece can hand it over to the oligarchs.  The oligarchs and the taxpayers aren't the same people, just because they live in the same countries.

YesWeKahn's picture

And greek people are dumb enough to accept this.

Zero Govt's picture

Oh yes.. coz most of them are on the zombie State drip feed... who do you think are protesting!

fyrebird's picture

Hah! No surprises there. The real bailout was always the EZ banking sector. Nobody gives a fig about actual Greeks nor their standards of living. Once the regional banks are safe, Greece will be allowed to collapse into itself.

Greece is going to show us all how it is turning back the clock 200 years.

bernorange's picture

They aren't using the headless chicken method to decide these things like the US Treasury?


knukles's picture

Dude.  Do you know all the things you can do with a headless chicken?

topcallingtroll's picture


You and that headless chicken go get a hotel or something.

bob_dabolina's picture

I don't really care about Greece. 

11,319,048 people live in Greece. 

There are 7 billion people in the world. 

Yet Greece threatens world financial stabiliteeee. 

This financial system we have adopted is obviously retarted....this is one adoption that needs to be returned.

oogs66's picture

the scary thing is that it probably doesn't threaten the financial system...it threatens some banks bonus pools, and some european sense of pride, and that is why it is such a big issue, even if it shouldn't be

Deadpool's picture

it's all a diversion from US and US state and pension debt and dollar debasement. 2012's issue.

The Big Ching-aso's picture

'Where Does The Greek Bailout Money Go?'.....


To thriving gyro stands all across Athens and beyond.

catch edge ghost's picture

up and down the king's highway / in and out the eagle / that's the way the money goes / pop goes the weasel


gwar5's picture

Circle Jerks

TradingJoe's picture

this is nothing new, it was known all along that most bailout dough will go back to EU/US banks, Greece is a political (dirty) game and it will end messy! no matter what merkozy and gang think/anticipate(ECB handling the "shock" etc)!

Once they have what they want greece is DEAD!

yogibear's picture

Greece and the rest of the PIIGS, default and make the banks eat their losses.

Iceland has defaulted and even jailed banksters and now in a recovery mode.

Agree to the EU terms and be bank debt slaves for decades.

Withdrawn Sanction's picture

Who's dumber, the dummy who gives a bankrupt money to pay his debts, or the bankrupt who holds all the trump cards but is unwilling to play them?  [edited]

RobotTrader's picture

All the bailout money

Its being used for a good purpose

To goose stocks, as it appears that the NY Composite is being "ServiceMastered"

"Like It Never Even Happened"

Its for the Greater Good....


disabledvet's picture

Three up arrows on that one. Perhaps it's the subtle attempt at humor?

RobotTrader's picture

Dow now green

Bears starting to sweat again

somethingisrotten's picture

How's that NFLX and FSLR ski slop treating you, MoMo ??????????

prodigious_idea's picture

NFLX has been a real money maker the last 30 days (unless you were long at the plunge).  First naked Puts, then more naked Puts along with Naked Calls.  Love that f...ing stock.  Feeling a little guilty tho - maybe I should subscribe.

devo's picture

If you have a dead skunk in your house you don't notice the milk is going bad.

Belarus's picture

I guess I'm wrong; I really thought the Greek bailout money was going into the DOW every business day within the last hour of close or so.

Ah...doesn't matter. The power hour rally is here nonetheless. 

Triple A's picture

according to leap, a newsletter in Europe, they say that all this attention payed towards Europe is just noise. Greece will get the bailout to buy time and eventually Europe will implement the Eurobond. They say that US is the real problem and the attention very shortly will turn inward. US, Japan, and UK will get hit the hardest. What do you guys think?


Belarus's picture

Japan is screwed, no doubt about it. The U.S. will just keep printing. The market is finally acting like a discounting machine. It knows full well the melt-up now. Why bother waiting for Bernanke when you know he's always got your back. /Sarc.

Zymurguy's picture

Thats why the Greek people don't want it... all that bailout money goes to bailing out those with risk exposure to a Greek default but the Greeks will have to labor the rest of their lives to pay it all back.

oogs66's picture

the italians can join them now too!

prodigious_idea's picture

Feels just like our $700B bailout after the recipients were disclosed.

tahoebumsmith's picture

And the 7th largest economy in the world, the State of California is running a 15 billion dollar deficit. Add in the 10 Billion they borrowed from Wall St. last year and you now have a 25 billion dollar hole. Then if you consider the entitlements owed to Californians the number jumps to 3 TRILLION. So while everybody watches Greece just remember this is the same thing that will happen in California and the rest of America for that matter. It won't be long before the focus will be back here in the bankrupt nation of America and Meredith will be proven right as the worthless muni bonds turn into the worthless paper they truly are...

XitSam's picture

Don't worry, there's always war to distract.

hedgeless_horseman's picture

California has always been at war with Nevada.