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Which Of These Facebook Analysts Is Not Like The Others?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Yesterday we showed how out of a universe 21 'analysts', just one ended up being correct on ZNGA. The trick part of the question was that the 'analyst' in question was actually a computer quant model. Today, we look at FB whose price has just tumbled to a new all time post-IPO low with a $23 handle. And just like with ZNGA today, where BTIG's Richard Greenfield ended up apologizing for his horrible call, something tells us tomorrow we will get quite a few more apologies too, not least from Greenfield again whose Neutral call will hardly be "good enough" for a stock that has now lost over a third of its value since its market cap.

 

From Telsey Advisory Group's (?) Thomas Forte's $49 target to Erlan Abdikarimo of IFG Content with his seemingly over-accurate $24.62 target, here is the 38 analysts complteley unbiased perspectives on the illustrious social media site's stock. Intriguingly, the average target price among them all is $37,74 - just below the IPO price.

 

Chart: Bloomberg

 

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Thu, 07/26/2012 - 17:59 | 2654804 ACP
ACP's picture

"Oh, Mr. Greenfield!"

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 18:13 | 2654833 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Can you imagine one of these analysts getting stranded at an airport in flyover country?  I can see the bar scene now:

Flakesbook analyst: "Hi there, I'd like a cranberry vodka martini please.  And I'd like to buy this gentleman a drink.  What would you like sir?"

Drunk oilfield fracking guy: "Since it's free make it a triple Jack Black."

Flakesbook analyst: "So, what do you do for a living sir?"

Drunk oilfield fracking guy: "I'm a nat gas well fracker.  What do you do pardner?"

Flakesbook analyst: "I am a Facebook analyst and I work in San Francisco."

Drunk oilfield fracking guy: "Buuuurrrrp.  My wife left me, hiccup, after she met some shithead on that interwebs site." SMACK!!!!

One stiff right hand ends the meeting........

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 19:19 | 2655019 whstlblwr
whstlblwr's picture

When does analyst or valuations matter. The banksters want to get paid at $22.

Ring...ring. Ring...ring.

Hello, Bernanke, BE MY BITCH!

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 20:00 | 2655114 mcguire
mcguire's picture

i find reading in 'screenplay' mode tedious.  

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 20:17 | 2655153 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

unless doing a rehersal in kate upton/beckinsale/holmes set trailer

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 21:31 | 2655323 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

You see, the difference between paid Wall Street analcysts that pimp whatever they can make a buck on and real world analysts who make nothing, is the truth. 

Wall Street analcyst says in March 2012: "BUY ZNGA WITH BOTH HANDS!! WON'T GET CHEAPER!"

Rogue blogger analyst says in March 2012: "Which bring us to ZYNGA. Here's a company that produces online brain cell killing time wasting games for Facebook and various platforms, hasn't made a dime of profit and yet is worth an astounding $10 BILLION. Those snake oil salesmen did it again! As far as on-the-street trends go, their fad games (Farmville, Mafia Wars) are already dropping off the charts. Like all good fads, they come and they go. Could you imagine the company that produced "fingerboards" going public and trading at a market cap of $10 BILLION? We can. Just get a good snake oil salesman. Our fair price for the two hit wonder ZNGA? $3.80-$4.50, and that's generous.

http://fiatsfire.blogspot.com/2012/03/greek-salad-fryday-greece-bond-yields.html

And of course, the other calls this guy made back in March are astounding!!!

Groupon, Zynga, Facebook, Yelp, Netflix etc etc etc....

 

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 00:27 | 2655560 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

For those who invest, I have a very simple idea that has guided a lot of my "opinoin" on value in the technology space. It is real simple; commoddity. If anyone can do it, it ain't worth shit. Technology is a form of art, and sometimes, the "producers" have that right blend of "something" that is special.

But that never scales. This is NOT common in the big, multi-billion dollar sort of way. It doesn't work like that.

Google is a technology company, they spend a lot of money, they have a lot of smart people, they create markets. Apple is the same way (to some extent - but their markets commoditize and they lose the ability to charge premium). Fair value? Who knows. But, when you start going down the food chain, to these fad comapnies ... always ask your self how hard is it to get into this market to compete.

If the company is not a CONSISTENT innovator, pulling a "Turbinia", over and over, you need to be very concerned about long term value. Many, many tech companies are "right place, right time" and get some play, but they never had a long term chance of anything.

Just how it is in the tech space. Innovate at light speed (i.e. google) ... or "control" the market (MS in the 90s, IBM in the 80s) ... or sink (most other companies).

Regards,

COoter

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 03:03 | 2655647 Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

Wow, my brain hurts when I see people on the intertubes saying they bought znga.  I mean, when I was wrecking it in the BVSN P&D, anyone and everyone even remotely associated with the P2P and B2B tech stocks understood very clearly that everything even remotely associated with these fields, was going to reach a terminal death moment in the 1-3 months before the FB ipo.  Saba, MS, bvsn, salesforce, znga, all that shit was going to tank.  it was all just 1 super giant pump and dump centered around the fb pump and dump, and we all fuckin knew it.

 

How in the FUCK, do these retail retards still get morons to invest their money with them?  It's fucking mind boggling.  Seriously, I should be a money manager, I make 100% every 1 to 1.5 months.

Fuck this shit, you got money you want to turn over into 100% in 3 months?  fuck it pm me on youtube and I'll show you my p&l and we can talk business. 

They actually put money in znga.  my brain hurts so much just thinking about it.

GODDAMNIT THEY WERE WORTH MORE THAN TWICE EA GAMES AND THEY MAKE SOME DOUCHEBAGGITY GAME FOR IDIOTS, FOR FUCKING FREE, CALL FARMVILLE?  THAT'S LIKE VALUING EBAUMSWORTH 10x UBISOFT.  GODDAMNIT THE WORLD IS NOTHING BUT FUCKTARD MUPPETS HOLY SHIT THIS BLOWS.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 07:10 | 2655780 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Mr. Pynchon -- will you please stop posting on ZH and get back to work on your next novel.  Many thanks.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 20:50 | 2655228 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

I heard that bitch Zuckerberg on the conference call. Sounds like a kid with a science fair project

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 03:01 | 2655652 Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

LOL, conference call?  FB HAS NO FUTURE.  NO PROFITS.  NO ORIGINALITY.  POOR MANAGEMENT.  TERRIBLE REPUTATION.  & if decelerating addition of users to its user-base is a sign to short a stock...

GODDAMNIT WTF IS WRONG WITH PPL?!?!  THEY ARE A BUTTFUCKING P&D.  FB IS THE MOTHER FUCKING EASIEST PLAY EVER.  WAIT FOR IT TO GO UP, THEN MOTHER FUCKING SHORT IT.  JESUS CHRIST THIS IS SOOOO EASY.  I could have shorted FB and ZNGA for longer, yea.  But you can't make 100% a month doing it.

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 00:06 | 2655534 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

IHMH,

I never green posts as I just like to read on ZH. It is very infrequent, but you sir, earned a green.

My old man was a rough neck on off shore LA rigs (while earning his bachelors - ended up a finance masters from UTA and worked for the TX RR Commission - back when you could work a summer job and pay for a year of school).

My favorite story was his first time out on the chopper. The various crew leads would take turns picking team memebers after fresh crew arrived, sort of like the kids who play street football. My old may is a bit over 6'. Because he was new, he was the second to last guy to get picked. His lead didn't say anything, so my Dad asked him, "Why did you pick me?". The response? "All you need to know about this job son, is you need a size 42 jumper and a size 2 hat".

LMAO!

Regards,

Cooter

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 18:00 | 2654808 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

How about John Paulson with his Novagold resources today..Is that guy a one hit wonder or what?

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 19:57 | 2655107 Nozza
Nozza's picture

"John Paulson. John Paulson. John Paulson". Oh he's not dead.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 18:03 | 2654817 veyron
veyron's picture

I'm glad to see at least one person had a sell rec

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 19:35 | 2655054 kalasend
kalasend's picture

Did you notice that's a Khazakstani firm? Borat must be proud, "it's niiiiiiice"

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 18:33 | 2654819 Racer
Racer's picture

Analcysts = Sheep out to catch lemmings

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 18:04 | 2654820 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Anybody who rates a company that has a 57 billion market cap and 1.2 billion in revenues a buy should be run out of dodge. I might think about it when it's in single digits.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 18:07 | 2654824 northman
northman's picture

Seems to me that the only thing better than an ex post apology and downgrade would be an ex post apology / admission that you have no idea what you are doing, your ratings mean nothing, and you're retiring from the business.

If you did not have the wherewithal to realize that selling virtual tractors to depressed teens is not a viable business then really what business do you have managing other peoples' money. The only question that anyone should have been, and should still be, asking re: ZNGA is why does it exist, when does it go to zero, and why is it not going to zero now? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fayTpKCQd5M

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 18:08 | 2654826 Agent P
Agent P's picture

A sell side analyst tweets "we were wrong" and Twitter goes offline....looks like the built-in safety measures are working as designed.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 18:09 | 2654827 Richard Head
Richard Head's picture

NEUTRAL! Hahahahahaha!

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 18:12 | 2654831 iRidiculous
iRidiculous's picture

It's a gott dan train wreck!

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 18:12 | 2654832 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

Why would anyone want to go on FB and let their "friends" know: 

That they have lost their job

That the high dollar college education their kids got has merely qualified the kids to move back home

That they still have a home only because the bank doesn't want the loss from the foreclosure on its book right now

That they can't afford to meet you at Starbucks

That they would like to buy something from Amazon but their credit cards are maxed.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 18:35 | 2654901 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

Or argue the merits of someone driving an Escalade (with RIMS) and an eyephone to the food bank- because- "bad things happen to good people"?

True story. 

 

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 19:10 | 2655000 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Helpful Starbucks tip: you can usually get the teabag and a cup of hot water for about 50 cents.  If you want the barista to put the teabag in the hot water for you, the price shoots up about a buck.

They will give you hot water all day long.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 19:13 | 2655006 ForTheWorld
ForTheWorld's picture

If they cancelled their Netflix and Cable accounts, they could afford to meet you at Starbucks.

Plus, can't they just the cash portion of the EBT card for coffee? Works for strippers.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 20:12 | 2655137 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

i hear people talking about arguments from facebook comments....and i am constantly asking people why do you want to live in a home without any curtains.....and they just look at me.....you know the sad part....they are dumb and happy with jerry, idol, housewives........and we are stressed, pissed and wheelling out the gullotine.....not sure who the dumb ones are.....and if you drive 55 in the left lane of an interstate or such, there is always clear sailing in front of you..... never a traffic problem ......

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 18:18 | 2654844 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Bullshit FB. And the sheeples keep falling for this crap .

 

Learn from your parents , Use Birth control

 

 

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 18:25 | 2654858 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

My insurance guy bought 1K shares of this farce. I tried to warn him.

Now I guess my auto rate will go up.

Damn Fluckerberg!

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 18:41 | 2654925 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

I visited my insurance guys office a couple of months back for the first time. From the admin's desk, I could see an autographed picture of Bill Clinton on the wall in his office.

Lucky for him, he does not come in on Saturday.

He probably bought some falseclaimbook too.

I still have not seen him personally, but I imagine he looks like Ned "The Head" Ryerson. 

"All The Ned Scenes" - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xkW_ZkMtmlQ

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 18:47 | 2654942 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Thanx for the links.

He's a young guy; maybe it'll be a learning screwperience.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 20:19 | 2655158 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

they really thought it would be the next google....  dumb fucks

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 19:18 | 2655018 ForTheWorld
ForTheWorld's picture

"I'd love to stand here and talk with you, but I'm not going to."

If only more people were this honest.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 18:18 | 2654845 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IS NO
MATCH FOR NATURAL STUPIDITY.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 18:26 | 2654847 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Psssst! Hey, Hans, want some Tulip Bulbs? It's the IN thing!

Ja, but how are zey so cheap?

I get them direct off the boat.

I must get in! Every house on the canal has some!

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 18:56 | 2654970 AlphaWolfe
AlphaWolfe's picture

I def have to get some Tulips, I'm gonna flip 'em and make a milli

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 18:30 | 2654864 Ineverslice
Ineverslice's picture

Hey Greenfield, get ready to find out what it really means to work for a living, pal.

Sorry 'bout that.  Go log on to FB, maybe your "friends" have some comforting words for you.

Btw, how we lookin' at 23.90...is it a buy?

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 18:37 | 2654878 billsykes
billsykes's picture

Downgraded to neutral? not sell right fucking now or a  SRFN downgrade?

neutral is my choice on airplane food or whether the walls in my apartment are egg shell or off white.

 

not lose all my fucking money very quickly kind of neutral, or you have 6 months left to live neutral.

 

 

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 18:33 | 2654887 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

"Pachter'd" again... this guy is dangerous!

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 18:35 | 2654898 TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

This just in, hot off the presses:

 

Breaking News

Shanghai Underground News Syndicate

 

Prison Riots in China shut down Twitter

 

The Underground News Syndicate in Shanghai has reported widespread riots were carried out today in various prisons throughout China. A prison official (who wishes to remain unnamed) confirmed that millions of Chinese prisoners refused to sit at their Internet terminals today. When asked, why this would affect twitter.com the official responded, “we had enough willing prisoners to man either the fake fadebook.com accounts or the fake twitter accounts, but not both.” The source went on to explain, “The Central Planning Apparatus views the fadebook accounts as more valuable because they generate more revenue. The western companies pay more for fake fadebook non-content than for fake twitter non-content.”

 

When asked more precisely, why would twitter need to go offline? The source explained, “because so many twitter accounts are manned by Chinese prisoners, that their absence would have been noticed by Westerners.” Once the prisoners were “convinced” to go back to their Internet workstations, twitter was brought back online.

 

The News Syndicate's report went on to mention that not all prisoners were back on duty. Currently many Internet accounts are still unmanned. One notorious account going by the pseudonym 'AnAnonymous' on zerohedge.com remains unmanned even now. The prison official explained, “the AnAnonymous account is only a trainee account at the prison's Training and Indoctrination Center. It is used only for training new prisoners. They can practice and improve their Internet skills with it.”

 

A source from zerohedge named Tyler Durden confirmed the low quality posts from the AnonAnymous account which seems to verify its use by trainees. The prison official claimed, “several trainees were pulled off of the Anonymous account to man a few fadebook accounts. Other trainees were put onto twitter accounts, when it was brought back online.” He assured the Syndicate's reporter that the AnAnonymous account would be manned again as soon as the dust settles.

 

One zerohedge member was quoted as saying, “yeah, I noticed something was different today; but I couldn't put my US-Citizen finger on it.”

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 18:46 | 2654939 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

US-CITIZENISM finger on it.

All that work and you blow it at the end.

 

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 18:52 | 2654955 TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

naw, i thoughta that too, but iirc, he leaves off the -ism sometimes.  And besides, the quote is from a Yankee, who woulda left the -ism off for sure.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 18:57 | 2654973 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

We spend WAY too much time around these parts...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lspjLG9nHXk

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 18:53 | 2654958 magpie
magpie's picture

Say what you want about the Chinese agitprop, i highly doubt that when you troll hard enough their elites come out to troll you back personally.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 20:04 | 2655121 TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

well, i would certainly hope not...

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 18:37 | 2654907 Kiwi Pete
Kiwi Pete's picture

Well if the best analyst is a computer quant model it's time for a bit of sacking and outsourcing. Seems only fair that since most of the trading is now done by computers that they should now be advised by a computer. Looks like the good old Homo Sapian is redundant. What model number is that? HAL2000?

Oh the humanity!

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 18:44 | 2654934 Catflappo
Catflappo's picture

No coverage from Morgan Stanley?

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 19:01 | 2654982 LeisureSmith
LeisureSmith's picture

Facebook is down more and i'm drunker than i was yesterday, the higher my blood alcohol content gets the harder Faceplant faceplants. The weekend is still ahead, the weather is great and i'm no quitter so holders of this lukewarm turd beware...and for god's sake, remember to wash your hands before any facepalming.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 19:23 | 2655029 ForTheWorld
Thu, 07/26/2012 - 19:27 | 2655033 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Zuckerpuke should buy himself a FACEMASK , so as to avoid being pelted by various vegetables at his next shareholder meeting!

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 19:32 | 2655045 monopoly
monopoly's picture

And how much are these idiot know nothing analysts get paid to spew out this bullshit? Do they even bother to do their homework and really investigate a company, or do they just look at what the company puts out, check the WX. and then make their forecast, most of the time screwing the small investor to the wall.

The whole lot of them should be fired or promoted to janitor. Worthless crap.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 19:46 | 2655078 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

FaceBook -- Yet another great buying opportunity for MillionDollarBonus who believes in Dollar-Cost Averaging and looks forward to the stories he will tell his grandchildren about his investment in FaceBook.

MDB, is that not almost an exact quote from you on the day of the IPO, when you were lucky enough to have someone sell short to you when you had told your broker to get you "in at any price on the open", and you were lucky enough to hit the all-time top tick?

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 20:15 | 2655145 suz
suz's picture

The Financials were the same 6 months ago as what they are today. What's the problem?

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 20:22 | 2655164 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

I'm going to take a wild guess and say it's the analyst who actually followed their own recommendation and bought some Facebook stock on IPO day. You know, the one who's filing for bankruptcy tomorrow. 

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 20:43 | 2655206 doc_in_the_house
doc_in_the_house's picture

FINALLY !!

downgrading zynga to neutral...After it tanks -90% from $15 to $3 = some FREAKING "GENIUS" LOL !!!!!!!

that "ANALyst" is perfectly qualified to be a stupid CBS-MW "REPORTER" = STUPID CONTRARIAN INDICATOR

ROFLMAO !!!

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 21:06 | 2655267 Catullus
Catullus's picture

I'm holding on to $19 puts.  Come on, baby!

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 21:36 | 2655332 AU5K
AU5K's picture

How much should a company be worth that makes $1 in revenue per user?  They will never monetize with current management, and eventually kids will move on to another site.  I see sub $10.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 21:56 | 2655365 Cosimo de Medici
Cosimo de Medici's picture

Time to back up the truck.  Remember:  you haven't lost if you haven't sold.  I just went and counted my stack of FB shares, and yup, they're all still there. 

Well, at least I still have my silver, which is just crushing FB.  Sheesh, down more than a third from the IPO price, FB is.  LOSER!  My silver is only down 31% Y-o-Y.  Let John "What Have You Done for Me Lately" Paulson try and beat that one, eh Eric Sprott?  Those FB anal-ysts ought to be shot, effing over the sheeple like that.  My boys at APMEX and Tulving and Kitco and Goldcore and KingWorld would never steer me wrong.  I'm no Muppet! 

Truth be known on FB, it's MANIPULATION!  Sure.  I've got links out the yingyang to prove it.  You know, the Alex Jones of stocks, Jim Cramer, has all the dirt on it.  Ah, what the heck, it's just the paper price.  Maybe I should average down?????  Yea, that's the ticket.  Anyway, I got some of my FB shares pre IPO, so I'm still up on those.  Me and Mark and Sean Parker, baby!  To da moon!  You laugh?  Let's see how hard you laugh when I trade a couple for FB shares for your McMansion!

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 23:27 | 2655492 fuu
fuu's picture

A veritable tour-de-farce.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 21:58 | 2655374 Yohimbo
Yohimbo's picture

when will it die, please let it die, please help kill it. 

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 22:33 | 2655428 Ted Baker
Ted Baker's picture

Us government is responsible for the sell-off of FB

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 02:01 | 2655618 Gavrikon
Gavrikon's picture

Pets.com, anyone?

Fri, 07/27/2012 - 03:49 | 2655664 Floodmaster
Floodmaster's picture

A good example of misallocation of capital, this country is controlled by bankers.There is no wealth creation in an economy of speculators.

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