While You Were Sleeping, Central Banks Flooded The World In Liquidity
There are those who have been waiting to buy undilutable precious metals in response to a headline announcement from the Fed that it is starting to buy up hundreds of billions of Treasurys or MBS. This is understandable - after all that is precisely the trigger that the headline scanning robots which account for 90% of market action in the past year are programmed to do. And the worst thing that one can do is put on the right trade at the wrong time. Yet it may come as a surprise to some, that while the world was waiting, and waiting, and waiting, for Bernanke to hit the Print button, virtually every other central bank was quietly unleashing it own mini tsunami of liquidity. In fact, as Morgan Stanley puts it, "the Great Monetary Easing Part 2 is in full swing." But wait, there's more: in an Austrian world, where fundamentals don't matter and only how much additional nominal fiat is created is relevant, it is sheer idiocy to assume that the printers will stop here... or anywhere for that matter. They simply can't, now that the marginal utility of every dollars is sub 1.00 relative to GDP creation. This means that by the time the Global Weimar is in full swing, we will see much, much more easing. Sure enough, MS anticipates an unprecedented additional round of easing in the months ahead. So for those waiting to buy gold et al at the same time as DE Shaw's correlation quants do, the time will be long gone. Because slowly everyone is realizing that it is not the Fed that is the marginal creator of fake money. It is everyone.
Behold, the Great Monetary Easing part 2:
MS Summary:
The Great Monetary Easing Part 2 is in full swing – and begets inflation risks. Global monetary policy interconnectedness, the impact of central bank easing on commodity prices, and the possibility of an improved outlook for the real economy could mean a return of the Global Inflation Merry-Go-Round:
1) Super-expansionary monetary policy in the major developed economies, particularly the US, a) contributes to commodity inflation and b) is imported by EM central banks through (US dollar) soft and hard pegs.
2) Price pressures rise in EM due to domestic overheating and higher commodity prices. Inflation is then re-exported to DM through more expensive goods exports.
3) More expensive imports from EM and dearer commodities raise inflation in DM. In turn, DM central banks initiate the next round by maintaining – or increasing – monetary accommodation.
2013 might yet look like 2011 on the inflation front.
...and Detail:
The Great Monetary Easing (Part 2), is in full swing … In response to a slowing global economy and further downside risks emanating from the possibility of an escalating Eurozone debt crisis, central banks all over the world – and across the DM-EM divide – have been deploying their arsenal for a while now, and should continue to do so. The result is aggressive monetary easing on a global scale – what we have dubbed the Great Monetary Easing, part 2 (GME 2 - see Sunday Start: What Next in the Global Economy, January 22, 2012); this follows on from GME1 in 2009-10. The GME2 is now in full swing. Last week, the Bank of England announced a further GBP 50bn of gilts purchases, to take place over the next 3 months. On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan upped the target of its Asset Purchase Program by 50%, from JPY 20trn to JPY 30trn, with the increment concentrated exclusively on JGB purchases. We think Sweden’s Riksbank will pick up the baton from the Bank of Japan on Thursday and cut the repo rate by 25 basis points.
Half the world's central banks have reqliuified in the past few months!
Out of a total of 33 central banks under our coverage, 16 have eased policy in various ways since 4Q11; 7 out of 10 DM central banks and 9 out of 23 EM central banks. Many of these central banks will ease further, on our forecasts, while the central banks of Poland, Korea, Malaysia and Mexico, which have not cut so far, will also join in (and the National Bank of Hungary will likely reverse its 100 basis points of hikes over the course of the year).
What is surprising, is that the primary beneficiary of these hundreds of billions in excess liquidity from around the world, has so far been the US, where courtesy of the biggest equity market, the reflexive flaw that the stock market is the economy has led to what some have noted is decoupling, when in reality it is merely outperformance of the US stock market, where the bulk of global liquidity has concentrated. And now, like in 2011, that luiqidity is starting to spill over again: gas just hit $3.52, and rising ever faster, which just happens to be the most direct, implicit tax on US consumera. And it is now detracting from growth.
Finally, another way of visualizing the global central banks' balance sheets.
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Print and print some more until we run out of ink. Yeaaaa Haaaaa
computers don't require ink, just energy.
i should buy more silver then?
I thought I felt a wet spot in the bed last night, but I didn't say nothing.
When I was a kid we would play Monopoly with 2 banks, and everyone would get double the starting cash.
It took longer to go bust, but those who played smart and had good luck made wads of $$.
Same game, different circumstances.
We're all gonna be billionaires!
Go debt go!
I know you can do it.
They flooded the world with trillion... And all I got was.... Nothing....
Are you aware that under the offical Monopoly rules, the bank can never run out of money? If all the Monopoly money has been distributed, players are allowed to issue new pieces of paper with denominations written on them.
If libertarians created Monopoly, the game would just end as soon as all the money was distributed because elastic currency is evil. I always marvel at how libertarians can believe that the growth of an economy should be tethered to something totally arbitrary like the availability of a metal. Throughout all of history, inelastic currencies have always been replace by elastic currencies which have the ability to conform to the needs of a growing economy.
Max Fischer, Civis Mundi
until these elastic currencies are printed into oblivion.
There. Fixed it fer ya!
Yeah? Is that so Max Fischer, Civis Mundi? (champion of dickheaded reasoning)...
Last time I remember playing 'Monopoly', not only was it played with play money... But I didn't have to starve, or heat the house, or put gas in the token to travel around the board...
You are about the most self righteous (but 'dumbest') motherfucker on the p[lanet...
I understand the concern.
You know what comes right after the reinstatement of the non-fractional gold standard that every two-bit survivalist thinks is going to magically solve everything?
Those same fuckin' assholes who couldn't be bothered to understand the basis for an elastic money supply start calling for the slaughter of the Jews... because they hoard all the gold.
And so it goes...hope you're keeping dual-citizenship, Max.
max, i am guessing you are trolling, you can't possibly believe that.
as money is a store of value, it should be tied to something, oh, i dunno, maybe actually *of value*.
it can be something arbitrary like gold or silver or something else, as long as it's real.
it absolutely must not be tied to something imagniary like a rainbow emanating from a unicorn's horn, that can be created with a wave of bernanke's magic wand, because if you do, then money becomes meaningless, and that's the realization we're coming to today.
NG and coal and oil. Materials will make a come back with all this money fresh money comes looking for hard assets to buy.
No wonder my hands are covered in multi-colored ink after I fished through the wallet for a $20.
Our Fusex acct is up a ton (mostly thanks to Exxon, Chevron & Apple).
computers don't require ink, just energy.
They're going to need more voltage.
Yes, keep the floodgates open. It will only push up stocks higher, bringing higher sentiment into the stock market, creating the ultimate short opportunity. The chart in this link has the most recent investor newsletter sentiment reading levels. Can you say all in?
http://www.ftense.com/2012/02/stock-market-sentiment-we-can-only-go.html
It will only push up stocks higher ...
Dow = 14,000 in six to eight months. Politics requires it.
Six to eight months? Nonsense...we're only a few more trading days like today from new world record highs! Feb 28th DOW 14,500!
Until the treasury bubble pops, the DOW will creep to a new high, the Cad and Aussy housing bubbles will continue to inflate and Japan will be on its way to 500% debt to GDP. Its all about treasuies, nothing else.
All in on commodities maybe. But going short in the face of multiple tsunamis of liquidity in the coming years? balls out dude. Hope you can hang on long enough.
The Treausury bubble doesn't have to pop as the Fed can print money to buy Treausuries ad infinitum if it wants. The natural consequence of this is obviously inflation.
It doesn't matter, DOW can go to 16k shortly but it's only the play for banks and hedge funds or few percentages of population. The rest is squeezed out so much paying for everything more and more by the day that suddenly all those earnings for american cos will evaporate in the nick of a time. Thanks to good propaganda job people are just spending their savings expecting return of good times any moment, but that moment is already delayed by 4 years and the savings are almost gone. And suddenly there is no more money for movies, cable, iphones, burgers, gas, nails, vacations and other things. Earnings from Asia won't help them for long time because those pesky Chinese will produce their own version of everything.
Fake wealth to quote Peter Shiff.
Yes, absolutely all in. Sell your house, cars, and family and put all the money to short the freight train. The more short piling up, the faster the freight train melt-up continues.
Then print more ink. Then print more printers.
Print more printers......
Why not....with 3D printers you can.....
http://www.amazon.com/3D-Printer-Double-color-TurboCAD/dp/B005OKHX9C
"Drink the Kool-Aid...it's good!" - Jim Jones
Precisely why I am long commodites and taking physical delivery whenever possible. Natural gas is a buy, now to find a place for some big ass storage tanks.
My husband does not mind me locating my natural gas storage tanks underneath the swimming pool. Keeps them hidden from the mob when the time comes.
While it is difficult to find fault with keeping the natural gas storage underneath the pool. I suggest that you use the possesive pronoun with the gerund whenever. So, you would be more grammatically correct by saying: "My husband does not mind my locating my nat....
Just sayining...
Really? You're going to get that uptight that you're throwing out gerundal possessive coaxial widgets, yet you spell "saying" as "sayining?"
PS You forgot to end the quotation with a quotation mark, ass. Welcome to ZH.
I'm sure he likes to swim in dangerous places.
Morgan Stanley comes up with a chart containing "Isreal".
If MS can't even spell, I'm sure their math and statistics is even worse.
Time to dump MS.
I noticed that as well, but I was thinking that
1. They purposely misspelled it for their Taliban employee constituents.
2. It was done in jest, to say Isral = IS REAL.
I don't know which one, but it is a function of the employee demographics at MS.
Or maybe the stat guy is Al Qaeda, and he didn't want to spell it out correctly.
I noticed that as well, but I was thinking that
1. They purposely misspelled it for their Taliban employee constituents.
2. It was done in jest, to say Israel = IS REAL.
I don't know which one, but it is a function of the employee demographics at MS.
Or maybe the stat guy is Al Qaeda, and he didn't want to spell it out correctly.
In any case, what's your excuse for being an anti-semite?
-A. Foxman.
Yet Miners and PM's are still fast asleep.....
Maybe you are in the wrong miners?
Year To Date:
ATAC Resources: +19%
Avalon Rare Metals: +24%
Great Panther: +25%
Silver Standard: +15%
and my favourite TINKA: +85%
Not bad eh?
Yeah thats because anyone who got in before that got their head knocked off. All of those stocks where down 60% toward the end of the year
Nice hits
Seems the gamble associated w/those names paid nicely for you.
Whats the story with HL (up 3.69% today) 1 of my favs awhile back, never seen a co. more fucked with.
Misleading for the most part...ATAC is DOWN 65% from Aug of last year. 600MM of market cap "evaporated".
AVL was close to $10.00 in May 2011 and now its $3.00. Yea, those REE's are a sure thing, if you want to lose money. But if the liquidity comes they may just start the upward climb.
Paper promises...
It was a SWAP.
Let the printing presses roll. This will cause global warming because trees will be cut for the paper causing the building up of CO2. But the upside is lumberjacks will be busy for a while so that will cause employment growth. And now for something really ridiculous...
I'm a lumberjack and I'm ok....
Thank you Central Banks.
For these Lethal Injections.
Now I can go to sleep - finally.
The "Jack Kevorkians" of the financial world...
is this the regular everyday inflating/debasement...or do they know something we don't know? i wonder
COOL! Only 15 more trading days like today, and markets can bust thru all-time record bubbletop highs again! Thats all that REALLY matters!
What is up with the Stoxx 600 negative 10% close that is being called inaccurate and a technical issue.
Don't let me down Tyler.
Whats up with ANY index being down? Hell we're in full euphoria mode now! Yipee!
I wondered why printers are so cheap these days.
But, but, but...LTRO wasn´t QE!!
Seriously though, it was the least we could do. Big Ben hosed the world down good with his "Cash For Garbage" program, also known as QE1&2. Now it is our turn to do the same, just with garbagier collateral and somewhere in the distant future a payback of the money. Like that´s gonna happen...
I hope the Europolitiker are trading their rumors. They could have made enough to fund the whole Greek bailout by now just by flipping SPY options over the last few days frontrunning their news bombs.
Conjunction/Function, what is your function? Can you tell me how? How do I get to Sesame Street?
Seems we left Sesame Street and are now wandering around in Full Retardville.
Agree 100%
as the shadow of mordor creeps across the land
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wQ93NmXyRs
Just last week we had Japan...Great Britain..and the Greek Bailout...but it did not move gold and silver to much...only Apple stock...almost a trillion too...in one week
Say bye bye to making sense of it... We ain't in Kansas anymore.
Right, and how did Dorathy get home? She clicked her slippers. And what color were those slippers?
they were ruby red but the original srcipt called for them to be.... silver
Shirakawa was buying AAPL.
So! You have finally stumbled upon the genius of my 5 point plan for world domination! But you see, it is already too late. For my minion army of HFT bots and fiat-hags have already taken over the entire global world financial structure! You are too late Super Tyler! Muaa-Hahahahaha! Too late you silly fool! Already I have picked men in the highest places waiting for the word, the word which means we seize all control of the world stage. And you -- you pitiful but useful idiot -- have been an incalculable aid! Oh yes! Here, I will explain. But wait I must first activate my globo-scopic radio dome so all the world can hear me as I say -- hold on I tried this just a moment ago and it -- ah yes see there it is working -- so all the world can hear me say to you foolish Tyler and the whole world that I the terrible Blu -- yes it is a silly name but I'm working on that -- that I have complete control of all aspects of your pitiful human lives going forward! You must and you will bow to my every wish! Muaaa-hahahahahaaa! And my first wish for all humanity and oh yes especially those freaks at Zerohedge -- my first wish is that you all stop staring at my tits!!
No wait. That is not my first wish. Dammit that was not it! Who wrote that on my notes?! I demand to know! Hey get away from my globo <sizzle><click><hummmmmmm...>
Gorzo the Mighty meets Dave Barry. Excellent!
Was this supposed to be news??? The market doesn't go from 6000 to 13k on retail money. It sure as hell doesn't break the past two bubble highs on real money.
we have been noting this for many moons, now
most recently, some of us were discussing exactly this earlier today:
"Lehman 2.0" Imminent Warns John TaylorL0L!!! who was it started those pernicious rumorZ about "stealth" QE? jimWillie, maybe?
The Europonzi will implode during the next moon cycle, speaking of moons.
So let me get this straight, if A = 0, and A * .01 = 0, still A = 0.
Or put it this way, If I steal 2 Billion USD, but USD = 0, then I haven't stolen anything.
Mazeltov B!tchez.
No ALGO's allowed.
Now that the banks have gotten the liquidity injection. Can we now expect the Greece deal to 'suddenly' fall apart once again?
If this Greek deal is as stated and the debasement continues it is no wonder that the banks again need to be downgraded because everything they hold in the form of bonds is worth less by the debasement. But it's not as if they report the 'real numbers' anyway. Rally on homes.
Was thinking about selling ARTQX and buying PTTRX in our 401K today. *ponders* Will be keeping UMBMX and BCSIX for stocks.
I mention this because PTTRX has all that good Fannie Mae MBS garbage in it a.k.a. Ben Bernanke's charity.
Dollars dollars everywhere but not an extra one for me.
Race ya to the bottom!
To think, there are people who still believe the equity markets are going to crash.
Uh-huh. The Pittsburgh Pirates have a better chance of meeting God after winning the World Series this year than that happening.
If nearly three years of a relentless grind up in equities isn't enough to convince you otherwise, what will?
They will NEVER quit printing (physically or electronically) and you all know it.
If you are in paper gold, is Sprott PHYS any better than GLD???
Guess no one here is in paper gold. (That's a hint.)
you almost get it; this is why bernanke fails in the end; stuck with the dollar every one else will out devalue ben especially when the euro goes; then dollar up every thing else feces even gold
"[US stock market] where the bulk of global liquidity has concentrated."
If that is true then HFT must have gone to sleep because volume is down in 2012. But maybe it has held the market up when everyone has had reason to sell out.
How does the money get from the FED into the stock market?
Is there explicit evidence that money is moving along those channels?
I would like to see the particulars.
BUY! BUY! BUY! I tells ya, get in on the ground floor, before it's too late! Good names, like American Can, AT&T, Radio, Steel, you can't lose! Dividends, security for your family, for your old age. How about some Gold Bonds? Backed by the full faith and credit of Schlansky's Curb Market, outside of the candy store at Broadway and Wall? Good, solid investment. Why, things are coming up roses, don't sell the U.S.A. short! Peace in our time, peace and prosperity. Don't be a fool, jump in NOW. You'll be kicking yourself if you don't. If you do, you'll be snug as a bug in a rug, what with a new Oakland, a superheterodyne radio, some new lampshades with little frills on them for the Missus, and a little place on Miami Beach!
Goll darn that seems mighty generous. Miami Beach! Well I al'ays did wanted to go thar some o' these days, yezzer.
Well that high-volume 'correction' lasted a little more than 24 hours by my calculation. In robotrader's terminology that's world record duration for 2012! Now back to your regular Weimar programming ...
"I've been asked to speak on the theme of Roman history, particularly the problem of inflation and its impact. My analysis is based on the premise that monetary policy cannot be studied, or understood, in isolation from the overall policies of the state.
Monetary, fiscal, military, political, and economic issues are all very much intertwined. And they are all so intertwined because any state normally seeks to monopolize the supply of money within its own territory.
Monetary policy therefore always serves, even if it serves badly, the perceived needs of the rulers of the state. If it also happens to enhance the prosperity and progress of the masses of the people, that is a secondary benefit; but its first aim is to serve the needs of the rulers, not the ruled. This point is central, I believe, to an understanding of the course of monetary policy in the late Roman Empire."
-from Professor Joseph Peden's lecture "Inflation and the Fall of the Roman Empire"
Got paradigm ending parallels, bitchez???
Kool Name/ Battle Star Galactica. NICE!
we are all descendants of the roman army
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
...hmmm, Chart Tsunamis and Earthquake Generated Tsunamis at the same time
as in the
Days of Noah
The only thing missing is a war with
...oh, oops.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V3FnpaWQJO0
Was it George Orwell who said they always come for you at night?
Maybe it was in the Nazi documentary I recently watched. I can't remember.
flooding is coming from deflationary forces, and the worlds printing press cant keep up fast enough................print a billion, lose a billion, print a billion, lose a billion, print a billion, lose a billion...................hyperinflation will never happen....................