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Whitney Tilson Down 0.6% In November, Down 25% For The Year; Loses 21.4% On NFLX

Tyler Durden's picture





 

When at first you cover a soaring knife near its all time high, try, try again to catch it on the way down. And if you are Whitney Tilson, this is precisely what you do. The fund which is now down 25% YTD has lost 21.4% on its second round Netflix investment, something which Zero Hedge readers were on the other side of for the entire 50% pick in one month. But heaven forbid you learn a lesson: "A couple of weeks ago we sent you an article we published entitled “Why We’re Long Netflix and Short Green Mountain Coffee Roasters,” which is attached in Appendix B. Since then, both stocks have moved against us, making them even more attractive in our opinion." Lordy...

From Tilson:

Our fund fell 0.6% in November vs. -0.2% for the S&P 500, +1.2% for the Dow and -2.3% for the Nasdaq.  Year to date, it’s down 25.0% vs. +1.1% for the S&P 500, +6.7% for the Dow and -0.5% for the Nasdaq.

 

On the long side, our three winners of note were Grupo Prisa (B shares) (18.9%), Iridium (stock 11.8% and warrants 4.0%), and AB InBev (8.2%).  These gains were more than offset by Netflix (-21.4%), Sears Canada (-16.7%), Citigroup (-13.0%), Goldman Sachs (-12.5%), and dELiA*s (-10.7%).

 

Our short book did well during the month and is now in the black on the year (meaning that all of our losses are on the long side).  Our biggest winners in November were Career Education (-56.2%), Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (-19.4%), Nokia (-14.0%), Lululemon (-12.0%), ITT Educational Services (-11.3%), and Salesforce.com (-11.1%).  Our only loser of note was InterOil (+15.1%).
 
In the rest of our letter (attached), we discuss Iridium, Grupo Prisa, Netflix, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, and InterOil.
 
Happy holidays and new year!
 
Sincerely yours,
 
Whitney Tilson

Full letter:

 

 


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Fri, 12/16/2011 - 14:23 | Link to Comment strannick
strannick's picture

And next month they will be even MORE attractive, and then downright beautiful the month after that...

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 14:31 | Link to Comment Chuck Bone
Chuck Bone's picture

Cramer actually said on his show earlier this week that he "likes to buy on the way down." I turned on the TV earlier this week and just caught him saying that on his show. 

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 14:23 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

well, you have to admire his conviction...........right?

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 14:25 | Link to Comment strannick
strannick's picture

If not admire it, at least marvel at it.

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 14:27 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

funny

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 14:56 | Link to Comment dingos8me
dingos8me's picture

maybe... but nowhere near as much as I'll admire Corzine's conviction.

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 14:24 | Link to Comment YouGottaBeKidding
YouGottaBeKidding's picture

"Thank you for your continued confidence....?" Really?  GTFO, seriously GTFO.

 

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 14:55 | Link to Comment ABG LINE
ABG LINE's picture

LoL!

 

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 14:26 | Link to Comment citrine
citrine's picture

Since then, both stocks have moved against us, making them even more attractive in our opinion.

Looks like love to me....

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 15:25 | Link to Comment Sardonicus
Sardonicus's picture

yeah love at first sight.

He needs new glasses.  This is what I see.

http://snakeoilemporium.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341cd50853ef010536a05593970...

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 14:30 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

zynga now at $9.30--must have been a tilson special of the week...........

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 14:44 | Link to Comment Sardonicus
Sardonicus's picture

and damn near the whole 100 million share float has traded

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 14:52 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

now 9.02..........

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 14:31 | Link to Comment I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

just another hedge fund manager with bad ideas and even worse timing, pissing 2% of your money away

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 14:33 | Link to Comment strannick
strannick's picture

Exactamundo. The difference between them and retail us, is that we cant collect fees.

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 14:36 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

And getting paid to do so. Great work, if you can get it.

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 17:49 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

Whitney is another short bus riding Ivy League hedge fund manager.  Why is it that guys like Hugh Hendry and Kyle Bass did not attend Ivy League schools? 

James Chanos graduated from Yale and Ray Dalio got his MBA from Harvard but they came from fairly working class backgrounds.  These top guys really do their homework. 

As compared to con artist Paulson who was front running for Goldman.  Or the Dem scumbag Jon Corzine who just loots anything he touches. 

Most of the rest of the hedge fund managers are losers with a few exceptions.

 

Sat, 12/17/2011 - 19:15 | Link to Comment halflink123
halflink123's picture

Freddie-WTF are you talking about? Chanos is a grade A tool.  Chanos hasn't gotten anything right lately.

These guys are all tools to varying degrees. 

Heads up to Bass for not being an Ivy, and also to Paulson, not for the Harvard, but for the other school he attended.

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 14:33 | Link to Comment Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

looks like 2% doesnt get you what it used to

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 14:35 | Link to Comment LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

Whitney Tilson's letter should read:

"Well if I were a full fledged masochist and I sawed my left leg off you'd think maybe I'd finally learned my lesson.

But nope, here I am again with the saw, my crutches cast aside, staring in loving fascination at my right intact leg."

"Except its your legs, folks.  I don't get it, but you volunteered."

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 14:39 | Link to Comment Burgess Shale
Burgess Shale's picture

It's a game of both skill and luck.  And you better stay humble, lest the Gods smite thee.

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 14:46 | Link to Comment AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Zuckerman better start the search for a new tenant immediately.

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 14:50 | Link to Comment Smokey1
Smokey1's picture

Instead of fantasizing about a threesome with Warren Buffett and Charles Munger, Tilson needs to focus more on running his fund.

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 14:55 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Tilson portfolio enjoys a spectacular year compared to Robos.

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 15:01 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

Is that letter for real or a Christmas spoof. My goodness.

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 21:21 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

Lordy...

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 15:10 | Link to Comment onebir
onebir's picture

Perhaps Einhorn (vociferously short re Green Mountain like ) also deserves an honourable mention here.

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 15:29 | Link to Comment midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

Goldman Sachs?

Laugh

My

Ass

Off!

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 15:59 | Link to Comment taniquetil
taniquetil's picture

Sir, I don't think you quite understand how market manipulation works.

 

You have have to go long, and THEN recommend the stock. It doesn't work so well the other way around.

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 16:21 | Link to Comment Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Clearly this man is a compulsive gambler.

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 16:51 | Link to Comment Falcon15
Falcon15's picture

Aaaaaaand Robotard is conspicuously absent. He must have been kicked out of his mom's basement.

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 16:36 | Link to Comment Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Tilson, you aint Mutha Fucka Jones, biatch! 

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 16:52 | Link to Comment wretch
wretch's picture

To be honest, we here at ZH use the same logic with PMs: BTFD.  It's just a matter of what you're buying.

Fri, 12/16/2011 - 18:20 | Link to Comment Dust in the wheel
Dust in the wheel's picture

It is amazing that since you pointed out Tilson’s negative since inception from his September 2011 letter to partners where he clearly states the funds inception was July 2004.  Now he thinks he can fool people into believing he has a great long term record with 1999 inception numbers.  Did not Glenn Tongue join Tilson in 2004?  Hence the T2.  Why can he use unaudited numbers from before T2 was formed?  Hello SEC.

Sat, 12/17/2011 - 10:22 | Link to Comment loub215
loub215's picture

GMCR - Better late than never... 50% put profit in 7 days... didn't buy enough! perhaps Whitney's problem is of timing, not thesis...

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