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A Whole Lot Of Nothing, So Far
From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors
A Whole Lot Of Nothing, So Far
Credit indices are virtually unchanged in Europe and here.
Stocks futures are virutally unchanged in Europe and here.
I still see no evidence that the ECB has redeemed its old bonds and received new bonds (the amount outstanding on old bonds should show up as being reduced once the exchange is done - it is is probably just that the trade hasn't settled, though with CAC documentation proceed in Greece, it would be curious to see what happens if the ECB's exchange isn't done when the CAC is implemented).
Use of the CAC and a CDS Credit Event appear to be the most likely outcome, though I have not seen an official termsheet for the PSI. It seems like there will be 20 bonds with staggered maturity (according to the latest on the IIF website, which contradicts some other press releases that indicated it would be one amortizing bond).
The correlation between Euro and stocks continues to decrease, with a strong move in Euro today do nothing for stocks.
Does Apple do something with its cash hoard today? Does that do anything for the markets? Hard to look at the Apple price chart and become convinced that there is a lot more room to run.
Maybe we will get a surprise in jobless claims, but somehow I doubt that it will be a positive one.
So anyways, so far a whole lot of nothing, for a change.
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"Speculators who feel confident in their ability to time an exit are welcome to speculate. We are not speculators, and as much data as I've examined over my lifetime, I remain entirely unconvinced that such refined exits are possible. For our part, we remain defensive here. The good news, however, is that the potential for large market drawdowns also opens up the potential for significant changes in the set of investment opportunities available to us. We are eager to act on those opportunities, in proportion to the expected return/risk possibilities that emerge. Presently, the investment opportunity set remains one of the most unfavorable in history - we estimate a 4.4% annual total return for the S&P 500 over the coming decade (nominal), corporate bond yields are now at just 3.3%, the 30-year Treasury yield is at 3.2%, the 10-year Treasury yield is at 2.0%, and Treasury bill yields are at 0.1%. The Fed has been a remarkable success at starving investors of all reasonable return for the risk they are accepting, which is likely to badly misallocate capital in the process. The problem is that with valuations at present levels, the risk that investors face is greater, not less."
I love this guy.
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc120220.htm
Why would anyone trade in that?
I would have monkeys pick my nose first.
Hussman is sharp, there's no doubt about it.
The market has the vital signs of dark matter.
While there is 'nothing' going on, I'd like to thank Tyler and the crew for keeping us up to date.
Long gold, guns and grain.
Canned goods and shotguns asset class.
...but which ETF do you buy? The beans and 870s or the creamed corned and mossbergs ETF?
both awful choices...i'm long spam and benellis
I'll give you spam...but I have complete faith my 870 will save me from the coming zombie invasion. Maybe not zombies and werewolves, but if it's just zombies - I'm good to go.
"I still see no evidence that the ECB has redeemed its old bonds and received new bonds (the amount outstanding on old bonds should show up as being reduced once the exchange is done - it is is probably just that the trade hasn't settled, though with CAC documentation proceed in Greece, it would be curious to see what happens if the ECB's exchange isn't done when the CAC is implemented)."
It's so quaint that he feels there is still a rule of law that would matter whether these bonds were formally exchanged or not. Has he paid any attention to what these gov'ts are doing with contracts? It doesn't matter one whit what has been recorded or not when the CAC occurs. The EU will do as it pleases and the paperwork can catch up whenever they get around to it.
To paraphrase a former Director of the CIA
... Don't worry. The American people don't read.
Nothing is better than chaos...
Sign me up for ameggeddon and chaos, thanks.
Calm before the storm...
They are just going to keep printing. Otherwise the CDS will trigger. Don't believe the voluntary thing or the ECB switch, that will not happen, ever. pure propaganda to keep the currencies viable for another day.
No news = good news
crates of fake bonds, crates of fake cash, crates of fake hope - all nothing - tons and tons of it
hmmm...aren't 'real' bonds, cash and hope fake anyway? so if they are fake fake bonds and cash does that make them real?
it is indeed nothing!
http://www.jinrongbaike.com/
http://www.cnhedge.com/