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Why Did The BLS Leak Initial Claims Data 15 Minutes Early?

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Today, at 8:21 am, 9 minutes before the official BLS claims release, we received an update from Stone McCarthy which had a rather starting subject line: "Claims Out Early 361,000 -6,000." The email body essentually said what everone would find out was precisely the case subsequently: "Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance fell 6K to a level of 361,000 for the week ending August 4th. The prior week's level was revised to 367K (previously 365K). SMRA's estimate anticipated a level of 365K for last week's claims. The Bloomberg survey's median estimate was 370K, and individual estimates ranged from 359K to 385K..."  We noted this at the time. Subsequently, Bloomberg confirmed all of this: "Jobless claims data were available on Labor Dept. website about 15 minutes before scheduled 8:30am release today, Stone & McCarthy Research Associates economic analyst Terry Sheehan says." Now aside from the fact that SMRA should be commended for chacking the DOL.gov website early and getting a critical advance look at today's most important data point, we have some questions:

  • Who broke the embargo and why?
  • Who else had even earlier advance access to the data?
  • Why did the BLS have this glitch?
  • And most importantly, especially in light of the recent scandal about the BLS leaking data selectively early, just how is the BLS policing itself from such erroneous data releases, and if the answer is non-existant, can the BLS announce whether it has preferential "huddle" agreements with anyone when it comes to leaking data as it did today?

Because we personally know at least one or two algos that would have loved to respond to the data had it hit Bloomberg's flashing red headline feed 15 minutes early.

 


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Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:14 | Link to Comment diogeneslaertius
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  • Who else had even earlier advance access to the data?
Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:20 | Link to Comment HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

We all know that the BLS had more important stuff to do by 8:30. The Olympics are on after all. Drop that stuff off early and get back in front of the big-screen to watch taekwondo or hammer throw or something.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:23 | Link to Comment idea_hamster
idea_hamster's picture

FWIW, like Nixon said, "When the [BLS] does it, that means it isn't [a leak]."

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:28 | Link to Comment Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

BLS = Bowel Leakage Syndrome

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:30 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

Bullshit Leak Service?

It's not like their data means anything.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 11:08 | Link to Comment gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

SHOCKED... I tell ya.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 12:09 | Link to Comment BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

The Bureau of Lies & Stories

Anyone that believes one iota of their data is dumber than an earthworm

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 19:20 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:22 | Link to Comment idea_hamster
idea_hamster's picture

It's just a con.

Next time, the suckers will pile in at 8:15 and then the "real" number will be "corrected" at 8:30, with the comensurate quota of faces ripped off, chumps dragged off the trading floor feet first, and GS smug chuckle barely audible over the squawking.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:56 | Link to Comment midtowng
midtowng's picture

I can't believe that the government is allowing Wall Street insiders early leaks of critical data. That would be illegal and immoral. [/snark]

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:15 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

Well we all KNOW you can´t make money at the PROP desks anymore..so now they have to find other ways to WIN....cheating comes to my mind....

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 11:02 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Cheating worked for Captain Kirk. Maybe there's a lesson to be learned here.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:17 | Link to Comment holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

This is a circus without the tent. What an embarrassment the status quo is becoming.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:55 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Ringling Bros is suing for degrading the term circus by using in context to the government and market.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:17 | Link to Comment govttrader
govttrader's picture

Since the market didn't really react to this data...who cares!!!

http://govttrader.blogspot.com/

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:20 | Link to Comment absente reo
absente reo's picture

Really, do I have to explain?  Oh, okay then.  We care because if it happens once, it can happen again, and next time it happens, it could be a far more significant number.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:59 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

 

 

really?  "govttrader" is your name?  Why don't you just go ahead and call yourself troll-trollison?  It's that obvoius.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 11:12 | Link to Comment gmrpeabody
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ROFLMAO....

Well played, sir!

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:18 | Link to Comment doc_in_the_house
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spx @ 1404

eur @ 1.23 (was below 1.23 an hour ago.

Just riding my spx futures SHORTS...avg price 1401 and eur shorts avg price 1.24

what can i say the currency market is more rational than the lemmings chase the casino stock market...but it won't remain Irrational for long...

gimme spx sub 1100 and eur sub 1.10 = me cover

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/welcome-republic-federal-reserve-please-present-your-papers#comment-2687758

 

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:31 | Link to Comment Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

gimme sub 1100 spx and its hookers and blow time

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:34 | Link to Comment HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

Hello, fellow holder of SDS. When party time comes, I'll see you at the appointed place.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:37 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

the urge to diverge?

treasuries on the dump w/ dollar on the pump?

which is the tail?  which is the dog?

stay tooned!

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 11:16 | Link to Comment gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

stay tooned!

Classic, slewie. Car-tooned?

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 12:36 | Link to Comment CCanuck
CCanuck's picture

I want you to cover....your head with a plastic bag.

 

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 12:51 | Link to Comment Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:19 | Link to Comment insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Senators and Reps are on vacation.  They need the data early so they can front run the market and still make their tee times because as you know, they are exempt from insider trading laws.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:42 | Link to Comment Bob
Bob's picture

That problem got too much attention, so they had to make a pretense of solving it:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57409314-503544/obama-signs-stock...

Note that Cantor, whose staff did the final writing, neglected to include spouses and families in the reporting requirement, which, when outed, he explained as another big oops, "honest mistake."

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:19 | Link to Comment Jlmadyson
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Because they are bullshitters that's why.

But, but, but military grade security.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:19 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
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Goldman's robots probably got an early jump on the skimming.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:30 | Link to Comment doc_in_the_house
doc_in_the_house's picture

as i've said before

rule #1 = the INSIDERS always know before...they just have to pay their "bribing fees" to the DEMON-RATS democrats.

they just have to pay their political donations to odummernomics, stupidnomics, RAPE-O-nomics!

the early bls BS didn't affect me...i'm short as of last week and this week, spx shorts avg price = 1401..its now @ 1404 = yaaaAAAWN.

my eur short avg price = 1.24.....its now @ 1.23.....but, but last week garbage of sac (GS)...SAC of FECAL GARBAGE, GS said eur to 1.30 !!! = i ain't NO MUPPET !!

i covered @ 1.216 BEFORE the GS call came out in ZH (i posted this in RT).....then over the subsequent days I shorted @ 1.237 and 1.242 (posted this in RT)...rode and rode...its now @ 1.23..there you go sac of wasteful garbage !!!!!

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 12:35 | Link to Comment CCanuck
CCanuck's picture

Hey Doc, I'm tired of hearing about your short position, again, and again, and again.

Do us a favor, go give yourself a shot of something that will put you to sleep for awhile, like a year or two.

We will all aknowledge your the best anti-muppet if you do!

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 13:03 | Link to Comment doc_in_the_house
doc_in_the_house's picture

U go to sleep u muppet

don't worry your money is in safe hands with the Garbage of Sac, GS (Sac of fecal garbage GS)

I will come back when i cover my shorts at a MAJOR PROFIT....and i will gloat.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:20 | Link to Comment rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

I'm sure it was algo related. It all comes down to them and their friends making money and everyone else getting fucked. That's all that matters.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:22 | Link to Comment rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

And btw stooping this low is just proof to me of how thin it is out there. Can't make money by the rules? Then let's don't follow the rules. I guess you could say somethings never change.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:25 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Rule # 1 from the sociopath's handbook.

Be first, be smarter or cheat. And sometimes do all three.

 

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:22 | Link to Comment khakuda
khakuda's picture

Government worker's motto:  Get it out early, go home early and start the weekend on Thursday.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 11:42 | Link to Comment Landrew
Landrew's picture

You sir are just another Cock brother TROLL! In case you forgot most of our government workers are MILITARY and I take offense!

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 13:07 | Link to Comment khakuda
khakuda's picture

I'm sorry.  I didn't realize the BLS and Dept. of Labor was staffed by military personnel.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:22 | Link to Comment spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

They always post it early, but you only can see it with the special subscription package. It then is visible to the rest of the market at the appropriate time. Looks like a simple programming error.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:22 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Markets don't move, they are moved.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:23 | Link to Comment JMT
JMT's picture

Job openings are at a 4 year high. Restaurants, bars & stores are packed (at least this area -- greater Boston) on a freaking Tuesday night and hotel occupancy rates are at a record high. Hard to believe that the job market isn't better than anytime in the past 2 years. Also on the radio, I keep hearing about at least 200,000 jobs in this state alone (Mass) that are unfilled because there are no qualified applicants

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:30 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

no qualified applicants? really? no able bodied individuals to be trained at mcdonalds u? or at starbucks barista school where you learn to work the delicate art of a fully automated espresso machine.......push a button and waaalaaa!!!....over-roasted espresso.........????????? shirley you jest..................................

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:33 | Link to Comment Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Thats because there are nothing but fat asses out there with Women's Studies degrees who have never held a job in their life.  They don't even know how to wash dishes.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 11:09 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Why get a job when it probably pays less than one can get from the government teat? Especially now, in the summertime. The beaches on Cape Cod are so close in your area and are so enticing...

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 12:10 | Link to Comment Thisson
Thisson's picture

Hmmm, it couldn't have anything to do with the college education bubble, now could it? /sarcasm

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:23 | Link to Comment JMT
JMT's picture

Job openings are at a 4 year high. Restaurants, bars & stores are packed (at least this area -- greater Boston) on a freaking Tuesday night and hotel occupancy rates are at a record high. Hard to believe that the job market isn't better than anytime in the past 2 years. Also on the radio, I keep hearing about at least 200,000 jobs in this state alone (Mass) that are unfilled because there are no qualified applicants

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 11:06 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

Do you know what there is in Boston, in a higher percentage than almost anywhere else in the nation?

College students getting huge government loans, and overpaid college professors and administrators that reap the benefits of the massive loans.

Running a local economy on borrowed money. How can that not work?

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 11:16 | Link to Comment chubbar
chubbar's picture

I was at a party last week and started up a conversation with a guy who turned out to be a commercial architect. According to him there is a "miniboom" going on in the commercial rehab/buildout industry. Claims there are many cranes to be seen on the Boston downtown area. I haven't been able to verify any of those assertions but I found it interesting nonetheless.

 

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:23 | Link to Comment larz
larz's picture

Im jealous

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:24 | Link to Comment Brother Sebastian
Brother Sebastian's picture

The bastards who manipulate the indexes knew two days ago what the numbers were. 

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:34 | Link to Comment Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

They're doing any fooking thing to drive this sucka to 14K brah.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:36 | Link to Comment Jlmadyson
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US Mortgage Delinquencies Rise For First Time In A Year BBG

The housing market continues the longest bottom in the history of the country boys and girls.

Bottoming, bottoming and more bottoming.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 13:25 | Link to Comment BooMushroom
BooMushroom's picture

Right now, a new mortgage is a liability at ANY price. Especially in a blue state.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:38 | Link to Comment jtmo3
jtmo3's picture

Bureau of Lying Shits

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 10:45 | Link to Comment Joe-the-Farmer
Joe-the-Farmer's picture

I know Dr. Ray Stone pretty well. He's told me stories about how the BLS/DoL have accidentally published the data ahead of time. He even called them once and said "The data is available to the public, maybe you should go ahead and officially release it. We are going to use it." Fairly comical. Wouldn't call SMRA an "inside track" firm, just taking advantage of a fumbling and corrupt government bureaucracy.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 12:11 | Link to Comment Thisson
Thisson's picture

Checking the web page isn't exactly "taking advantage" ... just sayin'

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 11:32 | Link to Comment kiwione
kiwione's picture

So much for the attempts to fix it (from three weeks or so ago):

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/17/business/labor-dept-tightens-security-...

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 11:39 | Link to Comment analyzer_66
analyzer_66's picture

BLS - Bureau of Lesions and Sores

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 11:58 | Link to Comment Antifaschistische
Antifaschistische's picture

Jobless Claims should be on a BLS Dashboard and on the internet so we get real time claim information.   This is completely possible and the technology to do this is now decades old.   Waiting on "the report" is only for insiders to get the early leaks.

Thu, 08/09/2012 - 12:04 | Link to Comment econprof70
econprof70's picture

Just to clarify for everyone, jobless claims data aren't published by the BLS, they are displayed on the Department of Labor website.  I've often seen them miss the 8:30AM deadline by up to 15 minutes, just surprised that they actually got it in early this time!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!