Why The ECB May Have A 'Slight' Credibility Problem

Tyler Durden's picture


ECB head Jean-Claude Trichet: July 27, 2011:

"Speculating on Greece defaulting is a certain way of losing out. Such a speculation would be a sure-fire way of losing money given the decisions taken last Thursday"

And what happened next to Greek bond yields (and inversely, Greek bond prices):

-> Those who 'speculated on Greece defaulting made a non-losing 70%+ return'. Whatever happened to never bet against central banks?

Fast forward:

ECB head Mario Draghi, July 26, 2012:

"Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.”

We will provide an update of how the euro fared in the aftermath of this statement, sometime around the end of July 2013. We have a feeling betting against the ECB's credibility will once again generate 70%+ returns.

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Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:21 | 2661840 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



It hardly shows though.


Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:30 | 2661860 malikai
malikai's picture

Inverted bubble!

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:32 | 2661864 battle axe
battle axe's picture

I would say F%cking Default already, but it is like yelling in a hurricane, it does no good. 

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:35 | 2661873 Short Memories
Short Memories's picture

All the individuals at the central banks are also betting against the central banks so it's all good!

no one actually thinks or wants them to succeed except the speculators that haven't got with the game yet

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:55 | 2661910 notbot
notbot's picture

Just a flesh wound.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 09:02 | 2661929 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



It was just his brain......no problem.


Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:56 | 2661913 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Save your breath, it's the Pigs I see flying...

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:20 | 2661841 wonderatitall
wonderatitall's picture

hey look, a cow


Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:22 | 2661844 malikai
malikai's picture

I see magic mushrooms growing.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:22 | 2661848 EL INDIO
EL INDIO's picture

"...And believe me...”


You know somebody is lying when he says believe me.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:25 | 2661854 malikai
malikai's picture

Other winners:

"To tell you the truth.."

"I mean it when I say.."

"We will never.."

"It always goes.."

"I guarantee.."

And my personal favourite:

"Trust me.."

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:29 | 2661859 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



I, II, I, III, I..........believe me!


We're from the government....and we're here to help!


Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:39 | 2661884 machineh
machineh's picture

Jean-Clodhopper Trichet -- Europe's Greenspan!

Probably hatched from the same giant lizard egg ...

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:44 | 2661891 rwe2late
rwe2late's picture


Don't forget

"let me be clear"

which has been popular for a while.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:41 | 2662345 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

The real translation of the phrase "let me be clear" is that the 'leader' saying such is TRULY at a point of impotency but still trying to confuse the muppets of the world that they have power.


Mon, 07/30/2012 - 12:28 | 2662513 Killer the Buzzard
Killer the Buzzard's picture

"Let there be no mistake....."

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:27 | 2661858 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

I (slightly) disagree. politicians lie (or not). central bankers bluff (or not). now, the real question is if the "markets" are going to test this bluff or not. and if "they" do, who is coming out of it with a bloody nose.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:33 | 2661866 milanitaly
milanitaly's picture

This is the real question.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 09:24 | 2661974 GERxit
GERxit's picture

"...And believe me...”

 You know somebody is lying when he says believe me.



Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:23 | 2661849 Seorse Gorog fr...
Seorse Gorog from that Quantum Entanglement Fund. alright_.-'s picture

I believe you, Mario. I believe.


Just remember to keep the ricevuta.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:23 | 2661850 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"2008 writ large." move along.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:27 | 2661857 milanitaly
milanitaly's picture

Mmmmmm ........ but I will wait for the nein is nein with you.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:31 | 2661862 AssFire
AssFire's picture

3 weeks Greeks... lets see what happens Aug 20th. Curious loansharks want to know.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 12:29 | 2662515 Killer the Buzzard
Killer the Buzzard's picture

+100 for the best username and avatar on ZH.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:34 | 2661869 hedgeisforpussies
hedgeisforpussies's picture

a week before russian default in 1998, yeltsin came out and said that RUSSIA WILL NEVER DEFAULT!!! 

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:37 | 2661882 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

LTCM believed them as well, and received quite a nice bailout by blowing themselves up.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:34 | 2661871 fonzannoon
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Olympic fans attending Sunday’s football match between Great Britain and the United Arab Emirates at Wembley stadium were left hungry and thirsty as credit card machines failed to accept payments through one of the Games’ largest sponsors, Visa Inc.

Customers had no choice but to pay with cash, and those who had to withdraw money at the stadium reported extra long lines and wait times. Visa said that the failure was on Wembley stadium’s end, and not within its own system.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:43 | 2661889 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



failed to accept payments through one of the Games’ largest sponsors, Visa Inc.


For everything else there's Mastercard.......and obviously that falls into the category of everything else.


Mon, 07/30/2012 - 09:15 | 2661951 fredquimby
fredquimby's picture

One bank machine failing for two hours and the stadium/press/sheep are up in arms!!


I can't wait till power goes out for three days and ATM's are no functiona for three days too....


THEN the fun will really start.


Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:49 | 2662360 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

Amen, fredquimby.

...now entering the colliseum, the entitled class of whiner muppets... release the lions



Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:35 | 2661872 timbo_em
timbo_em's picture

Betting against eurocrats: while it might me be difficult to get the short-term timing right (esp when the 'free' markets react on hollow headlines), on the longer run it's a safe bet.

As soon as the ECB spends one more Euro on its SMP, one can expect German politicians demanding Draghi to resign and demanding the German government to take the ECB to the European Court of Justice. Popcorn weeks coming!

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:37 | 2661878 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

So you think the lifespan of the BS will take another 12 months like it did last time?

You know what?

Make it 6 months this time. Let's assume the lemmings will pick it up a bit faster this time...

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:40 | 2661879 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Shit. I have to wait until the middle of 2013 for the euro to blow up. I was hoping that would come much sooner.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:45 | 2661893 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Euro down this morning, gold follows in lockstep.


However ES has hardly backed off, which means ES priced in many Europe currencies is probably making new highs this morning.


Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:46 | 2661895 localpacific
localpacific's picture

Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors http://t.co/7G38HDsj - 

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:49 | 2661900 kaiten
kaiten's picture

ECB should borrow some credibility from FED. There´s plenty of it all around.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:52 | 2661903 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

The FED has credibility? No money velocity to speak of, even Ben is sweating.


Mon, 07/30/2012 - 08:57 | 2661920 Jason T
Jason T's picture

The disintegration contined and there was no power great enough to stop it.... 

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 09:16 | 2661956 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Off topic. Hey anyone in the gold and silver buying should beware. Last night on kitcos precious meatals site the gold lease rate for the one year and the six month were at like negative -.55 or so,and the chart did not show it but the data did......

This morning the gold lease rate chart still does not show this drop to negative ,but the data does,as it shows that the overnight increase is +1.0462,yet the one year rate shows  +.5245.

So therefore the drop to -.55 last night DID happen and Kitco will not show it on the chart as it is very visually noticeable.

Kitco is VERY DECIETFUL,and should be charged with Data Manipulation.

Ps Fuck you Jon.You fucking shill.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 09:18 | 2661959 knukles
knukles's picture

Greece already defaulted.
The terms of bond issues were changed penalizing holders.

What the fuck is everybody talking about?


GM defaulted.
Chrysler defaulted.

What does it take to get people to wake up?

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 09:34 | 2661993 larz
larz's picture

When does this government nonsense stop it is not funny

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 10:14 | 2662096 Snakeeyes
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