Why Launching The EFSF Means Career Suicide For Merkel And A German Political Crisis

Tyler Durden's picture

After disclosing first that the EFSF could end up amounting to anywhere between 36% and 133% of German GDP in the form of contingent liabilities, depending on whether or not France is downgraded from AAA and whether the EFSF is raised to its proper size of €3.5 trillion, we speculated that life for German chancellor is about to become a living hell as the realization that Germany is forced to rescue all of europe permeates political discussions. The FT now confirms that this is indeed the case, and could be coming to a head much faster than expected. From the FT: "Battle lines are being rapidly drawn up in the German Bundestag for what promises to be a bruising debate over the crisis measures to stabilise debt markets in the eurozone. Angela Merkel, the chancellor, and her finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble face a revolt among their own supporters in both the Christian Democratic Union and the Free Democratic Party, junior partner in the ruling coalition in Berlin, over the deal they agreed last month with their 16 eurozone partners in Brussels." Add this latest political uncertainty to the possibility of the EFSF being scuttled before it even launches in September to concerns over just how bad the reality in Italy is, and one can see why French CDS just hit a record, and Italian banks are being serially halted.

More from the FT:

The German government is also facing a highly critical press in the wake of the weekend decision by the European Central Bank to buy Italian and Spanish bonds, a move that was welcomed by Berlin, although it is opposed by the Bundesbank, Germany’s highly independent central bank, in Frankfurt.


The calls for an emergency party conference have come from the Hesse state branch of the CDU, and from the head of the party’s youth wing, Philipp Missfelder, who is a member of the party’s national executive.


In an interview with the mass circulation Bild newspaper on Tuesday, Mr Missfelder said he would call for an emergency party conference at the next meeting of the executive on August 22, if Italy were forced to seek help from the eurozone rescue fund.


“The party has a right to participate in such momentous decisions,” he said. But he left an escape route for the party, because Italy is technically not getting help from the EFSF rescue fund, but from the European Central Bank.

The bottom line will be a trade off between a political suicide for Merkel and a bailout of the euro.

Ms Merkel insists that she will deliver her majority in favour of the deal. If more than 21 supporters refused to back the deal, she would be forced to rely on the opposition SPD and Greens, both of whom are in favour. That would ensure German approval for the eurozone reform package, but it would be politically devastating for the chancellor not to be able to count on majority support from her own ranks, and could cause the government to fall.

Too bad CDS-quanto straddles are out of favor, because a German-Italian CDS/EUR FX fat tail blow up bet here would be one of the most profitable trades when all is said and done, as either German default risk surges or the euro is over.

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unky's picture

the other major party (SPD) also agrees to the bailouts (just recently 3 leading heads of the SPD assured a quick action is neccessary to bailout the PIIGS)... so it doesnt even matter who you vote

PY-129-20's picture

So what's your democracy worth? If it doesn't matter to vote anyway? We're talking about some serious stuff here. It's one thing not to be satisfied with political decsisions, but if people do not feel represented in their society - what will happen next? You know the answer.

I agree with you - it doesn't not matter if I will vote for SPD, CDU, GREENS, FDP or anybody else - and I will never vote for the LINKE (ULTRA-LEFTIST linked with communism) - so what's left? There is no German party on the right wing that could stand a chance in the election - and I am not talking here about "FREIHEIT" (German party) or NPD (which are linked to fascism).

Everybody is now very quiet, maybe angry but still watching how it unfolds. How do you think people will react if they realize that the game is lost and they have pissed away the wealth that was left in this country?

fajensen's picture

what will happen next? You know the answer.

They go out and bomb someone? Maybe the British rioters human rights are just about to be violated so "we" have to act and enforce an no fly zone and a complimentary NATO bombing campaing to neutralise the threat from the British police???

Rynak's picture

Ironically, the only significant party in germany, that has constantly critized how banking and debt is treated, as well as the economic structure of europe.... and which right now still demand defaults instead of endless bailouts..... are.....

...the socialists ("the left")


snowball777's picture

Not ironic at all, if you'd pull your head out of your propagandized ass and come up for some air. Socialists have always been in opposition to the vagaries of the private sector of which this is the largest and most glaringly obvious.

Rynak's picture

Damnit, can't do it right.... if i'm honest and "in your face", i get criticized for it.... and if i try to suggest something diplomatically, i'm seen as a propaganda junkie.


(Background: I have a track record on ZH of posts that criticize both, capitalists and individualists, as well as socialists, communists and collectivists. Bottom line: I'm in no camp at all)

snowball777's picture

Likewise...from my perspective, all of the 'factions' have important parts of the puzzle, but each and every one believes that they have the whole problem licked and won't entertain the 'other' sides' points. A huge mistake that.

Apologies for goin' rectal on you, but I'm really tired of the "if it's not laissez-faire 18th century, it's socialism" camp.

I see value in well-regulated capitalism (myth? perhaps) and value in the socialist public commons. Anachronistic, I guess.

Rynak's picture

Not really anarchronistic... it boils down to: Address generic things generally. Address individual things individually.

Plus, if we look at the two gigants among economic models, and we do not subscribe to factions, we may notice that both, free market capitalism as well as communism, are fundamentally flawed, because both are incapable of satisfying their own premises.

To take free market capitalism as an example: Among the premises is easy entry and exit to/from the market. In case of trading it also means that both, the seller and buyer can say "no".... after all, if one party cannot say no, the other party can force whatever conditions (i.e. price) it wants.

However..... the private sector alone cannot satisfy this requirement, when it comes to the job market: Peoples life depends on a job, so here we have the situation that indeed one of both parties cannot just say "no", and thus the other party gets to set the conditions. In current models, this defect then is hackfixed, via unemployment entitlements.... which however obviously does not fix the anomaly at all, but just compensates it by throwing money at it.

snowball777's picture

True. It also doesn't deal well with failures to map the model to the real world (e.g. the inflexibility of demand for health care...or massive information asymmetry). Communism totally fails to address efficiency of allocation, instead deferring to a totalitarian arbiter and we know how that generally plays out.

But markets are useful tools...and avoiding the trap of thinking that our lives are completely independent of each other is a useful perspective as well, but rationality makes for boring TV so we get what 'sells' to the masses instead.

It's tempting to distill the world down to "rich people should pay" or "poor people are lazy" or "we just need to <your narrow-minded ideological slant here>", but ignorance is only bliss in fairy tales and the externalities and manipulation don't go away no matter how tightly we close our eyes.

And that's before we even address the problem of using the tools without regard to context...UE insurance can act as a smoothing agent for the cyclicality of capitalism (stores can't tell welfare dollars from earned ones after all), but it has limits that need to be recognized including the fact that it doesn't address the underlying dysfunction like a liquidity trap or shifting age demographics.

Thanks for a stimulating conversation...much more rewarding than screaming at people who would prefer to affix labels than think.

Rynak's picture

You're welcome :) And.... full agreement with every single sentence of your post.

fraud-fed's picture

In current models, this defect then is hackfixed, via unemployment entitlements.... which however obviously does not fix the anomaly at all, but just compensates it by throwing money at it.

Well put! I like systemic analyses rather than the usual left-vs-right quarrel.


monopoly's picture

What a freaking mess. And the futures plunge, again. Impossible markets, here and abroad.
Gold, silver, miners and no shorts, that is it for me. When does Bernank get indicted?

snowball777's picture

When you and 278 friends get elected (which is to say: never).

disabledvet's picture

right now the political crisis appears to be happening everywhere else but there. That's what having your country wiped off the map twice in one century does. It puts things in persepective. I'd be more worried about the neighbors myself.

SheepDog-One's picture

So its 'You can save Europe, Merkel....well for 24-48 hours anyway, if you just put this noose around your neck and jump off the castle parapet'.

DosZap's picture

Merkel has had a suicide wish for months.

She should have flipped them off 12 mos ago.

She deserves what she gets...............She is Germany's Bernanke,and Obama rolled into one.

GoldBricker's picture

Merkel is not a fool, she just doesn't represent German voters. She represents another group, which doesn't bother to vote and is mostly non-German. When she leaves office she'll be rewarded for a job well done: talk tough, but give in every time. Same sort of theater as the debt-ceiling stuff in the US.

When austerity comes to Germany and pensions are reduced, hers will be untouched, as will that of Kohl, Chirac, Sarkozy, Trichet, and all the other employees who pretend to represent national voters and interests.

caconhma's picture

No, Merkel is more like Gorbachev of the former Soviet Union.

As for a German economic miracle, this will be gone in no time. Like the Weimar republic leaders, she is driving Germany to a poor house with a major civil unrest to follow.

Merkel is a very "good friend" of Israel and a puppet of Jewish-controlled "German" banking system.



I love the "German democracy" without the Freedom of Speech.



Ancona's picture

The Union is doomed, they just refuse to accept reality. Germany cannot afford to bail out Italy and Spain, just as the U.S. cannot afford to bail out the banks again.

The math really is that simple.

slaughterer's picture

Good phrase: "bruising debate" in the Bundestag--one that will make the brinkmanship and hostage-taking in the debt ceiling deal look mild by comparison.  Next catalyst down. 

Everybodys All American's picture

Re-issued Deutsche Mark and an implosion of the Euro can't be far off.

SheepDog-One's picture

'OK we have to get this water out of the Titanic before she goes under! Uh....who's REAL thirsty? Anyone...'?

slaughterer's picture

"a German-Italian CDS/EUR FX fat tail blow up bet"--go for it, I am sure the Squid and the Morgue already have. 

slaughterer's picture

That part about the Bild Zeitung coverage of the Hesse CDU party’s youth wing head Philipp Missfelder was not too important, but the part about whether Merkel can deliver the majority vote for the ESFS without the government falling is critical.  

LookingWithAmazement's picture

So the Germans will vote Merkel away in the near future. And who will they vote for then? Yes, for the europhiles of SPD and the Green Party! Joschka Fisher to be Bundeskanzler. The Germans are gonna bleed - self-chosen.

slaughterer's picture

Joshka does not want to re-enter politics.  He is doing good with his consulting company. 

magpie's picture

Irrelevant, since the whole government is on summer vacation anyway. Perhaps the downgrade could be reason enough to return to work, but naaaahh.

Archimedes's picture

Well if ....sorry I meant when France gets downgraded there won't be an EFSF or any other acronym for that matter! The Euro will be kaput.

j0nx's picture

Please. The German people are bigger apathetic pansies than the American people. There will be a lot of bluster and no action to back it up. Just as there is here in the states. All I hear is wah wah wah wah wah wah Charlie Brown teacher style.

Life of Illusion's picture



This is all structured by the FSB, G-7 to G-20 policy.


mess nonster's picture

Say goodbye to the EU, say hello to the Holy Roman Empire. If Germany is on the hook for the bad debts of Europe, then Germany gets to call the shots for everthing between Paris and Budapest. Also watch for the only solvent European institution to assert itself politically for the first time since Napoleon- the Papacy.

falak pema's picture

Reviewing Plan A and Plan B :

Whatever happens in this New NWO play, with an economically declining USA and a realigned EU now playing the high stakes of continental union under FORCEPS, under the stress of mega soveregn debt, there is also a Plan B if this Plan A doesn't work.

Plan B which will be decided before 2013, when Merkel's election comes into play, and by then the world situation will have gotten clearer and darker, if you know what I mean; clearer in terms of who has reached the bottom first and darker in terms of its geopolitical consequences. In 2013, just taking it as a planning horizon for argument's sake, Germany can decide if it wants to opt out or not from 'Club Med' Euro depending on its interim evolution. As by then, the road down of Euro sovereign debt will have either been stopped by a political new order that BANS all HF DERIVATIVE  plays and open speculative positions, as well as taxes the hell out of financial transactions, to calm all speculative fast moving action in their money. If this scenario is feasible in an interlinked global financial market, it being totally unpalatable to Anglo saxon finance, and its acolytes world wide; it will allow the command social economy of the world to decouple from the Anglo saxon economy. By this I mean : EU/China/Russia/Brazil/India/Japan.

All aligned against basically USD reserve currency domination.

That seems to be the game plan A today of the Eurozone put. Plus its hidden backers all hidden behind political screens. If it doesn't work Germany just says ciao to Euro zone and hoists its own DM zone for northern europe. This being plan B and we are back to a two currency Europe.

Voila plan A and plan B for the coming two years in EU economy. Lets see if plan A is total BS and unsustainable as all ZH, as the US markets also,  think and  say.

We should find out very fast if the Bundestat votes in Plan A, then the markets will give their implacable verdict in the months to come.

But for now all of the Eu countries have received instructions to reduce drastically government spending and increase FAST tax revenues, to reduce overall debt/GDP ratio before 2013 deadline, so important for Merkel and Germany.$

As I type  I read the mayhem in the market that this incredible news has undoubtedly provoked; we see who is stronger between the political knobs and the market : Its the market. 

Plan A seems dead the very minute that Merkel announced it between two deep breaths. Wow wow ! does the world move fast!

Caviar Emptor's picture

Germany's own position is not as solid as the hype. High debt/GDP (about the same as France), huge entitlements, ageing population (far worse than US), big energy import dependence. 

SheepDog-One's picture

Right, Germany itself is no great shakes lately with their GDP also plummeting, declining population no ones having kids, Germany is old folks.

HedgetBedgadget's picture

As a young European from the East, I can say that I've met a lot of young and beautiful German ladies.

I don't think that Germany is that full of old people.

Plus they make and will make better engineers that you Americanz will, until the end of times.

All your military hardware is based on German Nazi designs. And that is all that really impresses the rest of the world.

Their machinery is superb quality compared to your  shit.

I believe Germany has a future, and America probably has a future, and India and China and South America and Russia, all have a future if we can work together.

Seeing how you Americanz fucked up the financial system and still blame the Europeans for their "socialism" and some demonic European Rothschildian conspiracy to enslave the Americanz, I highly doubt it that this future will become reality. Sad thing really.

When you Americanz in your thirst for oil, do Israel's bidding and attack Iran, and thus cause WWIII, I hope you guys will choke with all your gold while getting the planet nuked to the stone age.

papaswamp's picture

Be smart Germany....you have finally recovered from absorbing your brother (DDR) from under the USSR. You cannot save the whole of Europe...they will live off you like a parasite until you become too ill to survive.

theprofromdover's picture

Am I too suspicious in thinking France made the phonecall herself for a downgrade, not because she isn't bust, but because she can cry foul, but still get out of the bail-out funding and leave it all to Allemagne?

magpie's picture

My conspiracy sense tingles and tells me it was the plan all along to have every EMU member downgraded and leave the EFSF as the sole AAA contender (of course completely undeserved) on the continent.

slewie the pi-rat's picture

i think it will be great fun for germany to have an election after scrrrrewing this pooch

right after italy's? 

Franken_Stein's picture


Career suicide ?


A-hahahahha !


She did exactly what her overlords from the Bilderberg group instructed her to do.

After  2 consecutive chancelleries, she doesn't want a 3rd term anyway.


Peer Steinbrück is already in the wings, after he attended this year's Bilderberg meeting in St. Moritz, as can be seen on video here:




You know who also attended ?

Rick Perry, Governor of Texas.


And oh, surprise, surprise, he recently announced his plans to run for president in 29012.







Man Tyler, you sound like a MSM talking head here.

No background research on your part.

But that would be your journalistic duty.

And don't come me with that baloney of "conspiracy theories" !


I'm too old for this cat an mouse game.


Get a grip and inform yourelf about the machinations of geopolitics please.


George Soros = György Schwartz

Rothschild front man and Quantum funds founder from Hungary.

Financier of NGOs and Open Society front groups to de-stabilize and infiltrate sovereign nations like Russia and Serbia in order to gain access to Russias vast natural resources.


Same applies to Serbia.


Zoran Djindjic was killed by Serbian defenders of national sovereignty.


Timoshenko in Ukraine and the orange revolution.

Who financed it ?

She is also a Rothschild front girl and billionaire.


Same applies to Georgia and Shaakashvili and the rose revolution.

You never asked yourrself who financed all this shit ?




You never asked yourself where all these Russian oligarchs after the downfall of the Soviet union all of a sudden got their billions from ?


Putin realized that Russia was in danger under a weak Yeltzin and struck back.


Chodorkovsky - done.

Jegor Gaidar - done

Litvinenko - done

Berezovskij - done

Jushchenko - almost done


The Russian bear struck back.

The KGB struck back.


It's a war against the Rothschilds, and nothing else.


HedgetBedgadget's picture

I think you are right mostly. But these guys can't actually see what's happening. Probably Russia and China will actually do God's work in the future, as in their armies will invade and destroy the Western World, due to their decadence and nihilism.

Somehow USA and some countries from Western Europe (UK/France and Scandinavians) will fuck up that bad in the near future, and in need of energy and mineral resources, will cause WWIII to start in an attempt to rob the natural resources of Russia and Central Asia. And that will prompt Russia and China to ally themselves and defend those natural resources.

Sad, that we human preffer battle instead of diplomacy to solve our problems.


GoldBricker's picture

Thanks, Frank. My earlier post was unnecessary considering that you covered all the bases.

I would tell you to read the paper "Occult Technology of Power", but I suspect you know all that already.

swissaustrian's picture

She won´t be reelected anyway.

Bilderberg already selected social democrat Peer Steinbrück as her successor. Steinbrück was head of the ministry of finance in Germany during the 2008 collapse.

slaughterer's picture

Steinbrück is perfect for the job: he will hunt down tax evaders and make every last German--whether rich or poor--pay through the nose for the ESFS.      This, while appealing to the values of hard-work and application through his personality, to boost German productivity (i.e. enslavement to the economic machine). 

Mister Ponzi's picture

In other countries, there is a lot of resistance against the EFSF extension, too. The parliament speaker in Slovakia even called for preparing to abandon the euro...


falak pema's picture

Well, this news should make RM very happy. Unlimited days of puts on the Eurozone Ponzi!!

I am betting RM will buy the Eiffel tower one day.

sudzee's picture

OT: Stealth taxpayer bailout of BofA begins:


EscapeKey's picture

I'm sure they got a great price for them.