Why The Richmond Fed Better Not Be A Harbinger Of Non-Farm Payrolls To Come

Tyler Durden's picture


The chart below, which compares the change in the Richmond Fed and the Non-Farm Payrolls print, is self-explanatory. Of course, if we are indeed about to get a -400,000 NFP print, then the prayers of all those newsletter sellers whose only "thesis" is more easing, are about to be answered.

h/t Brad

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Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:21 | 2645516 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

July F=MC easing already leaked yesterday. 

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:22 | 2645517 veyron
veyron's picture

While the F=MC may be easing, the FOMC has no plans to ease.


Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:29 | 2645552 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Between Apple and the Fed for the next few days.

As usual, the worse the economic data, the better the market will do.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:35 | 2645569 idea_hamster
idea_hamster's picture

F=ma, !=mc.

F*0*M*C = 0, so maybe that's been the message all along:  It's not an acronym where O=Open; it's math, with a zero:  The Federal Zero Market Committee.

Sure connects some dots....

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:43 | 2645593 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture


We are all going to die...

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:44 | 2645605 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

on a long enough timeline...............oh never mind

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:54 | 2645647 Yikes
Yikes's picture

Time for Goldman to come out with another GDP revision.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 12:16 | 2645766 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

It's simple.

After perusing American Thinker this morning...

I am now convinced that the President's Communist beliefs are the real cause of the velocity of money having continually slowed, despite all of Bernanke's shenanigans.

The Richmond Fed index is just showing us that -indeed- the velocity has slowed and looks to continue to do so unless fundamental change takes place (i.e., a reversion to real capitalism). 


Tue, 07/24/2012 - 12:36 | 2645879 Mark Noonan
Mark Noonan's picture

Dying wouldn't be so bad - at least the Mrs would get the insurance...but losing the job, that could be a bit of a problem...

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 14:02 | 2646255 Silver Bully
Silver Bully's picture

'Dying wouldn't be so bad - at least the Mrs would get the insurance...but losing the job, that could be a bit of a problem...'

Load 16 tons and what do you get, Another day older and deeper in debt,

St. Peter don't you call me cuz I can't go, I owe my soul to the company store . . .


Tue, 07/24/2012 - 22:02 | 2647781 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

And a long way to go and a short time to get there...

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 12:15 | 2645768 patience...
patience...'s picture

The "Story of O" I like it.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:40 | 2645584 Tippoo Sultan
Tippoo Sultan's picture

Perhaps not an NFP print of - 400,000, but a negative number appears to be a foregone conclusion, if the historic correlation is used as a predictor.

Minus 150,000 to - 200,000 will be ample "cause" for Bernanke to issue forth several hundreds of billions in fresh intaglio scrip.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:58 | 2645631 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

I'm seeing a decoupling of NFP from the Richmond Fed coming and going starting about the middle of 2010.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 16:16 | 2646816 SDShack
SDShack's picture

Actually you seem to be correct Cabot. The Richmond Fed moving average trend line has been negative since 09, but the NFP momentum has essentially been flat. The real question is the Richmond Fed number acting as a forward looking indicator, or has the BLS simply corrupted the NFP so much to make any correlation meaningless. We will know in a few days.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 12:23 | 2645809 MillionDollarBoner_
MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

...so that's bearish for PMs, right?

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 12:31 | 2645845 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

"make it so"-JPM

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 12:49 | 2645947 Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

I would think that would also be the end of Obama's campaign. How the hell could he ever recover from that politicially?

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:35 | 2645565 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

F=MC, is that the equation for QE? Fucked is equal to Much Currency?

Or rather: fucke equals too much currency.....

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:37 | 2645578 idea_hamster
idea_hamster's picture

Well, f=force, m=mass, and c=the speed of light.

Perhaps it means that the force of QE = the mass of money printed times 186000mps.


Tue, 07/24/2012 - 13:46 | 2646192 fnordfnordfnord
fnordfnordfnord's picture

Hey, you just gave me a great idea for a new hypothesis. The Monetary Theory of Relativity. Who knows, we may find monetary parallels for both General and Special Relativity. This could be a groundbreaking new paradigm for economics! It could, perhaps even lead to stable solutions for (bear with me) infinite monetary inflation! Or even, gasp, infinite infinite monetary inflation! Climb back from down from those ledges; economics may no-longer be known as the "dismal science", but, rather, our savior! Or, I could be wrong, and we're all doomed, one-fifth of us will starve, and the rest of us will have to eat beans (except the 1%, of course). But never-mind that! All we need now are some big fat research grants. How can you afford to pass on this? You can't!

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 16:17 | 2646821 SDShack
SDShack's picture

How does the Black Hole of Debt factor into this?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 09:50 | 2648943 fnordfnordfnord
fnordfnordfnord's picture

Black holes might be problematic!

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:40 | 2645586 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

The equation goes something like- S(savers)+B(bend over)-P(pigmen)+OE(obama election)-FD(fuck the dollar)= Fuck You Ben Bernanke

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:51 | 2645627 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture


Tue, 07/24/2012 - 12:39 | 2645880 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

F= m x a


And the Force may not be with us on this one.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:22 | 2645523 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

...because if it is, Potter's gonna have to put in a slightly larger buy order at 10:30 every morning.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:23 | 2645525 zero19451945
zero19451945's picture

Not a chance. They can make the payroll report say whatever they want.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 12:04 | 2645700 Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

Sad but true. It might take another 4 months for NFP to catch up just this once...

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:23 | 2645529 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture


Tue, 07/24/2012 - 13:01 | 2646002 Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

Agreed. The correlation is high but not perfect. Seems we'll get a negative jobs print but not likely to be -400k.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:24 | 2645531 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Between this and PMI the data is crystal clear.

Ole Benny and friends are going to be way too late this time.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:28 | 2645547 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

As usual.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:24 | 2645532 darteaus
darteaus's picture

It's almost time for Barack Chavez to shriek, "To the barricades!!"

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:25 | 2645539 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Thank you Ben for decoupling the real economy from the stock market (which is now nothing more than a betting game on your next statement).

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:27 | 2645540 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Fed is fucked; QEIII will destroy purchasing power globally.  

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:29 | 2645553 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@the not so mighty


DOW 20,000 - MOGAS $5/gal.  Something's gotta give. 

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:35 | 2645573 OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

Thats why the next easing will not be announced.

It will be behind the scene.

Besides, who says the easing has stopped? Where do you think Washington is getting all the money to continue the giveaways to all the gimme, gimme, gimmes?

With 50% of the population receiving fed aid in one form or another, from the ever diminishing productive half.

The concrete wall is approaching ever closer.  

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:26 | 2645541 Sutton
Sutton's picture

Trojan Horse-destroy it from the inside

Thanks white libs for making the conman dictator

We're doomed

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:36 | 2645574 pods
pods's picture

I won't disagree that we are doomed, but it has little to do with who resides in the white house.


Tue, 07/24/2012 - 12:24 | 2645813 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

It's going to be really funny if Mitt gets the vote and nothing changes for another 4 years. Probably nobody will notice, 4 years is a long time.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 12:28 | 2645831 Divine Wind
Divine Wind's picture



The current occupant might not be single handedly responsible for our doom, but he sure as hell has accelerated things exponentially.

This financial charade could have continued for another decade if POTUS had not gotten greedy.

Remember: Physics theory says that as you approach the speed of light things begin to bend inward.



Tue, 07/24/2012 - 13:49 | 2646202 fnordfnordfnord
fnordfnordfnord's picture

Blue team, red team, he said, she said. When will you proles ever learn?

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 15:32 | 2646610 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture


there is no such thing as a straight line in the universe

parallel lines eventually meet

the shortest distance between two points is a curve, not a line

time is a curve

time is an illusion


Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:28 | 2645545 HD
HD's picture

How is keeping the S&P at 1400 for a few more weeks going to create any more Mcjobs exactly?

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:33 | 2645555 fuu
fuu's picture

Fucking magic.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:35 | 2645570 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Wingardium Leviosa

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:44 | 2645601 RSloane
RSloane's picture


Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:36 | 2645575 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Because if we print enough money and give it to the Banksters, they will hire us to clean their pools.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 11:42 | 2645590 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

You just don't understand the wonderfulness of the current shitshow

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