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Is This Why We Are Rallying Today?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As we noted last week, the level that would represent the same size drop as triggered globally coordinated central bank easing in November of last year, is around 1285 and sure enough we got close (1287) in futures before today's rally began...is it really this easy?

 

or is this what we should expect?

 

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Mon, 05/21/2012 - 11:56 | 2447819 FlyoverCountryS...
FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture

TWIST, baby, twist!

the GLORY OF OBAMA must not be endangered by bad Wall Street news, at least until after election day!

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 11:58 | 2447841 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

I think we can expect scenario #2.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:01 | 2447849 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Quit bitching...

Every day that presents me another opportunity to STACK MORE is a good day in my estimation...

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:14 | 2447902 malikai
malikai's picture

DOW 3,6000,000,000,000!

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:02 | 2447851 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Two bill auctions today. Auctions every day this week except Friday.

So, buy the open sell the close again??

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:10 | 2447884 HarryM
HarryM's picture

I called it Friday - G8 + Obama = Monday Rally

They would have looked like total Bafoons otherwise.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:36 | 2447966 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Did you forget the FB divisor in that equation? 

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 11:56 | 2447822 vmromk
vmromk's picture

I wish Bernanake would just go FUCK himself already.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:00 | 2447846 DogSlime
DogSlime's picture

He doesn't have time - too busy fucking almost everyone on the planet (99%) whilst simultaneously felating the elite (1%).

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:02 | 2447852 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

He did, now his Ctrl + P keys are all sticky...

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:03 | 2447857 fightthepower
fightthepower's picture

Fuck you Bernanke!

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 13:53 | 2448199 mt paul
mt paul's picture

go facebook himself...

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 11:56 | 2447823 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

QE4 rumors swirling around... The last two weeks showed major economic global contractions and this is bullish for the ponzi stock markets 

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 11:56 | 2447827 TrainWreck1
TrainWreck1's picture

Global Easing smacks of gently dilating ones posterior.

to wit, BOHICA

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 11:57 | 2447828 Chappy
Chappy's picture

So we should expect the market to go up or down from here.  Got it!

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 11:58 | 2447840 beaker
beaker's picture

Yes.  It will fluctuate, even.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:00 | 2447848 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

It may move in a sideways range or it won't

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:03 | 2447856 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Heard on CNBC...

~~~

"I'd say there is about a 50-50 chance that the markets will be up or down in the next 6 months"

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:09 | 2447880 Dixie Rect
Dixie Rect's picture

Love the wisdom of CNBS

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:09 | 2447882 willien1derland
willien1derland's picture

I will attribute this quote to the infamous Bob Pisani

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:54 | 2448010 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

pisani's opinion is that of the whoevers xxxx is in his mouth

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:14 | 2447901 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

1285 or so is the 200 dma, the 38% fib level of the ramp from last years lows and level of the first rebound in August. It will take a good effort to go below it but there is no lack of bad news to power things lower. I'm guessing it won't happen on the first try, but what do I know.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:55 | 2448013 clones2
clones2's picture

Been looking at the same thing... Looks like an early week bounce perhaps towards the 9 or 10 dma before a holiday weekend. gl

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 13:52 | 2448197 kianator
kianator's picture

Technicals are on the "floor" -- Least path of resistance is upwards until overhead resitance is meet.  Volume will likely be on the low side.  Who wants to sell or short when technicals are this oversold.  

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 11:57 | 2447831 The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

I can't make heads or tails of it.  It's harder for the shorts.  Ignorance is bliss (longs)

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 11:57 | 2447836 Cheeky Bitch
Cheeky Bitch's picture

Occam's Razor...

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 11:58 | 2447838 Christoph830
Christoph830's picture

Beat me to it!

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 11:58 | 2447843 bigwavedave
bigwavedave's picture

no. we go up because we cant go down everyday

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:30 | 2447948 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

...and the US Dollar. Is that "overbought"?

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:56 | 2448016 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

No

it's undersold. Actually it's over-printed. But then, it's over-used. Then again, it's over-valued.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 11:59 | 2447845 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Uh

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 11:59 | 2447847 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

If this push fails..... I expect panic to set in.  Sugar Longs will know they are on their own.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:01 | 2447850 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Anyday an article will come out of the Wall Street Journal stating the Fed is open to more easing probably to come out of the June Meeting.  The Central planners will not allow this to continue as they view it as only costing more if they wait.  Doing the right thing and letting the free market work is not even a thought of theirs.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:02 | 2447854 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

At this point I don't think the Obama team is manipulating the data to get re-elected.  The bankstas are doing everything they can, to get him re-electedn because if the other side gets in there is chance that Ctrl-P becomes Ctrl-A.  Personally I believe the chance of the other side doing meaningful Ctrl-A is close to 0 but the banksters only like to take chances if someone else's money is on the line.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:05 | 2447864 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Obama is incapable of even manipulating a penis in his mouth...

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:07 | 2447871 navy62802
navy62802's picture

Blankfein and Dimon beg to differ.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 14:21 | 2448297 malikai
malikai's picture

That's in his ass.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:03 | 2447858 sunaJ
sunaJ's picture

Yes, we can make as many S&P or Dow points as we like, I imagine.  It is a sham, but it is one that we are conditioned to fall for.  Markets are up, everything must be okay.  The rest of the world's economies will disagree as they have to contend with the consequences of easing.  One of these times, you will see a market-breaking action by one or more non-OECD central banks.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:04 | 2447862 ghostzapper
ghostzapper's picture

I continue to believe the market is still injected with an extremely high dose of QE hopium.  Spider around 1,000ish tells me people are not expecting QE.  Until then it's just a junkie crawling along the side of the road begging the dealer for more heroin. 

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:05 | 2447863 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I'll put 10 large on number 2.

Come on baby, momma needs a new pair of shoes.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:58 | 2448028 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Try duct tape it makes old pairs of shoes like new again.  The "new normal."

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 14:20 | 2448294 malikai
malikai's picture

Duct tape is too expensive. Try newspaper instead.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:07 | 2447869 AC_Doctor
AC_Doctor's picture

Binky Ben is definately in the top 1% of hangworthy individuals destroying the US of A...

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:07 | 2447870 Rock the Casbah
Rock the Casbah's picture

Shouldn't Au be rallying also?

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:07 | 2447872 ghostzapper
ghostzapper's picture

And I believe everything ZH says about gold from a fundamental standpoint.  But, that pig looks like it has a date with 1,200ish.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:17 | 2447905 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Chuck Berry should get royalties on the Benny Twist

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:46 | 2447981 LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

So should Boris Pickett and the song Monster mash. Whatever happened to the Transylvania twist is a copyrighted item

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:17 | 2447910 Charlie
Charlie's picture

I was just thinking of loading up on shares of mining companies.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:19 | 2447916 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

How many more iterations of "let's pump the markets" can be played?

 

So much has to go right including a falling USD (means Euro must rise) for this to happen.

 

Elliott wave count says bearish SP500  http://bullandbearmash.com/index/sp-500/hourly/

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:50 | 2447999 IMACOINNUT
IMACOINNUT's picture

Warning  --- the link below by SDR11 " boingboing" caused my computer to freeze up.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:19 | 2447917 SDRII
SDRII's picture

Meanwhile in Japan: Water supply in prefectures neighboring Tokyo found contaminated

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012-05/19/c_131598630.htm

 

Pakistan to test nuke capable missle while Obama snubs Zadari

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/US-Pakistan-rift-hits-NATO-s...

http://www.rt.com/news/pakistan-nuclear-missile-test-677/


And US lifting propoganda restrictions?

Buzzfeed's Michael Hastings reports on a revision to the Smith-Mundt Act of 1948 and Foreign Relations Authorization Act in 1987, which prohibit the use of government disinformation and propaganda campaigns within the USA. The amendment, sponsored by Rep. Mac Thornberry from Texas and Rep. Adam Smith from Washington State, would allow the US government to knowingly tell lies to its people in order to promote the government's own policies.

http://boingboing.net/2012/05/21/proposed-us-law-makes-domestic.html


Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:42 | 2447943 willien1derland
willien1derland's picture

Great Post - Propoganda Amendment is in  HR 4310 URL below - Amendment # 85 - this should be  consider treason -

http://rules.house.gov/Legislation/legislationDetails.aspx?NewsID=828

 

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:19 | 2447918 willien1derland
willien1derland's picture

Why would the Fed stop now - with a balance sheet stuffed with all sorts of ill gotten 'investments' it makes absolutely NO rational sense...If you play the game & consider the ratonal move Bernacke may allow some deterioration but the rational play is to double down...and he will along with the other Central Banks - I am calling a similar move to last November when a concerted set of the usual suspects - Bank of Canada, ECB, Japan, Switzerland, UK, & US make a move to prime the world banking pumps once again...The Germans can pitch a fit as much as they like but the Keysian tidal wave that stands before them will dwarf their resources - Deal with it Ms. Merkel INFLATION is on its way - da bankers will push the envelope again & our politicians will allow it - God save us from the aftermath, but the trend is enforce & the alternative of not adding liquidity is far worse because there is no plan in place to promote honesty & integirty - Vive CTRL+P!

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:21 | 2447927 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

Just get the feeling it is going to be a ram the Shorts for the next few days.  Right now I am out just watching.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:28 | 2447941 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

Was anyone, besides naked shorters, able to short Facebook today?  JPM could have made up that entire $2 billion loss from a few weeks ago!!!

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:30 | 2447950 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Agreed.  Balance upside / downside risk at best.  I closed out last week after shorting at 1402.  It would be cool if a lot of "great" news came out and we got a deep retracement.  These days I'll only consider a short after all the good news is baked in.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:28 | 2447939 erheault
erheault's picture

Most of the market moves are now due to flash trading, the small investors have for the most part grabbed their shorts and ran it is hard to out race a computer program.

the end results of all of this will be very interesting to watch, meanwhile CYA is the best move.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:31 | 2447953 OldE_Ant
OldE_Ant's picture

My take on this is that the dollar reversal was planned to do the following:

1)  Put pressure on commodities so as to keep a lid on inflation.  The bonus is any in the know insiders and commodity shorts make a killing.  The bonus is that drops in gold/silver might be enough to scare holders into selling (particularly if they have mounting losses or dwindling profits).

2)  Try to fein a drop people have been looking for so the 'well trained buy the dippers' will come in to buy long (since many missed the ride up).  All this to suck any money looking to go long back into the market.

3)  Set up anyone looking to short the Euro (or anyone long the dollar - aka all cash hoarders) for the coming dollar drop.

4)  Confirm the sell in May and go away so they can set up the massive summer and fall coordinated world QE rally to go with the dollar drop, bonus here is all people still hoarding cash, and bondholders get screwed.  Any new longs get rewarded yet again and can continue to live in ignorant bliss.   By then they will have most commodity markets in vice grips to keep inflation 'targetted' so people don't see gold/silver/oil/gas as a rewarding way to play inflation.

To all stackers we may get the mother of all opportunities here in the next 3 months, be ready!   And if anyone sees any companies that might survive this turmoil during the same time frame one may get an opportunity to add to positions, or create new ones.

All hail the Ponz!

OldE

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:33 | 2447956 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Sucker rally.  The world makets are broken.  Trade cautiously with conservative stops.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:35 | 2447961 juggalo1
juggalo1's picture

If the market is rallying on rumors of QEx then why are your precious precious metals still falling?  Riddle me that silver bears?

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 13:19 | 2448089 Bohm Squad
Bohm Squad's picture

Biggest gains on market caps above $1 Billion are all resource companies (gold and silver) per google finance.  Weird, no?  Resource companies up 7% to 11%...silver down 1.3% after one large AM trade, then flat.  Gold flat.  Doesn't look very bearish to me.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 06:24 | 2450176 IrritableBowels
IrritableBowels's picture

Bears or Bulls? Hmmmm?

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:37 | 2447968 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Yes, oversold bounce, could last for a few days, good news might move it higher. But at some point soon, what a short this market will be.

So far we are having trouble leaping over 1,600 in gold. Patience.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 13:05 | 2448046 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

This does smell like a bear market, especially when you look at aggregate FY 2013 earnings estimates. That said, I'm going to exercise a huge amount of patience. Don't chase it down.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 12:45 | 2447990 Catch-22
Catch-22's picture

 

SPX 1180 in two weeks... then a bounce into the election.

Only a slight bounce (rally will not breach the previous top @ 1422)... they wouldn't want to look like they are manipulating things.

IMHO

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 16:05 | 2448645 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

I wouldn't be that bearish, lest you get bruised by the bulls.  I'll bet it's 1250-1270 before it's 1180.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 16:08 | 2448658 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

(1350-1370)

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 13:02 | 2448039 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Hey?!  Pull my finger!

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 13:09 | 2448051 CryingBear
CryingBear's picture

ACTUALLY IT JUST BOUNCED OFF THE 300 DMA BUT CANT SEEM TO GET PAST 150DMA SO NEXT STOP IS 128 ON SPY

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 13:12 | 2448068 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Frankly, my dear, I don't give a rat's ass why it is rallying.  But if one of your fearless writers could tell me how high and how long... now that would be of some use.

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 13:58 | 2448222 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

http://flic.kr/p/bnbsG5

ivars & goldpricemodel combined chart showing current drop in Dow (generated quite some time ago, too)

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 14:04 | 2448239 theTribster
theTribster's picture

Fuck You Bernanke!

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 14:13 | 2448258 zebrasquid
zebrasquid's picture

Marc Faber says market is bottoming and S&P 500 will go back to 1370-1400 but not new highs.  Says to sell into that rally.

Gold has or is bottoming here (and he's been saying that gold continued to be in a correction phase for many months now, so this is meaningful call for him).  Of course, he always likes gold for the

long haul.

 

Faber is probably right 80% of the time.  (and I am a long time subscriber to his letter -  as in more than 10 years).

Mon, 05/21/2012 - 14:55 | 2448415 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

That would be an excellent retracement. Hope it makes it that far.

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