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Why You Shouldn't Trust Tomorrow's BLS Number
While much has been written on the revisions, adjustments, and just-plain-guesses that make up the BLS' non-farm-payroll data, the frustration levels are building in the Bay Area as Charles Biderman provides the most in-depth discussion of why we need a better press corps. The simple truth, as Charles notes, is that even the BLS doesn't believe its own hype (in its footnotes) and while mainstream media and talking heads will quote the unemployment rate or NFP change as if it was transcribed by the hand of God, it is in fact an extremely ill-formed, very narrow survey with such huge statistical noise as to be entirely useless. However, while every human should watch this brief clip before buying that 100-lot ES milliseconds after the release tomorrow, we suspect, as usual, it will be algos-gone-wild no matter how many sigma we beat or miss.
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HOPE AND CHANGE!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inZUDMGJsKo&feature=related
The entire movie can be found here.
Yet I should buy TIPS?!?
the real bad news is that assholes trade the erroneous data, knowingly.
it's all self-fulfilling.. Just like trend lines on charts..
Why I shouldn't believe the US govt's B[L]S numbers...
Hmmm.
Oh, oh, oh, I know this one!
....because this is the same gov't that 'tells the truth' [nudge, nudge, wink, wink] about terrorists, the mortgage backed securities ponzi scheme, Saddam's 'nookular' weapons, Iran's nuclear weapons, when-pigs-fly-flu, Gulf of Mexico oil spill and the necessity of current wars of conquest and imperialism.
That's why.
http://www.examiner.com/article/us-lies-yes-dead-on-lies-about-war-iraq-afghanistan-continues-crimes-against-humanity
The BLS is dependent upon a Technical Note that relieves them of responsibility and they do take FB pre-IPO if offered.
Here's the link to the technical note. Like Biderman said, the note has been around forever.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm
How is farm payroll doing these days?
ex kids working on farm?
"Maggie's Farm"
I ain't gonna work on Maggie's farm no moreNo, I aint gonna work on Maggie's farm no more
Well, I wake up in the morning
Fold my hands and pray for rain
I got a head full of ideas
That are drivin' me insane
It's a shame the way she makes me scrub the floor
I ain't gonna work on Maggie's farm no more.
I ain't gonna work for Maggie's brother no more
No, I aint gonna work for Maggie's brother no more
Well, he hands you a nickel
He hands you a dime
He asks you with a grin
If you're havin' a good time
Then he fines you every time you slam the door
I ain't gonna work for Maggie's brother more.
I ain't gonna work for Maggie's pa no more
No, I aint gonna work for Maggie's pa no more
Well, he puts his cigar
Out in your face just for kicks
His bedroom window
It is made out of bricks
The National Guard stands around his door
Ah, I ain't gonna work for Maggie's pa no more.
I ain't gonna work for Maggie's ma no more
No, I ain't gonna work for Maggie's ma no more
Well, when she talks to all the servants
About man and God and law
Everybody says
She's the brains behind pa
She's sixty-eight, but she says she's twenty-four
I ain't gonna work for Maggie's ma no more.
I ain't gonna work on Maggie's farm no more
I aint gonna work on Maggie's farm no more
Well, I try my best
To be just like I am
But everybody wants you
To be just like them
They say sing while you slave and I just get bored
I ain't gonna work on Maggie's farm no more.
I don't need anymore reasons to not trust these asshats anymore! Their mere existence assures it.
Because I don't trust the current BLS numbers...?
if you do as Biderman tells, you surely lose money.
He was the idiot who told us all to get out of the stock market in June 2009 which I promptly ignored.
Sorry, Biderman said equity markets will go up.
This changed my mind about Biderman.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIFGfgKHrwU&feature=related
Thanks, nice to find a Peter video I havnt seen before.
Yeah funny I am just paying it forward....someone else put it on yesterday
why we never see Schiff mentioned on ZH.. any ideas?
He has been, just not that frequently.
Ba Ba Black sheep,
you enjoy being sheared ? now you start lying.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0Tu3tsn3QI
look at time 3:14 in this video. He is saying it was a bubble since April 2009..
you need to get your facts correct before you start bleating here.
3:50 in the video he says 'This market can go up until the bubble breaks!' I dont know what youre refering to here, he didnt say equities are going down or short the market at all! He's again just saying the data is BS!
He did not say short - but said to get out of the market in APRIL 2009. what more do you want ?
He made several "disgraceful" appearances during summer 2009 to repeat that BS.
Starting 3:14 on OCT 2009 - he accepts he has been wrong about stocks for past 5 months. what more do you want.
I can find other quotes also he made.
I guess all ZH also encouraged that - search for Biderman in ZH.
I never said Biderman was right about anything, stating that 'he has been wrong'...so what? All he did in your video was state the BLS numbers are BS and that the market bubble can go higher.
And also Ive never done anything in a market as someone else told me to do anyway, so its irrelevant to me.
No, he stated that he was wrong about the stock market for 5 months. ie he was wrong in his assessment that stocks will go down since April 2009. Also he says he was short right at the trough of stocks.
Also that comment - "All market bubbles can go high until it pops" is a useless comment. How long is long - 50 years, 10 years or 1 week ?
He and other likes you(including ZH) have been so wrong about stocks for 3 years and you still don't know what hit you.
I am not here to debate you - but to show how foolish it was to follow them. Now he may become correct again in a couple of months, but then a dead clock is
right twice a day.
Adios
Im Ok with being wrong about the stcok market for the last 3 years, as I've been right about the metals for 10!
The current money bubble will take about three to five years to play out. We are in year 3 plus 7 months. If Biderman did his homework he would know this. Year 4 will suck.
"He and other likes you(including ZH) have been so wrong about stocks for 3 years and you still don't know what hit you."
Bob Janjuah: "Markets Are So Rigged By Policy Makers That I Have No Meaningful Insights To Offer"Zerohedge- 2/20/12
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bob-janjuah-markets-are-so-rigged-policy-m...
Keep buyin', sucker...
Just don't expect a bailout or sympathy when it all comes crashing down upon your head on, or about, Jan 1, 2013.
Wow, learned alot here.
I mean, at some point, reality sets in here for folks even on Wall Street, right? (Oh wait, most of the trading is done by computers in the virtual world, I forgot).
The propoganda isn't intended to dupe the 10%, it's meant to dupe the 90%.
It does just that.
Even though the 90% cant buy stocks with their EBT cards, the propaganda does serve to keep them baffled with BS and comforted that they can safely consume more, for today at least.
get that consumer confidence up!
or ws that consumer comfort....
constipation
comments on this thread were moderately better than expected
It's the warm weather effect, to my understanding of what someone else told me.
DAVID STOCKMAN: It's True, The BLS Data Is Made Up - Business Insider http://read.bi/yabCJS
Bottom Line on Feb 7, 9:55 AM said:
@save_the_rustbelt:
Over 2 million unemployed longer than 6 months 3 years ago, now over 5 million in that boat. Folks there's the elephant in the room they are trying to hide.
Thumbs Up +122
Thumbs down - 2
NFP = Gov't work by Gov't employees.
Is it any wonder?
So basically, these numbers are used to move the sheep in one direction or another!
baaaaaaaa (nkofamerica)
So we know its just made up and not to pay attention to any number the propaganda machine puts out. But we can learn a bit about their intended direction of further easing or no easing. I think theyre going with 'no easing' myself, we'll see if thats true with a 'surprise big beat' tomorrow, which will of course signal the junkies arent getting a fix antime soon.
'We' all know, cuz we're smart - otherwise we wouldn't hang out on ZH for 'real' news... it's the sheeple that worry me. I watched an episode of nightly propaganda the other night and was truly horrified at what was fed to the DWTS crowd: Obummer in Afghansitan popping up two more years of occupation, a feature on what happens when you walk away from the valet (Bueller?) and fluff about how everyone's 401k is upUpUP! Meanwhile, I'm making shotgun shells and growing my own food because I can no longer afford the grocery. Go figure.
So it could be that things are way better than the data that they are putting out shows. Interesting
Youre saying they want to make things seem worse than what they really are?
Print will be 7.9%, book it.
howd you like to win a super cool cnbc baseball cap?
Only if signed by my idol Cramer<sarc> This week's number is crazy low in order to set up the "math" behind a drop in the unemployment rate. Next week, this number is going to be jacked up but the unemployment rate will stay at 7.9 for the month and then lowered. We will be around 6.8 by November with at least another 1 million jobs disappearing.
bad print = qe expectations = shoot into green
good print = shoot into green
happy scalping!
The next QE won't be called QE. The Fed is strategizing a new method for dumping money to the banksters. They are going to go underground till after the election. In the footnotes of the banksters financial reports, we will see nonsensical comments about how their balances have increase.
y= wealth from interest charged on war appropriations
Z= devaluation of money
X = Y + Z
What is X?
credit: gangland
The long term NFP chart is another disaster in the making: http://i49.tinypic.com/b3kk8w.png
Of course NFP will be a beat and the ES will test recent highs - of chrissake anyone using charts or heaven forbid some FLOW of funds analysis will get killed BUY NOW !
Just wondering when the QEasing the market junkies are craving for will be reflected by 'data'....tomorrow? Why knows what curve balls theyll throw.
Intellectually interesting, but you continue speaking of traders, Charles, as though a) they're human, and b) for those that are human, that they care about how the headline statistics are derived. Government economic data is propagandized, intentionally obscurantist and methodologically sloppy: we get it.
But now that's established, speaking pragmatically: talking about from an armchair is one thing, but actively trading in this environment is another; and quite honestly, the scandal of criminally shoddy data releases does not matter to the second guy. NFP +500k or -500k, the trader goes long or short - or both - and wins or loses. Or they can let "the scandal" so bewitch them they either a) decide not to trade at all; or b) make some entrenched self-righteous fundamental macro stand with their capital because "the statistics" are being mucked about with and end up getting their face ripped off.
So it's bad data, and maybe intentionally. This a widely-held position with significant basis in fact and there ought to be recourse to bring the BLS to account and enforce the use of an honest, transparent methodology. All well-and-good; but tomorrow at 0830ET, it means nothing.
BLS data to me is only an indicator of whether their course is set for more easing or no easing.
Unemployment below 8% by election day!
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20120503/D9UH39VO0.html
Simple - the BLS can publish any number they want the week before the election and revise it back up following the election.
"There are lies, damn lies, and BLS statistics"
It doesn't seem to matter what the news is, the market keeps incrementing up on lower and lower volume.
Just look at what we do know. We be fucked.
Our armed forces should have the potus, most of congres, and these
flippin bankers on death row. WTF?
Someone please send this article to Robert Bruschetta.
Most people realize the BLS numbers are garbage. Who cares, everyone trades on it.
Bucket of Lukewarm Spit
Man what a view he's got.
My bet is stocks start to rally here - I could be wrong but I am posiitoned as such for a long time.
I just LOVE this guy! No nonsense, straight-talking! Nothing esoteric about him!
The usual scenario of the Gold takedown the day prior to the BLS numbers release, this time by -$20 seems to indicate that the numbers can't be sufficiently massaged.
What if the number is bad, then should we trust it?
There will be a reason why it is 'bad'
Trust anything out of the US??? You are kidding.... Heard on radio recently that a visiting US slave thought the orange juice in the UK was 'too strong'....
uh maybe because it was ....just... orange juice... and no water or any other junk put in it...
over here orange juice is just that.....
Well maybe that's the only thing that is real... uh ,,,, maybe..??????
why worry soo much!!! Trade what ever number comes out, and use the accumulated profit for hard assets.
the BLS is that the bullshit department, oh wait they're all bs.